Après le déluge

Situations vacant for aspiring Liberals, first in Wentworth, now in Chisholm, and perhaps soon in Curtin. Also: polls for the ACT Senate and next weekend’s New South Wales state by-election in Wagga Wagga, neither good for the Libs.

Post-leadership change turbulence costs the Liberals a sitting MP in a crucial marginal seat, as preselection hopefuls jockey for safe seat vacancies:

• Liberal MP Julia Banks yesterday announced she will not recontest her Melbourne seat of Chisholm, citing bullying she was subjected to ahead of last week’s leadership vote by the anti-Malcolm Turnbull camp. Banks won the seat on the retirement of Labor member Anna Burke in 2016, making her the only Coalition member to gain a seat from Labor at the election. Rob Harris of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals will choose their new candidate in a community preselection, which presumably entails an open primary style arrangement in which anyone on the electoral roll can participate. Labor has endorsed Jennifer Yang, former adviser to Bill Shorten and mayor of Manningham who ran second as a candidate in the Melbourne lord mayoral election in May, finishing 3.0% behind winning candidate Sally Capp after preferences. The party initially preselected the unsuccessful candidate from 2016, former Monash mayor Stefanie Perri, but she announced her withdrawal in May, saying she had been deterred by the expreience of Tim Hammond.

• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald cites “several senior Liberals” who say the “only real contenders” for the Wentworth preselection are Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel, and Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign. The report says Sharma has moderate factional support, including from powerbroker Michael Photios, while Bragg is supported in local branches. It also says it is no foregone conclusion that Labor will contest the seat, despite having an election candidate in place in Tim Murray, managing partner of investment research firm J Capital. An earlier report by Alexandra Smith suggested Christine Forster’s bid for Liberal preselection appeared doomed in part because, as an unidentified Liberal source put it: “She is an Abbott and how does that play in a Wentworth byelection? Not well I would suggest.”

• Primrose Riordan of The Australian identifies three potential candidates to succeed Julie Bishop in Curtin, assuming she retires. They are Emma Roberts, a BHP corporate lawyer who contested the preselection to succeed Colin Barnett in the state seat of Cottesloe, but was defeated by David Honey; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne; and Rick Newnham, chief econmist at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports a Greens-commissioned ReachTEL poll of the Canberra electorate suggests ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja’s role in Malcolm Turnbull’s demise may have put his seat in danger. Elections for the ACT’s two Senate seats have always resulted in one seat each for Labor, but the Liberal seat could potentially fall to the Greens if its vote fell significantly below one third. After allocating results of a forced response question for the initially undecided, the results are Labor 39.6%, the Greens 24.2%, Liberal 23.7% and One Nation 2.8%. Even accounting for the fact that the Canberra electorate is particularly strong for the Greens, these numbers suggest there would be a strong possibility of Greens candidate Penny Kyburz overhauling Seselja on preferences. The poll also finds 64.6% of voters saying Seselja’s role in Turnbull’s downfall made them less likely to vote for him, with only 13.0% saying it made them more likely to, and 22.4% saying it made no difference. Among Liberal voters, the respective figures were 38.7%, 29.6% and 31.7%.

In other news, the Liberals in New South Wales are managing expectations ahead of a feared defeat in Saturday week’s Wagga Wagga state by-election, most likely at the hands of independent Joe McGirr. Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports a ReachTEL poll commissioned by Shooters Fishers and Farmers has the Liberals on 30.2%, Labor on 23.8%, McGirr on 18.4% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 10.9%, after exclusion of the 7.4% undecided. However, McGirr faces a complication in Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ unusual decision to direct preferences to Labor, which could potentially prevent him from overtaking them to make the final count. According to Clennell’s report, “any government loss post-mortem would be expected to focus on why the Liberals did not let the Nationals run for the seat”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,383 comments on “Après le déluge”

Comments Page 25 of 28
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  1. sprocket_, someone should let slip a key Labor Party event on a Saturday…
    Well the federal conference is in December.
    Can they wait until then?
    It worked so well last time.

  4. A great summary:

    Sandi Logan‏
    @SandiHLogan

    THREAD. Snr public servant has observed that in all of this au pair business, no one is focusing on the main issue: the decisions insofar as the emails & relationships go present a clear conflict of interest situation that, were it a public servant would require disclosure. 1/3

    2/3 In addition to requiring disclosure, it would also require documentation and most probably disqualification from being the decision maker. (Quite often the assistant minister also has intervention powers & can be deputised in such a scenario).

    3/3 It’s good governance 101. That Dutton overruled his own officials in pursuit of these outcomes is an aggravating factor. You don’t have to be an expert in ethics & governance to see this, & when such an expert makes this observation, you know your suspicions are correct.

  5. Looks like ‘business’ is checking out the next government.

    Tete-a-tete with Team Shorten

    AUGUST 31, 2018
    Here’s a sign of the political times.

    This week — as our PM Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg were getting across their enormous new briefs — twenty of the nation’s most powerful business people discreetly gathered in a boardroom in Melbourne’s Tower of Power, 101 Collins Street, for an intimate chat with shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen and shadow Finance minister Jim Chalmers about life in Bill Shorten’s Australia.

    It was meant to be hush, hush.

    https://outline.com/YxUXBS

  8. Ven @ #1178 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    Sprocket@6:06pm
    English please. Not many here know French.

    I can do about two-thirds of it (tough I’m sure you’re better off with Google Translate):

    The Australian Minister of the Interior was on [la sellette] Thursday do to revelations from when he personally intervened to help young female French and Italian au pairs when their visas were about to be cancelled.

    Peter Dutton, main architect of an internal push by the conservative party [who wanted a reason, or something like that] ex-PM Malcolm Turnbull and [chantre] [something about draconian immigration policies put in place by Canberra, I think] [nie farouchement tout agissement répréhensible]. But he has not avoided scandal. A Senatorial commission will inquire about this business next week at the Opposition’s behest.

    French babysitted for a rich employer.

    In the first instance, Peter Dutton, who was then the Immigration Minister, used his discretionary powers in November 2015 to free a French person from detention and allow them to remain in Australia. According to documents obtained by the public ABC channel and other Australian media groups, the Minister responded to a request for intervention from the head of the Australian League of soccer (almost positive in French ‘football’ always means ‘soccer’?) Gillon McLachlan.

    The middle of the second paragraph is hard. 🙁

    Pretty sure being on la salette must mean some variant of “in trouble”.

  9. Rather than debating what the population policy is or could be, what about settling on the elements it should address? Elements might include environmental degradation, infrastructure, agriculture, security, humanitarian aid, global warming, and more.

    As I typed that it occurred that perhaps population policy is either a bedrock basic from which policies derive or a natural outcome of other policies, and not a policy in itself. ?? Hmm. Food for thought…

    What precedes policy?

  10. Ven says:
    Friday, August 31, 2018 at 6:15 pm
    Sprocket@6:06pm
    English please. Not many here know French.

    So use google translate. It’s not hard.

    You have a computer, learn how to use it.
    ___________

    The Australian Interior Minister was in the hot seat on Friday after revelations that he had personally intervened to help French and Italian au pairs whose tourist visas had been canceled.

    Peter Dutton, the main architect of a Conservative party internal coup that has just defeated former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and champion of Canberra’s draconian immigration policy, is fiercely denying any wrongdoing. But he did not succeed in appeasing the scandal. A Senate commission must investigate the case next week at the request of the opposition.

    French babysitter for a wealthy donor

    In the first case, Peter Dutton, who was then Minister of Immigration, used his discretionary powers in November 2015 to release a French woman in custody and allow her to stay in Australia. According to documents obtained by the public channel ABC and other Australian media, the minister responded to a request for intervention from the boss of the Australian Football League Gillon McLachlan.

    ______________________

  11. don – nice work with the webcam!

    Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) is a good solution for webcams that support it. You still need a power outlet at the other end of the cable for the PoE “injector” (single device), or PoE-enabled switch (multiple devices.)

  12. I was born in ’40’s – pursuant to which: could anyone tell me how I could obtain an avatar of my choosing?

  14. One would think that in normal circumstances the Liberals would rush to fill Wentworth at a by-election, as they would be one vote down. However, there is a reasonable chance that they will be two votes down if Labor (or similar) wins.

  15. Late Riser @ #1209 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:51 pm

    Rather than debating what the population policy is or could be, what about settling on the elements it should address? Elements might include environmental degradation, infrastructure, agriculture, security, humanitarian aid, global warming, and more.

    As I typed that it occurred that perhaps population policy is either a bedrock basic from which policies derive or a natural outcome of other policies, and not a policy in itself. ?? Hmm. Food for thought…

    What precedes policy?

    I agree, but a major issue is that it needs to be integrated and there are many State/Federal boundaries to be negotiated when formulating such a policy. 🙂

  23. Jaeger says:
    Friday, August 31, 2018 at 6:53 pm
    don – nice work with the webcam!

    Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) is a good solution for webcams that support it. You still need a power outlet at the other end of the cable for the PoE “injector” (single device), or PoE-enabled switch (multiple devices.)

    ________________

    Thanks Jaeger!

    But you go with what you have, and what works. I’d rather pay a little extra and have it working tout suite. Buggarising around with the router was not on my list of priorities.

    And it is great to be overseas (I just returned from nine weeks photographing in museums in Europe, June/July/early August, hot as hell in July) and check out what is happening (or not happening in terms of rainfall!) at your place.

  25. Barney, pretty much where I’ve landed too. You can’t do one in isolation. But your stated values underpin them or bind them.

  26. Aunt Mavis (formerly, Old Mavis) says:
    Friday, August 31, 2018 at 7:01 pm
    Dear don,

    I think I like you?

    _______________

    Well, that’s a change!

    It’s a deal, we cease hostilities for the moment. Best of frenemies.

  27. Murdoch had a story a few days ago that Turnbull is jetting off to New York where he owns an apartment.

    Which may well make him unavailable to give testimony to the GBRF Senate enquiry.

  33. And if we’re going non-English tonight, the German take on our politics, dated today, is:

    Die australische Politik folgt einer Empfehlung der Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO). Nach deren Einschätzung sind Tabaksteuern “mit Abstand der effektivste Weg, um Raucher zum Verzicht zu bewegen und Kinder davon abzuhalten, mit dem Rauchen anzufangen”.

    Für den Staat bedeuten höhere Steuern zudem mehr Geld: Vergangenes Jahr nahm Australiens Fiskus knapp 7,8 Milliarden Euro über Steuern für Tabakprodukte ein. 2020 sollen es 10,6 Milliarden sein.

    Als erstes Land der Welt hatte Australien 2012 für alle Zigarettenschachteln schlammgrüne Einheitspackungen eingeführt, auf denen der Markenname nur noch winzig ist, die Schreckensbilder dafür riesig. Im vergangenen Juni hatte die Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) erklärt, dass die Einheitsverpackungen nicht gegen internationale Handelsregeln verstoßen.

    Nothing on Turnbull, or Dutton, or Shorten…

  35. It seems to me that Dutton’s in a space that he can’t excetrate himself from.- time will tell.

  37. a r says:
    Friday, August 31, 2018 at 6:51 pm
    Ven @ #1178 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 6:15 pm

    _______________

    Bloody good work on the French translation, I could not do nearly as well. French is a bugger. I am very surprised indeed that google translate did what seems to be a flawless job on that particular bit of text.

    I spend a lot of most days translating French into English, (archaeology and France are synonymous, pretty much) using Google translate for the heavy lifting, and translating the Frenglish into recognisable English. I am glad I have high school French, it would be impossible without it to get a decent translation. The old masters (Peyrony and Breuil for instance) are easy, modern French archaeology papers are horrendous.

    Google translate does German extremely well. Often when I am on a German archaeology site, the automatic translation makes me think I am on an english site until a slightly awkward form of words appears.

    Google translate has improved a lot over the last few years.

  42. don – yes remarkably improved. German very good.

    Occasionally wanting to send something in a language I have little familiarity with I have done the “translate” back and forth for each paragraph, making slight alterations until they match going back into English. Possibly gets a stilted version in the other language but I am reassured if it translates back exactly into what I wrote.

    Plus de pluie?

  46. Late Riser:

    The Australian policy follows a recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO). According to them, tobacco taxes are “by far the most effective way to prevent smokers from giving up and keep children from starting to smoke”.

    Higher taxes also mean more money for the state. Last year, Australia’s treasury took just under € 7.8 billion in taxes on tobacco products. By 2020 it should be 10.6 billion.

    In 2012, Australia was the first country in the world to introduce mud-green unit packs for all cigarette packs, and the brand name is now tiny, making the horror pictures huge. Last June, the World Trade Organization (WTO) declared that the standard packaging did not violate international trade rules.

    ______________

    That’s interesting. I would have thought that revenue from taxes on tobacco would start to trend downwards, not go up by a significant amount, as smoking continues to decrease.

    I was in Woolies the other day buying the SMH at the outside bit where they also sell cigarettes, and a woman bought three packs for $36 each. That must cut into people’s wages a lot, especially when you consider that it is typically low wage earners who smoke, and no doubt there are still two pack a day smokers.

  47. Rocket Rocket @ #1229 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 4:20 pm

    Barney

    re French – do any older Vietnamese where you are still speak/understand it?

    I haven’t come across anything here in Go Dau, but in HCMC I met a couple.

    Some of the Christian kids learn it from the French monks at the churches.

    I’ve come across more of it in Laos where there seems to be a more recent tradition of going to Uni in France.

    I once met a group of friends who all studied together in France having a reunion.

    Some stayed in France while others returned to Laos, great people although breakfast was horrible.

    However now in Laos I’ve met kids who go to Vietnam for Uni and they probably would go to Thailand as well.

  48. Ben Murphy
    ‏Verified account @BenBMurph
    8h8 hours ago

    Minister @ShannonFentiman announces 160 free tafe courses available for year 12 students leaving school, will cost taxpayers $30 million #qldpol @7NewsBrisbane

  49. zoomster @ #1042 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:45 pm

    dtt

    Since you still don’t understand the figures, you really should stop using them.

    Zoomster

    Can you be more precise. You clearly could not understand a data set if it leaped up and hit you in the nose.

    Please explain EXACTLY what you mean. Where are the errors?

    Which particular figure are you disputing?

    Or are you still confusing percentages and numbers as you did yesterday.

    Apologies in advance I have actually had a couple so I may choose to give some serves back.

    Honestly Zoomy why are you being so aggressive.

    We all make mistakes. You should just say oh yes that number surprises me or some such.

  50. Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    3m3 minutes ago
    Eventually lying to parliament will attract the same penalty as lying outside the building. (Ie none.)

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