Après le déluge

Situations vacant for aspiring Liberals, first in Wentworth, now in Chisholm, and perhaps soon in Curtin. Also: polls for the ACT Senate and next weekend’s New South Wales state by-election in Wagga Wagga, neither good for the Libs.

Post-leadership change turbulence costs the Liberals a sitting MP in a crucial marginal seat, as preselection hopefuls jockey for safe seat vacancies:

• Liberal MP Julia Banks yesterday announced she will not recontest her Melbourne seat of Chisholm, citing bullying she was subjected to ahead of last week’s leadership vote by the anti-Malcolm Turnbull camp. Banks won the seat on the retirement of Labor member Anna Burke in 2016, making her the only Coalition member to gain a seat from Labor at the election. Rob Harris of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals will choose their new candidate in a community preselection, which presumably entails an open primary style arrangement in which anyone on the electoral roll can participate. Labor has endorsed Jennifer Yang, former adviser to Bill Shorten and mayor of Manningham who ran second as a candidate in the Melbourne lord mayoral election in May, finishing 3.0% behind winning candidate Sally Capp after preferences. The party initially preselected the unsuccessful candidate from 2016, former Monash mayor Stefanie Perri, but she announced her withdrawal in May, saying she had been deterred by the expreience of Tim Hammond.

• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald cites “several senior Liberals” who say the “only real contenders” for the Wentworth preselection are Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel, and Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign. The report says Sharma has moderate factional support, including from powerbroker Michael Photios, while Bragg is supported in local branches. It also says it is no foregone conclusion that Labor will contest the seat, despite having an election candidate in place in Tim Murray, managing partner of investment research firm J Capital. An earlier report by Alexandra Smith suggested Christine Forster’s bid for Liberal preselection appeared doomed in part because, as an unidentified Liberal source put it: “She is an Abbott and how does that play in a Wentworth byelection? Not well I would suggest.”

• Primrose Riordan of The Australian identifies three potential candidates to succeed Julie Bishop in Curtin, assuming she retires. They are Emma Roberts, a BHP corporate lawyer who contested the preselection to succeed Colin Barnett in the state seat of Cottesloe, but was defeated by David Honey; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne; and Rick Newnham, chief econmist at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports a Greens-commissioned ReachTEL poll of the Canberra electorate suggests ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja’s role in Malcolm Turnbull’s demise may have put his seat in danger. Elections for the ACT’s two Senate seats have always resulted in one seat each for Labor, but the Liberal seat could potentially fall to the Greens if its vote fell significantly below one third. After allocating results of a forced response question for the initially undecided, the results are Labor 39.6%, the Greens 24.2%, Liberal 23.7% and One Nation 2.8%. Even accounting for the fact that the Canberra electorate is particularly strong for the Greens, these numbers suggest there would be a strong possibility of Greens candidate Penny Kyburz overhauling Seselja on preferences. The poll also finds 64.6% of voters saying Seselja’s role in Turnbull’s downfall made them less likely to vote for him, with only 13.0% saying it made them more likely to, and 22.4% saying it made no difference. Among Liberal voters, the respective figures were 38.7%, 29.6% and 31.7%.

In other news, the Liberals in New South Wales are managing expectations ahead of a feared defeat in Saturday week’s Wagga Wagga state by-election, most likely at the hands of independent Joe McGirr. Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports a ReachTEL poll commissioned by Shooters Fishers and Farmers has the Liberals on 30.2%, Labor on 23.8%, McGirr on 18.4% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 10.9%, after exclusion of the 7.4% undecided. However, McGirr faces a complication in Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ unusual decision to direct preferences to Labor, which could potentially prevent him from overtaking them to make the final count. According to Clennell’s report, “any government loss post-mortem would be expected to focus on why the Liberals did not let the Nationals run for the seat”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,383 comments on “Après le déluge”

Comments Page 24 of 28
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  1. The Drum panel couldn’t come up with much in the way of achievements for Mal.
    Innovation. Startups.

    I think the way he ruined the NBN will live on.

  4. The following post of mine has been stuck in moderation all day. The fault is entirely mine, as I used a phrase that our Lord and God declared verboten several months ago and I’d forgotten. Even though I realised my mistake immediately and corrected it via the dot function obviously our God cannot be expected to clean up after my mess at a moments notice – a point he has made in the past.

    I’m just placing it here just in case some bludgers think it worthy. If not, feel free to give me the DTT treatment and scroll on by …

    I notice that my old china Michael Fullilove is lamenting that our high rate of prime ministerial turnovers is causing Australia to be viewed as something of a joke on the international diplomatic drinks circuit.

    Perhaps.

    Yet in comparison some other Anglo nations, the antics of our Canberra politicians are actually quite modest: Trump is singlehandedly disproving Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address and across the North Atlantic ditch Mummy is currently running around Europe drunk and naked with her underpants on her head yelling Fuck Off Foreigners.

    Ive copied and pasted the following from the comments section in the UK Guardian’s Brexit article as linked by BK today’s dawn patrol which seems to me to hit the mark. Unfortunately there is no potential leadership across either side of the political Isle in Westminster to see off this looming disaster – one that makes the consequences of all of Australia’s fuckwit poilitical behavior pale:

    “The UK can withdraw article 50 at anytime before 29th March.

    I just hope we do. If not, then every pensioner that voted for brexit should have all their assets removed, houses, pensions, savings, bicycles and given enough to subsist until the economy has recovered to the point before 2016 when they voted to leave.

    And, what makes me really angry, is that now life expectancy is falling. Not for the brexit voting pensioners, but the people coming behind them.

    I mean, what sort of generation would happily see their children and grandchildren poorer, but will happily see them die younger too? What sort of people arre these? Their parents fought a war so they could be free. But, I’m pretty sure they didn’t fight a war so their children could shit all over their grandchildren and great grandchildren.

    They fought a war against Nazi Germany and won. But yet, their children, complain that Germany is running the EU and instead of fighting the UK corner, they do a runner! What sort of cowards did those heroes of World War Two produce?

    I guess fortunately, most of them are dead now and can’t see the shame they’ve brought, not only on their country, but their families too.”

  5. A land of contrasting fortunes. Two headlines today

    Hidden upside to Sydney’s driest 8 months in 50 years
    .
    Perth’s August rainfall highest in 50 years

  6. Yes Ven.

    I put the extracts from this article on this thread earlier today.

    So, if you go back a bit you will find it.

    From Kroger in the CBD column in “The Age” today

  7. Ven @ #1145 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 5:41 pm

    Observer@5:26pm
    I read a report that says the new Angus Taylor has avoided speaking to waiting media after giving a set speech on how he is going bring energy prices down.

    I think you might like to change your reading habits.

    A Suggestion.

    https://www.dw.com/en/10-brothers-grimm-fairy-tales-you-should-know/a-39214540

    10 best Grimm fairy tales

    Hansel and Gretel

    This story was recorded by Dortchen Wild, a storyteller who married Wilhelm Grimm. As it turns out, the theme of leaving children in the woods was quite popular in European folktales. A French story, “Le Petit Poucet” from 1967, starts out almost identically, while Madame d’Aulnoy’s “Finette Cendron” mentions three princesses who get lost in the woods and find their way to an ogre’s house.

    A popular story for today might be the la purée de pommes de terre sorry French not German.

    Vast improvement on self indulgent BS from Mr. Taylor.

    🙄🙄🙄

  8. NSW’s health authority is warning the public about weight loss drugs known as ‘shredders’, after numerous deaths in Australia and overseas.

    Details on the deaths cannot be made public as they are under police investigation, but NSW Health says products containing the chemical 2,4-dinitrophenol (DNP) can cause death within hours.

    Marianne Gale from NSW Health said DNP prevents energy being stored as fat in the body, releasing it as heat instead.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2018/08/31/shredders-deadly-weight-loss/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%2020180831

  10. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 29m29 minutes ago

    Indonesian trade deal hero, Scott Almighty Morrison on ABC TV “news” starts with “win-win” and crams at least four other vapid cliches into the bite put to air. Totally out of his depth. Not waving but drowning. Truth is that Ciobo’s utterly failed to put together any real deal.

  11. I can only hope in retirement he finds a voice and contributes in a way he could not in Parliament.

    Pfft. I hope if he does speak up for anything it is something I’m dead against. Anything he ever speaks up for is doooooooomed.

    But mostly I hope he just fucks off and counts his money. Awful prick has polluted our public life for far too long.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood (AnonBlock)
    Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 5:48 pm
    Comment #1149

    Thanks for your post. I really don’t know what to say about this except that stupidity must be the end point of evolution.

  15. Scummo comes out with the mud accusations!

    Scott Morrison says an accusation Peter Dutton misled Parliament over au pairs is ‘mud-slinging’

    Of course, how stupid of us.

    In March, Greens MP Adam Bandt asked Mr Dutton whether he could “categorically rule out any personal connection or any other relationship between you and the intended employer of either of the au pairs”.

    “The answer is yes,” Mr Dutton told Parliament.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-31/dutton-au-pairs-greens-accuse-minister-of-misleading-parliament/10188432

  17. Heard Pyne say today that the only reason the au pairs were of interest was because they were female (and sexy?). Look over there…

  18. Sceptic

    Re Matt Canavan and Coal, he became an adherent when he was a staffer for Barnyard, indeed he was Cheif of Staff to the BeetRooter before winning a QLD Senate spot. As has been well documented, Barnyard was duchessed by Big Gina, and Canavan would have inhaled the coal dust by osmosis.

  19. Loving the French coverage…

    Le ministre australien de l’Intérieur était sur la sellette vendredi à la suite de révélations selon lesquelles il était personnellement intervenu pour venir en aide à des jeunes filles au pair française et italienne dont le visa touristique avait été annulé.

    Peter Dutton, principal architecte d’un putsch interne au parti conservateur qui vient d’avoir raison de l’ex-Premier ministre Malcolm Turnbull et chantre de la politique d’immigration draconienne mise en oeuvre par Canberra, nie farouchement tout agissement répréhensible. Mais il n’a pas réussi à apaiser le scandale. Une commission sénatoriale doit enquêter sur l’affaire la semaine prochaine à la demande de l’opposition.

    Babysitter française pour un riche donateur

    Dans le premier cas, Peter Dutton, qui était alors ministre de l’Immigration, a usé de ses pouvoirs discrétionnaires en novembre 2015 pour faire libérer une Française en détention et lui permettre de rester en Australie. Selon des documents obtenus par la chaîne publique ABC et d’autres médias australiens, le ministre répondait à une demande d’intervention du patron de la Ligue australienne de football Gillon McLachlan.

    https://www.bfmtv.com/international/australie-un-scandale-de-jeunes-filles-au-pair-frappe-l-artisan-de-la-tolerance-zero-envers-les-clandestins-1514793.html#page/contribution/index

  20. Barney in Go Dau @ #1146 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 5:36 pm

    Add to that the fact that we have an upcoming election, so it quite reasonable to expect that the last position expressed on an issue is not the one taken to the next election.

    Don’t be silly. We could have an election at a moment’s notice. And this has been the situation for months – nay, years – now. How is it that Labor is missing policy in key areas?

    Labor does not have a population policy. They barely have an immigration policy – at least not one they are willing to enunciate and defend. Their climate policy is better, but also still quite vague.

    We (rightly) castigate the Greens for having policies that were written on the back of an envelope back in the 1980’s and never updated.

    Labor has had years to develop policies in all the key areas. They have not done so. Why not?

  21. Player One @ #1168 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1146 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 5:36 pm

    Add to that the fact that we have an upcoming election, so it quite reasonable to expect that the last position expressed on an issue is not the one taken to the next election.

    Don’t be silly. We could have an election at a moment’s notice. And this has been the situation for months – nay, years – now. How is it that Labor is missing policy in key areas?

    Labor does not have a population policy. They barely have an immigration policy – at least not one they are willing to enunciate and defend. Their climate policy is better, but also still quite vague.

    We (rightly) castigate the Greens for having policies that were written on the back of an envelope back in the 1980’s and never updated.

    Labor has had years to develop policies in all the key areas. They have not done so. Why not?

    You’ve obviously never experienced an election campaign.

    Parties tend to release new policies throughout them all the time.

    You just keep demonstrating that you have NFI. 🙂

  23. (Pedant alert)

    It’s gratifying to see Minister Cash is reaching out and employing people who have struggled with NAPLAN.

    “As the minister has consistently said, neither her or her office are under investigation.”

    Which this little pedant thinks should read:

    As the minister has said consistently, neither she nor her office is under investigation.

    Four errors in the one short sentence is pretty good going.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/31/labor-claims-michaelia-cash-avoiding-scrutiny-in-awu-raid-investigation

  26. P1

    ‘But she claimed Labor had policies’

    Yes, I did. And they do. That I don’t know the policy in one particular area doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

  27. Aunt Mavis (formerly, Old Mavis) @ #1048 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:17 pm

    citizen:

    SloMo is in deep nitrogenous waste. Why he accepted the chalice goes to his lack of political smarts. He should’ve waited until after the election to seek the leadership of the Tory Party, as the LOTO.

    Like Gillard before him, his hand may have been forced by circumstance.

  29. And our Roman QuadBike is getting into a twitter debate with our Andrew Elder, on the #libspill – here is Roman’s latest…

    I think you’ll find that’s because it was a strategic shambles. Less tectonic shifts, more dust storms. Not many issues at play either so that was going to loop quickly. It was the denuding of the myth of the altruistic politician that was remarkable to me. Very #wizardofoz

  31. Sprocket – thanks for the French article. I’ve invoked Monsieur Google to translate:

    The Australian Interior Minister was in the hot seat on Friday after revelations that he had personally intervened to help French and Italian au pairs whose tourist visas had been canceled.

    Peter Dutton, the main architect of a Conservative party internal coup that has just defeated former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and champion of Canberra’s draconian immigration policy, is fiercely denying any wrongdoing. But he did not succeed in appeasing the scandal. A Senate commission must investigate the case next week at the request of the opposition.

    French babysitter for a wealthy donor

    In the first case, Peter Dutton, who was then Minister of Immigration, used his discretionary powers in November 2015 to release a French woman in custody and allow her to stay in Australia. According to documents obtained by the public channel ABC and other Australian media, the minister responded to a request for intervention from the boss of the Australian Football League Gillon McLachlan.

  33. [‘Labor has had years to develop policies in all the key areas. They have not done so. Why not?’]

    Oh really Player, please stop it.

    Labor has enunciated its polices for some five years – you just don’t get it!

  34. ItzaDream @ #1171 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    (Pedant alert)

    It’s gratifying to see Minister Cash is reaching out and employing people who have struggled with NAPLAN.

    “As the minister has consistently said, neither her or her office are under investigation.”

    Which this little pedant thinks should read:

    As the minister has said consistently, neither she nor her office is under investigation.

    Four errors in the one short sentence is pretty good going.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/31/labor-claims-michaelia-cash-avoiding-scrutiny-in-awu-raid-investigation

    Spot on with the last three, but the adverb “consistently” can considered a frequency adverb and so has a place after the verb to be, “has”, in this case.

    You’re not wrong with your placement, but both are acceptable. 🙂

  35. sprocket_
    The translation of a French tv station’s report gives far better descriptions than the local press.

    Ultra-conservative, the Minister of the Interior would have intervened personally in visa files. In a country with a fierce immigration policy.

    Peter Dutton, the main architect of a Conservative party internal coup that has just defeated former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and champion of Canberra’s draconian immigration policy ,
    https://translate.google.com.au/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=https://www.bfmtv.com/international/australie-un-scandale-de-jeunes-filles-au-pair-frappe-l-artisan-de-la-tolerance-zero-envers-les-clandestins-1514793.html&prev=search

  38. Barney in Go Dau @ #1184 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 6:20 pm

    ItzaDream @ #1171 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    (Pedant alert)

    It’s gratifying to see Minister Cash is reaching out and employing people who have struggled with NAPLAN.

    “As the minister has consistently said, neither her or her office are under investigation.”

    Which this little pedant thinks should read:

    As the minister has said consistently, neither she nor her office is under investigation.

    Four errors in the one short sentence is pretty good going.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/31/labor-claims-michaelia-cash-avoiding-scrutiny-in-awu-raid-investigation

    Spot on with the last three, but the adverb “consistently” can considered a frequency adverb and so has a place after the verb to be, “has”, in this case.

    You’re not wrong with your placement, but both are acceptable. 🙂

    Twas thinking of you BiGD and hoping for your feed back, thanks.

  39. Turnbull running away with tail between his legs:

    Kieran Gilbert
    Kieran Gilbert
    @Kieran_Gilbert
    ·
    1h
    .
    @TurnbullMalcolm
    has just tendered his resignation
    #auspol

    @SkyNewsAust

  43. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tony Smith announced that he is considering possible dates for the by-election for the electoral division of Wentworth having received today a letter of resignation from The Hon Malcolm Turnbull #auspol

  46. Tim Murray
    Tim Murray
    @Timpmurray
    ·
    13m
    Officially endorsed as ALP candidate for Wentworth by election at 5:30 pm today! Thank you for all your support

  47. P1

    And got the three best results Labor ever achieved in this area. Oh, probably four, if you count the State election.

  49. Player One @ #1191 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1171 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    You just keep demonstrating that you have NFI. 🙂

    And you just keep demonstrating that you are willing to vote for a party that develops policy “on the fly”.

    Who’s saying that’s what they are doing?

    And, what’s wrong with policy on the fly?

    If you find a policy is deficient in some way then you need to adapt it.

    You really are a joke! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

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