BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 45 of 52
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  1. I am not predicting Newspoll except to say they will try and make it look as good as they can for the LNP without destroying the Newspoll credibility as the go to poll.

    That question on climate change was a doozy in the last one.

  3. Why didn’t Insiders mention yesterday’s The Age report that the grower and packing shed whose strawberries were contaminated with sewing needles was a Mildura businessman who had spent time in jail for drug dealing

  4. Jieh-Yung Lo 羅介雍‏ @jiehyunglo · Sep 21

    For calling out #ScoMo’s offensive boat trophy on his desk, I was told by someone to “get a life”. Well you know what, it was the humanity & generosity of Malcolm Fraser & his Minister Ian Macphee that my family are even alive today. And for that we are forever grateful. #auspol

  8. Not politics, but-

    Ewin Hannan‏Verified account @EwinHannan · Sep 18

    Regulators have raised the alarm about engineered stone benchtops after audit of 10 manufacturers in Queensland reveals 26 workers have contracted the debilitating lung disease silicosis. At least six of the diagnoses are considered terminal. @australian

  9. guytaur @ #2185 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 11:26 am

    The New Yorker tweets

    The question for the Church now, given the astounding scale of the dysfunction, arching from the Americas to Europe, Africa, the Philippines, and Australia, is: What in Catholic culture caused this debauchery?  http://nyer.cm/8RvrvxB

    A good question, which the article doesn’t really answer.

    Maybe it’s the inherent ridiculousness of a male dominated, secrecy encrusted organisation that believes in mythical beings and is able to accumulate great wealth for the benefit of its leaders, partly by virtue of its tax free status?

    Just hazarding a guess.

  10. Apologies to all I missed in the Newspoll prediction. I now count 15 respondents. I’ll do a summary later today. Current prediction is Mean and Median both 54/46. 🙂

  12. The interesting thung about newspoll at the moment is you can’t predict it.

    Put me down for 53 and endless articals on sm’s god like political skills.

    Dead cat bounces happen.

  15. I have a question for people around and politically aware in the late 60’s and early 70’s.

    Is the political environment like that of the period when Whitlam campaigned?

    From this distance what I am seeing in politics in UK US and Australia sure seems like it. Is my perception real?

  17. In the late 60’s and early 70’s we had Liberal Party Prime Ministers who at least made an effort to look prime ministerial, and had at least some competent ministers supporting them.

    We then had a Government, albeit a tired, weak and indecisive Government.

    What we have now is a comic opera.

  19. The Liar from the Shire tweets…

    Thrilled Dr Fiona Kotvojs has been selected to be our Liberal candidate for Eden Monaro. With a background in small business, farming and international development, she’s a great pick.

  21. guytaur

    It was Gough who woke me to politics, but no, I don’t think this is similar.

    We smelt the change in the air, a renewal, new ideas. Now everything is stale and pedestrian and we just want change because we’re sick of the current government.

  22. Late Riser
    says:
    Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 12:16 pm
    nath @ #2217 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 12:15 pm
    56/44 if anyone is interested.
    Always.
    _________________
    cheers m8

  24. guytaur,
    In answer to your Catholic Church question, in a word, Celibacy. You just haven’t seen the amount of sexual abuse in the other churches that you have in the Catholic Church. And if you have it has tended to be on the physical cruelty side. Though some of the stuff I heard coming out of the findings about the Salvation Army-run homes for children was pretty horrific. Physical and sexual abuse.

    Of course, many religious cults seem to function around sexual abuse. Maybe it’s because their ‘leaders’ are usually either extremely ugly and have devised the only way they can to get some action, or extremely charismatic and attractive and, as narcissists, are exploiting that.

    But that ability to use an institution, supposedly beyond reproach and there for good deeds, such as a religious institution, is one that is seemingly easily exploited by the devious and deranged.

  26. guytaur
    I would say not like the 60’s and 70’s, at least in Oz. This current Fed. govt. is the worst in my memory. Although Bjelke Petersen was as corrupt as all get out.

  27. FS

    Yeah its not exactly the same. What prompted my question is the students protesting at university debates.

    France had the most violent student protests in that era.

    We had Asio spying on student activists. A party in power trying to stop the social progressive society just like those today.

    Nixon getting impeached and using wag the dog of the Vietnam war to distract that he inherited just like the war on terror and immigration today. In Australia I think Menzies was still using the yellow peril argument.

    I ask because we then had a real progressive government brought down but the conservatives hamstrung with trying to wind back rights. This is true in the US and UK and Australia which is why Thatcher and Reagan are seen as a turning point too

  33. guytaur,

    Any of us old enough to have been aware in the 60s/70s are obviously no longer young. I know I have different urges, different filters, more awareness, and I suspect a boulder or two of accreted cynicism. I’d be surprised if you get an unbiased opinion.

    But I’d guess that today’s Zeitgeist is more disgust with the governing mob, rather than hope for something new.

  35. The new Eden-Monaro Liberal candidate is Player One!

    380 acre cattle farm, family run for 50 years and 30 mins from the beach, surrounded by NPs. Extensive views with kangaroos, wombats, other wildlife & many native birds. We are developing truffles (first ones this year), eco-tourism & preserves. Our home is straw-bale & rammed earth; solar power & hot water, tank rainwater, composting toilets, masonry heater for winter & combustion stove cooking. Work includes orchard & truffiere maintenance, farm chores, working with cows, weeding, gardening, rock walls, fences & and other infrastructure. Accom for up to 4 in 2 bedrooms.

    https://wwoof.com.au/members/nd084/

    😉

  36. And on the question of paedophilia in the Catholic church. One thing we know for sure about paedophiles (and they’re not a uniform group) is that they will always target organisations where there are children they can groom or frighten or shame into submission.
    C@t, some paedophiles also have sexual relationships with adult women at the same time they are sexually abusing children.

  38. Late Riser

    But I’d guess that today’s Zeitgeist is more disgust with the governing mob, rather than hope for something new.

    Yes, yes.

  41. Lizzie said
    Not politics, but-

    Ewin Hannan‏Verified account @EwinHannan · Sep 18

    Regulators have raised the alarm about engineered stone benchtops after audit of 10 manufacturers in Queensland reveals 26 workers have contracted the debilitating lung disease silicosis. At least six of the diagnoses are considered terminal. @australian

    Actually Lizzie the LABOR Party was formed to protect workers health in the workplace as well as pay and other conditions

    Thanks for bringing the situation to my attention

  42. Quick, before it’s taken down, somebody who’s smarter than I google Fiona Kotvojs and locate her submission to a review on Working Holiday Visas.

    Please post it here, as I can’t.

    She has an interesting mindset and viewpoint on the exploitation of these workers which Labor may find equally interesting.

  43. I think the Liberal Party are gobsmacked that someone like Fiona Kotvojs could be pre selected for Eden Monaro – she is so far removed from the troglodyte MonkeyPod that it can only be a pointer to the battle for the soul of the Broad Church. So no publicity or drops to the Murdoch gutter press as yet..

    A bit about the Dr (not a medical doctor…) from her bio on the board of Oxfam.

    Dr Fiona Kotvojs

    D. Ed, MBA, Grad Dip Bus Mgt, Grad Dip. Ed, Grad Dip Assess & Eval., BSc [Hon], GAICD

    Responsibilities: Member of the Governance Committee

    Appointed: 2012
    Current term expires: 2019

    Dr Fiona Kotvojs brings 30 years’ experience in the international development sector, encompassing design, management and evaluation of programs. She has a commitment to sustainability and capacity development, and is a recognised expert in these areas. Fiona has worked across a range of sectors including education, agriculture, fisheries, infrastructure, economic governance, community development and law and justice. This is supported by postgraduate qualifications in education, business and evaluation. Fiona is also a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Community is a strong focus for Fiona. Consequently she maintains an active involvement in her community, including a number of leadership roles.

    And where does the Dr live?

    https://www.naroomanewsonline.com.au/story/3340659/dignams-creek-home-features-on-sustainable-house-day/

  49. I get the feeling that Morrison will flog himself to death in the election campaign and that malls will feature prominently. Turnbull didn’t do malls did he? Maybe a few trendy shopping strips but cant remember him in a mall.

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