Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Only the barest of improvements for the Coalition in the latest Essential poll, as reports of private polling in Wentworth confirm a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.

The fortnightly Essential Research result has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down just slightly from its 55-45 in the poll conducted in the very immediate wake of the leadership change on August 24. All we have of the primary vote at this stage is that the Coalition is up a point to 36%. Scott Morrison records a 39-27 lead on preferred prime minister, little changed from his 39-29 lead in the last poll. As with Newspoll, Essential’s second poll of the Morrison era includes its first approval ratings for the two leaders: Morrison debuts on 37% approval and 31% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 35% approval, up one on a month ago, and 43% disapproval, down one.

UPDATE: On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is down two to 37% – solidly lower than Newspoll – the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is up one to 8% (their second increase in a row, the opposite of what Newspoll has shown). The full report is here.

The poll finds 47% disapproving of the leadership change compared with 35% in support, widening a gap that was recorded at 40% to 35% in the last poll (the narrowness of which I found hard to credit). Presented with a series of propositions on the leadership change, 63% agreed with the proposition that they had lost trust in the government and wanted a new one; 60% that Morrison “was not elected by the people and has no legitimacy” and “needs to go to an election as soon as possible“; and 67% that they were “sick of the major parties changing their leaders” and “consider voting for a third party to send a message to them both”. Also included are a finding that 69% think a policy to reduce carbon emissions important, versus 23% for unimportant; and leadership attribute ratings which I may or may not take a closer look at when the full report comes out later today.

Also today, The Australian has some results from a poll of 1000 respondents in Wentworth. The poll was conducted for Andrew Bragg, the early Liberal preselection frontrunner who is now set for a seat in the Senate, who seems to be publicising it to back his decision to vacate the field in Wentworth for a woman. A straight voting intention question recorded the Liberal primary vote at just 39%, compared with Malcolm Turnbull’s 62.3% in 2016, with Labor’s Tim Murray on 25% and Kerryn Phelps, who is expected to announce shortly she will run as an independent, on 20%. However, a secondary voting intention specifying a female Liberal candidate found the party’s vote increasing to 43%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,254 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Lovey @ #1911 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 3:24 pm

    P1

    Give us all an idea of a population policy, in a few sentences.

    The population policy would …

    1. Establish our long-term sustainable population, and also establish a mechanism for re-evaluating it – e.g. every 5 years, or as technology and climate changes.

    2. Establish a desired target population – which should ideally be less than the sustainable population.

    3. Establish the preferred mechanisms for reaching the target population – typically, this would be via adjusting annual rates of migration, but may also include adjusting fertility rates – e.g. by encouraging or discouraging large families.

    This would then feed into the migration policy, which would establish the precise makeup of our annual migration – e.g. the skilled, family and humanitarian components.

  5. The wording sure does look like an admission of bullying .

    No ‘illegal’ tactics used by Liberals: PM

    Mr Morrison has responded to claims from fellow Liberal Julia Banks, who is quitting politics over “appalling” bullying, intimidation and harassment.

    https://outline.com/febtug

  6. P1

    Thanks. This looks like it really boils down to one issue – a “sustainable” population. I am guessing you are talking about environmentally rather than economically.

  7. This “pick a female” strategy in Wentworth could backfire big-time if: (a) it is not a good candidate and (b) it looks like tokenism. It’s already got way too much publicity. It might do a lot more harm than good.

  8. Peter van Onselen
    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    1h
    How funny is this: Peter Dutton tells Malcolm Turnbull to act more like John Howard and don’t contradict the Libs as a former PM. A few hours later Howard comes out advocating a different candidate in Wentworth to the one Scott Morrison wants.

  9. P1 @5:04PM.

    That looks pretty sensible. There’s not much we can or should do about natural increase – a tax or welfare incentive here and there perhaps, parental leave requirements and so forth, natural growth unlikely to be a problem for Australia in the foreseeable future.

    We might need to adjust immigration rates up and down according to economic and employment conditions without losing touch of the long-term plan – keeping the rate close to target over the economic cycle.

    The problem now is seems to be that no one seems to now know what immigration is for.

  10. Just saw some interesting odds

    Victorian election – majority govt (Labor or Coalition) 2.35, not majority govt 1.52

    NSW election – majority govt 1.30, not majority govt 3.50

    So implies a 61% chance of hung parliament in Victoria. Seems too high?
    And a 27% chance in NSW. Seems too low?

  11. I think Turnbull will sabotage the Wentworth by election by advising voters to back Labor or an Independent.He will no doubt be on Qanda to tell his side of the story before the date,maybe in his leather jacket.He will be wanting his $2 million dollars worth that he put into the party after all.

  12. If the PM has attempted to “induce” a Member of Parliament to behave in a certain manner a Breach of Commonwealth laws may well have occurred

  13. Rocket

    I suspect that a Lab- Greens coalition in VIC is expected by the punters.

    In NSW i wager not a lot of betting has occured post Wagga.

  14. antonbruckner11 @ #1954 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    This “pick a female” strategy in Wentworth could backfire big-time if: (a) it is not a good candidate and (b) it looks like tokenism. It’s already got way too much publicity. It might do a lot more harm than good.

    Yes, but it could be quite smart of Labor to quietly pick a female too. If they haven’t announced their pick already.

  15. a r says:
    Thursday, September 13, 2018 at 5:30 pm

    ‘Yes, but it could be quite smart of Labor to quietly pick a female too. If they haven’t announced their pick already.’

    Maybe. Maybe not. Labor does not have to bastardize its selection processes in order to pretend to be concerned about female representation.

  16. a r @ #1964 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 2:30 pm

    antonbruckner11 @ #1954 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    This “pick a female” strategy in Wentworth could backfire big-time if: (a) it is not a good candidate and (b) it looks like tokenism. It’s already got way too much publicity. It might do a lot more harm than good.

    Yes, but it could be quite smart of Labor to quietly pick a female too. If they haven’t announced their pick already.

    Already sorted and he’s been in the news with Turnbull’s son backing him.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-candidate-murray-begins-campaigning-in-wentworth/10230206

  17. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1937 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 2:30 pm

    Hi Bludgers. I’ve been regularly reading Poll Bludger for years and have finally decided to dip my own toe in its waters. My political positions are largely in-line with most opinions here so I don’t anticipate too many disagreements. Where such differences do arise I hope to engage as respectfully as possible, as flame wars can be disheartening. I probably won’t be seen here as often as the usual regulars, but I hope to be able to participate in discussions a few times each week. Anyway, hope to be posting again soon.

    Welcome Sir Henry

  18. phoenix
    If the Republicans finally realise that they will lose control of the Senate as well as the house, will they try to get rid of Trump before the midterms?

    That’s not how their system works.. The GOP members of Congress are all in the wheel house of the Titanic with Trump & all the doors are locked.

  20. RR @5:26PM. “So implies a 61% chance of hung parliament in Victoria. Seems too high?
    And a 27% chance in NSW. Seems too low?”

    Don’t know about Victoria, I thought it might be closer, but NSW seems about right. The Coalition Government is experiencing all sorts of problems with the trains and road and rail projects. I would say that odds have closed from a near-certain return of the Government, but for whatever reason, the Opposition and its leader here are still almost invisible. The Telecrap is not conducting the sort of feral anti- State Labor campaign that is apparently being conducted by the Herald Sun in Victoria. Maybe it thinks it doesn’t have to.

  24. Socrates says:
    Thursday, September 13, 2018 at 7:54 am
    Speaking of Julia Banks I am confused. I thought women were not bullied in the Liberal Party after all?
    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-13/julia-banks-slams-undermining-behaviour-calls-for-gender-quotas/10239102

    So were Gichuhi and Reynolds lying? Is our great leader ScumMo the smiling face of chauvinism?
    —-
    I’m confused too.

    Apparently, had Julie Bishop witnessed this terrible behaviour when she was a partner in a prestigious firm, employing 200, she would have called it out, BUT when, in Canberra, and when she witnessed it, she forgot to say anything.

    Only when she was on the receiving end, did she speak out.

    Bit late to the party, Jules.

    I have a distinct dislike for women who use flattery to get where they want to be. Including flirting with deposed leaders, promising them the world, and then reneging.

    You reap what you sow, Jules.

    Enjoy your life on the back bench.

  25. grimace
    Thank you for being the first Bludger to welcome me.
    I have chosen Sir Henry Parkes as my Bludger title because I have a high regard for Australia’s ”Father of Federation”, who was also its father of public education and who pioneered much in the way of public health and promoted early progressive political causes.
    The old man certainly had his faults, such as his attitudes to Irish and Chinese immigration. But I do believe he deserves more recognition than he has received. Maybe I can do a little here to achieve that.

  26. So what has immigration added to the Australian Nation?

    Population growth is a fact

    And it invites opportunity – including to provide for that population growth

    There are cities which have a population greater than the population of Australia

    Australia is actually very low in terms of destination, where the USA leads

    Do you allow everyone in?

    Obviously there are restrictions but to make those restrictions a numerical restriction is a nonsense and self defeating

    “You can not apply to immigrate because we have already allowed our quota in

    Try again next year and you may be further up the pecking order hence allowed in”

    Sorry

    Wrong assessment criteria

    It is about contribution, as a the very great number of those already resident in Australia have and are contributing (including in menial employment such as our Aged Care providers, and paid a pittance so exploitation)

  30. Labor have selected Tim Murray (about 3 months ago) for Wentworth. There is quite a good article from AltMedia (Sydney, Inner West and Eastern Suburbs Independent rag) on Murray. They are quite supportive, which is interesting, because they will often support an independent or the Greens.

    The King of Wentworth is dead and the loudest whispers from the court are not about the revolving door of Liberal contenders jostling for preselection, but of Labor’s thronal aspirant Tim Murray.

    When Murray won Labor preselection he expected to run against Malcolm Turnbull and did not rate his chances very highly.

    ….. Murray is not a Labor apparatchik out of Sussex Street, but a Mandarin speaking surf loving member of the Bronte/Waverley branch from a solid business background with a deep knowledge of developments gained from doing business in China.

    http://www.altmedia.net.au/tim-murray/134008?mc_cid=bb67180d67&mc_eid=c6a44b6736

  31. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1975 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    grimace
    Thank you for being the first Bludger to welcome me.
    I have chosen Sir Henry Parkes as my Bludger title because I have a high regard for Australia’s ”Father of Federation”, who was also its father of public education and who pioneered much in the way of public health and promoted early progressive political causes.
    The old man certainly had his faults, such as his attitudes to Irish and Chinese immigration. But I do believe he deserves more recognition than he has received. Maybe I can do a little here to achieve that.

    From another newbie – Welcome Sir Henry 🙂

  32. I would have thought that the chance of a hung Parliament would largely depend on two factors

    1. the number of non-major Party Members
    2. the 2 Party preferred

    Every non-major Party Member reduces the pool of seats from which a major Party needs to win to get a majority.

    So, in the current federal Parliament assuming the same number of independents (5), to form a majority you need to win 76 of 146 seats that’s 52.05% as opposed to 50.33% of the seats if there were no independents.

  34. P1

    It looks like a broad Mission Statement to me. One which is based on “carrying capacity” in regards to the environment and which should be the sole basis of population policy. It assumes that an absolute population number can be derived, and changes with time. It also assumes that environmental degradation is directly proportional to population numbers.

  39. Lovey says:
    Thursday, September 13, 2018 at 6:08 pm
    P1

    It looks like a broad Mission Statement to me. One which is based on “carrying capacity” in regards to the environment and which should be the sole basis of population policy. It assumes that an absolute population number can be derived, and changes with time. It also assumes that environmental degradation is directly proportional to population numbers.

    …sounds very Malthusian to me….

  40. Seeing the news today of the two toddlers killed by toxic smoke through a toy catching fire on an open bar heater, I didn’t know what to feel, following the short discussion we had the other day on heaters and danger.

  42. Asha@2:00pm
    I cannot believe PM said that Drought is a “necessary evil”.
    Did he really say that? Link please.
    Didn’t LNP learn anything from Young and Wagga-Wagga by-elections?

  43. Observer I struggle to find a “megacity” – in other words greater than 10 million population – that is a shining example of comfort and modernity. Most that I know of feature physical isolation, poor work life balance and usually, lots of slum areas.

  44. Observer @ #1976 Thursday, September 13th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    Population growth is a fact

    Our population is growing only because of migration. Like most developed countries, our inherent fertility rate is below replacement level.

    Do you allow everyone in?

    Of course not. We don’t allow everyone in at present. Not by a long shot.

    And no party (except the Greens) has a policy that would ever allow everyone in.

    Obviously there are restrictions but to make those restrictions a numerical restriction is a nonsense and self defeating

    Ummm. We have numerical restrictions at present. It is just that the number is arbitrary, and too high to be sustainable.

    “You can not apply to immigrate because we have already allowed our quota in

    Try again next year and you may be further up the pecking order hence allowed in”

    Wouldn’t this be better than what we do now, which is just arbitrarily disallow them, or allow them to bypass the system based on wealth?

    It is about contribution, as a the very great number of those already resident in Australia have and are contributing (including in menial employment such as our Aged Care providers, and paid a pittance so exploitation)

    This has nothing to do with the argument. No-one here is denying that migrants don’t contribute to Australia. Nor that migration should be halted.

  45. A collective thanks to everyone else who has welcomed me and a thanks in advance to all those who will.
    I’m glad I live in an age where I can, at my age, use social media. But I’m sort of glad it didn’t exist when I was a teenager.
    Given the level of online bullying that exists today, I suspect it would have been much the same.
    I was occasionally bullied at high school, but at least once I was home, my parents’ front door closed to the world, I could relax in my own abode. It must be hell for kids when their tormentors pursue them all the way into their private spaces.

  47. Sir Henry Parkes

    Also welcome – and yes the work those few people did to join those six British colonies together is taken for granted. Hindsight bias I think is the term (I am doing a lot of stats at the moment!). Amazing in retrospect they got any sort of consensus considering say the problems referenda have had getting up since Federation.

  48. Lovey,

    I think its reasonable to consider what the consequence of larger populations in Australia actually are. Its more than a “carrying capacity” issue though. Its also one of amenity and quality of life. And to that end I don’t think there is any hard number.

    Even in pure environmental terms you have to consider highly wasteful practices such as meat eating. If everyone were vegetarian, the “carrying capacity” of Australia would be several times higher. And whilst I’m vegan and would love to see people abandon meat eating as barbaric as well as environmentally unsound, I actually think that issues such as amenity and quality of life will kick in long before we reach any hard environmental/technological limit.

    One other thing. In terms of amenity and quality of life, what we are lacking badly is high speed transport. There’s a lot of coastline outside of Sydney. The problem has always been slow transport.

  49. Watching QT today (for my sins) it felt as if every question received the same shouty answer which always included a reference to bullying unions and Labor “stealing your money”. It became very tiresome and I sometimes wonder how the Oppn can sit there and endure it.

  50. Put it this way. I agree that there are limits to growth. I don’t think we have cause to panic. But we should be answering these questions in a way that involves actual science and engineering.

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