Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Better numbers for the Coalition in the third Newspoll of Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, but Labor is still well in the clear on voting intention.

This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.

UPDATE: Further findings from the poll record 24% of respondents saying Scott Morrison has made them more likely to vote Coalition, 31% less likely and 36% no influence; and 46% nominating Morrison as the more “authentic” of the two leaders, compared with 31% for Shorten. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

993 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Asha Leu

    I am convinced the Democrats want Trump to serve out this full term. Pence has kept a relatively low profile (even for a VP), and could become an effective President for the Republicans if given the chance. And if his term started after January 20th 2019 he could potentially be President for almost ten years.

  2. Podcasts have completely transformed the way I listen to what used to be ‘radio’.

    Starting with downloading the mp3s available from BBC4 shows such as Melvyn Bragg’s In Our Time, a whole world of content is now available from both traditional media such as BBC, ABC etc and a new generation of shows made by amateurs or just experts in given fields who wouldn’t have previously had access to the technology and distribution networks.

    Some of my favourites include “History of Rome”, “Don’t Keep Your Day Job”, “Answer Me This”, “No Such Thing as a Fish” and “Settling the Score” which is a brilliant show that analyses classic film scores in depth

  3. Asha Leu says: Monday, September 24, 2018 at 2:58 pm

    Victoria:

    Oh, that may well be the case.

    Getting rid of Trump in favour of Pence, who would be savvy, sane, and experienced enough to get much of a far-right agenda through Congress, could actually be a lot worse.

    ********************************************************

    I think along with Trump – Robert Mueller may have as ‘persons of interest ‘ – Pence ( Flynn ) Ryan & McConnell ( foreign funds ) ……. all the way down the line of succession till it hits clean skin Jim Mattis

  5. If the dems don’t get the house say goodnight maybe forever, if they do, two years of committees and finding after finding, and then big presidential win in 2020. They need to be in control of redistricting or the Republic is all but gone.

  6. Rocket Rocket:

    I agree.

    The Democratics can’t just scrape through in 2020. To have a chance at getting anything done in the face of an obstructive Republican Congress and their own lack of Aussie-style party discipline, they not only need comfortable majorities in both houses, but they need to achieve the very difficult feat of retaining those majorities in the 2022 midterms.

    Their best route for achieving that would be to let Trump keep being Trump for the full four years, apply the blowtorch just enough to cripple Trump and the Republicans without getting the former replaced with boring, “safe” Pence, hope a solid primary contender emerges against Trump, and clean up on the basis of a collapsing Republican vote.

  7. Their best route for achieving that would be to let Trump keep being Trump for the full four years

    …and then the GOP dump him if they think they are heading for a wipeout in 2020. Then Trump spits the dummy and runs as an independent.

  8. My how things change.

    When conservatives supported Palestine

    Although the contemporary Republican Party is now viewed as largely synonymous with staunch Zionism, the American conservative movement once featured a decidedly pro-Arab faction. From the late 1940s and well into the heart of the 1960s, Arab nationalism was a mainstay within many right wing circles, and numerous mainstream conservative figureheads were explicitly pro-Palestine.

    https://mondoweiss.net/2018/09/conservatives-supported-palestine/

  9. Billie

    Well under NBN internet connections are scrappy on the NSW coast so god knows what they are like inland or in WA

    Thanks for your concern, but I am sitting here in WA with an FTTP connection that reliably delivers ~95MB/s downloads and ~35MB/s uploads 🙂

  10. The problem with podcasts is that the ABC charter expects the ABC to service all of Australia, in areas where internet connections are too slow or too patchy to waste bandwidth downloading podcasts.

    You don’t have good enough internet connections on NSW coast to download podcasts without driving into town and sitting in the library to use their connection

  12. Professor Au Pair Chief Justice Gaz.
    ‏ @garystark
    2h2 hours ago

    Professor Au Pair Chief Justice Gaz. Retweeted David Marler

    Fifield calling the shots? Or was he Rupert’s conduit to Shlomo?

  13. Jolyon good to hear you have reliable FTTP, I was thinking of areas like Turkey Creek rather than Denmark

    OK I am jealous because I will get HFC over clapped out Optus cable so I expect my internet connection to degrade even as I pay more

  14. Asha Leu @ #756 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    their own lack of Aussie-style party discipline

    But that’s one of the most redeeming aspects of U.S. politics, imo. Australian parties take the concept of party discipline/loyalty/solidarity way too far.

    How much worse would the U.S. be if the GOP had been able to use party discipline to force the dissenters into line when it came time to vote on, say, repealing Obamacare?

    How much shitty legislation could have been prevented here in Australia if dissenters within the Coalition had not just threatened to cross the floor but actually did so on legislation they disagreed with?

    With a bit less party discipline, I bet Dutton would be heading to the High Court by now.

    Simon² Katich® @ #757 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    Then Trump spits the dummy and runs as an independent.

    He won’t do (the first part of) that because they don’t have that expression there. 🙂

  15. Jolyon Wagg @ #805 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 1:33 pm

    Billie

    Well under NBN internet connections are scrappy on the NSW coast so god knows what they are like inland or in WA

    Thanks for your concern, but I am sitting here in WA with an FTTP connection that reliably delivers ~95MB/s downloads and ~35MB/s uploads 🙂

    I reckon you’re the exception.

  16. SK:

    Yep. Or the true nightmare scenario for the Republicans – Trump loses the nomination, then runs for the presidency under the banner of the newly formed “Great America Party” – which also runs candidates in the House and Senate! 🙂

    Mind you, no matter how bad things get, I think it’s more likely than not he wins the Republican nomination. Polls still show him with something like 80% support in any potential primary ballot, though primary polls arn’t particularly reliable this far out from an election. But a strong showing from a primary challenger could still be very damaging, even if he wins pretty easily.

  17. billie @ #766 Monday, September 24th, 2018 – 12:34 pm

    The problem with podcasts is that the ABC charter expects the ABC to service all of Australia, in areas where internet connections are too slow or too patchy to waste bandwidth downloading podcasts.

    You don’t have good enough internet connections on NSW coast to download podcasts without driving into town and sitting in the library to use their connection

    Isn’t the idea of a podcast that you download it and then watch it at your convenience?

  18. I think the Republicans are unlikely to dump Trump while he can still run as an independent, which would kill Republican chances, making him able to compete in the Republicans Primaries.

    I suspect that Trump will be challenged in the primaries, likely by Romney (one of the reasons he has become the republican nominee for Utah Senator at the upcoming midterms), likely unsuccessfully unless Trump`s base support dramatically declines.

    If Trump looses the White House at the 2020 election, which I think is likely they will, I suspect that Trump would get impeached fairly quickly, as the Republicans will likely blame him, and that a couple of months of a lame duck Pence won`t be very harmful to the Democrats.

  20. Trump is still hugely popular with Republicans so they aren’t going to cut him loose. If anything you see their candidates cozying up to Trump, even knowing they are repulsing mainstream voters.

  21. Podcasts (audio at least) are usually relatively small files – in the order of 25 MB per hour. It might be too much data for people with very limited allowances on their plans. But the vast majority wouldn’t have any issue with freely streaming this amount of data, between their mobile network and home internet connection.

  22. If the dems don’t get the house … They need to be in control of redistricting

    Keeping in mind that Congressional districts afaik are drawn by the State legislatures, not Congress.

  23. a r:

    Exactly. My NBN connection that is available for me to switch to is FTTN, not FTTP. I’m yet to make the switch because of all the horror stories I’ve heard from others here and elsewhere about how their broadband is basically crap having made the switch.

    If you’re lucky enough to have FTTP you are indeed the exception.

  24. Jackol
    “Keeping in mind that Congressional districts afaik are drawn by the State legislatures, not Congress.”

    Exactly right. Although a few states have independent bodies to oversee redistricting, for most states it’s entirely in the hands of the legislature, and so unashamedly partisan.

  25. Thinking further about the purging of Guthrie from the ABC today and the first example of ScumMo as smiling assassin, with all the ideological divisions in the Liberal party now (the Liberals do not have factions 🙂 ) things might get pretty uncomfortable in Canberra between now and April. There will be a lot of nervous mandarins brought in by Turnbull who might now fear their days are numbered.

    Despite the fozzy bear image, Scummo has demonstrated he will have no hesitation in treating the disobedient like immigration detainees. ScumMo appears happy to have fear and obedience rather than love and respect. It will be interesting to see if it sets any more tongues wagging. How many mandarins who now feel uncomfortable and look to a Labor victory will start positioning themselves for the new era? I expect a lot of leaks from now till December. After then will be too late.

  26. While House of Representatives redistricting is in the hands of the states, Congress can pass legislation to make rules about it and potentially even do the redistricting itself.

  27. The facts are that the Director pool in Australia is of poor quality apart from certain

    When the dots are available the first question is how these Directors can attend requirements given they have so many obligations – and where does a conflict of interest start and finish

    Then you join the dots to the “mates” network – and the question then is compromised decision making on the basis of self interest including the self interest of “mates”

    These have been inhibiting factors for Corporate Australia from time in memorial

    And they are remunerated across the web of Directorships they hold

    Then you get to the Clubs they are members of and the back slapping

    It is another world and it does not do the Nation justice

    Hence the problems we have so far seen exposed at the Hayne RC

    All of these financial services Companies have a Board of Directors to whom the CEO and other responsible employees report

    Responsibility is with the Directors as they rush from one Board Room to the next

    How many Company Directors have been called to the Heyne RC, as the ultimate responsible parties?

    It will be very interesting to see the direction of the Hayne RC from here – if the Terms of Reference are expanded and if Boards of these Companies are held to account

    These businesses are complex businesses including diversification – so they deserve fully committed Directors not Directors flitting from one Board Room to the next – swigging on their Chivas en route including at their exclusive Clubs

    They treat us as a joke

  28. poroti:

    Thanks for reminding me of Dr. Strangelove, one of my favourties. I’ll get it up on YouTube. General Jack Ripper and Trump share so much in common, except the former was fictional, the latter a fact.

  29. I doubt any serious Republicans with an eye to their own future will challenge for the nomination – they would get burned by Trump, and by his supporters who would probably never forgive them.

    On the Kavanaugh Senate hearings – I wonder what will happen when the current generation of American college students face similar confirmation hearings in the future with all their past laid out on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat etc

  30. Some fool called Butch Groves – a head of school in Texas – was stupid to send a dumb message to of all people – Michael Avenatti – I dare say his days of teaching are over …

    Michael Avenatti‏Verified account @MichaelAvenatti

    Meet @butchgroves, the Head of Upper School at The Oakridge School in Arlington, TX. I have never met him before or communicated with him but here is his message to me earlier tonight. The parents of Oakridge must be so proud to have this man teaching their sons and daughters.

    Butch Groves

    You are a fucking douche bag. You lying piece of shit

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1044101917989756928

  32. And I will add that just because someone has the title they have never assume competency – so never be seduced because many are where they are by association not by ability

    When I took action against ANZ as a result of what I endured as a result of my application to the Family Court of Australia, ANZ were engaged in legal proceedings bought against them in another jusisdiction

    In regard that other matter I received a letter requesting that I appear FOR ANZ including the acknowledgement that I was in dispute over my employment at ANZ but that instruction was that my work place performance and decision making was exemplary

    Counsel enjoyed waving that letter around demanding why I had been treated as I had been treated

    ANZ settled including in regards costs – at the implied direction of the bench

    With ANZ the left hand did not know what the right hand was doing

  35. re Podcasts when you live in those parts of Australia with poor internet connections on your trips into town you have more important things to do in the library than download podcasts, things like claim Medicare, submit work diaries, submit fortnightly Centrelink claim form, shopping, check your banking etc etc

    Not all Australian residents can access internet at home because there is no internet coverage over vast areas of Australia that can listen to ABC radio

  38. Observer

    The facts are that the Director pool in Australia is of poor quality apart from certain

    From start to finish, that post is spot on. Except perhaps the last sentence….

    They treat us as a joke

    This is true but they do compartmentalise. Many are capable of being human in social and personal settings – but those clubs and boardrooms are full of Edward Hyde’s.

  40. Not a Young Lib convention, but a mining industry conference.

    When the song “Eagle Rock” played at a bar in Kalgoorlie late one night, a dozen young men scattered around a pool table dropped their trousers and heartily sang along in their underwear.

    Later that night, they piled behind the counter of the bar attached to the Western Australian School of Mines, singing an anthem that began, “We are engineers”, and finished with an obscene description of how they treat women.

    And the mining sector has even fewer women as a percentage of its workforce than the federal Liberal partyroom!

    Mining is the most male dominated-industry in Australia, with women making up 16 per cent of the sector’s national workforce for the past decade, according to government data on Friday.

    https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/macho-image-digs-wa-mining-skills-shortage-into-a-deeper-hole-ng-b88970282z

  41. Dom Knight, Esq.Verified account@domknight
    5h5 hours ago
    Eric Abetz wants the new MD to end the “frolics masquerading as ‘comedy’”. I so want to see what an Eric Abetz-approved comedy show looks like.

  43. Confessions says: Monday, September 24, 2018 at 4:21 pm

    Dom Knight, Esq.Verified account@domknight
    5h5 hours ago
    Eric Abetz wants the new MD to end the “frolics masquerading as ‘comedy’”. I so want to see what an Eric Abetz-approved comedy show looks like.

    *****************************************************

    ‘Allo ‘Allo ????? ……. so he can see some of his rellies in non-violent roles for a change …..

  47. phoenixRED

    Saw a doco/recreation re Raoul Nordling /Choltitz and the infamous Hitler phone call asking “Is Paris burning ? ” . Uncle Otto had a bit part in it and was described as ‘extremely cultured’ . His effort involved palming of nasty business re political prisoners to someone else.

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