Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another poll records a drift back to the Coalition after the post-leadership spill blowout, along with strong support for quotas to boost female parliamentary representation in the Liberal Party.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, down from 54-46 a fortnight ago. We are told the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 37%, and Labor down one to 36% – we will have to await the full report later today for the minor party primary votes. UPDATE: Genuinely unusual results on this score, with One Nation slumping three points to 5% and the Greens up two to 12%. Full report here.

The poll also finds 61% support for female representation quotas for the Liberal Party (68% among Coalition voters), with 21% opposed; 37% supporting proposed government legislation to safeguard religious freedoms, with 26% opposed; and 82% supporting a federal anti-corruption body, with only 5% opposed. Also featured are Essential’s recurring questions on trust in institutions, which as usual find high levels of trust in police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank, but lower levels for trade unions, religious organisations, federal parliament, business groups and, especially, political parties.

Other polls of late that I have so far neglected to mention:

• A poll of the regional New South Wales seat of Hume finds Liberal member Angus Taylor leading 57-43, which represents a 3.2% swing to Labor. Both parties are well down on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election, with the Liberals on 41.8% (down 12.0%) and Labor on 26.9% (down 4.9%). This reflects both a 10.4% showing for One Nation and a 6.6% increase for “others” to 14.3%, with the Greens steady on 6.6%. The poll was conducted by ReachTEL for the Australia Institute from a sample of 690.

• Also from the Australia Institute comes a survey of 1449 respondents regarding recent royal commissions. This finds the one into the banking and finance industry to have the highest level of public awareness, followed in order by those into child sex abuse, trade unions and the Murray-Darling Basin. As the organisation no doubt hoped, the survey found the banking and finance industry inquiry was overwhelmingly perceived to have been more productive than the one into trade unions.

• A poll of Victorian state voting intention, conducted by ReachTEL a fortnight ago for the Bus Association of Victoria from a sample of 1008, found Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, and 42% to 40% on the primary vote.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,474 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. meher

    I know of an analogous case in ALP politics, not long ago – a candidate was put forward for preselection. Several women came forward and said that, if his preselection progressed, they would go public with complaints against him. They were prepared to let things lie whilst he was a private citizen; they were not prepared to see him in a position of power.

  2. …and, of course, most cases of sexual abuse do (almost necessarily) happen in ‘he said, she said’ circumstances, and thus get down to who makes the most credible witness.

  3. We will never know whether that right wing nut bag sexually assaulted her, as there will not be a trial where evidence can be tendered and a rule of evidence imposed. However, I could not believe it when Kavanagh played the god card. No, I thought just stop it, and then he went further, “my 10 year old daughter said we should all pray for the woman.” Seriously? I’d string him up just for that!

  4. William: “And a determination by the Republicans not to collect any.”

    Most def.

    But I can’t as yet see any glimmers that there is much in the way of further hard evidence to collect. What’s really needed is for someone to come forward who says that they were at a party, and saw both Kavanaugh and Blasey Ford there. Preferably another female witness.

    Please be clear that I’m not taking a pro-Kavanaugh position. I’m quite prepared to believe that he was the type of nasty young frat boy who would be prepared to make an attempted assault on a defenceless young girl. But at this stage, the only evidence is Blasey Ford’s allegations. Maybe that will end up being enough to stop his nomination, even though it presumably wouldn’t be enough to convict him in a trial.

  5. And I’m not saying she shouldn’t raise it now. The pending elevation to high office of someone who treated you in an inhumane way many years ago can definitely encourage people to come forward: eg, all those who claimed to be victims of Bill Clinton who came out of the woodwork in 1992.

    There are 3 women, possibly a fourth, yet the others have been prevented from presenting their case because of Republican control of the Senate. No need to keep saying ‘she’ as if there is only one alleged incident.

  6. I am gobsmacked! How can it be that, on the very day that I told the story about my liason dangereuse with an older man, when I was in my mid-teens, that PB would resurrect him, not from the grave but an archeological dig! 😯

  7. He is not stupid enough to lie under oath since it is a felony

    Relevantly:

    John Aravosis @aravosis
    Btw, note that the Mark Judge “affidavit under threat of perjury,” Kavanaugh told us about today under oath, is actually a statement signed by his lawyer with zero value in court. So Kavanaugh lied, again.

    twitter.com/aravosis/status/10454561401

  8. I also forgot to add its vital to remember Dr Ford wanted this all to be confidential not public. A fact Kavanaugh and the GOP kept hammering with their point about Dr Ford also being a victim of the Democrats political strategy.

  9. The GG not holding back on teh banksters

    An industry rotten to the core
    Editorial
    Kenneth Hayne’s report on the finance industry depicts a culture of rampant greed and regulators too pathetic to do anything.

    What a shame they aided and abetted the pollies and the policies which ensured the regulators were ‘too pathetic to do anything’.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/banking-royal-commission/banking-royal-commission-report-reveals-an-industry-rotten-to-the-core/news-story/fee40f0f7a87eaa1ffe6dba3c8eaeacd

  10. Kamala harris also caught Brett Kavanaugh in a lie. Her last question to him was whether he had watched Dr Ford’s testimony? ‘No I did not.’ he said. Quite categorically. Later, a Tweet was circulated from an Intern in the room with him as he waited to testify. It mentioned him watching Dr Ford give her testimony on TV as he waited.

    But the Republicans don’t care that he has lied. Twice. They just want their Supreme Court stooge.

  11. meher baba:

    [‘It’s just that I feel that what she has brought forward just doesn’t quite clinch it in terms of evidence. Maybe future witnesses will tip the scales.’]

    Please stop it, Ford being a compelling wtiness; Kavanagh, far less compelling, turning to Trump’s henchmen for guiidance.

  12. C@t, Seeing as today you were openly considering whether this person from your past may have sexually assaulted you, I’d ask William to delete that post, if I was you.

  13. Just in case you missed it C@t. I wanted to make sure you received my kudos for your brilliant afternoon strike! 🙂

    nath says:
    Friday, September 28, 2018 at 1:06 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, September 28, 2018 at 12:35 pm
    Collingwood. By 27 points. Simply because it’s Bill Shorten’s team.
    _________________________________
    My family have been Collingwood members and supporters for over a hundred years. So naturally C@t’s reference to them as ‘Bill Shorten’s team’ is like a scythe ripping through my stomach, intestines and abdomen. So congrats on finding my weak spot C@t. Well played.

  14. Cat

    That was not a lie. Kavanaugh said he planned to. Then missed the actual testimony.

    That would explain why he missed the fact the statement he kept relying on to say even Dr Fords friend refuted the allegation was the lawyer statement that the friend had apologised was released in her name.

  15. c@tmomma: “It’s mind-numbingly weird! Real Twilight Zone stuff! But there you go. That’s life also.”

    I apologise for bringing it all back. I should have let DTT’s assertion that “Girls in our Town” was a Peggy Seeger song go by outside the off stump.

  16. Bushfire Bill @ #3311 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 9:26 pm

    C@t, Seeing as today you were openly considering whether this person from your past may have sexually assaulted you, I’d ask William to delete that post, if I was you.

    No, you’re quite mistaken there. I suggested that he hadn’t and that I merely had stars in my eyes and absolutely went along with it all, while it lasted. 🙂

    …In contrast to the experience of Dr Ford.

  17. meher baba @ #3315 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 9:27 pm

    c@tmomma: “It’s mind-numbingly weird! Real Twilight Zone stuff! But there you go. That’s life also.”

    I apologise for bringing it all back. I should have let DTT’s assertion that “Girls in our Town” was a Peggy Seeger song go by outside the off stump.

    Not a problem. You weren’t to know. 🙂

  18. nath,
    Yes I saw it, however, I will allow you to perpetuate a similar burn on the Bunnies up here if you like. Just the once. 🙂


  19. Bushfire Bill says:
    Friday, September 28, 2018 at 9:26 pm

    C@t, Seeing as today you were openly considering whether this person from your past may have sexually assaulted you, I’d ask William to delete that post, if I was you.

    The way I read it, she had concluded it was seduction. I think your interpretation of her post underlines my point; there is a very fine line somewhere.

  20. Meher

    Please do not get me wrong. I though she was a credible witness and I am quite sure something happened. However knowing what 15 year old girls are like I think there is plenty she is hiding. One beer and 3 Vodkas and orange is more like it.

    The fact that here memory is so bad about the place and how she got home etc indicates she was drunk or high or both. She could not even say whose house it was. She may have had the vodkas BEFORE she got there. I can see it now – two giggly girls with their stolen (from parents) vodka mixed with orange juice drinking at the country club. Possibly they had parents like me who actually believed teenage daughter when she said she kept the Vodka bottle because it was pretty. Got a laugh at my expense a couple of Xmases ago.

    My thinking was that other than the FBI investigation stuff Kavanagh also came across as credible. He is clearly a smart guy and presumably he fully understands that should he lie to the Senate committee he would lose his position as a Judge that he already holds. He just will not be that stupid.

    So my guess is that neither are lying.

  21. Watching the funnies (Colbert, Meyers etc) cover the Testimonies. One recurring theme is that FOX said Ford was credible and bad for Trump!

    FOX!

    Then I come on here and read DTT’s fantasies.

  22. meher baba:

    [‘So is it definitely the right thing to do for her to bring it up now? Would she be doing so without strong encouragement from people who are concerned that Kavanaugh might undo Roe vs Wade?’]

    So, one knows where you’re coming from.

  23. ‘The fact that here memory is so bad about the place and how she got home etc indicates she was drunk or high or both’

    Or traumatised and upset and wanting to putting it out of her mind.

    The vodkas are in your imagination.

  24. 16-17
    An American 40 year old used the internet to entice a 16 year old Australian girl to go to the US for apparently consensual sex and got 35 years hard with the general approval of the MSM.

    I was hard pressed to know what the offence was let alone why it resulted in 35 years. what did I miss?

  25. The failure to follow and enforce existing rules

    Whilst the treasurer Borrison (as in bothersome) says he was focussed on further regulation to fix the problems

    In regard any failure to follow and enforce existing rules, where were ASIC and APRA?

    How many reports were made to them consistent with any failure to follow and enforce existing rules – and what was their response to complainants?

    In addressing further regulation to fix the problem, what information was considered by the treasurer?

    And did the matters considered by the treasurer identify that existing rules were not being followed and enforced – and if so where is the trail of correspondence to ASIC and APRA in follow up?

    Or was such a reference to ASIC and APRA deemed not necessary because new legislation was being considered to correct the absence of follow up and enforcement of the existing rules which were not being followed or enforced?

    And where is the evidence of such legislation – or any draft of such legislation – or any directive to Treasury or Attorneys’ General relating to the drafting of such legislation – legislation to force existing rules to be followed and enforced?

    And why the second step being correction of rules not being followed and enforced by (further) legislation?

    In the first instance we had rules not being followed or enforced?

    So why wasn’t this addressed?

    From whom was the treasurer taking his advice?

    From the banks, from his department, from ASIC and/or APRA and, if so, what did that advice contain?

    Were there direct complaints from members of the public, or were complaints and the follow up to those complaints in the hands of both ASIC and APRA considered?

    Where are the Minutes of meetings and contacts in regard the material which promoted a response of resorting to further legislation to address the problems?

    And why no question of rules not being followed and enforced?

    Because that is the start point – courtesy of complaints and the (invited) self reporting of our Financial Services providers, surely?

    The Emperor has no clothes

    The government is dysfunctional

  26. Oakeshott Country says:
    Friday, September 28, 2018 at 9:39 pm

    16-17
    An American 40 year old used the internet to entice a 16 year old Australian girl to go to the US far apparently consensual sex and got 35 years hard with the general approval of the MSM.

    I was hard pressed to know what the offence was let alone why it resulted in 35 years. what did I miss?

    _________________________

    The U.S feds don’t muck around, particularly when you are black. Still, it was against their laws, she being a minor, but 35 years, that’s just got to be for certain people surely.

  27. The fact that here memory is so bad about the place and how she got home etc indicates she was drunk or high or both. She could not even say whose house it was. She may have had the vodkas BEFORE she got there. I can see it now – two giggly girls with their stolen (from parents) vodka mixed with orange juice drinking at the country club. Possibly they had parents like me who actually believed teenage daughter when she said she kept the Vodka bottle because it was pretty. Got a laugh at my expense a couple of Xmases ago.

    Yep totally slut shaming. Dio is right.

  28. Yes Nath I suspect if he was white it would have been 2 years community service
    I assume the age of consent in the particular state was 17

  29. Oakeshott Country @ #3333 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 9:39 pm

    I was hard pressed to know what the offence was let alone why it resulted in 35 years. what did I miss?

    That he had been grooming the girl for a year or so before she turned 16, and did it across national and/or state borders. This was the offence for which he was jailed, rather than the sex itself.

  30. Oakeshott Country @ #3329 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 9:39 pm

    16-17
    An American 40 year old used the internet to entice a 16 year old Australian girl to go to the US for apparently consensual sex and got 35 years hard with the general approval of the MSM.

    I was hard pressed to know what the offence was let alone why it resulted in 35 years. what did I miss?

    Subterfuge. A different Age of Consent. The 2 weren’t even in the same country, initially, perhaps?

  31. Confessions @ #3334 Friday, September 28th, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    The fact that here memory is so bad about the place and how she got home etc indicates she was drunk or high or both. She could not even say whose house it was. She may have had the vodkas BEFORE she got there. I can see it now – two giggly girls with their stolen (from parents) vodka mixed with orange juice drinking at the country club. Possibly they had parents like me who actually believed teenage daughter when she said she kept the Vodka bottle because it was pretty. Got a laugh at my expense a couple of Xmases ago.

    Yep totally slut shaming. Dio is right.

    Let me guess? dtt?

  32. Player One
    That he had been grooming the girl for a year or so before she turned 16, and did it across national and/or state borders. This was the offence for which he was jailed, rather than the sex itself
    __________________________
    Yes, and the fact that these are Federal crimes is significant.

    Prisoners of the Federal system can no longer get parole, as of 1987, hence the U.S phrase ‘federally f****ed’.

    I learnt this from the brilliant show ‘Billions’ streaming on Stan.
    * I am not an agent or representative of Stan.

  33. Confesions

    HOW BLOODY DARE YOU

    I was likening her to my much loved daughter – even looks like her. At 15 many girls are silly and they get drunk.

    Not slut shaming in any way. I have said she was a credible witness but here were truck sized holes in her story. That should be obvious to anyone with a fragment of a brain which clearly you have not..

    You frankly appall me at your obtuseness.

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