BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. B

    If liberal Julia Banks can be criticised so can Jenny Macklin.

    Labor is supposedly the party that represents those doing it tough and are living in poverty.

    In this context, Macklin’s comments were worse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/03/business-council-rebuts-liberal-mp-julia-banks-claim-she-could-live-on-40-a-day

    “The head of the Business Council has renewed calls to increase the Newstart allowance, after the Liberal MP Julia Banks declared she could live on $40 a day.

    Banks told ABC radio on Wednesday she could “live on 40 bucks a day knowing that the government is supporting me with Newstart looking for employment”.

  2. What is really suspicious is that there is not a single reported case of contaminated potatoes being reported.
    Where are our politically-aware contaminators?
    Is our lumpen proletariat really totally endowed with false consciousness?

  3. Zoidlord says: Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 4:33 pm
    #Insiders Directors on boards don’t vote where they have a conflict of interest. Yet Mr Dutton gets to vote on a parliamentary motion concerning his own actions!

    As far back as 1976 in Victoria the Local Government Act required Councillors to absent themselves from both “discussion” and “voting” on any matter where they had a “Pecuniary Interest”. I was a Marong Shire Councillor at the time and absented myself on a couple of occasions. The Minister for Local Government at the time was strongly in favour of the rule. He was none other than the Honourable Alan Hunt MLC father of Minister Greg Hunt in the present Govt.

    I can’t believe our Federal Parliament doesn’t have such a clear-cut rule !

  4. Re tonight’s Newspoll: if it isn’t 47-53 or worse for ScoMo I’ll begin to believe the conspiracy theories about the numbers being massaged to suit various political agendas.

  5. Peg
    I am sure that the UBI will fix all these problems.
    How is it coming along, BTW?
    Given recent and previous brouhahas, will it include au pairs?

  7. An analysis of Labor’s superannuation plan by two authors from the Grattan Institute:

    https://theconversation.com/super-if-labor-really-wanted-to-help-women-in-retirement-it-would-do-something-else-103603

    “When it comes to the gender gap in retirement incomes, symbolism appears to matter more than actually achieving something.

    Labor’s plan to add super contributions to government-funded parental leave was heralded by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten this week as having a “big impact down the track”.

    Our analysis shows it would not. The boost to the retirement incomes of middle-income women would be minuscule.

    The biggest beneficiaries from the estimated A$250 million per year in extra payments would be wealthier women, and even for them the benefit wouldn’t be big.

    Importantly, by taking the place of a program that could actually improve the living standards of low-income women in retirement, the policy might do more harm than good.”

  8. Thinking of Newstart allowance, and its historical equivalents, my most uncomfortable ever bed was the back seat of a $250 car with the blankets composed mainly of the voluminous Saturday Age, in the days of the rivers of gold classifieds.
    The police came by to see whether I was alive.
    Reassured, they left.

  9. peg
    That is all very well. But let’s focus on what the Greens Government is going to deliver.
    How is the UBI coming along?
    Ready to roll, is it?
    Costed?
    Funded?

  12. Boerwar:

    Di Natale is speaking at the NPC this week, presumably to unveil a whole new raft of utterly unattainable and unrealistic policies.

  13. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 5:08 pm

    Boerwar:

    Di Natale is speaking at the NPC this week, presumably to unveil a whole new raft of utterly unattainable and unrealistic policies.’

    Well, it will have LIBLAB same same and evil and Greens good.
    Maybe he will announce that all the Greens defamation and harrassment suits have been settled and that the UBI has been costed and funded.
    But I will not be holding my breath.

  14. Just now watching a male Superb Fairy-wren in full breeding plumage.
    Their numbers have been much hammered by the drought but the life force is just a huge force in living things – even when the living things are as tiny as.

  16. Confessions @ #2412 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 5:08 pm

    Boerwar:

    Di Natale is speaking at the NPC this week, presumably to unveil a whole new raft of utterly unattainable and unrealistic policies.

    And definitely not to say that he will give up his cushy parliamentary salary and donate it to charity, or the asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus, or some Single Mums, or the Homeless. 😆

  19. “This is so obviously being used as an annual junket by both the government and opposition. And they wonder why we are cynical.”

    The ones I get very cynical about Peg are those who use the junkets like the greens and then criticise others for doing so.

    Australia’s big three political parties have been stripped of millions of dollars of taxpayer money they used to send their officials on overseas junkets.

    The Liberals, Labor and the Greens shared out $2.2 million each year from an AusAID-administered fund, which was used to fly business class to catch up with their political sympathisers around the world.
    The last deal, signed by the parties and AusAID in 2012, promised $3 million over three years to the Liberal and Labor Parties and $600,000 to the Greens.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-parties-stripped-of-millions-in-junket-cash-20140214-32pg3.html

    I mean the Greens took $600,000 from AusAid to fly business class, seriously.
    And it is not just at the federal level that the Greens love their overseas junkets.

    Yarra councillor Amanda Stone under fire for junket | Herald Sun
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/…fire…junket/…/903e74c04b0229775c51d8f6f94ff97f
    Apr 12, 2018 – A GLOBETROTTING inner-city Greens councillor has been blasted over another overseas trip to be partly paid for by ratepayers.

  21. Don’t worry Boerwar, we have a plentiful supply of Fairy Wrens and Blue Wrens up here in the Temperate Rainforest of the Central Coast of NSW. And there’s nothing like watching a Fairy Wren male with his harem of females. Though I do wish they would stop attacking my window as if it were the competition. 😀

  22. C
    I don’t mind Di Natale living in a multi-million dollar plus bespoke architect designed renovated pad in an leafy inner suburb. After all, when the Greens have finished with their wealth redistribution plan, everyone will be living in a multi-million dollar pad in a leafy inner suburb on their UBI.

  23. C
    Some of the harem will be unplumaged nuncs who are feeding their nephews and nieces in a particularly complex piece of evidence for Darwinian evolution.

  25. ‘Lynchpin says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 5:15 pm

    Beautiful birds BW. We have some in our back garden.’

    Such wealth for toil!

  27. C@tmomma @ #2412 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 5:13 pm

    Confessions @ #2412 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 5:08 pm

    Boerwar:

    Di Natale is speaking at the NPC this week, presumably to unveil a whole new raft of utterly unattainable and unrealistic policies.

    And definitely not to say that he will give up his cushy parliamentary salary and donate it to charity, or the asylum seekers on Nauru and Manus, or some Single Mums, or the Homeless. 😆

    Are you seriously using the inhumanity on Nauru to score cheap partisan points ?

  31. P1,
    We used to have Lyrebirds here as well, until the development became too much for them and they disappeared. 🙁

    They would just sit on people’s roofs and survey the world. 🙂

  34. C@tmomma @ #2431 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 5:22 pm

    P1,
    We used to have Lyrebirds here as well, until the development became too much for them and they disappeared. 🙁

    They would just sit on people’s roofs and survey the world. 🙂

    I wish ours were as placid! They rip flyscreens off doors and windows, and have actually scratched the glass in their fury to attack their “rivals”.

    We even put frosting on the glass, but to no avail 🙁

  36. p
    *laughs*
    The interesting thing was that at the time I was so full of hope, energy, and expectations that my abject poverty was like water off a duck’s back.
    I had watched most of my uncles come to Australia as economic refugees from a war-torn europe, dirt poor, and then watched them become millionaires and multi-millionaires. I knew in my bones that this was one of my life choices.
    In fact, having watched them work two or three jobs and save and invest and re-invest with a merciless regimen, I set my youthful face against the almighty dollar. Becoming a millionaire was not the be-all and end-all!

  37. I knew of a kookaburra who repeatedly flew down from a water tank to attack its reflection in a window. The owner was not impressed when I suggested that she needed to climb up to understand the right angle to block the reflection.

  40. I wish a single Greens would come out and explain the costings and fundings of the UBI. After all, there is zip left in the Greens kitty when they finish funding the UBI. So it MUST be important to somebody.

  44. Just now watching a male Superb Fairy-wren in full breeding plumage.

    Delightful birds.

    Two birds have left a deeper impression;
    The Regent Bowerbird. For sheer visual amazement. I will never forget the first time one flew past me.
    Swifts. One day, on the top of an exposed mountain in Deua NP, I was terrified thinking someone was shooting at me. It took a little while (cowering next to a rock) before I realised they were birds moving so fast it sounded like metal tearing the air apart.

  47. Talking about reflected wildlife, we cohabit with a water dragon or three, who live under things in our yard and no doubt with the neighbours too. The largest of them is of the order of a metre long. A big bastard. Just this week he decided that he didn’t like the look of his reflection in our patio door and attempted to come in the house to sort him out. Very entertaining!

  49. “When it comes to the gender gap in retirement incomes, symbolism appears to matter more than actually achieving something.”

    It is not symbolism Peg it is steps to improvement recognising the reality of the situation.

    Without labor most women would not have superannuation except the wealthy ones getting company super. I well remember the days when you had to be “invited to joining the company super fund.
    They may have been lucky to be on the award 3% super if there were in an occupation that recognised such award.
    Labor gave them 9.25% super, each incremental step decried by labor critics as not enough, its hsould be at 15% like Keating planned but blocked by LNP governments.

    What did RDN and the greens do to help with this super, did he say to Turnbull I will give you your double dissolution if you increase super as planned.

    What have the greens done for women but criticise every singles tep of improvement including on parental leave.

    Can you point to areas of improvement for women that the greens have forced the government be they labor or liberal to concede on.

    Can you point to areas like where labor has done so much for women like in making super part of marriage breakups, social discrimination laws, employment laws, domestic voilence and harrassment laws?

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