Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Only the barest of improvements for the Coalition in the latest Essential poll, as reports of private polling in Wentworth confirm a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.

The fortnightly Essential Research result has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down just slightly from its 55-45 in the poll conducted in the very immediate wake of the leadership change on August 24. All we have of the primary vote at this stage is that the Coalition is up a point to 36%. Scott Morrison records a 39-27 lead on preferred prime minister, little changed from his 39-29 lead in the last poll. As with Newspoll, Essential’s second poll of the Morrison era includes its first approval ratings for the two leaders: Morrison debuts on 37% approval and 31% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 35% approval, up one on a month ago, and 43% disapproval, down one.

UPDATE: On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is down two to 37% – solidly lower than Newspoll – the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is up one to 8% (their second increase in a row, the opposite of what Newspoll has shown). The full report is here.

The poll finds 47% disapproving of the leadership change compared with 35% in support, widening a gap that was recorded at 40% to 35% in the last poll (the narrowness of which I found hard to credit). Presented with a series of propositions on the leadership change, 63% agreed with the proposition that they had lost trust in the government and wanted a new one; 60% that Morrison “was not elected by the people and has no legitimacy” and “needs to go to an election as soon as possible“; and 67% that they were “sick of the major parties changing their leaders” and “consider voting for a third party to send a message to them both”. Also included are a finding that 69% think a policy to reduce carbon emissions important, versus 23% for unimportant; and leadership attribute ratings which I may or may not take a closer look at when the full report comes out later today.

Also today, The Australian has some results from a poll of 1000 respondents in Wentworth. The poll was conducted for Andrew Bragg, the early Liberal preselection frontrunner who is now set for a seat in the Senate, who seems to be publicising it to back his decision to vacate the field in Wentworth for a woman. A straight voting intention question recorded the Liberal primary vote at just 39%, compared with Malcolm Turnbull’s 62.3% in 2016, with Labor’s Tim Murray on 25% and Kerryn Phelps, who is expected to announce shortly she will run as an independent, on 20%. However, a secondary voting intention specifying a female Liberal candidate found the party’s vote increasing to 43%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,254 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 46
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  1. lizzie I agree. I think Labor has for many years not tried to win the battle of ideas on basic issues. Just sat there dumbly and taken it. It shouldn’t

  2. I would be happy to consider a population increase for Australia as soon as we fix the current environmental deficits – many of which are getting worse, not better.

  3. ar@5:30pm
    Did you have a chance of reading my post @12:22pm
    The current ALP candidate to Wentworth appears to be a very good choice.
    That shows that people from business community are willing to be a candidate of ALP.

  4. Lovey @ #1984 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 6:08 pm

    P1

    It looks like a broad Mission Statement to me. One which is based on “carrying capacity” in regards to the environment and which should be the sole basis of population policy. It assumes that an absolute population number can be derived, and changes with time. It also assumes that environmental degradation is directly proportional to population numbers.

    I was asked what a population policy would look like, not to spell out a policy in detail. Naturally it is a broad brush outline, consisting (as I was asked) of only a few sentences.

    Carrying capacity is a lot more than simply “the environment”. It must take into account a wealth of other factors. For a quick insight into some other things that need to be considered, see here – http://dashboard.carryingcapacity.com.au/

    And, of course all these things change over time. Improvements in agriculture may increase it, as will lowering our living standards. Climate change will probably decrease it.

  5. lizzie @ #1999 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 3:28 pm

    Watching QT today (for my sins) it felt as if every question received the same shouty answer which always included a reference to bullying unions and Labor “stealing your money”. It became very tiresome and I sometimes wonder how the Oppn can sit there are endure it.

    They should just take in a recording of the Fraud, every answer is the same.

    I found myself finishing sentence before he did. 🙂

  6. @Rocket Rocket

    1.52 on a hung parliament does look a bit steep. It’s about the same odds given for the ALP forming govt in any form.
    Assuming a Lib/Nats/Green minority govt is not possible there are not that many pathways that would result in Lib/Nat minority govt.

    So it’s implying a very low probability of the ALP winning a majority.
    Which I think is wrong, the Vic ALP appears ready, energised, keeps rolling out those policy things and has the tailwind of what’s going in Canberra.

  8. Andrew Probyn‏Verified account @andrewprobyn · 55m55 minutes ago

    Senior Liberal figures, including Arthur Sinodinos, have called on Dave Sharma to withdraw from tonight’s Wentworth preselection to make way for a female candidate to aid ScoMo’s wishes. But Sharma might have numbers and HASN’T withdrawn … Tight contest! @politicsabc #auspol

  9. lizzie @ #2008 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 3:36 pm

    Andrew Probyn‏Verified account @andrewprobyn · 55m55 minutes ago

    Senior Liberal figures, including Arthur Sinodinos, have called on Dave Sharma to withdraw from tonight’s Wentworth preselection to make way for a female candidate to aid ScoMo’s wishes. But Sharma might have numbers and HASN’T withdrawn … Tight contest! @politicsabc #auspol

    I can see this all blowing up in their faces.

    No plan or strategy.

    Basically no idea what they want to achieve!
    🙂

  10. I heard some of question time too.

    About now, Labor should be going about selecting the most one-eyed unscrupulous ratbag in their ranks for nomination as the next Speaker.

  13. There is NO way now, as the Liberal Party have telegraphed their intent to pre-select a woman specifically for the purpose of giving them an advantage in the by-election in Wentworth, that they are actually going to obtain that sort of advantage now, as a result.

    It’s like the husband who tells his wife after a tiff, ‘I bought you these flowers to make things better.’… Instead of just buying the flowers and giving her a pleasant and unexpected surprise.

  14. Work to Rule

    Yes – Labor has 45/88 at the moment and should regain Melton for 46. So even if they lost several to the Greens I am fairly confident they will win a few in the east/outer east of Melbourne to get 45 or more total.

    Also I have heard the Liberals are planning to not run candidates in at least four inner Melbourne seats that can really only be won by Labor or the Greens. I suppose this is may be smart tactical move, but surely it will have an effect on their Upper House votes in those seats.

  23. Barney in Go Dau @ #2018 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2016 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    I hope Dave Sharma doesn’t win. He’s a quality candidate.

    The problem if that happens and the female candidate doesn’t do well, then the RWFW will just say, “merit”! 🙂

    It’s not a thesis that can be applied selectively like that. You have to apply a sliding scale to the choice of candidates. If one turns up who achieved 100% in his/her high school leaving examination, and has shown in his/her life thenceforth that he/she has qualities that are exceptional, and then expresses an interest in entering politics, then you open the door for them, no matter what gender they are.

    Which is not to say that the Liberal Party doesn’t desperately need quotas for female representation. They do. It’s just that you don’t force a woman into a seat over a man if that man is light years better qualified for parliament.

  24. @C@tmomma

    I hope Dave Sharma doesn’t win. He’s a quality candidate.

    Agree! I guess this will tell us how dysfunctional the Libs are- if they do NOT preselect the candidate whois most likely to hold the seat for them.

  25. C@tmomma @ #2023 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 4:02 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2018 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2016 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    I hope Dave Sharma doesn’t win. He’s a quality candidate.

    The problem if that happens and the female candidate doesn’t do well, then the RWFW will just say, “merit”! 🙂

    It’s not a thesis that can be applied selectively like that. You have to apply a sliding scale to the choice of candidates. If one turns up who achieved 100% in his/her high school leaving examination, and has shown in his/her life thenceforth that he/she has qualities that are exceptional, and then expresses an interest in entering politics, then you open the door for them, no matter what gender they are.

    Which is not to say that the Liberal Party doesn’t desperately need quotas for female representation. They do. It’s just that you don’t force a woman into a seat over a man if that man is light years better qualified for parliament.

    I’m talking about RWFW,

    you’re talking about rational human beings! 🙂

  26. It’s just that you don’t force a woman into a seat over a man if that man is light years better qualified for parliament.

    Agreed. I’ve seen several instances where women or other candidates of diverse background were recruited solely because of their attributes and because the organisation needed X diversity in mangement, executive or other work unit and they bombed big time. Simply because they weren’t up to the job in the first place and should never have been appointed.

  30. Just robopolled for Victorian State politics. Options on which issue most important to you. Liberal s getting data.
    First option was local traffic congestion, sorry can’t remember the rest.

  35. C@tmomma @ #2023 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2018 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2016 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    I hope Dave Sharma doesn’t win. He’s a quality candidate.

    The problem if that happens and the female candidate doesn’t do well, then the RWFW will just say, “merit”! 🙂

    It’s not a thesis that can be applied selectively like that. You have to apply a sliding scale to the choice of candidates. If one turns up who achieved 100% in his/her high school leaving examination, and has shown in his/her life thenceforth that he/she has qualities that are exceptional, and then expresses an interest in entering politics, then you open the door for them, no matter what gender they are.

    Which is not to say that the Liberal Party doesn’t desperately need quotas for female representation. They do. It’s just that you don’t force a woman into a seat over a man if that man is light years better qualified for parliament.

    Alternatively you could put the effort into identifying suitably qualified and talented women so that in 10 to 15 years you don’t have that problem.

  42. Viewing QT today, in fact any day, we see Morrison carrying on in the loud, hectoring manner of his predecessors. He’s learned nothing. Many say that Shorten lacks charisma; that may be so, but he’s plodded on, not exactly setting the world on fire, but nonetheless has made Labor competitive throughout save for a brief period in 2015 when Turnbull promised the world. The Tories have almost completely underestimated Shorten, to their detriment.

  43. I presume this is Morrison’s preferred Wentworth Lib candidate.

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    9h9 hours ago
    Wentworth preselection front runner Katherine O’Regan is a former Australian Coal Association consultant, as was just pointed out to me by a Liberal. Pretty sure they weren’t trying to help her chances by telling me… #auspol

  47. “Watching QT today (for my sins) it felt as if every question received the same shouty answer which always included a reference to bullying unions and Labor “stealing your money”. It became very tiresome and I sometimes wonder how the Oppn can sit there are endure it.”

    Can’t Labor complain about unparliamentary language, accusing them and their allies of ‘stealing’? The main thieves I see around the place are Liberal mates – property speculators, the energy cartel, the Big Banks and financial “planners” for a start. And who knows what’s going on behind the scenes with the Big Miners, especially Coal. No union every robbed anyone of their life savings. When the Coalition carries on like this, Labor should constantly raise points of order.

    P.S. welcome Sir Henry.

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