BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.

Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,598 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 52
1 2 3 4 52
  1. Fess

    If you are going to be travelling a lot in the time in NSW on public transport you could buy a weekly ticket that gives you the same access as the pensioner card gets. I don’t know the full price.

    I agree the system you quote is more tourist friendly.

  2. Darn

    Well, I was brought up to protest against points of view and actions I thought were harmful or dangerous.

    “Going along to get along” doesn’t resolve anything.

    Arndt had the right to speak, and was given a platform (not one available to any of her detractors). The students equally had a right to protest against her speaking.

    If they didn’t want to listen to her, then she has plenty of opportunities to speak elsewhere.

    Both parties were exercising their right to free speech. I’m pretty sure that the failure to listen was also on both sides.

  3. Julie BishopVerified account@JulieBishopMP
    14h14 hours ago
    Hi Janet @jkalbrechtsen had you contacted me before publishing, I would have told you that I decided to run for PM only when MT confirmed he would not, and I personally contacted all 84 Liberals and discussed with the majority how we could defeat ALP including on policy

  4. When I was working in Senator McLucas’ office during 2004 she had a woman there also in the office whose special interest was Elder Abuse. They didn’t just discover the subject last weekend before 4 Corners like Morrison did.

  5. “I am assuming that includes my own personal cabin and butler service.”

    Depending upon the time of day, you get to share your cabin with 100 strangers. Unfortunately, the butlers were all retrenched some years back.

  6. Observer – 9:20 am. I agree. Self-regulation is no regulation. How could it be any different? And taking up the sporting metaphor, how can you have a fair game without clear rules and referees that are impartial and active? I imagine how fast a sport I care about would collapse without these principles. I see our society as different in the sense that it is a much larger ‘game’ and more complex, but with the same principles in action.

  7. Did Dutton “know”somebody he worked with 20years ago?

    Had a drink with some former colleagues the other day and in walked a bloke I have not seen since the late 1980s.

    Did we know each other? Of course.

    And if at any time over the last 30 years if somebody had asked me if I knew him I would have said “yeah. ”

    In a tribal organisation like Queensland police I doubt anybody forgets.

  8. Fess

    Use the Opal Website linked to above. You can order your card and have it delivered to the address you are going to be staying at if you want to do everything online so not just a research exercise. Then its only to Uber or Public Transport which ever is cheaper? 🙂

    I don’t drive in Sydney. I don’t trust other drivers.

  9. Rossmcg

    I have ‘friends’ on facebook whom I haven’t met in person for over thirty years – even if they weren’t facebook friends I would still not only know them but identify them as people I’d be willing to help.

    Indeed, there is one woman who I feel I owe huge favours to and I haven’t seen her for almost forty years .

  10. “Re QT – I would love to see the packed opposition benches one day and without warning remain completely silent…”

    Seriously, the Speaker will be under instructions to toss Opposition members when the Dutton motion is debated. Maybe there is no need to instruct him – he knows his job. The Opposition members should remain totally silent to deprive him of the chance.

  11. shiftaling @ #95 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 9:23 am

    It is conceivable that a law could be passed that protected Arndt’s speech but not ISIS’

    I don’t think it’s valid to frame the proposal to force universities to provide a platform to any speaker with enough cash to pay the venue fee as a protection of free speech. Free speech has nothing to do with entitlement to access a particular venue or audience.

    guytaur @ #85 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 9:12 am

    The free speech argument is imported from the US. There it has legs due to the 1st Amendment in their Constitution.

    Even there, all the caveats I enumerated apply. Because people tend to grossly overestimate what “free speech” actually is.

    This cartoon is intended (and correct) for the U.S. audience, First Amendment and all:

  12. Rocket Rocket @ #11 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 5:27 am

    Socrates

    Wasn’t someone in this blog recently describing how they had worked for the company that had been tasked by government a few years ago to restart/restore one of the coal-fired power stations near Collie in WA, a job that cost $300 million, and was ultimately unsuccessful?

    That would be me. $312m down the drain when the project was abandoned after hitting further problems. The rarely used four AB units at Muja were permanently mothballed lat year after an inspection of the cooling towers found extensive problems that could not easily be fixed.

    The other four larger units at Muja continue to operate normally and an eye watering yearly maintenance cost.

    There are problems at one of the other coal power plants in WA too, however these are not on the public record and I don’t want a stint in William’s sin bin so I’m not able to repeat them.

  13. I will check it out when I arrive. We will have a car for our stay but I don’t want to drive in Sydney if I can avoid it.

    The streets are relatively free of traffic from 2am to 6am. You won’t have a problem if you drive during these hours.

    Around 6am the tradies and the B-Doubles start out. After 7am it’s the early commuters. By 8am the schoolkids and their mum’s are on the road, plus the delivery drivers and the taxis.

    After that it’s pretty-well gridlock until after midnight.

    And then there’s Friday.

  14. Some findings from the survey conducted by the Museum of Australian Democracy and University of Canberra before the latest federal leadership debacle :

    1. Only 16 per cent of Australians trust political parties, compared to 30 per cent for trade unions and 70 per cent for police.

    2. Government ministers and members of parliament — trusted by less than one in four — now rank as the least trusted compared to others such as GPs, judges, business people, journalists or trade unionists.

    3. Social trust between people has fallen to 47 per cent for the first time since 2001 when researchers first asked about it.

    “We are witnessing a vicious cycle of distrust and alienation from politics and the formal democratic process.”
    :::
    The research reveals two shifts: most voters care more about effective and competent government than promises of more dollars in their pockets; and many are voting tactically for independents. This became clear during focus group discussions, which were also part of the research.

    “Voters were saying politicians only care about marginal seats … So they said they voted for independents to attract more resources to their communities,” Professor Evans said.
    :::
    It’s a worrying picture, Professor Evans said. Declining political trust can threaten social cohesion and increase marginalisation. “It opens up more space for extreme left and extreme right … People will increasingly look outside the system for their own answers.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-20/in-a-nation-of-cynics-we-are-flocking-to-the-fringe/10281522

  15. I don’t drive in Sydney. I don’t trust other drivers.

    I drive in Sydney, but I’m one of the ‘other drivers’.

    But seriously, I never drive into the CBD or nearby areas like North Sydney – I use public transport. For someone staying in inner Sydney without a need to travel outside a radius of about 10-12 km of the CBD, you should be able to get by without a car. One drawback of public transport is it tends to be radial. For cross-suburban journeys you often have to travel most of the way in to the CBD then back out to your destination.

    As other posters have said, an Opal card would be your best bet.

  16. lizzie @ #60 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 8:42 am

    Took the words out of my mouth, Peter.

    Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP · 14h14 hours ago

    So the new PM has a trophy of an asylum boat to remind him that he stopped them, a flag pin to remind him who he serves. What next…a picture of himself on his desk to remind him who he is?

    And a lump of coal on his desk to remind him who pays the bills.

  17. Public transport is diabolically expensive (and slow, crowded and dirty) in Sydney, and is designed to rip off occasional users and tourists.
    I am not sure if there is a weekly anymore, but the Opal rate halves after 8 trips, and you can buy them everywhere without registering now.
    I am visiting for work for 10 days, and it has been a pleasure to walk just about everywhere in the Springtime- and often just as quick!

  18. Good news on the Sydney desalination plant.

    It has been given a clean Bill of health after a 6 year intensive study by the UNSW.

    Excess salt concentration is dispersed so efficiently that within 100 metres of the outlets concentrations are back to normal. Even within this radius only some “slow swimmers” (e.g. sponges, tube worms) are affected, but there is, to all intents and purposes zero impact on the environment, except in this very small area.

    It is powered exvlusively by solar power offsets.

    The professor leading the study said the design of the Kurnell pkant is excellent from top to bottom, and is being used as a model for other desal plants all over the world.

  19. From G:

    Tom Connell is reporting on Sky that Ann Sudmalis is about to accept the United Nations UN trip – which sends MPs to New York for three months.

  20. Bettina Arndt has the opportunity to speak. She’s done so. While she has been able to exercise her rights to speak -she’s visible on social media, for example – the rights of those who wish to hear her have been curtailed by a form of group censorship. In order to ensure she’s not heard, rights of free assembly have been abridged. That is hardly a good thing. Arndt is not sexist or racist. Is she trolling? I don’t know. I doubt it somehow.

    She seems to want to talk about socialisation and gendered power relations within or beyond patriarchy. The focus is on the personal freedom, security and well-being of women as well as the conduct expected of men within universities. The underlying issues are fear and the release from fear.

    We really ought to be able to talk about fears and be able to assemble to do it. This is important and I suspect for many it’s not easy. It’s also contested and requires taboos to be identified and held up for interrogation. We actually cannot repeal fears without also examining them.

  21. guytaur says:
    Thursday, September 20, 2018 at 9:12 am
    Darn

    In other words you concede defeat.

    Its not about free speech.

    Guytaur

    You can put words in my mouth and claim victory if it makes you feel superior. Be my guest.

    I will not be replying again. I am going out again and it will be for most of the day this time.

  22. briefly

    I have no problem with those arguing Arndt should speak. I just have a problem with those that use Free Speech as their argument.

    Your post is a much more reasonable approach.

  23. Darn

    I claim victory on this because you have no refutation on the Free Speech argument.

    As I said claim discrimination if you like. Thats fair enough of an argument to run. Just don’t use free speech as its not a valid argument.

  24. Rossmcg
    says:
    Thursday, September 20, 2018 at 9:34 am
    Did Dutton “know”somebody he worked with 20years ago?
    Had a drink with some former colleagues the other day and in walked a bloke I have not seen since the late 1980s.
    Did we know each other? Of course.
    And if at any time over the last 30 years if somebody had asked me if I knew him I would have said “yeah. ”
    In a tribal organisation like Queensland police I doubt anybody forgets.
    ___________________________________
    From what I understand Dutton did not have a close relationship with the former officer in question BUT did have a close friendship with another former officer who was also close friends with the au pair fella. It seems a case of a friend of a friend. Its the old friend of a friend.

  25. Steve777 @ #119 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 9:47 am

    I don’t drive in Sydney. I don’t trust other drivers.

    I drive in Sydney, but I’m one of the ‘other drivers’.

    But seriously, I never drive into the CBD or nearby areas like North Sydney – I use public transport. For someone staying in inner Sydney without a need to travel outside a radius of about 10-12 km of the CBD, you should be able to get by without a car. One drawback of public transport is it tends to be radial. For cross-suburban journeys you often have to travel most of the way in to the CBD then back out to your destination.

    As other posters have said, an Opal card would be your best bet.

    These areas of Sydney are surprisingly easy to navigate on foot, if you can avoid the occasional cyclist who seems to think that it is ok to use the footpath as his personal cycling track.

  26. I don’t drive in Sydney. I don’t trust other drivers.

    I drove in Sydney for years, every day, peak and offpeak, and Sydney drivers were great. Especially in peak.
    Adelaide on the other hand… hopeless. Most dont have a clue about merging. Blinkers on the lot of them. And SO much agro.

  27. Two retiring members on secondment to NY at the UN. Jenny Macklin and Ann Sudmalis. What a nice little cherry for the end of your career. More gravy train stuff. A nice little reward for Macklin for selling out those on the single mothers pension years ago.

  28. Darn

    To be clear. Discrimination is the majority shutting down a minority view.

    It can be the extremes of a violent mob burning crosses on someone’s lawn all the way to forming a silent line to block someones access to a workplace.

    Its always a question of balance and what is reasonable and unreasonable.

  29. These areas of Sydney are surprisingly easy to navigate on foot

    Definitely. With a travel card, the inner city areas are easily traversed through walking, short train trips, ferries, buses. It can be an enjoyable part of the experience.

    But I am fairly sure that single trips are still very expensive – and if you are travelling with someone it is often cheaper to just get a cab.

  30. Two retiring members on secondment to NY at the UN. Jenny Macklin and Ann Sudmalis

    Ha! Remember when they sent Cory on that 3 month junket. I can imagine the halls of the UN with Bernardi purposely striding along them… with nowhere to go and no-one to see.

    He repaid the favour on his return by quitting the party.

  31. I live on the Central Coast of NSW but don’t mind driving to and through Sydney every now and then in order to keep my skills up. I did grow up in the Inner City so maybe that’s got something to do with my lack of fear. 🙂

  32. David Crowe joins the list of crybaby whingers who are shocked- SHOCKED I tell youse – that the media has political favourites, and – gulp – even tries to destabilize governments, to the extent of actively trying to usurp even Prime Ministers.

    Even – Heaven forfend – Crowe’s employer, Fairfax, had a hand in it, via Jones and Hadley’s influence.

    When it’s their own man, the CPG protests, rents garments, gnashes teeth, flagellates, bursts into tears, cries foul, self harms and generally carries on like the bunch of pampered sooks they really are.

    But if Labor complains about unfair media coverage, or even goes so far as to allege concerted attempts to defrock Prime Ministers, the CPG tells them to toughen up, because all they are doing is simply blaming the umpire.

    It’s 11/10 for schadenfreude on this one, methinks.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-lodged-complaint-with-murdoch-over-coverage-in-last-days-of-his-prime-ministership-20180919-p504rd.html

  33. Another important consideration to me at least is the imposition into and the bias of media in political discourse

    We now have confirmation of the involvement of Murdoch and Stokes – then there is Costello at the Phoenix 9 Network

    These individuals are a danger to democracy as they seek to denigrate and influence consistent with their interests and their bias

    Their tentacles run to local papers, with the free over the fence Leader Press in Victoria now owned by Murdoch and promoting and denigrating in accordance with the Murdoch agenda

    As a start point I refuse to be influenced by media barons and their self serving agendas

    There are many in Commerce and Industry I do hold in the highest esteem – they are totally focused on delivery of goods and services to the benefit of their market and to the benefit of their Balance Sheet and the further expansion of their business models that Balance Sheet is invested into

    And that paying tax is not an impediment but confirmation that their business model is performing to expectation

    So they differ from many others – and they do not subscribe to the Organisations which are vocal on the inability of business to reward their employees by way of salary increases and which decry paying tax because paying tax is an impediment to Capital

  34. Simon² Katich®
    Ha! Remember when they sent Cory on that 3 month junket. I can imagine the halls of the UN with Bernardi purposely striding along them… with nowhere to go and no-one to see.
    ______________________
    Yes. What’s the point of sending a nationalist to the UN! Just probably made him more indignant at globalism. At least he had all the art galleries in NY to calm him.

  35. Cat

    To be honest I am with the WA government on cars. The more self driving computer controlled cars we have the less accidents costs injuries and deaths people will experience.

    One of the big savings in costs will be less car parking spaces needed in cities.
    The big cost of this will be employment.

    It was only 18 years ago that the idea of having all the music on demand in the air of a jukebox was fantasy. No iPods no iTunes just CD’s etc.

  36. guytaur says:
    Thursday, September 20, 2018 at 9:58 am
    briefly

    I have no problem with those arguing Arndt should speak. I just have a problem with those that use Free Speech as their argument.

    There is an issue of freedom. There are issues of fear too. People need to feel safe. They are entitled to that….we all entitled to that. Violence is a genuine problem, and it’s a gendered problem. Having said that, it does seem to me that we cannot deal with fear without listening to each other.

    Really, we cannot release ourselves from fear without also defending freedom too.

  37. briefly

    Thus argue discrimination not free speech.

    If you argue free speech you are in fact arguing that ISIS preachers and Nazis are free to speak at events without protest too.

    As I said to Darn reason is to balance the two things and not pretend free speech is absolute.

  38. Simon² Katich®
    says:
    Thursday, September 20, 2018 at 10:18 am
    At least he had all the art galleries in NY to calm him.
    He would have enjoyed that.
    As did I. Spent a couple of days just at MoMA.
    ____________________________
    Nice! What a luxury to be paid to be in NY for THREE MONTHS! There are so many galleries that you do need that amount of time to experience it all. In this case my jealousy and indignation are at equal levels.

  39. Simon² Katich® @ #134 Thursday, September 20th, 2018 – 7:02 am

    I don’t drive in Sydney. I don’t trust other drivers.

    I drove in Sydney for years, every day, peak and offpeak, and Sydney drivers were great. Especially in peak.
    Adelaide on the other hand… hopeless. Most dont have a clue about merging. Blinkers on the lot of them. And SO much agro.

    Agree completely.

    From my limited experiences driving in Sydney, with only a vague idea of where I was going, drivers were very accommodating when I suddenly realised I was in the wrong lane, something that was much rarer in Adelaide.

    Although, for me Launceston takes the cake especially when someone was turning a corner.

    Apparently down there indicators are not a warning of an intention to turn, but facilitate the turn itself and as a result are engaged as the hand passes the indicator arm whilst performing the turn.

    Absolute hell if you’re riding a bike, but it did give me valuable experience when I had to adapt to riding around here!!!! 🙂

  40. SK,
    Up until the end of primary school I lived in Ashfield and then until the end of high school I lived in Stanmore. After that during my Uni years I floated around Balmain and Birchgrove and Stanmore again, driving everywhere!

Comments Page 3 of 52
1 2 3 4 52

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *