Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Better numbers for the Coalition in the third Newspoll of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, but Labor is still well in the clear on voting intention.

This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.

UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. billie @ #785 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 4:11 pm

    Not all Australian residents can access internet at home because there is no internet coverage over vast areas of Australia that can listen to ABC radio

    Not really true. Satellite internet is available just about anywhere. Sure, the satellites capacity is limited (so there will eventually be issues once too many people connect) and the service is slow compared to other internet options – but it is easily fast enough for streaming audio or downloading podcasts.

  2. poroti says: Monday, September 24, 2018 at 4:34 pm

    phoenixRED

    Saw a doco/recreation re Raoul Nordling /Choltitz and the infamous Hitler phone call asking “Is Paris burning ? ” . Uncle Otto had a bit part in it and was described as ‘extremely cultured’ . His effort involved palming of nasty business re political prisoners to someone else.

    ****************************************

    I have read many different views on Dietrich von Choltitz and his thoughts on war crimes/Jews and saving/ wrecking Paris .

    General von Choltitz is quoted as saying in October 1944

    We all share the guilt. We went along with everything, and we half-took the Nazis seriously instead of saying “to hell with you and your stupid nonsense”. I misled my soldiers into believing this rubbish. I feel utterly ashamed of myself. Perhaps we bear even more guilt than these uneducated animals. (An apparent reference to Hitler and his supporting Nazi Party members.)

    http://www.historynet.com/dietrich-von-choltitz-saved-of-paris-from-destruction-during-world-war-ii.htm

  3. New Slogan Government

    John Smythe
    ‏ @Johnsmythe26
    31m31 minutes ago
    Replying to @Qldaah @JRWeaver55

    Responsible spending….now THAT’S a good 2 word slogan

  4. phoenixRED @ #780 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 4:06 pm

    Michael Avenatti‏Verified account @MichaelAvenatti

    Meet @butchgroves, the Head of Upper School at The Oakridge School in Arlington, TX. I have never met him before or communicated with him but here is his message to me earlier tonight. The parents of Oakridge must be so proud to have this man teaching their sons and daughters.

    Butch Groves

    You are a fucking douche bag. You lying piece of shit

    Hey, at least he spelled all the words correctly. Even ‘douche bag’, apparently.

    He almost got the punctuation correct, too.

  5. a r:

    But that’s one of the most redeeming aspects of U.S. politics, imo. Australian parties take the concept of party discipline/loyalty/solidarity way too far.

    How much worse would the U.S. be if the GOP had been able to use party discipline to force the dissenters into line when it came time to vote on, say, repealing Obamacare?

    How much shitty legislation could have been prevented here in Australia if dissenters within the Coalition had not just threatened to cross the floor but actually did so on legislation they disagreed with?

    With a bit less party discipline, I bet Dutton would be heading to the High Court by now.

    To an extent, I agree. We need a bit more bravery from our MPs when it comes to toeing the party line. But I think the US takes things too far in the other direction, to be point where it’s often a struggle for anything to get done.

    As with all checks and balances, what is great when your own side is in power can be pretty shitty when the other side gets in, and vice versa. To use a flip-side to your argument, how much good legislation may not have been passed here without strict party solidarity? Imagine the nightmare the Gillard minority government would have been if Labor MPs had been crossing the floor whenever they felt the urge. And in the US, think about how much trouble Obama had passing healthcare legislation and especially gun control measures even when the Democrats controlled congress.

    I think both sides could do with more of a happy medium. I’ve always been partial to a system here where MPs are allowed to cross the floor X amount of times per year or parliamentary term without repercussions. It lets them vote with their conscience and do as they feel best for their electorate and/or the country when need be, but also forces them to save that power for the times it really matters, and ensures party solidarity is still generally maintained most of the time.

  6. 25 years today since “The Winner is Sydney, Australia”.

    Interesting report seeing Ros Kelly, John Fahey and Bruce Baird and a summary of the immediate financial impact with the Australian dollar at 65c US and Dow Jones around 3,700 points.

  7. Nath,
    They won’t switch to “5G hubs” because it may well end up being more expensive than FTTH.
    5G isn’t a magic solution just like 4G wasn’t.
    Look how badly under provisioned the the wireless NBN is right now, because it is expensive.

  8. If you want to see how well a Party in Government operates without much discipline have a look at how the Tories are managing the Brexit negotiations.

  9. God only knows what Abetz finds funny. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the man demonstrate anything to even hint he has a sense of humor.

  10. Eric Abetz wants the new MD to end the “frolics masquerading as ‘comedy’”. I so want to see what an Eric Abetz-approved comedy show looks like.
    ____
    Erica IS a walking comedy!

  11. a r says: Monday, September 24, 2018 at 4:47 pm

    phoenixRED @ #780 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 4:06 pm

    Michael Avenatti‏Verified account @MichaelAvenatti

    Meet @butchgroves, the Head of Upper School at The Oakridge School in Arlington, TX. I have never met him before or communicated with him but here is his message to me earlier tonight. The parents of Oakridge must be so proud to have this man teaching their sons and daughters.

    Butch Groves

    You are a fucking douche bag. You lying piece of shit

    Hey, at least he spelled all the words correctly. Even ‘douch bag’, apparently.

    He almost got the punctuation correct, too.

    ***************************************************

    Like him or hate him ( I happen to like him as he reminds me of a bulldog lawyer who won something important to me ) Michael Avenatti has a GREAT NUMBER following on twitter and I dare say that this Butch Groves will regret the day he decided to abuse Avenatti and Groves school will feel the sting of the Avenatti fan club backlash when they start school in Texas tomorrow …..

  12. poroti says: Monday, September 24, 2018 at 4:54 pm

    phoenixRED

    Ty for that quote.

    ***********************************************

    I wonder Poroti, if someone will say a similar thing of Trump in future days ????? 🙂

  13. phoenixRED

    Nah.Electing Dubya the first time may have been a mistake but re-electing him showed the US electorate were ready for a Trump.

  14. Its the system not the voters..

    http://time.com/4354908/richard-dawkins-electoral-college/

    Richard Dawkins is a biologist and author…..
    If you ever had any doubts about how preposterously undemocratic the electoral college is, your doubts could surely not have survived the 2000 looney-tunes show in Florida. Florida had 25 electoral college seats up for grabs. The popular vote was a dead heat. It couldn’t have fitted more snugly within the statistical margin of error if it had tried. The total vote in Florida was about 6 million, and the largest estimate of victory for either George Bush or Al Gore put the margin at a paltry few hundred. Yet the rules said that all 25 Electoral College votes must go to one candidate or the other. The final decision was effectively made by the Supreme Court halting the recount but, given such an exactly tied dead heat, they might as well have tossed a coin.

  15. poroti says: Monday, September 24, 2018 at 5:09 pm

    phoenixRED

    Nah.Electing Dubya the first time may have been a mistake but re-electing him showed the US electorate were ready for a Trump.

    ***************************************************

    Trump – like the saying – He is so dumb, blondes tell jokes about him.

  16. poroti @ #818 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    Nah.Electing Dubya the first time may have been a mistake but re-electing him showed the US electorate were ready for a Trump.

    I’m hesitant to generalize based on Dubya. Because 9/11.

    Although he did show why the electoral college needed reform. And now the U.S. is paying, again, for not having done any.

  17. Political Parties will take an agenda to any election – and the public decide on the basis of that agenda (well, perhaps not, which is a problem).

    But today is today and tomorrow is tomorrow, so there are swings and roundabouts needing to be explained to retain credibility (and surely such deviance is not the whim of one individual, but the result of deliberations and a vote)

    In regards the ALP, as I understand, that agenda is formalized at National Conference (delayed because of the by-elections?), where positions are put and voted on.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but given this opportunity and then given a vote as to policy, as an endorsed Candidate you adhere to that policy?

    If you have fought the good fight on the floor, and lost on the vote the choice is not to stand as a candidate, surely?

    Otherwise endorse the Party Policy.

  18. a r says: Monday, September 24, 2018 at 5:23 pm

    poroti @ #818 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    Nah.Electing Dubya the first time may have been a mistake but re-electing him showed the US electorate were ready for a Trump.

    I’m hesitant to generalize based on Dubya. Because 9/11.

    ******************************************************

    Now watch this drive

    Words uttered by President George W. Bush to the media (on a golf course) after announcing his serious stance on global terrorism. Brought to light from Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11

    “I call upon all nations to do everything they can to stop these terrorist killers. Thank you. Now watch this drive.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QcsVpHW7Ao

  19. Poroti

    Yes one of the things that annoys me about the trump haters is that they seem to have forgotton
    GWB – elected twice
    Sarah Palin
    The panel of horrors that was the republican primary.

    Face it Trump is a SYMPTOM of a country where democracy is in its death throes. What happens next is unknown but I do not think it will be pretty.

  20. BW@4:51pm
    Party discipline: What about party discipline of OZ Libs. There is a lot of talk of crossing the floor. But they won’t vote against their party when in power.
    When MT was PM, IMO he should have introduced the NEG bill in HOR and see whether the malcontents had the guts to cross the floor. He chickened out and that is the end of his PMship. GC threatened quite a few times to cross the floor. But when push came to shove he did not go with his threat.

  21. The Drum tackling the Guthrie sacking. Worth watching, I think, unless you’re already so prejudiced against the ABC that you can’t take it.

  22. I think this is the comment of the day wrt the Guthrie sacking:

    Dan Ilić

    @danilic
    Mr. Squiggle should be the next ABC MD—he knows how to deal with a disgruntled board. #ABCspill

    😆

  23. From Herr Wiki:

    “Deontology is an ethical theory that uses rules to distinguish right from wrong. Deontology is often associated with philosopher Immanuel Kant. Kant believed that ethical actions follow universal moral laws, such as “Don’t lie. Don’t steal. Don’t cheat.”

  24. Face it Trump is a SYMPTOM of a country where democracy is in its death throes.

    I dont know about that.

    Sure, the political tummy is rumbling. But it rumbles both from the left and the right. The left rumblings (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Stacey Abrams… even Sanders) are not as shiny to the media as Trumps political grotesqueness.

    Trump is popular with Republicans but well behind in the polls (I think A rated pollsters are averaging around 38-52). This is a sign of troubled party. Not a dying democracy.

    The US have been in trouble before. McCarthyism comes to mind. So does GWB. But they did recently elect a youngish left leaning black man. Twice.

  25. Paddy Manning on the sacking:

    Given that Prime Minister Scott Morrison was advised last night, it is hard to believe ABC boss Michelle Guthrie’s shock dismissal this morning was not politically acceptable to the federal Coalition. If it was not already, the future of the ABC is now front and centre as an election issue. The headless organisation is in more danger than it’s been in decades – including when the hapless Jonathan Shier was briefly in charge. Then, the organisation’s chair was the highbrow arts supremo Donald McDonald, a close friend of the then prime minister, John Howard, and an old-fashioned conservative who understood his statutory obligations and stood up for the organisation. Now, the ABC has been weakened by frequent management turmoil, and is under constant attack from conservative media and the government itself. The current chair, businessman Justin Milne, a one-time business associate of former PM Malcolm Turnbull, is an unlikely bulwark against the troglodytes in the Coalition who would like to sell off the organisation or break it up. The ABC is in peril.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/24/2018/1537765628/guthrie-gone?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Monday%2024%20September%202018&utm_content=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Monday%2024%20September%202018+CID_ec32f301c34575fb823370d6f68be0ca&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20ON

  26. SK

    But they did recently elect a youngish left leaning black man. Twice.

    Who when push came to shove chose Wall St. over Main St. and was as enthusiastic as the usual US pres. when it came to bombing/invading/regime change .

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