Sunday night. Antony Green is now leaving only the faintest hint of wriggle room, in saying “scrutineer figures suggest McGirr is now certain to win”. Today we have had 1099 postal votes, 441 “enrolment” votes (which I take to be those who availed themselves of enrolment on election day, as is allowed in New South Wales) and 10 absent votes (which I don’t understand). The top three candidates are fairly evenly placed on primary votes, so preferences from the other will determine which of the three is excluded. Clearly those scrutineers reports suggest it won’t be Joe McGirr, confirming the irrelevance of the Liberal-versus-Labor preference count that the NSWEC pulled last night, which showed Labor would have narrowly won. It’s also clear that McGirr stands to receive non-trivial amounts of preferences from either Labor or Liberal, whichever one it is that drops out.
10.51pm. That long awaited Wagga Wagga town pre-poll booth decides it for McGirr, who outpolled both major parties there with 3202 (26.9%) to the Liberals’ 3029 (26.0%) and Labor’s 2737 (23.0%). This means the notional two-party count is surely now irrelevant, but for what it’s worth, the iVotes cut the Labor lead from 2.3% to 1.3%.
10.33pm. Twelve thousand pre-polls take a while to count it seems. My best estimate is that they will push Labor into the lead on the primary vote, at around 25.5%, with McGirr on 24.7% and the Liberals on 23.8%. After that there won’t be much left: at most 1500 postals and 500 bits and pieces. So any turn-up in late counting can only come from the enormous hit of Wagga Wagga town pre-polls that I presume will be through this evening.
9.42pm. Now we have 2666 iVotes, of which McGirr has 23.5%, which he can live with. The Liberals did relatively well, getting 30%, while Labor only got 17.7%. So they’re now back ahead of Labor on the primary vote, though not two-party.
9.33pm. Antony Green says there will be fully 12,000 votes to come in later tonight from the Wagga Wagga town pre-poll. That’s enough to turn up a significant surprise, in whichever direction.
9.32pm. On the two-party count, the swing to Labor in the Tumut pre-poll was 11.7%, which is lower than their 15.0% on the polling booth votes. The Liberal margin is 12.9%, so they would need to do better than that on the remainder of late counting, if indeed it did come down to Labor versus Liberal.
9.20pm. McGirr got 16.7% of the polling booth vote in Tumut, and now 13.6% on pre-poll. He would need to do more than 3% worse on late counting compared with ordinary votes to lose.
9.18pm. However, Antony notes these votes were from Tumut, and McGirr is stronger in Wagga Wagga, which should come through with over 8000 pre-polls votes later this evening.
9.12pm. Now we have 2748 pre-polls counted, and they have gone remarkably badly for Joe McGirr, who only got 13.6% of them.
9.06pm. All booths now in on the primary vote.
8.52pm. Labor now well ahead on two-party, by a little over 52-48. So if there’s any hypothetical threat to McGirr, and it’s a big if, it’s increasingly looking like it will be from Labor.
8.36pm. So here’s the situation. If Joe McGirr makes the final count, he will win easily. If he doesn’t though, it will be lineball between Liberal and Labor. McGirr will presumably manage, but we should have a huge amount of pre-polls come in later this evening, with postals to come through over the coming week. If these come in below 20% for him, it could yet get interesting.
8.34pm. Now Labor are ahead on two-party preferred. Ironically, the extent of the Liberal collapse may end up costing Labor the seat.
8.29pm. Nothing in it on the notional two-party Liberal-versus-Liberal count, with seven booths left to report.
8.24pm. Only one booth left to report.
8.20pm. This was over half an hour ago now, but Antony Green was being cautious in his assessment due to the outside possibility that Joe McGirr will tank on postals and pre-polls, in which case the notional two-party count would no longer be theoretical. The Liberals currently hold a 51-49 lead over Labor here on the raw vote, and my projection has it lineball.
8.04pm. Three booths still to come now. For what little it’s worth, the Liberals have edged to a 52-48 lead on the two-party count.
7.59pm. Only four booths left to go on the primary vote, and it’s increasingly looking like the Liberals will finish third.
7.51pm. Now up to 23 booths out of 29 and the Liberals have definitively fallen behind Labor. The notional Liberal-versus-Labor two-party shows a 13% swing against the Liberals, suggesting this would come right down to the wire if it ended up being a Liberal-versus-Labor contest.
7.41pm. There’s very little in it between Liberal, Labor and McGirr on the primary vote, but presumably McGirr will get a strong flow of minor party and independent preferences.
7.37pm. Now up to 21 booths out of 29 and it’s no longer clear the Liberals will even finish second. Labor is still down on the primary vote, but not by as much as earlier in the count.
7.32pm. McGirr back in front on the primary vote; I’m projecting a tie.
7.30pm. Eighteen booths out of 29 have now reported, and the Liberals are back in front on the primary vote, not that that will save them.
7.27pm. Two more booths in and the situation keeps getting worse for the Liberals. McGirr now leads on both the raw and projected primary vote.
7.21pm. Big surge to Joe McGirr from the last four booths. His primary vote is now only a fraction below the Liberals, both on raw and projected terms, in which case game over. Not much chance of Labor finishing second by the looks.
7.13pm. A tenth booth now, not sure from where, but it has weakened the Liberals and strengthened McGirr. Projected Liberal primary vote back below 30%.
7.10pm. Nine booths in now out of 29, and the Liberals continue to strengthen. Joe McGirr remains in the low twenties and Labor in the high teens. A notional Liberal-versus-Labor count is being conducted, but it probably won’t be much use, as the question seems to be whether McGirr will get enough preferences to overhaul the Liberals.
7.03pm. Seven booths in now, and the results are looking a bit better for the Liberals. I now have their vote down 22.0%, where before it was more like 30%. This means I’m projecting them to finish north of 30% on the primary vote. Joe McGirr is on 24.0% though, and I presume he would get enough preferences if that was how it panned out.
6.49pm. Uranquinty Public booth maintains the earlier trend.
6.47pm. So far Labor are down on the primary vote, so early as the indications are, they are good for Joe McGirr.
6.45pm. Yerong Creek booth now in as well, and it looks much like the first. The raw Liberal primary vote is about 33%, but these booths were about 10% above the Liberal norm in 2015.
6.38pm. One small booth in — Talbingo Public — has, by my reckoning, the Liberal vote dropping by other half. A tiny number of votes of course, but the results look rather a lot like what the polls were showing. Over the fold you will find a primary votes table with booth-matched swings and projections. I hope against hope it doesn’t have too many bugs.
6pm. Polling has closed for the Wagga Wagga by-election. Live commentary to follow.
Sorry if this has already been discussed but if the Liberals do finish third behind Labor, what’s the chance they leapfrog them into second on the preferences of the minor parties and other independents?
thx Dave for you guide to the Urban Wagga booths
calumniousfox @ #101 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 8:06 pm
The Shooters and Fishers are preferencing Labor.
either perrotet or constance is the obvious replacement. Either way, this is an indictment on gladys’ leadership as she paid at least 6 visits to wagga in the lead up to this by-election and promised the world to the locals, there is only so much impact that the federal leadership issue a few weeks ago had and she is foolish to blame anyone but herself in that regard. This was presidential in nature, and all media reports on the ground suggest as much.
Confessions @ #100 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 8:06 pm
Lots of Liberals in NSW would fancy themselves a chance, no doubt about it.
Funnell vote 1 only on HTVs. SFF has Labor ahead of Libs on HTVs. Funnell is old school DLP type.
Unitary State,
Rob Stokes is my choice for new Liberal leader.
Andrew Constance can’t even get the trains to run! Let alone on time! 😀
either way, they are toast with gladys at the helm. The results tonight speaks for itself.
William – your last post 52/48 to Libs sounds counter-intuitive compared to the rest of the posts.
As a redhead once said “plyze ixpline”
I predicted last week that a disastrous loss in this by-election would lead to Dutton being sacked tomorrow. Maybe it will take a bad Newspoll as well, but I think his days are numbered as Morrison wants to rid himself of “this troublesome pest”.
How the Abbott-Dutton forces will spin a Liberal loss in Wagga Wagga (other than the usual State-Federal platitudes) – “This is what happens when you go too far to the left – you lose the Base and lose safe seats that you have held for 50 years. We need to reclaim the Base from the right-wing fringe or we will be wiped out in Victoria, NSW and Federally” or words to that effect.
“a plunge in the primary vote for the liberal party from 54% to 23% is nothing other than catastrophic. ”
So can we expect commentary from the press about comparisons with the Longman by election. 🙂 Would think that the NSW Libs would be wanting to distract from any of their troubles by blaming federal issues for the swing??
@jenauthor
Most of the McGirr preferences go to libs but won’t matter in the end I think.
Andrew Constance would ensure a Labor win. Hes responsible for the absolute joke that Sydney trains have become.
“We need to reclaim the Base from the right-wing fringe or we will be wiped out in Victoria, NSW and Federally”
Nah…i reckon Morrison’s arse is owned by the rW-fringe and going that path re-ignites serious internal LNP probs.
Unitary State @ #108 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 8:12 pm
Gladys was okay as Treasurer…except for all the Privatisation…however, she is no political party leader. She has all the charisma of a cardboard box!
Thanks Catprog – so it ALP/Ind really … since Lib comes third – his prefs are distributed, not the other way around …?
Rocket Rocket:
I missed your post last week, but how is Dutton related to this by-election?
Funnel changed his mind late to preference Mcgirr
imacca @ #114 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 8:15 pm
Nah. Scott Morrison IS of the Right Wing fringe as much as any of the other nutters.
@imacca
on balance, the result in longman is actually in line with the historical trend of federal by-elections.
But wagga is out of the ordinary – you know something isn’t right when you are finishing third in a heartland seat. Given that the liberal party tends to be pragmatic in that they are determined to win at all costs, one would think that gladys would be lucky to survive till the end of the month
Ides of March. not logged in @ #114 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 6:15 pm
I doubt that has any effect on the good burghers of Wagga.
I reckon it is a general ‘Lib party is poison’ meme acros the country at all levels right now.
Wentworth will be fun.
Dan
Does Shorten have questions to answer?
@Ides of March. not logged in
thats why i reckon perottet would resonate better with voters. He is youthful and also has a large family, meaning he can appeal to a wide demographic range.
@jenauthor
Yep.
They do two counts on the night. First preferences and Two party preferred. In this case they thought it would be ALP/LIB which is why we have that count.
I think a few Victorian Liberal MPs in the mid and outer Eastern suburbs of Melbourne will not sleep well tonight.
Are the last 3 booths coming by boat?
“one would think that gladys would be lucky to survive till the end of the month”
LoL! If there is talk of replacing her its going to channel right into problems for Morrison in terms of unity and stability….which he is going to have enough problems with this week anyway. 🙂
“LABOR supporters have been accused of dressing up like Independents in a bid to score preference votes from punters at the Wagga Wagga by-election.”
How does one dress up like an Independent?
Roger Miller @ #125 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 6:19 pm
Abbott, Dutton, Cormann and Morrison certainly do!!
@Confessions
in fairness, that bit shouldn’t be overstated. If there wasn’t dissatisfaction with Gladys as premier and the government that she leads, you wouldn’t suffer a fall of 31% in the primary vote would you know…
DG
I meant in the NSW state election in March. Wagga doesnt decide elections anyway at state (or Federal) levels.
Unitary
Dominic Perrotet is scary. Very very conservative Catholic (Opus Dei).
Fess – no matter what anyone says, state and federal “vibe” overlaps. Some electors have been found to be unaware which tier of government they are voting for. Tomorrow the federal Libs will be distancing themselves from this result about as hard as they would be claiming victory on “shared values” if the Liberal candidate got up.
It just continues the bad news for Liberals from the week of the coup – there is no let-up. All eyes will now turn to Wentworth, and Dutton is baggage which is weighing down the Liberals. If he stays, then next cab off the rank is Victoria, and his links with the likes of Sukkar are going to be a massive advantage to Labor, much more so if he is still a cabinet Minister.
It is the gift that keeps on giving.
Morrison may eventually realise this. Here’s hoping he doesn’t.
“Gecko says:
Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 8:21 pm
Are the last 3 booths coming by boat?”
Intercepted by Border Force and the ballot boxes have been transferred to Nauru.
Roger Miller @ #125 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 6:19 pm
Always.
Enjoying a cold schooner at the Farmers Home Hotel Wagga Wagga.
F#ck the Liberal Party.
Cheers comrades.
Ides of March. not logged in @ #135 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 6:24 pm
OK. That makes sense.
“How does one dress up like an Independent?”
No wedding ring
citizen 822pm
How does one dress up like an Independent?
Dave @ #139 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 8:28 pm
Have one for me! Go Country Labor!
Unitary:
I think it’s obvious the NSW govt is on the nose and that is largely to blame for the Wagga result.
But the knifing of Turnbull bookending a very woeful national govt would have to be a factor also. It’s been an issue here, evidenced by the local paper dedicating 2 front page reports bagging out our Lib MP for O’Connor over his role in the leadership change, and another where he featured on page 3 or 4 with a similar report. This is a very safe Liberal seat and voters are ropeable at the federal govt.
Therefore if the sentiment here is indicative of nation-wide feeling, it is not surprising to see voters get their first chance at voting post knifing of MT and this is the result.
Previewing tomorrows insiders: it’s been a good week for the coalition.
click on that
or the video – Sensible Party, Slightly Silly Party, Silly Party
(and check out the name of the Sensible Party Candidate!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4khxeru5hs
Yesterday was National Threatened Species Day.
Gladys has been added to the list!
Am in Wagga this weekend for family reasons, but one particular sign was prominent around some polling booths. Yellow background, big black writing, “Put the Liberals Last”. Small logo, shooter’s, fishers and farmer’s party.
Unitary State @ #126 Saturday, September 8th, 2018 – 8:20 pm
Nah. Lame gay churchy loser on steroids.
Rocket Rocket:
Yes I agree the shenanigans in Canberra influenced voters in the by-election without question. Sorry, when you said Dutton I was wondering what specifically about him personally or his ministerial directives.