We seem to be going into an ill-timed poll drought, so to keep things ticking over, here’s a post focusing on Senate preselection news. Please note there’s a post below this one on this Saturday’s Wagga Wagga by-election, which is developing into a fairly interesting contest.
• Queensland Labor’s state conference determined its Senate preselection on the weekend, having been hurried along by a national executive concerned the Liberal leadership crisis might bring on an early election. In doing so it bypassed a vote that was granted to the party membership under rule changes in 2013. The top position has gone to Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt and the favoured candidate of the CFMMEU and United Voice. The position is reserved to the Left, and is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore.
Green’s ascendancy has been contentious because party rules reserve the position for a regional representative and she lives in Brisbane, though she says she will move if elected. Supporters of rival Left candidate Tania Major, a Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate and protege of Cape York leader Noel Pearson, have further complained of being ambushed by a process for the factional ballot in which a three-day nominations period was followed immediately by the start of voting.
The second place on the ticket, which is reserved to the dominant Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right, has been retained by incumbent Chris Ketter. The cancellation of the party membership vote saw off any threat from rival nominee Pat O’Neill, former army major and candidate for Brisbane in 2016, although he was reportedly unlikely to win in any case. Number three goes to Frank Gilbert, a former Mackay councillor and candidate for Dawson in 2016, and a member of the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Tasmanian Labor’s union establishment has again lined up against Lisa Singh for Senate preselection, undeterred by the success of a below-the-line voting campaign in overturning her demotion at the 2016 election. Singh will presumably dominate the party member component of the vote, but is reportedly unlikely to do any better than the loseable third position. This is because the dominant Left wants places for an incumbent, Carol Brown, and John Short, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union official for whom Singh was relegated in 2016, while the Right is defending incumbent Catryna Bilyk.
• Tasmania’s Liberals are also conducting their Senate preselection vote on Saturday, and there are suggestions they too may repeat unhappy history from 2016. Richard Colbeck is again under pressure from conservative forces associated with Senator Eric Abetz, despite having almost matched Lisa Singh’s feat after being dumped to number five in 2016. He found his way back in the recount that followed Stephen Parry’s disqualification in November, and was promoted last week to the outer ministry, making him the only Tasmanian at that level of seniority. Brett Worthington at the ABC reports conservatives want the top position to go to Brett Whiteley, veteran of three winning and three losing campaigns at both federal and state level in Braddon, or alternatively to a woman. Further demotion beyond that would be particularly remarkable for Colbeck, as he is the only one of the four Tasmanian Liberal Senators facing re-election, the others having scored six-year terms. The other nominees for the preselection were detailed in an earlier instalment.
‘Late Riser says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 5:18 pm
Boerwar @ #3826 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:06 pm
Shelton is a christian leader. End of story.
The notion that bad people who are christians are not really christians is a fallacy.
Bottom line: there are good christians (IMO, the vast majority of them) and bad christians.
IMO faith (the personal kind) does not in itself make a person good or bad. But organised religion, like organised anything, provides leverage for its leaders and allows them to influence the behaviour of others towards their inner and personal desires. It is up to the group to promote what it desires and to rid itself of its undesirables. Inasmuch as it does or does not do this the group is responsible for its leaders.’
I understand what you are saying. I think.
My view is that Christians are justified in claiming good works by Christians as a mark of their Christian values. But they are not justified in defining out individual Christians who go pear-shaped and who claim to be Christians. Nor can they excommunicate individual Christians within the extremely broad church of Christianity as being not Christian.
I would be happy with some sort of usage as follows, “Shelton is not my kind of Christian.’
Or. ‘We are excommunicating from the Catholic Church, so- and so- for a dogged unwillingness to commit to the dogma of the One Holy Universal and Apostolic Church.’
citizen:
My questions about Frydenberg’s remarks about parliament failing on the issue of climate change: How many of Josh’s coalition colleagues voted to abolish a perfectly well-functioning and effective carbon pricing scheme? How many Labor and Greens MPs voted against abolishing carbon pricing?
The common denominator of parliamentary inaction on AGW is the coalition!
Late Riser
Would you kindly out me down for 55/45 to Labor if I am not in already?
C@t:
Actually, no, that was during one of my periodic absences from Poll Bludger. I wasn’t aware that your “managed” comment had anything to do with that.
That’s pretty low on his part, I must admit. But as Emma Husar does not, as far as I know, visit this blog, I don’t think that can be classed as him bullying people here, which was what the conversation was about. And I’m yet to see any evidence that he has done so. (And, to be frank, while I agree that Husar was a victim in this whole situation, I read much worse stuff written here about both conservative politicians and Rex here on a regular basis.)
Nonetheless, as I clearly misunderstood the context behind your own response to him, it was probably unfair of me to suggest you were bullying him. Apologies.
Posted without comment.
William Bowe @ #3849 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:23 pm
William
While I recognise that they are a real body etc, I think the more cynical amongst us may see that even those on the public payroll may beef up threats etc in order to get more funding etc and to be more relevant. Sometimes they stat to believe their own rhetoric. Best example is the Y2K hysteria.
Seriously the idea of mass hysteria/riots due to brexit is pretty bloody thick headed. If however the UK parliament passed a NO BREXIT deal then their MIGHT be trouble.
A few extra police near the Chunnel and at ports may be. Perhaps a presence along the inner border in Ireland, but the rest will be a giant ho hum.
Even Cassidy was somewhat incredulous when he asked him whether his party can feasibly go to an election with no policy on reducing GHGEs.
And on that, Frydenberg stated (I think) that per capita emissions are at their lowest level in decades(?), but I thought there have been reports come out showing a rise in emissions since the carbon price scheme was abolished?
No Asha, you had it right the first time. If my memory serves me correctly, Rex stated that she should be managed out as a regrettable but necessary response to the political realities of the situation. And even if he hadn’t, the view that a person in parliament shouldn’t be there is the bread and butter of normal political discussion.
I imagine there’d be many people in the Turnbull style mould who would appeal to Wentworthians mightily annoyed at how he was treated, and therefore not inclined to put their hand up for Liberal preselection.
That could well be, Confessions. There would be those, too, who understand today’s Liberal Party is a hollowed-out brand that has been reconstituted to comprise the extremist radical religious right and the extremist radical IPA right. What proportion of the general electorate recognises this, in Wentworth and elsewhere, remains to be seen.
Boerwar, perhaps you are further down the road than me on Christianity, but I think it’s the same journey. That is, what you say fits my point that you can’t ignore what your leaders say and do as leaders of your group. About the best you can say is that you’re working on getting rid of them and fixing their mess. (We have the same problem with our federal government.)
EDIT: than
Thinking further about the Wagga Wagga result last night, exact cause is hard to pin down (local, State or Federal factors) because there are so many reasons behind such a swing. But regardless of cause, it must have a destabilising effect on the Liberal party room.
If the Libs can loose Wagga Wagga, they can surely loose Wentworth in a short time. They can’t possibly put the bielection off to beyond Christmas. This means the impending risk of career end for many shifts that much closer. That is bound to start people in marginals looking around for post politics jobs. If tonight Newspoll confirms there really is no ScumMo poll bounce, they know they are gone. So how long before it gets ungovernable?
Socrates @ #3858 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:28 pm
Already there. 🙂
lizzie
I found that profoundly moving on a number of levels. It is so very human. I hope Hayden finds comfort and solace.
Eunoe
Wentworth is one of the most highly educated electorates in the state. I think they are well aware of the state of the Liberal party.
LR
I think we are in broad agreement.
William Bowe:
Oh.
No, that’s not so bad at all, then. I don’t really agree in this circumstance, but it’s a fair point to make – I was saying much the same stuff about Dastyari a while back.
I guess now I need to apologize to Rex.
Frydenberg’s claim about per capita emissions being at their lowest level in decades is almost certainly false. Even if energy emissions have peaked, transport and land clearing emissions have not.
Simon² Katich® says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 4:04 pm
How many conservative/right wing parties do we need in the parliament.There is virtually no difference between them.
Yep. They are all floating eggs.
________________
Thanks SK!
“Floating eggs” is a keeper, I shall pinch that and store it away for future use!
I would hazard a guess they need for the British Army to be used to assist the civil authorities is mostly for logistical reasons. There is not enough time left (6 months is all there is) to recruit and train additional staff to deal with the sudden backlog in Customs queues if there is a hard Brexit.
I think it will be a shame if all the hard work that has occurred over the past 20 years in Northern Ireland to end sectarianism breaks down because of a hard Irish border.
Thanks LR.
C
‘And on that, Frydenberg stated (I think) that per capita emissions are at their lowest level in decades(?), but I thought there have been reports come out showing a rise in emissions since the carbon price scheme was abolished?’
Our population has more than doubled in those 28 years. So our gross amount of emissions in some sectors have gone up. The IMF says that we are NOT going to reach our Paris Accord emissions targets. Morrison routinely says that we are going to do so. But he does not provide data.
Pink batts, improvements in home designs, more efficient cars, millions of pink batts and solar panels, dozens of large scale solar and wind plants ARE having an impact. So is closing down filthy coal-fired power stations.
That one liner by Frydenberg is uttered in order to deceive.
‘B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 5:38 pm
I would hazard a guess they need for the British Army to be used to assist the civil authorities is mostly for logistical reasons.’
I had not thought of that. So they form additional customs check points, for example?
Poroti
Have you heard of the Celtic Bridge propsal between Scotland and Ireland?
http://www.thenational.scot/news/16696833.a-celtic-bridge-project-could-keep-us-sane-as-the-chaos-of-brexit-unfolds/
Socrates
If the infantilising efforts of the Liberal Party through its MediaReach polling efforts in Wentworth are anything to go by, the Libs continue to place great stock in electorate ignorance. That said, self-delusion is as self-delusion does?
Another family murder in WA today.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-09/bedford-bodies-found-in-perth-home/10219442
Another tragedy. There seems to be a spate of these in Western Australia. I know times are tough there but is there something else going on over the Nullarbor.
Asha Leu @ #3324 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:37 pm
I appreciate the support.
Confessions @ #3857 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:32 pm
That’s the great thing about having ridiculously high migration levels. Per capita, emissions could easily be reducing, even though the reality is that our total emissions are rising.
Of course, the planet doesn’t give a flying f#ck about “per capita” emissions. It is only the total emissions that count.
My prediction is that if Phelps runs, and if the chips fall well for her in terms of ballot order and preference deals, then the Liberals will lose Wentworth while they are at it.
DTT:
When I was young getting a smallpox vaccination was a right of passage. Proved you has bee travelling overseas. Sort of a middle class one upmanship – we did not use clothes or cars – too hippy – but small pox vax was the show all.
___________________________
Total nonsense.
As usual.
Everybody at Mt Gravatt State Primary School (Brisbane) circa late 1940s early 1950s got a smallpox vaccination as a matter of course.
We hardly knew that an overseas existed. Tasmania and NZ maybe. Anything else was so far fetched as to be unbelievable.
Routine smallpox vaccination only ceased once it was eradicated.
“I don’t know anything about the NPCC – and I’m pretty sure you don’t either – but I would need it explained to my why they had a dog in the Brexit fight one way or the other.”
Hmmm…when people who it seems should know what they are talking about make that kind of speculation, knowing it will have a political significance its at the very least worth takingnote of and thinking about.
And i have seen enough written about Brexit to have decided its going to be a massive fwark up however it goes. Truly a massive act of political and economic self harm.
Eunoe:
My mother lives in Wentworth but is a Labor/Greens voter so wouldn’t be voting Liberal regardless of who their candidate is. She is campaigning for GetUp in Dickson next election having done the same in Tasmania in previous elections.
I hope there is a smorgasboard of independents in Wentworth. Without Turnbull’s name on the ballot paper and with the Liberals on the nose, an upset is on the cards with the right candidate.
Sorry, Mr Bowe, but I will have to respectfully disagree with your assessment of Rex Douglas’ contribution to the Emma Husar debate.
She was a woman MP who was being subjected to vile slut shaming by way of a tactic to dislodge her from her seat so a male could replace her, one Jeremy Anderson, who evidence suggests, was the instigator of the complaint and the urger of others to lodge complaints. Thus for Rex Douglas to repeatedly call for the woman’s dismissal, that she should be ‘managed out’, and not once to condemn the reprehensible behaviour of the male behind it, in fact, to aid and abet the male’s objective by devising his own form of words, that Emma Husar be ‘managed out’, not only debased her even further in a public forum by turning her into an object, a movable piece, but he also sought to condemn an innocent woman based upon the flimsy pretext that eventually false accusations about her made her a public embarrassment and that was cause enough for her to be ‘managed out’.
It was no mere debating point on the part of Rex Douglas. In my humble opinion it went much further than that. It went too far. And, unapologetic for it as he is, to this day, I condemn him for it utterly.
Introducing some of the project managers for the Celtic Bridge Project
https://www.pinterest.com.au/ethantolbert87/celtic-warriors-picts-britons-druids/
Climate change policy has been mostly a problem for the Coalition as a large chunk of it’s members denies the reality of it, or just doesn’t want to do anything about it.
Back when Tony Abbott was leader, he even knew they had to pretend that they were going to address Climate Change, which was “direct action”.
But if the Coalition is now at a point where they don’t even pretend to care to do anything about Climate Change, this gives Labor free reign to clobber the government over it, and no more fake “direct action” policies for the Coalition to full back on.
Boerwar – If the UK crashes to a hard Brexit, the customs regime for the goods entering the UK from the UK (and Vice versa) will need to be the same as goods entering from the rest of the world due to WTO rules. Some of what the report talks about is massive queues of lorries waiting to enter and exit the country as the inspections for Non-EU goods take a lot longer.
The military of the UK has some spare logistical capacity (for example in case a war broke out). You are more likely to see troops directing traffic etc.
There is some talk of riots too. But I suspect that is just if the lager carrying lorries are held up too long.
Meanwhile, on the world stage:
Trump’s latest decision, which is apparently to apply tariffs to ALL Chinese imports, is probably going to mean much, much more for Australians than Brexit.
Comrade Du’s behaviour on Nauru should put the wind up Australia.
It was rude, crude, crass and bullying stuff – a harbinger of what an untrammelled China would like in the future?
And Kyrgios seems to have morphed into a Williams.
Cassidy called him on it (of sorts), but I’m surprised there hasn’t been the usual flurry of twitter reaction to that claim as there was for other things he said. Frydenberg also repeated that the coalition will meet their Paris targets, despite having no actual mechanism for doing so.
Only Murphy at the end of the show took him to task for that. Why is it that these deliberate falsehoods and untruths aren’t challenged as a matter of course?
Sad to see Bill Hayden, one of our most prominent atheists, weaken to the fears and frailties of old age and make pascal’s wager.
What’s the motive to leak the NPCC documents ?
Nicko @ #3884 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:51 pm
Not really.
Turnbull has been turfed twice because he wanted to do something about Climate change. Most polls show an overwhelming desire for action on Climate Change. So, the only thing holding it up are the opinions of trogladytes in the liberal party and vested interests.
B.S.F.
Directing dozens of kilometers of parked lorries should be within the current capabilities of the Redcaps!
The Hard Brexiteers reckon that they can work under the umbrella of the WTO.
Across the Big Ditch, Trump appears to be set on dismantling the WTO.
I have no idea what Britain would do in the absence of the EU and in the absence of the WTO.
‘nath says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 5:54 pm
Sad to see Bill Hayden, one of our most prominent atheists, weaken to the fears and frailties of old age and make pascal’s wager.’
If it is a comforting way to meet death, why not?
Thinking further about the Wagga Wagga result last night, exact cause is hard to pin down (local, State or Federal factors) because there are so many reasons behind such a swing. But regardless of cause, it must have a destabilising effect on the Liberal party room.
Yes, I find it an insult to the electorate’s intelligence when politicians come out after an election result, usually a by-election, and ascribe the result to x or y, as if every voter went in there of one mind and that thought, which was at the forefront of their mind when they put pencil to paper, was the one that served the politician’s interests the best the next day.
Boerwar
It’s an interesting proposition. My sense is that Wentworth won’t go for an independent and will continue to be a Liberal seat. While well known, I don’t know that Dr Phelps is viewed as being a particularly effective advocate. I won’t mind being proved wrong on either score, should it eventuate.
Boerwar @ #3892 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:56 pm
That’s as may be but it’s an essentially gutless move at the end of the day.
Playing “devil’s advocate”, but why should an atheist not enjoy membership of a church? Has anyone asked him why he chose to be baptised?
C@tmomma @ #3893 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:57 pm
A 30% swing against usually says that you’ve done something to peeve the voters.
E
Mine is an early guess of heroic proportions.
But then who would have predicted either Longman or Wagga Wagga?
Rocket Rocket @ #11005 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 5:11 pm
Not quite. I’m a recovering Infectious Diseases physician, with some involvement in “counter biological weapons” (CBW), particularly since the preparation for the Sydney Olympics and the US anthrax release in 2001. CBW is the most vexed and misunderstood of disciplines (and I’m bored on a Sunday PM in Mt Isa).
Monkeypox is one of the orthopoxviridae, but a peculiarly non-virulant one both inside and outside old-world monkey species (orthopoxviridae are peculiarly species specific: there’s smallpox (human), cowpox, camelpox, avipox, swinepox, cervidpox, sealpox etc. etc.). Smallpox (variola) has been the only infectious disease to be eliminated (apart from the 2 (declared) stocks Atlanta (USA) and Novosibirsk (Russian Federation – which worries me after Novichok)). The last case of naturally occurring smallpox was in Somalia in 1976, but there were two accidental cases from an accidental exposure to unauthorised stock in Birmingham, UK in 1978. The Yanks were really scared that Hussein had weaponised smallpox (he didn’t – it was camelpox) which was the reason why the invasions of Iraq in 1990 and 2003 were delayed until the troops were vaccinated against smallpox as well as anthrax. The smallpox vaccine (vaccinia) is a live vaccine which is difficult to administer and can cause significant secondary disease in children and the immunosuppressed – so it’s not something to do on a whim, and can be done post-exposure. I was old enough to be primarily vaccinated as a child, so when the possibility of monkeypox was raised, I had a booster. There are now some antivirals with activity against orthopoxviridae, but they weren’t available in the 90’s, which is when the case turned up. Herpes B is a completely different type of virus, for which none of the currently available agents have much effect.
TL:DR: This is sorcerer’s apprentice stuff. Run away. Quickly.
A recent poll in northern Ireland had 52% saying they would vote for a re-united Ireland if brexit goes ahead.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/poll-northern-ireland-voters-will-back-united-ireland-after-brexit-37275256.html