Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Only the barest of improvements for the Coalition in the latest Essential poll, as reports of private polling in Wentworth confirm a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.

The fortnightly Essential Research result has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down just slightly from its 55-45 in the poll conducted in the very immediate wake of the leadership change on August 24. All we have of the primary vote at this stage is that the Coalition is up a point to 36%. Scott Morrison records a 39-27 lead on preferred prime minister, little changed from his 39-29 lead in the last poll. As with Newspoll, Essential’s second poll of the Morrison era includes its first approval ratings for the two leaders: Morrison debuts on 37% approval and 31% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 35% approval, up one on a month ago, and 43% disapproval, down one.

UPDATE: On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is down two to 37% – solidly lower than Newspoll – the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is up one to 8% (their second increase in a row, the opposite of what Newspoll has shown). The full report is here.

The poll finds 47% disapproving of the leadership change compared with 35% in support, widening a gap that was recorded at 40% to 35% in the last poll (the narrowness of which I found hard to credit). Presented with a series of propositions on the leadership change, 63% agreed with the proposition that they had lost trust in the government and wanted a new one; 60% that Morrison “was not elected by the people and has no legitimacy” and “needs to go to an election as soon as possible“; and 67% that they were “sick of the major parties changing their leaders” and “consider voting for a third party to send a message to them both”. Also included are a finding that 69% think a policy to reduce carbon emissions important, versus 23% for unimportant; and leadership attribute ratings which I may or may not take a closer look at when the full report comes out later today.

Also today, The Australian has some results from a poll of 1000 respondents in Wentworth. The poll was conducted for Andrew Bragg, the early Liberal preselection frontrunner who is now set for a seat in the Senate, who seems to be publicising it to back his decision to vacate the field in Wentworth for a woman. A straight voting intention question recorded the Liberal primary vote at just 39%, compared with Malcolm Turnbull’s 62.3% in 2016, with Labor’s Tim Murray on 25% and Kerryn Phelps, who is expected to announce shortly she will run as an independent, on 20%. However, a secondary voting intention specifying a female Liberal candidate found the party’s vote increasing to 43%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,254 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Boerwar

    A short time ago it was ‘Albo gave a speech” #leadershit all over the online GG. Today?
    .
    Lib fury at Howard, Turnbull intervention

    DEBORAH CORNWALL, DENNIS SHANAHAN
    Party elders say the two former PMs should be held personally responsible
    .
    He’s trying to bring us down

    Barnaby Joyce says the former prime minister is “wrecking and sniping” and part of an “active campaign to try and remove us”.
    .
    Revolt within walls of Rome

    Malcolm Turnbull has proven he’s Tiberius on Twitter; his latest tweet demonstrates his intention to take revenge on his colleagues
    .
    Bishop wants clarity on Dutton

    Julie Bishop refuses to rule out voting to refer Peter Dutton to the High Court.

  4. 7.30 now running an “expose” of the Sydney Light Rail project.

    Businesses from one end to the other of it have gone broke. It is at least a year behind schedule. The current court case will take years to sort out.

    It is a fucking disaster.

    Don’t worry about Cost/Benefit. Don’t worry about which local businesses will benefit from whatever intangible bonuses.

    It’s all about giving money to The Mates – the same guys who spent $60 million to demolish a few old toll kiosks at the Southern end of the Harbour Bridge , to save 10 seconds travel time – to dig holes, and burrow tunnels from nowhere to nowhere. They could have been knocked over and carted away in a weekend for a couple of slabs of beer and a few bucks on Bobcat hire

    I saw The Scam with my own eyes back in the late 1990s when I encountered the carpetbaggers building the North-West Rail Link across the bottom of my tiny little 5-house cul de sac in Beecroft. I eyeballed these people, face-to-face. I looked into their souls and saw only dead hearts and greed.

    It’s the same with North-Connex, West-Connex, both the Metros going through (where the trains are too small for the stations, so everything has to be shut down while it’s rebuilt), the tollways and the hundreds of thousands of apartments being built everywhere, with no tenants.

    The scam isn’t in the dodgy Cost/Benefit figures.

    The scam is that the mates build these things, dig the holes, and collect the tolls.

    It goes no further than that, and fuck the future.

  6. Maybe someone could start a sweep to nominate the date on which Morrison attains ’embattled’ status. For this purpose, maybe ‘beleaguered’ could be accepted. Criterion would be something like one or other word being used in relation to Morrison in two mainstream media outlets.

    P.S. Trivia – someone mentioned earlier that 15% of the population of Wentworth is Jewish. I have been unable to confirm this but Wentworth does have the highest Jewish population of any Australian electorate. If 15% true, that is a higher proportion than New York City (about 1 in 8, i.e. 12.5%)

  9. @DTT: Yes, that’s true, but my point is that the version we sing is essentially the one used at Federation which removed all of those references. The only change (I’m pretty sure) since Federation is to change sons to all.

    The current 2nd verse is:

    Beneath our radiant Southern Cross
    We’ll toil with hearts and hands;
    To make this Commonwealth of ours
    Renowned of all the lands;
    For those who’ve come across the seas
    We’ve boundless plains to share;
    With courage let us all combine
    To Advance Australia Fair.
    In joyful strains then let us sing,
    Advance Australia Fair.

    There’s not much in that to take offence at. Maybe you could object to Australia being part of the Commonwealth. You could argue that ‘across the seas’ is not inclusive of first Australians, but the best evidence is that the Aboriginal people too, came by boat at first: https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/migration-to-australia/

    Actually I rather like the second verse, singing at every speech or announcement of refugee or immigration policy would make a rather handy protest.

    I’ve gotten off track, but I guess the ultimate question here is, if you remove all the discriminatory parts of something, is it still discriminatory by association? In my view, if it is then there’s no hope for any of us.

  10. Steve777 says:

    Maybe someone could start a sweep to nominate the date on which Morrison attains ’embattled’

    Or perhaps date declared “Embuggered’ by the Bludger Lounge audience at the Colosseum in the Xtian v Lions tournament?

  12. “Julie Bishop refuses to rule out voting to refer Peter Dutton to the High Court.”

    More like Julie saying she will vote (yes) for clarity, which means Dutton is toast if the vote comes up in the house.

  15. poroti:

    [‘Julie Bishop refuses to rule out voting to refer Peter Dutton to the High Court.’]

    That would be telling if any of the Tory female members were to hold true to their convictions. Bishop is in a unique position to change the culture, but even she’s not game to do so – all nuanced talk, in my view.

  17. I remember when they got rid of God Save the Queen. At Victorian public schools we had pledged allegiance to the Queen and then sung GStQ every morning. Then suddenly it was gone. I was shocked. Was i not pledged to the Queen anymore? I had wanted to join the Grenadier Guards and get one of those large furry bearskin hats.

    All these quasi-Republican moves have actually hampered true Republicanism. We should have stuck with God Save the Queen until it drove us crazy and we changed not just the song but the constitution.

  19. Both Turnbull and Bishop slipped their shivs in under Morrison’s and Dutton’s ribs today. Practiced pros, they did so with a minimum of fuss and a minimum of shouting.
    Quick, clean, economical.

  20. Sir Henry Parkes 621pm

    A collective thanks to everyone else who has welcomed me and a thanks in advance to all those who will.
    I’m glad I live in an age where I can, at my age, use social media. But I’m sort of glad it didn’t exist when I was a teenager.
    Given the level of online bullying that exists today, I suspect it would have been much the same.
    I was occasionally bullied at high school, but at least once I was home, my parents’ front door closed to the world, I could relax in my own abode. It must be hell for kids when their tormentors pursue them all the way into their private spaces.

    It happened to one of our children early on in high school. And that was just a minor dose but pretty bad. Fortunately none before or since then to any of them.

    Last year I ran into someone who was a school psychologist and they said this was the major component of their work. They said that you would think kids would turn off or disconnect but they feel almost compelled to stay online and “follow” their own torment. It is really sad, and obviously sometimes has led to tragic consequences.

  22. I was occasionally bullied at high school, but at least once I was home, my parents’ front door closed to the world, I could relax in my own abode. It must be hell for kids when their tormentors pursue them all the way into their private spaces.
    _________________________
    I was the school bully and I had a wonderful time.

  25. S777
    Our plains are not ‘boundless’.
    Our plains are constrained by huge distances from markets and resources, by vast hordes of feral pests, by an every increasing assemblage of environmental and agricultural weeds, by a horrible lack of water, by prolonged and unpredictable periods of drought, by occasional vast floods, by poor drainage systems, by oceans of salt, by endless sand dunes, and by low nutrient, low structure crap soils.

  26. At all hours of the day and night McMahon took soundings from contacts in business, the media and government. His frequent phone calls, some from Eric Robinson’s home on the Isle of Capri at Surfers Paradise, inspired Whitlam to dub him ‘Tiberius with a telephone’.

    Villa Jovis (“Villa of Jupiter”) is a Roman palace on Capri, southern Italy, built by emperor Tiberius and completed in AD 27. Tiberius mainly ruled from there until his death in AD 37.

    Apparently, the main motivations for Tiberius’s move from Rome to Capri were his wariness of the political manoeuvring in Rome and a lingering fear of assassination. The villa is situated at a very secluded spot on the island and Tiberius’s quarters in the north and east of the palatial villa were particularly difficult to reach and heavily guarded.

    The Villa Jovis is also, at least according to Suetonius, the place where Tiberius engaged in wild debauchery. Modern historians regard these tales as sensationalized, but Suetonius’ stories at least paint a picture of how Tiberius was perceived by the Roman people at the time.

    Source Wikipedia

  27. @DVC

    Except most of what the song represents doesn’t fit with the time.

    locking children up, politicians attacking children because they don’t want to sing it, then getting death threats or abusive from old white males.

    Not really “Young And Free”, but more like “Old and Jailed”.

  28. All these quasi-Republican moves have actually hampered true Republicanism. We should have stuck with God Save the Queen until it drove us crazy and we changed not just the song but the constitution.

    I suspect this is why so many monarchists openly discuss “bypassing” Charles and making William king when the current monarch departs. Deep down they know that Charles and Camilla as king and queen will probably help the Republican cause.

  30. I suspect this is why so many monarchists openly discuss “bypassing” Charles and making William king when the current monarch departs. Deep down they know that Charles and Camilla as king and queen will probably help the Republican cause.
    _____________________________
    I have actually heard it said by a monarchist recently that inviting Harry and Megan to inherit the Australian crown instead of it going to distant William would be a great move. Harry and Megan could shack up on Sydney Harbor, have lots of good looking kids and create our own cadet branch of the House of Whatever.

  35. Boerwar says:

    S777
    Our plains are not ‘boundless’

    Well they would have looked like that to all the immigrants from Little Piddlington on Thames.

  37. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Thursday, September 13, 2018 at 8:27 pm

    Zimmerman doesn’t move an inch in Sc*Mo’s tweet’

    What does this mean, please?

  39. PvO’s response to that silly Morrison tweet:

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    46m46 minutes ago
    The black knight thinks he’s winning….

  45. “nonsense that floats my boat”

    Your response confirms my view of your contribution and of your lack of credibility

    The growth industry in the Australia of today is further education, thru our education campuses and marketed globally resulting in the student registrations we see

    Those who avail of that further education and then choose to remain as residents giving the Australian community the benefit of that further education add to the skills and capacities of our society

    Just for starters

    Migration has transformed Australia and will continue to do so

  47. Poroti@8:05pm
    Or sweep stakes for the date when Dutton asks the PM to call party room meeting for spill because he has numbers like he did last time.
    🙂

  49. “Scotty from the Shire is tweeting this excerpt from QT today, and he has added a sound track. This is not a joke…”

    Please God, send the Rapture and take this fecking cretin away!

    PS: don’t feel bad about leaving me behind. All good.

  50. The subtitles for that footage are going to be an absolute delight.
    ‘Hands up everyone who thinks I am a complete dickhead!’
    ‘Again!’

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