BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  2. Yep.

    Seems she wanted working holiday visa holders to be able to extend their stay, if they worked as volunteers for her business on a food and accomodation basis.

  7. wwoof…

    1. Suspect outfit when it comes to people on tourist visas (not working ones)

    2. Often labour is unpaid, in return for food and accommodation…a sort of voluntary slavery, if you will…

  8. “uytaur says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 12:34 pm
    Morrison is trying to claim credit for narrowing the pay gap between genders”

    Presumably he’s talking about the pay of MPs?

  10. FORTRESS AUSTRALIA: HOW DID WE GET HERE?

    By Julian Burnside

    “Morrison and Dutton… are, arguably, the most dishonest hypocrites ever to hold high office in this country. “Dishonest” because they call boat people “illegal” (and) “hypocrites” because they both claim to be Christians, and yet their treatment of asylum seekers has been criticised by every Christian denomination and by the World Council of Churches.”

  13. I love how the churches position themselves as the holders of empathy now that they have lost their power over orphaned children, pregnant single women and any person in a weak enough position to have been dragged into their institutions in times past.

  14. “Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 12:37 pm
    Yep.
    Seems she wanted working holiday visa holders to be able to extend their stay, if they worked as volunteers for her business on a food and accomodation basis.”

    She should be good for a couple of au pairs courtesy of Dutton.

  15. Rowan‏ @FightingTories · 2m2 minutes ago

    Journo asks MuppetMorrison about catholic slush funding and Muppetman changes back to MRI and Labor and unions lies

  16. C@tmomma @ #2234 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 12:26 pm

    The new Eden-Monaro Liberal candidate is Player One!

    380 acre cattle farm, family run for 50 years and 30 mins from the beach, surrounded by NPs. Extensive views with kangaroos, wombats, other wildlife & many native birds. We are developing truffles (first ones this year), eco-tourism & preserves. Our home is straw-bale & rammed earth; solar power & hot water, tank rainwater, composting toilets, masonry heater for winter & combustion stove cooking. Work includes orchard & truffiere maintenance, farm chores, working with cows, weeding, gardening, rock walls, fences & and other infrastructure. Accom for up to 4 in 2 bedrooms.

    https://wwoof.com.au/members/nd084/

    😉

    Nearly. Except we have more accommodation for people, less for cows, and would never support the Liberals! 🙂

  19. Eden Monaro is an interesting seat- often considered a bell wether which always goes with the winning party of government – apart from 2016 when another Dr, Mike Kelly, won it against the return of the Turnbull Government. And the Coalition rules are such (other than QLD and WA) is that if either party loses a regional seat, it becomes open to anyone to contest. Otherwise, the incumbent party is not challenged by the other.

    So Eden Monaro was lost by the Libs, and the Nationals have got an EOI out for candidates to stand in the seat -looking to 3 corner the seat. I hope they select a Barnaby BeetRooter type.. a greenie woman to swap preferences with?

    This comment form Wacka Williams in the Bombala Times

    “The Nationals’ patron senator for Eden-Monaro, John Williams, said he was keen to see several people nominate so the branch would have a quality choice to make on who the candidate would be.

    He played down the issue of running a National Party candidate up against a Liberal Coalition colleague, saying it wouldn’t be the first time and that it could even be beneficial.

    “Eden-Monaro is a big regional area now and we stick up for the regions,” Senator Williams told Fairfax Media on Tuesday.

    “You only have to look at the state seat of Monaro and see the NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro in charge – there are a lot of National votes there.

    “I don’t particularly like a three-cornered contest at the state level as there is no compulsory preferencing and the National vote can get exhausted early – we’ve seen that happen before.

    “But for the federal election we’re happy to stand against the Liberal and Labor parties – in fact it can even be beneficial and gives the people more options to vote for come election day.”

    https://www.bombalatimes.com.au/story/5625880/nationals-look-to-3-corner-contest-in-eden-monaro/

  21. It never ceases to amaze me that all the happy clappers, fundamentalists and conservative Christians, especially in the LNP, ain’t woke to the obvious fact that their lord was far more left wing and radical than either Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn.

    My dad was an evangelist pastor in the Seventh-day Adventist Church for more than 45 years. Yet he was left wing and radical in his commitment to social justice: this undoubtably made it very difficult for him professionally. Also tough on his kids, all of whom inhereted his left wing sensibilities, if not his religion. He took me as a nearly three year old to Gough’s Blacktown campaign launch in 72’ – not that I remember that; but we were definitely a Whitlam household in a sea of nuevo rich tories in the Hills district in North West Sydney – and I recall receiving my first canning at school for swearing over Fraser, even though I was only reacting to the taunts of the other kids over the dismissal …

    Years later, and after dad had his stroke I had the pleasure of introducing my parents to Gough and Margaret in the Speakers Dining Room for joint Christmas lunch I hosted for the staff of my old boss (Gough) and my new staff (John Murray the then Speaker of the NSW Parliament) afte I became COS in 1995. I also snuck my then girlfriend – now wife – into the luncheon, which made the occasion the first time my parents met their political idol and THAT girl I’d been sneaking about with for the past year or so … A great day!

  22. For a bit of temporary insanity, 58/42 to Labor, since I can’t get the poor old Tigers’ final siren score out of my head and it needs a happier context.

    Dreamin’, but hey.

  23. Sprocket_ @ #2242 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    I think the Liberal Party are gobsmacked that someone like Fiona Kotvojs could be pre selected for Eden Monaro – she is so far removed from the troglodyte MonkeyPod that it can only be a pointer to the battle for the soul of the Broad Church. So no publicity or drops to the Murdoch gutter press as yet..

    A bit about the Dr (not a medical doctor…) from her bio on the board of Oxfam.

    Dr Fiona Kotvojs

    D. Ed, MBA, Grad Dip Bus Mgt, Grad Dip. Ed, Grad Dip Assess & Eval., BSc [Hon], GAICD

    Responsibilities: Member of the Governance Committee

    Appointed: 2012
    Current term expires: 2019

    Dr Fiona Kotvojs brings 30 years’ experience in the international development sector, encompassing design, management and evaluation of programs. She has a commitment to sustainability and capacity development, and is a recognised expert in these areas. Fiona has worked across a range of sectors including education, agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, economic governance, community development and law and justice. This is supported by postgraduate qualifications in education, business and evaluation. Fiona is also a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Community is a strong focus for Fiona. Consequently she maintains an active involvement in her community, including a number of leadership roles.

    I have spent some time in that area and formerly lived in Canberra. This lady looks to be a very good lib candidate for the non-urban areas of Eden Monaro. Mike Kelly is based in urban Queanbeyan.
    The pdf on working holiday visas makes the point that the volunteers working for accom and food are actually better off (assuming accom is comfortable). Hotels etc down there are expensive and there is effectively no public transport anywhere.

  24. I looked up UK au pairs.

    Au Pairs
    An Au Pair will live with you and your family, in return for board and lodging and a small allowance. They will normally expect to do some light housework and some childcare although not sole charge for long periods of time.

    Volunteer wwoof (Volunteer workers on organic farms)
    Volunteer for 4-6 hours per day, 5 days/week, (the days are worked out between you and the Hosts depending on their schedule) in return for your meals, accommodation & culture.
    Host a volunteer on your organic property and get 4-6 hours help daily in exchange for meals and accommodation.

  27. Kotvojs is also a far cry from the Liberals’ last Member for Eden-Monaro who was part Abbottobod, part useless troglodyte, part moron.

  28. Presumably from JBishop’s ’60 Minutes’ interview:

    ‘No better than school kids’
    11:47AMRICK MORTON
    Julie Bishop says foreign ministers from around the world have told her Australia is the “Italy of the South Pacific” and “coup capital” in a revealing TV interview. (Oz headline)

  29. C@tmomma @ #2146 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 10:07 am

    I didn’t call her Ticky Tory for nothing when she was hosting ‘The Business’ on that hotbed of ‘Lefty journalism’, the ABC.

    ‘Ticky’ is also the wife of AFR Editor Michael Stutchbury and mother of Harry Stutchbury who has ‘taken’ to writing in recent times and is NSW Young Liberals President 2018.

    Young Harry was a staffer with pro-coal lobby group, NSW Minerals Council prior to President of the NSW Young Fogies.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/minerals-council-staffer-set-to-take-the-reins-at-the-nsw-young-liberals-20171011-gyyrn5.html

  31. Thanks Lizzie. I have an odd affection for MRI going back to uni days. One of the developers (at least he claimed) taught me quantum mechanics. He had a ‘secret’ lab in the basement of the science building and you’d see liquid helium disappearing into it from time to time. 🙂

  32. Late Riser @ #2195 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 11:40 am

    BK, thank you for the “Hand of God” article on Morrison.

    The quote that sticks is, “…to note the Prime Ministers that have had the strongest relationship with churches – Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison – have displayed the least amount of generosity and religious spirit in their political deliberations…”

    I wonder if for people like Morrison and Abbott, the church, rather than any religion, gives them a metaphorical shield from detractors and a metaphorical drug to let them sleep at night.

    And in answer to, “What in Catholic culture caused this debauchery?”, perhaps the shield/drug combo is what draws some to the protection of the Catholic Church. Perhaps the Catholic Church does not so much cause but allow the debauchery. (And shame on it either way.)

    I suspect that the religious motif in Australian politics is a marker of authoritarianism and hierarchicalism. One could argue that all religions are essentially political.

  34. rhwombat

    I suspect that the religious motif in Australian politics is a marker of authoritarianism and hierarchicalism.

    Hence all those politicians with god on their sleeves?

    One could argue that all religions are essentially political.

    And their need to preserve the privilege. Although I still try to distinguish between the religion and it’s church.

  36. The reference to Stutchbury the Younger up thread reminds me of a recent brain fart Harry came up with…

    “NSW Young Liberals propose including home in assets test

    President of the NSW Young Liberals Harry Stutchbury has sparked an internal brawl within his party after writing in The Sydney Morning Herald that the Government should scrap the primary dwelling exemption from the Age Pension assets test.

    Mr Stutchbury said the Liberals were “terrified of taking serious steps to tackle housing affordability”, having been burnt by their attempt to curb superannuation excesses before the last election.

    “The Coalition treads on eggshells around the pensions of retirees sitting on homes worth millions of dollars across Sydney and Melbourne’s blue chip electorates,” Mr Stutchbury wrote.

    “Imagine two Australians, who over the course of their lifetimes earn the same income, and save the same amount of money. However, one of them invests in the share market instead of buying a home. The one bold enough to invest in productive capital in the share market will be ineligible for the aged-pension and significantly worse off as a result.

    “This creates an incentive for Australians close to retirement to sit on large family homes instead of downsizing. This reduces the volume of housing available in the market, pushing up prices.”

    In response, NSW Counter Terrorism Minister David Elliott blasted Mr Stutchbury on Facebook, suggesting Liberal voters in western Sydney would use the opinion piece to light their barbecues.

    “A middle class eastern suburbs private school boy is hardly qualified to pass judgement on something he’s never faced,” Mr Elliott wrote. “Haven’t we already had our quota of policy brain farts?”

    Federal Assistant Home Affairs Minister Alex Hawke dismissed Mr Stutchbury’s contributions as lazy and wrong.

    “It definitely was intellectually lazy and inaccurately posited that older people exercising their absolute right to stay in their own home as long as they want are somehow hurting young people from getting ahead,” Mr Hawke wrote.

    https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/government/pension/is-your-home-safe-from-assets-test#.W6cETqw7QlE.facebook

  39. Thank you Sprocket_ .

    “A middle class eastern suburbs private school boy is hardly qualified to pass judgement on something he’s never faced,” Mr Elliott wrote. “Haven’t we already had our quota of policy brain farts?”

    That might be said about a number of things recently.

  44. 53/47 TPP for Labor….

    If I was the ALP I would start a campaign with ………

    ” Fair funding for public schools…….. no-go from ScoMo”

  46. Dismal blighters, aren’t we?

    No way. I am chipper skipper.

    The sun is out, the garden is coming to life and heck…. the temperature nudged into the teens today!

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