BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 48 of 52
1 … 47 48 49 … 52

  2. don
    I didn’t see the photo. In general South Coast hills are crap country. But some of the lower hills around Bega are productive but not as good as the flats.

  3. don,
    It’s a ‘Bucolic Experience’ farm, it looks like to me. You pays your money, you get the Rammed Earth house + farm life sensory immersion for a couple of days, then back to the city. 🙂

  4. UN junket – bipartisan agreement on rorting taxpayers money.

    https://theaimn.com/the-united-nations-junket-at-your-expense/

    “Every year, Australia sends two federal politicians for a three-month secondment to observe and work with the established Australian Mission to the United Nations but, in recent times, it has increasingly been used as a reward, or a “lap of honour”, or to remove a problem MP.

    This year, we will be sending two women who have announced they will not be contesting the next election. How can that be viewed as a productive use of taxpayers’ money?

    The Liberals are sending Anne Sudmalis to shut her up about her bullying claims. Morrison had offered the posting to Julia Banks a week before for similar reasons but she declined. Labor are sending Jenny Macklin to reward her for years of service.

    Forget the fact that these postings can cost about $100,000 each and that there is no requirement to file an official account about their work while there or Australia’s activities at the UN.
    :::::::
    This is so obviously being used as an annual junket by both the government and opposition. And they wonder why we are cynical.”

  6. Boerwar

    It be true and very cute work by her office transcript people……

    THE Families Minister, Jenny Macklin, has angered welfare groups by claiming she could live on the $35-a-day Newstart allowance.

    Ms Macklin made the comments on the day that more than 80,000 single parents were shifted from the parenting payment to the lower Newstart allowance, leaving some up to $110 a week worse off…………. Ms Macklin was asked whether she could survive on the $246 a week payment. She said: ”I could” but the question and Ms Macklin’s answer were recorded as ”inaudible” in a transcript of the news conference later issued by her office.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-could-live-on-newstart-macklin-20130101-2c485.html

  7. steve davis @ #2334 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 3:42 pm

    Anyone who didnt believe Scomo didnt become PM without backstabbing is a fool.

    Of course he backstabbed. They all do – it’s in their DNA. The real question is whether he was smart enough to plan the coup in advance instead of just capitalizing on a failed attempt by Dutton and Abbott – most likely with Mal’s connivance, once he knew he was done.

    And I reckon the answer is “no” – he’s simply not that bright. But there seems to be a few people who are desperate to make the public believe he was, because it makes the whole mess look a bit better if they can convince you it was a carefully planned masterstroke and not just an omnishambles of biblical proportions.

  10. p
    thanks.
    Of course if Labor was in government at the time AND she was a minister she would have had to resign to say anything other than what she did.

  11. I’m hoping for a 50-50. Newspoll and a ScoMotion brain snap of an early election. But alas. I don’t think so.

    However, I’d say the combination of an auto-correct after the Leadershit, a bit of ScoMo turd polishing by the MSM and some also some early manoeuvring by Scrott to bury some obvious policy problems will see something of bounce. Who knows how much, but put me down for Labor 54-46.

    Cheers

  13. Andrew_Earlwood

    The MSM are definitely treating ScoMo as a saviour with a bright halo. It will be interesting to see whether voters believe it (obviously some will).

  14. Let’s see. Channelling Ticky & sundry other hagiographers:

    Picked up the Amen parents of 700,000 catholic school kids = 3%.
    Picked up the cosa nostra strawberry vote = 1%.
    Piched up the pentecostal speaking in tongues vote = 2%.
    Picked up the Hanrahan Farming vote = 1%.
    Picked up the pro-bullying hot kitchen vote = 3%.
    I make that 53/47 to the Liberals.
    PPM I make that 52/34 to Morrison.

  18. ‘And then she said she could live on New Start, no worries. (from a position of her $300,000 salary) to New Start. A hideous thing to say to people struggling.’
    And several Liberal MPs said exactly the same thing – why single out Macklin?
    ___________________________________
    Macklin’s decision was without doubt the worst moment in the history of the A.L.P. (For me I suppose). It was also a terrible betrayal of a hundred years of honourable efforts to alleviate child poverty. Bob Hawke’s ‘no child will live in poverty’ speech might be ridiculed but for me it was great aspiration. No doubt she will enjoy New York on the public purse for 3 months.

    It was also pathetic to see Macklin hustle for the votes of single mothers after the 2013 election loss:

    FORMER senior Labor minister Jenny Macklin has told a gathering of single mothers the Gillard government “got it wrong” on cuts to single parent payments, acknowledging for the first time that she doesn’t support the policy.Ms Macklin, who is the opposition’s families and payments spokeswoman, said Labor had mishandled the issue, effectively apologising to the welfare lobby.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/gillard-government-got-it-wrong-on-single-parent-payments-says-jenny-macklin/news-story/216615d31b6b50a85ab77b7e917950ad

  19. Stephen Mayne has been crunching the numbers..

    If Rupert hadn’t shifted News Corp’s domicile from Australia to Delaware in 2004, the ATO would have got some of the $20.8 billion cheque the demerged Fox will be getting from Comcast for 39% of Sky PLC in the coming weeks. Instead, @realDonaldTrump govt will get a tax windfall.

  23. I thought Tingle’s analysis of the cynicism of Morrison’s no plan for emissions, Morrison’s lying about the current emissions and Morrison indicating that he was staying in Paris because he could pretend to do so was excellent.
    Tingle did leave out that Australia is taking the lead, along with Trump, to try to undermine the implementation negotiations for the Paris Accord.

  24. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 4:24 pm

    Boerwar

    She should have said the obvious answer and acknowledged she would find it difficult.’

    I could live on $245 a week and have lived on less than that for a significant amount of my life. It is not so much difficult as not very enjoyable at all.

  25. Paul Dutton‏ @pauldutton1968 · 2h2 hours ago

    Andrew Forrest is wrong: welfare spending is not out of control
    Forrest should not have any say in politics and especially what should or shouldn’t happen for Centrelink payments.
    What’s more Govt should stop immediately paying Forrest subsidies.

    The release of the Forrest review into Indigenous training and employment contains numerous interesting recommendations to improve Indigenous employment opportunities, but his recommendation for welfare provided through income management for all welfare holders is based on what has become a persistently false view of social security in Australia.

    Forrest’s report is certainly very well meant and there is no doubting his desire to see improvements in the lives of Indigenous peoples. The report contains some good suggestions and points of view – especially with regard to training leading to a job, rather than just training for the sake of it.

    But the report and statements he has made betray a view of welfare as a negative that needs to be reduced and which holds back rather than helps people. It’s a view based on ignorance rather than facts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/aug/04/andrew-forrest-is-wrong-welfare-spending-is-not-out-of-control?CMP=share_btn_tw

  28. Mueller, She Wrote Podcast
    @MuellerSheWrote
    ·
    Sep 22
    I was drugged and raped in the Navy. The MP told me if I filed a report I would be charged with adultery because my rapist was married. I would lose my benefits and face a dishonorable discharge. “Let’s chalk this up to a bad choice on your part”. #WhyIDidntReport #InvisibleWar

  29. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP

    To be clear, I don’t begrudge our Prime Minister not being average. I wouldn’t want them to be. Just don’t pretend

  31. Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    55m
    Let me get this straight, the PM is worried that publishing how much less women earn than men might cause disharmony in the workplace. Shouldn’t he be more worried about a large gender pay gap? Seriously, this government…

  32. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 4:28 pm

    Boerwar

    And for a significant part of your life the cost of rent/housing would likely be a lot lower proportionally.’

    We got extremely cheap rent for silver bullets in the NT. I argued that they should be paying us to stay in them. They were, to put it mildly, brutal.

  33. AnnastaciaPalaszczuk and 4 others follow
    Jackson Williams
    Jackson Williams
    @jacksonw____
    ·
    11m
    Needles have been found in a punnet of Australian strawberries, purchased from a Countdown supermarket in Auckland.
    @SkyNewsAust

  34. #Insiders Directors on boards don’t vote where they have a conflict of interest. Yet Mr Dutton gets to vote on a parliamentary motion concerning his own actions!

  36. The issue is not whether living on Newstart is enjoyable.
    Or whether it is difficult.
    The issue is whether it is possible.
    When we first migrated to Australia our house had three walls and a fire for the fourth wall. The fire helped somewhat to cope when it snowed, which it did several times.
    One of my uncles lived in a tent with ten kids when he first migrated to Australia.
    I know of of one family that lived in a garage for over a year.
    When we were first married our hut had one cold tap in it. The only electric device in the hut was the electric light.

  38. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 4:34 pm

    Boerwar

    They tell me the air conditioning was not quite up to scratch .’

    I forget the dimensions of the one bed room. We had a double bed in it plus a baby plus a one year old. No air con. No electricity except when we could get the genny to work. It had been in Cyclone Tracey and was temperamental. Sweat simply running off us. Awake for most of the night. Wake up in the morning where the temperature under the shelter was once measured as 127 degrees in the old.
    It was tough stuff.

  39. Let me get this straight, the PM is worried that publishing how much less women earn than men might cause disharmony in the workplace. Shouldn’t he be more worried about a large gender pay gap? Seriously, this government…

    Why would Morrison be worried about the gender pay gap? After all if there were less women in the workplace he wouldn’t have to deal with the pesky issue of women within his partyroom complaining about being bullied and harrassed.

  41. Pegasus
    says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 4:38 pm
    Nath
    Macklin “hustled for votes” and apologised in 2013 because her electorate Jagajaga had become marginal.
    The recent boundary redistribution has the seat on a margin of 5%.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/vic/
    ____________________________________
    Thanks. That adds to the context of it all. Of course it was not just Macklin, Gillard signed off on it and could have been behind it in the first place who knows. That Macklin is now spending 3 months in New York on our dollar just incenses me. Here’s another who bludgeons welfare recipients who has spent their whole adult life receiving tax payers money themselves.

  42. Confessions @ #2389 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    Let me get this straight, the PM is worried that publishing how much less women earn than men might cause disharmony in the workplace. Shouldn’t he be more worried about a large gender pay gap? Seriously, this government…

    Why would Morrison be worried about the gender pay gap? After all if there were less women in the workplace he wouldn’t have to deal with the pesky issue of women within his partyroom complaining about being bullied and harrassed.

    Yeah. I’m not sure that Morrison is worried about just any workplace. In an organisation you’ve got to know when it is safe to rock the boat. Now probably isn’t a good time if you’re Morrison and dealing with the LNP’s ‘women problem’.

    EDIT: removed double quote.

  43. billie @ #2202 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 11:48 am

    Why didn’t Insiders mention yesterday’s The Age report that the grower and packing shed whose strawberries were contaminated with sewing needles was a Mildura businessman who had spent time in jail for drug dealing

    poroti @ #2342 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 3:53 pm

    zoomster

    From the Coalition such comments are to be expected but from a Labor pollie !!!

    I don’t believe it’s true, but maybe someone has a quote.

  44. Labor, with its superannuation fix and its equal pay initiative is trying to feed into the Coalition’s weakness with half of all voters.
    And Labor’s strength, of course.
    After all, when half of your MPs are women then it becomes more likely that social policies are much better informed.

  47. Late Riser:

    Morrison’s reaction to Labor’s announcement suggests he was caught off guard and did the first thing that came to his mind: reject it. I think he might come to rue that response, esp if the News ltd culture warriors start running with the predicted attack on Labor for wanting to divide workplaces along gender lines (kinda what Morrison was inferring). It will backlash against them in my view.

  49. adrian

    “2 January 2013 — 3:00am
    THE Families Minister, Jenny Macklin, has angered welfare groups by claiming she could live on the $35-a-day Newstart allowance.
    Ms Macklin made the comments on the day that more than 80,000 single parents were shifted from the parenting payment to the lower Newstart allowance, leaving some up to $110 a week worse off.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-could-live-on-newstart-macklin-20130101-2c485.html

Comments Page 48 of 52
1 … 47 48 49 … 52

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *