Wagga Wagga by-election live

Live coverage of the count for the Wagga Wagga state by-election in New South Wales.

Sunday night. Antony Green is now leaving only the faintest hint of wriggle room, in saying “scrutineer figures suggest McGirr is now certain to win”. Today we have had 1099 postal votes, 441 “enrolment” votes (which I take to be those who availed themselves of enrolment on election day, as is allowed in New South Wales) and 10 absent votes (which I don’t understand). The top three candidates are fairly evenly placed on primary votes, so preferences from the other will determine which of the three is excluded. Clearly those scrutineers reports suggest it won’t be Joe McGirr, confirming the irrelevance of the Liberal-versus-Labor preference count that the NSWEC pulled last night, which showed Labor would have narrowly won. It’s also clear that McGirr stands to receive non-trivial amounts of preferences from either Labor or Liberal, whichever one it is that drops out.

10.51pm. That long awaited Wagga Wagga town pre-poll booth decides it for McGirr, who outpolled both major parties there with 3202 (26.9%) to the Liberals’ 3029 (26.0%) and Labor’s 2737 (23.0%). This means the notional two-party count is surely now irrelevant, but for what it’s worth, the iVotes cut the Labor lead from 2.3% to 1.3%.

10.33pm. Twelve thousand pre-polls take a while to count it seems. My best estimate is that they will push Labor into the lead on the primary vote, at around 25.5%, with McGirr on 24.7% and the Liberals on 23.8%. After that there won’t be much left: at most 1500 postals and 500 bits and pieces. So any turn-up in late counting can only come from the enormous hit of Wagga Wagga town pre-polls that I presume will be through this evening.

9.42pm. Now we have 2666 iVotes, of which McGirr has 23.5%, which he can live with. The Liberals did relatively well, getting 30%, while Labor only got 17.7%. So they’re now back ahead of Labor on the primary vote, though not two-party.

9.33pm. Antony Green says there will be fully 12,000 votes to come in later tonight from the Wagga Wagga town pre-poll. That’s enough to turn up a significant surprise, in whichever direction.

9.32pm. On the two-party count, the swing to Labor in the Tumut pre-poll was 11.7%, which is lower than their 15.0% on the polling booth votes. The Liberal margin is 12.9%, so they would need to do better than that on the remainder of late counting, if indeed it did come down to Labor versus Liberal.

9.20pm. McGirr got 16.7% of the polling booth vote in Tumut, and now 13.6% on pre-poll. He would need to do more than 3% worse on late counting compared with ordinary votes to lose.

9.18pm. However, Antony notes these votes were from Tumut, and McGirr is stronger in Wagga Wagga, which should come through with over 8000 pre-polls votes later this evening.

9.12pm. Now we have 2748 pre-polls counted, and they have gone remarkably badly for Joe McGirr, who only got 13.6% of them.

9.06pm. All booths now in on the primary vote.

8.52pm. Labor now well ahead on two-party, by a little over 52-48. So if there’s any hypothetical threat to McGirr, and it’s a big if, it’s increasingly looking like it will be from Labor.

8.36pm. So here’s the situation. If Joe McGirr makes the final count, he will win easily. If he doesn’t though, it will be lineball between Liberal and Labor. McGirr will presumably manage, but we should have a huge amount of pre-polls come in later this evening, with postals to come through over the coming week. If these come in below 20% for him, it could yet get interesting.

8.34pm. Now Labor are ahead on two-party preferred. Ironically, the extent of the Liberal collapse may end up costing Labor the seat.

8.29pm. Nothing in it on the notional two-party Liberal-versus-Liberal count, with seven booths left to report.

8.24pm. Only one booth left to report.

8.20pm. This was over half an hour ago now, but Antony Green was being cautious in his assessment due to the outside possibility that Joe McGirr will tank on postals and pre-polls, in which case the notional two-party count would no longer be theoretical. The Liberals currently hold a 51-49 lead over Labor here on the raw vote, and my projection has it lineball.

8.04pm. Three booths still to come now. For what little it’s worth, the Liberals have edged to a 52-48 lead on the two-party count.

7.59pm. Only four booths left to go on the primary vote, and it’s increasingly looking like the Liberals will finish third.

7.51pm. Now up to 23 booths out of 29 and the Liberals have definitively fallen behind Labor. The notional Liberal-versus-Labor two-party shows a 13% swing against the Liberals, suggesting this would come right down to the wire if it ended up being a Liberal-versus-Labor contest.

7.41pm. There’s very little in it between Liberal, Labor and McGirr on the primary vote, but presumably McGirr will get a strong flow of minor party and independent preferences.

7.37pm. Now up to 21 booths out of 29 and it’s no longer clear the Liberals will even finish second. Labor is still down on the primary vote, but not by as much as earlier in the count.

7.32pm. McGirr back in front on the primary vote; I’m projecting a tie.

7.30pm. Eighteen booths out of 29 have now reported, and the Liberals are back in front on the primary vote, not that that will save them.

7.27pm. Two more booths in and the situation keeps getting worse for the Liberals. McGirr now leads on both the raw and projected primary vote.

7.21pm. Big surge to Joe McGirr from the last four booths. His primary vote is now only a fraction below the Liberals, both on raw and projected terms, in which case game over. Not much chance of Labor finishing second by the looks.

7.13pm. A tenth booth now, not sure from where, but it has weakened the Liberals and strengthened McGirr. Projected Liberal primary vote back below 30%.

7.10pm. Nine booths in now out of 29, and the Liberals continue to strengthen. Joe McGirr remains in the low twenties and Labor in the high teens. A notional Liberal-versus-Labor count is being conducted, but it probably won’t be much use, as the question seems to be whether McGirr will get enough preferences to overhaul the Liberals.

7.03pm. Seven booths in now, and the results are looking a bit better for the Liberals. I now have their vote down 22.0%, where before it was more like 30%. This means I’m projecting them to finish north of 30% on the primary vote. Joe McGirr is on 24.0% though, and I presume he would get enough preferences if that was how it panned out.

6.49pm. Uranquinty Public booth maintains the earlier trend.

6.47pm. So far Labor are down on the primary vote, so early as the indications are, they are good for Joe McGirr.

6.45pm. Yerong Creek booth now in as well, and it looks much like the first. The raw Liberal primary vote is about 33%, but these booths were about 10% above the Liberal norm in 2015.

6.38pm. One small booth in — Talbingo Public — has, by my reckoning, the Liberal vote dropping by other half. A tiny number of votes of course, but the results look rather a lot like what the polls were showing. Over the fold you will find a primary votes table with booth-matched swings and projections. I hope against hope it doesn’t have too many bugs.

6pm. Polling has closed for the Wagga Wagga by-election. Live commentary to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

353 comments on “Wagga Wagga by-election live”

Comments Page 5 of 8
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  2. I will give Foley credit for some things. He has been making NSW Labor try a lot harder west of the Dividing Ranges.

  3. Gutless Gladys!

    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian is expected to lay the blame upon the federal leadership coup, which claimed Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership during the byelection campaign, in a bid to ward of interpretations of the rout as a reflection of her political judgment.

    As Ms Berejiklian toured polling booths around Wagga on Saturday morning, she continued her strategy of managing expectations, saying a Liberal victory would be “a struggle”, and she left the electorate before the count got under way.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/independent-joe-mcgirr-on-track-for-historic-wagga-win-20180908-p502kz.html

  7. Jimmy

    Knowing what I know I seriously doubt it. Jodi is useless and they are being “advised” by a bunch of miserable old hacks from the CityRail era.

  8. Cud Chewer,
    I gather you don’t use public transport.
    Spending billions of dollars replacing high capacity trains with low capacity metros is bad transport policy for everyone except Transurban.

    Gladys is spending $12 billion to reduce the capacity of Bankstown Railway line by 33%.

    Anyone who can stop Gladys’s metro madness will get my vote!

  9. Cud Chewer @ #195 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 9:17 pm

    Jimmy

    It would utterly piss me off if Foley were to fight the next election over transport given state Labor have essentially no transport policy and have attacked good transport policy (metros) and have generally relied on beat ups, misinformation and interlectual dishonesty.

    Not true. As you would know. Labor argued vociferously for the Hawkesbury River Bridge and associated train line to be upgraded for safety of train travel. We campaigned against the stupid interchange at Kangy Angy. I’m sure we also support the High Speed Rail proposal.

  11. Ides of March@9:20 pm
    Nobody is saying that. But this result will send shivers down the LNP spine and cold sweat on a cold night for Gladys and Morrison
    This could have leadership implications for Gladys like Orange by-election had for Mike Baird and NSW Nationals party leader at that time

  12. Ides of March. not logged in says:
    Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 9:20 pm
    JimmyD

    But the swing in Wagga wont be replicated at the general in March. Much closer to 5% or less.

    The determining feature of this election is the collapse in the Liberal PV, reflecting the near-complete dysfunction within that party. It’s certainly far too early to call a bottom to either the decay in the organisational and political constituents of the Liberals or to the descent in Liberal-voting support.

    This is the consequence of years of white anting in Tory politics, and, in particular, the pressure applied to the Liberals by Tony Abbott and his supporters.

    This upheaval on the Right can run a very long way yet.

  14. Watson.

    On the contrary I have been vision impaired my entire life and have never bern able to drive so public transport is not only mandatory for me but its also my field of expertise.

  15. Ides
    But the swing in Wagga wont be replicated at the general in March. Much closer to 5% or less.

    That wasn’t my point. Whether or not Labor does well in Wagga at the next election is irrelevant. What matters are those seats that naturally lean towards Labor but which are still held by the Liberals – by my count there are 9, all with margins smaller than Wagga. I think the swing at the next election will be quite substantial.

    That’s not even mentioning the traditional swing seats that are currently held with huge margins by the Liberals.

  16. Watson the numbers you are using are an example of the intellectual dishonesty I’m referring to. I’d like to see Labor win with major new infrastructure not confected outrage driven by a clique of old timers.

  19. Ven

    I dont think it will result in a leadership spill for the state Libs. They dont want to add more barnacles than the federal spill already has. Wagga is far from Sydney and the coast where the marginals are. Local factors in Wagga have massively inflated the swing.

  20. C@t

    That’s because I spend my life working with transport experts. As much as I hate tories the simple fact is state Labor has a long way to go on this issue.

  22. Evan – in the lead up to the 2015 NSW election I spent some time in the mid-north coast and I remember feeling huge upsets were in the offing. If I remember right the Coalition lost one north coast seat to the Greens and nearly lost the next few further down with massive swings. I think you are right – with only 52/93 seats (51 if they lose Wagga Wagga) it seems unlikely they will keep a majority. If the Federal election is in May that will help Labor’s cause, but after winning 14 or so seats last time it’s harder to get the next 13.

  25. JimmyD @ #220 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 9:40 pm

    C@T
    wrt their transport policy

    What transport policy?

    On their own policy page, NSW Labor currently have no policies for transport construction announced.

    https://www.nswlabor.org.au/positive_policies

    I have spoken to Jody Mackay and I believe the thinking is to not announce it yet. Although, I do remember that NSW Labor have announced that they will not go ahead with the North Shore tunnel under the harbour. That frees up money for?…

  30. Jimmy D

    There is 6 Coalition seats up to margins of 3.2% but then it jumps to Penrith on 6.2%. I wager Labor will win 5 of those and Greens will win in Lismore. However Penrith and beyond is tough. Penrith could be a win for Labor.

  33. Cud Chewer,
    If Public Transport is your field of expertise, you would be well aware that converting Sydney’s suburban railways to only allow use by low capacity metro rolling stock is bad public transport policy.

    A proper metro would work well in the inner suburbs of Sydney (8km radius of the CBD). The current government has not included such a metro in their transport plans for the next 20 years.

  34. C@T – I have a lot of time for McKay, and would like her to challenge for the leadership.

    The sooner Kaila et al work out that Foley is a drag on the party and get rid of him, the better.

  37. ”
    Ides of March. not logged in says:
    Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 9:38 pm
    Ven

    I dont think it will result in a leadership spill for the state Libs. They dont want to add more barnacles than the federal spill already has. Wagga is far from Sydney and the coast where the marginals are. Local factors in Wagga have massively inflated the swing.
    ”
    Ides the reason I think it may have leadership implications is because Gladys has forcibly imposed Coalition agreement and prevented Nationals from contesting. Nationals will be absolutely pissed with this result. People like Alan Jones and Ray Hadley will go berserk.

  40. Shades of the Redcliffe and Stanford byelections in Queensland which signaled the final fate of the Newman Government. Whilst Labor won back seats it previously held, the swings against the LNP were savage. Abbott was on the nose in Canberra and Newman pissing a massive majority against the wall. Don’t despair my NSW brothers and sisters (and those who identify as neither) – salvation is at hand. Keep the faith and forge a Social Democratic Future as we in Queensland have since 1989 barring two one term two administrations.

  41. Ides – most of those margins are wildly inflated. Do you not recall the huge “swings” to Labor in seats like Campbelltown, Londonderry, and Granville, but which were in reality simply corrections.

    The next election will be round two of the same correction.

    The real question is whether the correction will extend to the traditionally marginal seats.

  43. Ven

    The Nationals cant determine who the Liberal leader is. The Liberals would know that if they turf Gladys they add to their problems received from the federal Lib spill. There is also not that many well known Libs that could take over. Jones and Hadley already hate Gladys and rave about her everyday. Hardly new.

  45. Watson its hard to argue with someone who starts ftom false factual premises.

    The metro train (8 car version) carries a notional 1500 people. 500 seated, 1000 standing. Versus a typical Waratah with a reliable capacity of 1200. 800 seated 400 standing.

    The Epping Chatswoid line runs at present 4 trains per hour. The practical limit is about 6-8 given it is a branch and the multiple issues with the Northern line. As a metro it will run 15 trains with the capacity for 30.

    Vastly improved service on any count including seats

  46. I am with Cud Chewer on Transport policy. I travel public Transport everyday & it certainly can be improved a lot. I have seen how lowsy the transport system was under previous state ALP government.

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