Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Only the barest of improvements for the Coalition in the latest Essential poll, as reports of private polling in Wentworth confirm a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.

The fortnightly Essential Research result has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down just slightly from its 55-45 in the poll conducted in the very immediate wake of the leadership change on August 24. All we have of the primary vote at this stage is that the Coalition is up a point to 36%. Scott Morrison records a 39-27 lead on preferred prime minister, little changed from his 39-29 lead in the last poll. As with Newspoll, Essential’s second poll of the Morrison era includes its first approval ratings for the two leaders: Morrison debuts on 37% approval and 31% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 35% approval, up one on a month ago, and 43% disapproval, down one.

UPDATE: On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 36%, Labor is down two to 37% – solidly lower than Newspoll – the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is up one to 8% (their second increase in a row, the opposite of what Newspoll has shown). The full report is here.

The poll finds 47% disapproving of the leadership change compared with 35% in support, widening a gap that was recorded at 40% to 35% in the last poll (the narrowness of which I found hard to credit). Presented with a series of propositions on the leadership change, 63% agreed with the proposition that they had lost trust in the government and wanted a new one; 60% that Morrison “was not elected by the people and has no legitimacy” and “needs to go to an election as soon as possible“; and 67% that they were “sick of the major parties changing their leaders” and “consider voting for a third party to send a message to them both”. Also included are a finding that 69% think a policy to reduce carbon emissions important, versus 23% for unimportant; and leadership attribute ratings which I may or may not take a closer look at when the full report comes out later today.

Also today, The Australian has some results from a poll of 1000 respondents in Wentworth. The poll was conducted for Andrew Bragg, the early Liberal preselection frontrunner who is now set for a seat in the Senate, who seems to be publicising it to back his decision to vacate the field in Wentworth for a woman. A straight voting intention question recorded the Liberal primary vote at just 39%, compared with Malcolm Turnbull’s 62.3% in 2016, with Labor’s Tim Murray on 25% and Kerryn Phelps, who is expected to announce shortly she will run as an independent, on 20%. However, a secondary voting intention specifying a female Liberal candidate found the party’s vote increasing to 43%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,254 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Simon Banks
    @SimonBanksHB
    ·
    28m
    “The Victorian government has snared a massive 928 megawatts in new wind and solar projects, at what are said to be very low prices, in the first tender of a state renewable energy target scheme.”

  2. I still don’t know what was supposed to be either racist or sexist in William’s treatment.

    1. Coaching during a game is illegal.
    2. Williams was given a caution about illegal coaching.
    3. The coach (later) admits that he was coaching. It is clear from the vid footage that he WAS coaching Williams illegally.
    4. Williams starts shouting at the umpire that she is not a cheat, etc.
    5. She smashes her racket.
    6. Gets docked a point for racket violation.
    7. Calls the referee a thief and a cheat.
    8. Gets docked a game.

    My reading is that Williams bastardized the referee, Osaka, and the game. There is nothing sexist in the referee’s decisions which were straight down the line as both rules, procedure and the facts.

    As for the cartoons, illustrating Williams as a brat throwing a tantrum is entirely justified, IMO. If the cartoon is based around the fact that Williams is big and black then that is, IMO, entirely within a cartoonist’s remit. Every single cartoon in the world is based on the actual appearance of the subject.

    I have been the subject of just one political cartoon in my life and I had to laugh when I saw it. There I was, drawn to look like a bearded, long haired, stoned, white hippy lying under a bush doing nothing. The hair and the beard made me look vaguely like Rip Van Winkle. Was it a caricature? Of course. Was it me? Of course it was.

    Using the term ‘playing the sexism card’ is, IMO, entirely justified. There is zero evidence of sexism in the referee’s behaviour. Williams is using the pretext of sexism to try to explain away her appalling behaviour. Her other justifications, the ‘I Work Hard Card’ and the ‘I Am A Mother Card’ simply don’t help either. She worked hard. They all do. She is a mother. Lots of us are.

  3. https://theconversation.com/reforming-our-political-system-is-not-a-quick-fix-heres-a-step-by-step-guide-to-how-to-do-it-102415

    With public trust in government already in serious decline over the last ten years, the downfall of yet another prime minister between elections underlines both the importance and urgency of making serious changes to our political system.
    ::::
    We first need to recognise that two distinct crises are contributing to declining public trust in government.

    The first is a “crisis of representation”. This results from a fragmented, highly diverse electorate that increasingly fails to connect with major parties. The major parties are left with shrinking, less diverse memberships.

    The second is a “crisis of functionality”. Our democratic system is increasingly unable to deliver good public policy in a consistent or coherent way, and to convince the public to support it.

  4. @BW

    How can Williams claim it was sexist anyway?

    Osaka is a women too. Williams is more racist than anything in my view. And her fan club are as well for Booing.

  5. The problem with this is , that once they are in the door there is no going back. And as we have seen with the mining, pharmaceutical & and banking & finance industries they never give up on weakening down over time any initial protections & regulations.

    With Howard & Abbott on the Ramsay board I would not trust them one iota.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-university-s-conditions-for-ramsay-centre-deal-revealed-20180910-p502ww.html

  6. Stephanie Peatling‏ @srpeatling

    PM being interviewed by Alan Jones who is unhappy about Julia Banks’ resignation or comments abt bullying. Jones demands to know why Banks didn’t bother to show up for Parliament on Monday. The PM has to tell him – twice – that Banks was there, but sitting in a different seat.

  7. BW:

    I think the criticism of the Mark Knight cartoon isn’t about whether the referee’s call was justified or whether Williams was in the right or wrong, but the fact that Williams is drawn like a Jim Crow era racist caricature.

    From the little I know about the incident (and it’s not something I’ve bothered looking into, since I prefer to follow actual news), Williams clearly was in the wrong, and is acting like a spoiled child. But that Knight caricature is still very unfortunate. He could have easily made the same point without the minstrel look.

    But, as with all sports-related “controversies”, I can only think the same thing I always do whenever these things make the news: who gives a shit?

  8. I’m a little surprised to learn that Boerwar is apparently enough of a public figure to warrant a political cartoon being drawn about him.

  9. lizzie @ #57 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 5:58 am

    Stephanie Peatling‏ @srpeatling

    PM being interviewed by Alan Jones who is unhappy about Julia Banks’ resignation or comments abt bullying. Jones demands to know why Banks didn’t bother to show up for Parliament on Monday. The PM has to tell him – twice – that Banks was there, but sitting in a different seat.

    That really does sum up Jones well!

    He forms an opinion and then refuses to listen to anyone else. 🙂

  10. ‘Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 8:52 am

    BW

    What were you doing stoned, under a bush and doing nothing?

    I have never inhaled… apart from that…

    I was working at Uluru National Park for the Feds shortly after Handback. The context was yet another racist campaign by the CLP. I was a cast as a useless, lazy, Down South bludger do gooder come up to try and stop real honest hard-working Territorians from doing what they wanted.
    At that time what ‘real’ Territorians apparently wanted to do was to stop the Blacks from getting anything at all, including zero Land Rights.

  11. The first is a “crisis of representation”. This results from a fragmented, highly diverse electorate that increasingly fails to connect with major parties. The major parties are left with shrinking, less diverse memberships.

    This is bollocks. The diversity of the electorate does not inhibit representation or inclusion. The electorate has always been diverse though it’s true the nature of this diversity is changing.

    It is also absolutely false to claim that Labor has a “shrinking, less diverse membership”. Labor’s ranks are highly diverse and are increasing.

    If the MSM want to understand why the system is held in low esteem, they could begin by looking at their own role in the reporting of current affairs and politics. They might desist from their utterly facile same/same jeering and sledging.

  12. Asha Leu @ #58 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 5:59 am

    BW:

    I think the criticism of the Mark Knight cartoon isn’t about whether the referee’s call was justified or whether Williams was in the right or wrong, but the fact that Williams is drawn like a Jim Crow era racist caricature.

    I don’t know if that was deliberate or not, but it was a pretty good likeness.

  13. ‘sha Leu says:
    Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 8:59 am

    BW:

    I think the criticism of the Mark Knight cartoon isn’t about whether the referee’s call was justified or whether Williams was in the right or wrong, but the fact that Williams is drawn like a Jim Crow era racist caricature.’

    I am open to this discussion, having been at times being threatened with being bashed because I was a ‘N*gger l*ver’. The question I have is this: how do you draw a legitimate non-racist cartoon of Williams?

  14. ‘Zoidlord says:
    Tuesday, September 11, 2018 at 8:54 am

    @BW

    How can Williams claim it was sexist anyway?

    Osaka is a women too. Williams is more racist than anything in my view. And her fan club are as well for Booing.’

    Had the referee used sexist language, perhaps. For example, had he urged her to stop being ‘hysterical’. He might have, but there is no evidence that he did, IMO.

  15. Boerwar @ #52 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 8:48 am

    8. Gets docked a game.

    You’re correct that this isn’t racist or sexist but it is way over-the-top.

    Had Williams hurled her racket at or directed her verbal abuse towards her opponent, then fair enough, dock her a game. But for getting into an argument with a ref after receiving some penalties? Yeah, nah. Players do that all the time and almost never lose an entire game for it.

    As for the cartoons, illustrating Williams as a brat throwing a tantrum is entirely justified, IMO. If the cartoon is based around the fact that Williams is big and black then that is, IMO, entirely within a cartoonist’s remit. Every single cartoon in the world is based on the actual appearance of the subject.

    The one that has Williams jumping on her racket is pretty fucking racist. The person who drew it deliberately chose to use well-known racist tropes when embellishing Williams’s character. Basically, what Asha said.

  16. It is such an obvious mistake for any politician to be part of “a conga line of suckholes” fronting 2GB.

    Jones, and particularly Hadley, will only be your mate until it suits them otherwise.

  17. http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-09-11/fake-news-online-five-ways-youre-being-fooled/10126574

    Sign into any social media platform and you’re immediately bombarded by endless feeds full of links to news stories, often accompanied by breathless comments or rants, each jostling for a precious sliver of your attention.

    Throw in the fact that fake news spreads faster online than the truth and it can be hard to quickly and accurately discern what’s real from the hoaxes.

    So don’t believe everything you read — or see or hear. Here are a few common ways you’re getting conned while scrolling through your social media feed.

  18. Barney in Go Dau @ #40 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 8:21 am

    Hard to see what the US wants to achieve out of this, but it certainly isn’t diplomacy!

    Classic bully tactics and a complete refusal to accept that there are boundaries in how Nations should behave.

    But then again it is the US.

    When I moved to the US to work I was surprised at the attitude I encountered among the locals towards the rest of the world. It was explained to me as “The problem is that US only cares about its own backyard, but the good thing is that it considers the world as its backyard.” If it looks like Empire….

    When privilege is threatened the privileged lash out. When a bully is threatened the weaker are targeted. Nasty combination.

    In part you are right, it is the US. In part too it is the bully in chief and those around him leveraging that.

  19. In AFL or NRL, if a player argues with the umpire, let alone abuses or threatens them, that player is sent off. Tennis needs a rule like that.

  20. Catprog @ #65 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 6:04 am

    With regards to the tennis argument. https://sports.good.is/articles/serena-williams-umpire-speaking-out?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TDG?utm_source=thedailygood&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailygood seems to be arguing males have done worse and not been punished.

    Yes she was in the wrong though.

    So the problem here is that the umpire did his job properly and she was hard done by as other umpires sometimes don’t!

    So, it’s the umpires fault.

    Nuremberg comes to the fore again! 🙂

  21. BW:

    The question I have is this: how do you draw a legitimate non-racist cartoon of Williams?

    Good question. I’m not sure what the right answer here is, but I think Knight had the wrong answer. I thought the Zanetti cartoon, by contrast, was pretty reasonable in its depiction. (EDIT: As is the one Confessions just posted)

    It’s the imagery of the big, hulking ape, with enormous, minstrel lips that I found most troubling. I admit I’m not particular familiar with Serena Williams, but from what I’ve seen of her, she’s certainly tall and muscular, but she’s also pretty slim, and her facial features don’t really strike me as being especially stereotypically “black”, for want of a better word.

  22. You gotta laugh

    Translate Trump
    Translate Trump
    @TranslateRealDT
    ·
    6h
    In the past 48 hours, the President of the United States tweeted the following:

    – 7 Inflated Stats on the Economy
    – 6 Right-Wing Memes
    – 5 Insults of Woodward
    – 4 Attacks on U.S. Companies
    – 3 Smears of Democrats
    – 2 Shout-outs to a Dictator

    …And a partridge in a pear tree

  23. a r @ #68 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 6:06 am

    Boerwar @ #52 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 8:48 am

    8. Gets docked a game.

    You’re correct that this isn’t racist or sexist but it is way over-the-top.

    Had Williams hurled her racket at or directed her verbal abuse towards her opponent, then fair enough, dock her a game. But for getting into an argument with a ref after receiving some penalties? Yeah, nah. Players do that all the time and almost never lose an entire game for it.

    She didn’t lose a game for abusing the umpire, she lost a game because that abuse was her 3rd code violation.

    1st violation – warning
    2nd violation – point penalty
    3rd violation – game penalty
    and I think
    4th violation – forfeit match

  24. Quiet morning. Do Labor have a caucus meeting this morning – can we hear a song happening?

    “We are, you are, we are the ALP”

    Across the hall, is Gonzo dancing on the desk while the rest of the Muppets argue with themselves?

  25. @Barney

    I think what the article is saying is this particular case is correct. But when this particular umpire has umpired male games the players have done worse and not been punished.

  26. Williams has form. When Stosur beat her in the US Open final some years ago, she was also docked a game. She threatened to kill a lines-person another time.

    Now, despite all this, I am willing to give a new mother some leniency. I hope those close to her are monitoring her mental health closely.

  27. It’s ‘racquet’, not ‘racket’ in this country, for crying out loud.

    Williams made a racket yelling at the umpire before smashing her racquet.

  28. ‘The first is a “crisis of representation”. This results from a fragmented, highly diverse electorate that increasingly fails to connect with major parties. The major parties are left with shrinking, less diverse memberships.’

    As I’ve noted before, the media is scarcely in a place to cast slurs along these lines.

    “The first is a ‘crisis of representation”. This results from a fragmented, highly diverse readership that increasingly fails to connect with the mainstream media. Mainstream media are left with shrinking, less diverse readerships.”

    If you don’t understand why your own industry is floundering, I doubt you have anything meaningful to say about other floundering industries….

  29. “Across the hall, is Gonzo dancing on the desk while the rest of the Muppets argue with themselves?”

    And will any Labor MP’s walk past whistling the theme from the Muppet Show?

    And, my only comment of the Williams Tennis thing. Much more significant stuff happening in the world and i really dont care if a sportsperson chucks a wobbly. Disappointed for the Japanese lady though who had something she should have been able to celebrate spoiled..

  30. Catprog @ #84 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 6:21 am

    @Barney

    I think what the article is saying is this particular case is correct. But when this particular umpire has umpired male games the players have done worse and not been punished.

    Each game is a separate event.

    Also it implies that Williams’ actions were deliberate as she thought she could get away with it.

    I’m all for more consistency in the application of the rules, but to complain when they are applied properly is pathetic. 🙂

  31. imacca:

    And, my only comment of the Williams Tennis thing. Much more significant stuff happening in the world and i really dont care if a sportsperson chucks a wobbly.

    Agreed. The amount of news coverage that is regularly dedicated to what is ultimately just inconsequential televised entertainment just baffles me.

    After that whole ball tampering thing, you’d think a nuke had just been dropped on Canberra from the way the media was carrying on about it. Some players cheated. Kick them off the team, and move on. Who gives a shit?

  32. Ramos is an umpire.

    He penalised Williams in accordance with the rules.

    I think it is a great pity that more umpires in more sports don’t do the same.

  33. a r @ #88 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 6:26 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #82 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 9:16 am

    a r @ #68 Tuesday, September 11th, 2018 – 6:06 am

    She didn’t lose a game for abusing the umpire, she lost a game because that abuse was her 3rd code violation.

    Pedantic technicality. 🙂

    Not really.

    She would have received a game penalty if she had smashed her racquet again or committed any other violation.

    The actual violation was immaterial, the penalty was solely due to the fact it was her 3rd violation. 🙂

  34. I see the HUN cartoonist, Knight, has been condemned internationally for his racist cartoon about Serena Williams. My guess is that Rupert will give him a pay rise and Scummo will laud him in parliament.

  35. Perhaps Ramos felt having his call labelled “fucking ridiculous” by Kyrios was not as bad as being called a liar and a thief and demanding a the point be reinstated by the highest profile women’s tennis player in the world, possibly ever. Just sayin’.

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