Post-leadership change turbulence costs the Liberals a sitting MP in a crucial marginal seat, as preselection hopefuls jockey for safe seat vacancies:
• Liberal MP Julia Banks yesterday announced she will not recontest her Melbourne seat of Chisholm, citing bullying she was subjected to ahead of last week’s leadership vote by the anti-Malcolm Turnbull camp. Banks won the seat on the retirement of Labor member Anna Burke in 2016, making her the only Coalition member to gain a seat from Labor at the election. Rob Harris of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals will choose their new candidate in a community preselection, which presumably entails an open primary style arrangement in which anyone on the electoral roll can participate. Labor has endorsed Jennifer Yang, former adviser to Bill Shorten and mayor of Manningham who ran second as a candidate in the Melbourne lord mayoral election in May, finishing 3.0% behind winning candidate Sally Capp after preferences. The party initially preselected the unsuccessful candidate from 2016, former Monash mayor Stefanie Perri, but she announced her withdrawal in May, saying she had been deterred by the expreience of Tim Hammond.
• Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald cites “several senior Liberals” who say the “only real contenders” for the Wentworth preselection are Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel, and Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign. The report says Sharma has moderate factional support, including from powerbroker Michael Photios, while Bragg is supported in local branches. It also says it is no foregone conclusion that Labor will contest the seat, despite having an election candidate in place in Tim Murray, managing partner of investment research firm J Capital. An earlier report by Alexandra Smith suggested Christine Forster’s bid for Liberal preselection appeared doomed in part because, as an unidentified Liberal source put it: “She is an Abbott and how does that play in a Wentworth byelection? Not well I would suggest.”
• Primrose Riordan of The Australian identifies three potential candidates to succeed Julie Bishop in Curtin, assuming she retires. They are Emma Roberts, a BHP corporate lawyer who contested the preselection to succeed Colin Barnett in the state seat of Cottesloe, but was defeated by David Honey; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne; and Rick Newnham, chief econmist at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports a Greens-commissioned ReachTEL poll of the Canberra electorate suggests ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja’s role in Malcolm Turnbull’s demise may have put his seat in danger. Elections for the ACT’s two Senate seats have always resulted in one seat each for Labor, but the Liberal seat could potentially fall to the Greens if its vote fell significantly below one third. After allocating results of a forced response question for the initially undecided, the results are Labor 39.6%, the Greens 24.2%, Liberal 23.7% and One Nation 2.8%. Even accounting for the fact that the Canberra electorate is particularly strong for the Greens, these numbers suggest there would be a strong possibility of Greens candidate Penny Kyburz overhauling Seselja on preferences. The poll also finds 64.6% of voters saying Seselja’s role in Turnbull’s downfall made them less likely to vote for him, with only 13.0% saying it made them more likely to, and 22.4% saying it made no difference. Among Liberal voters, the respective figures were 38.7%, 29.6% and 31.7%.
In other news, the Liberals in New South Wales are managing expectations ahead of a feared defeat in Saturday week’s Wagga Wagga state by-election, most likely at the hands of independent Joe McGirr. Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports a ReachTEL poll commissioned by Shooters Fishers and Farmers has the Liberals on 30.2%, Labor on 23.8%, McGirr on 18.4% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 10.9%, after exclusion of the 7.4% undecided. However, McGirr faces a complication in Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ unusual decision to direct preferences to Labor, which could potentially prevent him from overtaking them to make the final count. According to Clennell’s report, “any government loss post-mortem would be expected to focus on why the Liberals did not let the Nationals run for the seat”.
zoomster @ #1048 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:50 pm
And it’s much easier than actually having policies, right?
Totally unscientific, anecdotal etc etc …
Total strangers have started to approach me in the supermarket to b*tch about the government.
Believe me, this only happens when the sh*t is really going down…
BK:
[‘I wonder if at QT questions can be directed at special envoys.’]
Enoys are, I think, under parliamentary secretaries, slightly higher than a lonely back-bencher, a way of getting rid of recalcitrants. This government fools few.
P1
Just as well we have policies as well, then.
Steve those numbers are not comparable. You need to add state and local government numbers. In the US there are elections for dogcatcher 🙂
Morrison’s woes continue to pile up:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-31/rate-rises-roll-out-as-suncorp-and-adelaide-bank-follow-westpac/10187804
If there is a housing market crash, I sure hope it comes before Labor get into power.
P1
Seriously, your argument seems to be: “This is a fact, so this can’t be a fact.”
‘Storms in teacups’ can bring down governments; that doesn’t mean that there aren’t good policies as well.
And Labor isn’t really running this storm in a teacup, anyway.
“I’m the US there are elections for dogcatcher “
Stop the dogs!!
zoomster:
[‘Total strangers have started to approach me in the supermarket to b*tch about the government.’]
Do they know your political affiliations, or is it just random?
French TV has picked up #potataupairGate
Australie: un scandale de jeunes filles au pair frappe l’artisan de la tolérance zéro envers les clandestins
bfmtv.com/international/…
New DPM has not made any comments, had interviews about bullying or the Au Pair affair. Failed first test.
I think half the problem for the Coalition Government is the vacuum where there should be policies, seeing as the only things they have been doing lately is ditching policies (Neg, Tax) that until now were apparently absolutely vital for the nation (and Labor for opposing any of them were evil nation-destroyers).
So – nature abhors a vacuum, and ‘storms in teacups’ suddenly become huge news.
Dutton is gone – September 9th.
There were more public servants handling the applications five years ago, and possibly fewer applicants. Ditto in Centrelink.
“Fudging” the figures is a secondary effect.
kakuru says @ Friday, August 31, 2018 at 2:42 pm
“The nexus between Senate and House of Representatives for all the 6 states means that if we increase the HoR we have to increase the number of Senators. But this doesn’t apply for the territories. I vaguely recall at one stage the NT was given 2 seats in the HoR even though on a strict quota basis it should only have been allocated 1 seat.
This nexus, plus the fact that Tassie gets 5 HoR seats by fiat, is rather unfair. There could be a situation in the future under which South Australia has more people than Tasmania but the same number of seats in the HoR. (I wonder if it’s even a real possibility that SA could have TWICE the population of Tasmania, but the same number of seats.)”
Greetings all, longtime lurker, first-time poster etc. etc.
I did some back of the envelope calculations last year, based on the projected population figures that resulted in Victoria gaining a seat.
To get some equality into the HoR population per division across the country, we would need to increase the size of the Senate to 18 per state (i.e. 50% increase), for 108 senators from the states. Via the nexus provisions, this requires 216 MHR from the states, distributed as NSW 71 (+24) VIC 57 (+20) QLD 44 (+14), SA 16 (+5), WA 23 (+7), TAS 5 (+0). From the territories, ACT 4 (+1) and NT 2 (+0). This results in all states and territories being capable of having a population per division between 100,000 and 110,000 (except for NT, where it is closer to 124,000). For the territories, I would suggest increasing Senators in the same proportion as the states (50% extra, or 3), with the population per Senator for the territories comparable to SA and WA. TAS remains an outlier here, but that is unavoidable.
So that is equitable across the country, but do we really want 50% more pollies?
Aunt Mavis
The conversation starts with “You’re that Labor woman, aren’t you?”
(Alas, I hoped that running as a candidate would mean everyone could pronounce my name…)
Ooohhh… Dutton has the PM’s full confidence.
He’s Doomed.
..also the government seems to have increased identity tests across the board – for example, I’ve known people who have applied to Centrelink who have had to prove they’ve been naturalised, despite previously being registered with Centrelink.
If Dutton gets the sack, will he resign his seat and thus cause a by-election?
Might he be threatening to do this to try and keep Home Affairs?
zoomster @ #1064 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 1:08 pm
Is that why he took Immigration away from him in the reshuffle? 🙂
Woohoo!
It is raining cats and dogs at chez Donnamaria!
View from the webcam on the roof:
#rainonPB
zoomster @ #1054 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:54 pm
What’s the ALP’s population policy?
A Pear
Welcome – and thanks for the calculations. I just don’t know what to think. Australian Parliament just muddles along : 75 – 125 – 148 -150 – 151 and will probably continue like that.
I am seriously starting to consider whether a change to MMP (perhaps a hybrid one like New Zealand) with one chamber would be better. And given our Constitution and referenda etc it would be much harder to change than it was in NZ.
don – long may it rain!
Player One
What’s the ALP’s population policy?
We’ll have what they’re having.
zoomster @ #1057 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 3:56 pm
???
They can. They shouldn’t be counted on doing so. Nor would there be much legitimacy in gaining government this way.
No, just barracking from the sidelines. And lobbing the occasional grenade.
Honestly, i cant see the Morrison Govt being able to do anything effective in the way of policy and governance for the rest of their term. When parliament goes back they are going to be hit on multiple fronts with various issues and scandals. And what “policies” are they going to have to follow up on??
Energy? LOL!
Immigration? Au Pair!!
Banking / Superannuation regulation?? Lol!
Indigenous affairs?? Abbott…nuff said 🙁
They may get a bit of traction on drought / water but FFS they have Barnyard fronting that (facepalm) and all they have to offer is some pie in the sky dams project brainfart and $ handouts to farmers.
trade deal with Indonesia?? Really, who cares??
They are toast at the next election which frankly, should happen as soon as possible. We may then get a period of actual stability and good or at least working governance as the RWNJobbies shout themselves into oblivion and irrelevance while they fade away from their current hysterical peak.
Ok. i will own being an optimist but i genuinely see this current period as just about peak nutjob and can see a more “centrist” period in australian politics approaching.
One thing that really does concern me is what appears to be the coming fall of Trump. This has the potential to go bad as he seems to be setting himself up to be able to call on a stupid, but probably well armed “base” of reactionary idiots when the law catches up with him. Not revolution or coup i’m thinking . There are too many people in the US who are actually sane and good people. But there are also an awful lot of nuttbaggers with guns as well and it only takes a few. 🙁
Aunt Mavis: “Why he accepted the chalice goes to his lack of political smarts. He should’ve waited until after the election to seek the leadership of the Tory Party, as the LOTO.”
I can’t imagine any parliamentarian knocking back the opportunity to become PM, even if they are facing the prospect of leading their party to electoral defeat in the near future.
It’s square #100 on the snakes and ladders board.
don @ #1070 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 4:14 pm
I’m jealous! We have had only a couple of mm here 🙁
Just curious – why do you have a webcam on the roof?
A Pear
Welcome to the Bludger Lounge, pull up a chair and have one on the house.
BBC picks up the au pair story:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-45351318
Meanwhile CNN highlights the Catholic church response on child sexual abuse (presumably because it is also applicable in other countries)
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/30/australia/australia-catholic-church-response-intl/index.html
I caught up with an old mate from my Veterans Rugby days for lunch two days ago. He and I had many warm ( not heated…) “discussions” about politics over the years. He was a strong Liberal supporter and really gave it to me over the RGR debacle all those years ago.
The first thing he said as we sat down with some cold Boags was -“don’t say a thing about politics. All I know is for certain is that, for the first time since my long-haired days at Uni, I’m going to vote Labor. And I’m in Dutton’ s electorate.”
And with that, we downed several more Boags and over lunch, dissected the Wallabies’ performance, which,while being problematic, have a greater chance of getting over the tryline than the Coalition.
Rocket Rocket says:
Friday, August 31, 2018 at 4:18 pm
don – long may it rain!
_______________
Thanks! Looks like there is at least another half an hour in it on the radar.
KJ should have got it too, maybe just easing up for him now.
APear
“So that is equitable across the country, but do we really want 50% more pollies?”
I don’t. But I’d prefer more MPS in the HoR – not more Senators. The nexus is the problem, and we’re stuck with it.
As Australia’s population grows, and new electorates are created in and around coastal population centres, some of those rural seats are going to become utterly gigantic in geographical extent.
imacca says: Friday, August 31, 2018 at 4:20 pm
Honestly, i cant see the Morrison Govt being able to do anything effective in the way of policy and governance for the rest of their term. When parliament goes back they are going to be hit on multiple fronts with various issues and scandals. And what “policies” are they going to have to follow up on??
They are toast at the next election which frankly, should happen as soon as possible. We may then get a period of actual stability and good or at least working governance as the RWNJobbies shout themselves into oblivion and irrelevance while they fade away from their current hysterical peak.
******************************************************
As some US comedian said ” Politicians and diapers have one thing in common… they should both be changed regularly, and for the same reason.”
French TV has picked up #potataupairGate
________
Ah, Messieur le pomme de terre tête
I haven’t been following the Dutton story as closely as I should, perhaps, but I have noticed that Dutton’s defence is all about “Any Labor Minister would have exactly the same powers as I do. ”
To me, Dutton’s problem is not his use of his powers, it’s the discrimination between the au pairs and the refugees.
Zoom,
I’ve known people who have applied to Centrelink who have had to prove they’ve been naturalised, despite previously being registered with Centrelink.
I’ve heard the same for passport renewal applicants. Fucks with your travel plans big time, that does. Which makes you very angry at the Govt, and very happy to tell anyone willing to listen.
lizzie @ #1086 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 4:24 pm
And this is where Labor’s failure to differentiate themselves sufficiently will come back to bite them. **
** No, I am no saying they are “same same” – just that they are not sufficiently distinguishable to the average punter for them to claim any moral high ground.
Player One says:
Friday, August 31, 2018 at 4:21 pm
don @ #1070 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 4:14 pm
Woohoo!
It is raining cats and dogs at chez Donnamaria!
I’m jealous! We have had only a couple of mm here
View from the webcam on the roof:
Just curious – why do you have a webcam on the roof?
______________________________
To look at the weather of course!
We tried to get council to put one on the roof of the airport, the sensible place for such a camera, but the council is totally dysfunctional in Armidale, and refused point blank.
So, said the little red hen, very well, I will do it myself!
And I did.
If you want to see the weather in Armidale and the view from my roof (click on the small picture (thumbnail) to get the full size image), go to:
http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=Armidale.NSW&radar
Socrates @ #617 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 8:04 pm
This was posted last night, yet I haven’t seen any further reference to it today nor can I find mention on the ABC website.
Anyone heard anything?
To me it sounds very significant. 🙂
There are different visa classes with different requirements and conditions. Everybody knows this. Airport officers have pretty wide discretion.
Working holiday visas are only available to certain countries. Arrangements are reciprocal.
Plenty of brown people would be admitted despite queries at airports about their intention. It would be good if some here might inform themselves.
The Tasmanian electorate will never ever allow the abolition of the Senate and that kill it dead as half the voters in any state can kill any attempt to deprive their state of is proportionate representation in either chamber. Same with WA SA and probably Queensland. I doubt Victoria and NSW would be on board either. The Senate is safe, save some kind of some kind of extra-constitutional constitutional replacement (coup, civil war etc.) and that would not be a good outcome.
MMP is also hard in the House of Representatives because of the strict population based apportionment of seats preventing overhang mandates (which are necessary in full MMP to keep proportionality) and the same and state electorate can veto reform rule applies there.
Don – well done on webcam. What are the costs for installing and maintaining?
don @ #1089 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 4:28 pm
Nice!
P1
‘** No, I am no saying they are “same same” – just that they are not sufficiently distinguishable to the average punter for them to claim any moral high ground.’
Which is probably why they opted for sniping from the sidelines, and looking at other areas of policy.
Earlier……….Peterjk23
Sorry, but I can’t make any sense of your comment about “paying” students, failing and associated comments.
My simple point is that that Dutton waving his magic wand to let two, if not more, au pairs through is one thing. It is another it was done with haste, with what seems to be a very flimsy reason base and ‘others’ in the background with work and/or wealth/political connections calling for favours.
The Pub Test is a pretty good start…………..something about looking like a duck, making a sound like a duck and waddling like a duck……………is likely to mean……………it is a duck. However, the implications as far as Dutton are concerned go right to the heart of his probity as a Minister of the Crown. Really not much more to consider I would have thought.
Rocket Rocket @ #1093 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 4:17 pm
No thanks. It’s reasonable to have a house of review. And reasonable for the house of review to be as obstructionist as it can get away with. Governments like to claim mandates, however most voters don’t actually want governments uncheckedly pursuing an ideological agenda.
zoomster: “‘Storms in teacups’ have seen Ministers dismissed and governments brought down before.
A teddy bear saw a Minister dismissed.
A bottle of Grange did for a Premier.
A slightly off comment about someone’s wife did for a State OL.”
And a representation on behalf of a constituent in a Family Law matter did for another State OL.
Caesar’s wife and all that.
The government typically takes strong action against visa overstayers who are found working illegally, and sometimes takes action against their employers as well. These are not insignificant problems, no matter what some posters on here might think.
zoomster @ #1095 Friday, August 31st, 2018 – 4:31 pm
Or, they could be brave and enunciate their policy in this area.
Just for the record … what actually is it?
“Emma Alberrici sums up the reality of Liberal coal mining policy in this tweet:
“EXCLUSIVE to #abcPM @alexbhturnbull “There is undue influence on Lib party policy by a small group of miners who have assets they probably regret purchasing that don’t make a lot of sense anymore & they’re trying to engineer an outcome which makes those projects economic” #auspol”
This stranded assets stuff from Alberici and Turnbull Jnr is not new. In fact, it is years old. Why have they waited so long to mention it? It’s about time some people found more up-to-date and honest news sources.