Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Plenty of work to do for the new Prime Minister, if his Newspoll debut offers even the slightest guide. ReachTEL seat polls offer a somewhat more mixed picture.

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor has opened a towering two-party lead of 56-44, compared with 51-49 in the last poll under Malcolm Turnbull a fortnight ago. Labor is up fully six points on the primary vote to 41%, while the Coalition is down four to 33%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down two to 7%. Bill Shorten also holds a 39-33 lead over Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister, which compares with 44-32 in Turnbull’s last poll. No indication yet of whether the normal field work dates of Thursday to Sunday, or the sample of 1600, were amended according to circumstances.

UPDATE: The Newspoll turns out to have been conducted from Friday to Saturday, so with Thursday chopped off the usual survey period, but with the sample size much as usual at 1783. It also has a best Liberal leader question that differs from earlier results in suggesting a transfer of support from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison, leaving Julie Bishop in first place on 29%, Morrison second on 25%, Turnbull third on 14%, and Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton at 11% and 6% respectively, much as they were before. A “more capable of handling the economy” question has Morrison leading Shorten 44-34. It doesn’t appear the usual leadership approval ratings were featured in the poll.

The Fairfax papers also have three ReachTEL polls for marginal Coalition seats, conducted over two nights rather than ReachTEL’s usual one and apparently with bigger than usual samples (I say apparently because each of the three results tables cites a sample size of 1047 respondents, which surely can’t be right). The results are highly diverse: strong for Peter Dutton in Dickson, adequate for Craig Laundy in Banks and disastrous for Michael Sukkar in Deakin. However, they differ from Newspoll in having Morrison leading Shorten on preferred prime minister.

• Peter Dutton leads 54-46 in Dickson, compared with his post-redistribution margin of 2.0%. Morrison holds a particularly big lead over Bill Shorten here as preferred prime minister, of 58.6-414.

• After a high-profile week of public support for Malcolm Turnbull, Craig Laundy leads 52-48 in Reid, compared with a post-redistribution margin of 4.7%. Morrison’s lead over Shorten is 55-45.

• Michael Sukkar, a conservative spear-carrier for the push to remove Malcolm Turnbull, trails Labor 53-47 in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, a 9.3% swing.

The polls also find voter overwhelmingly opposed to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, opposed to an early election, not wanting Tony Abbott to return to the front bench, opposed to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and broadly favourable views on Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer. There is no great variation on these results between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,354 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Is that the lowest 2pp in a decade or primary vote? Hard to imagine them having a lower primary since Menzies established the liberals

  2. You know when people lose their cool in the heady times of action and hubris, and then wonder what the hell they are going to do with the collection of 1000 garden gnomes they just had to bid the highest for in the auction?

    I would rather be that person than a Lib tonight.

  3. If they go to early election they get marked down by voters, if they demonstrate their policy ambition as opposed to just talking about them, they will get marked down.

    They have painted themselves into a multi-dimensional corner.

    WB: you need to start selling pb branded baseball bats in team colors.

  4. And I am doubly glad that people still want something done about Climate Change! That’s the most important result for me personally tonight.

  5. So Sco-mo has his first newspoll loss under his belt. He’s never going to match Abbott or Turnbull

    Yeah but what Morrison may lack in quantity, he will make up in quality.

  6. This poll would have been worse if Dutton had won and the Abbott/Dutton right wing nutjob faction of the Liberal party’s attack had been successful.
    Morrison led the defence against them after Turnbull was fatally wounded and by defeating them has already limited the damage.

  7. I wonder what Josh’s Mini Budget is going to look like then?

    If Costello is helping him then the spigots will likely be turned on full and cash will be splashed!

  8. The amazing thing is that the Labor primary vote is at 40+ AND the Greens are at 10+. Normally you’d expect one to be high at the expense of the other, but now they’re both polling very well without it hurting the other. Add in the other centrist and left wing minors and that’s a massive vote against the right.

  9. Chris KennyVerified account@chriskkenny
    1m1 minute ago
    Hardly surprising… check back in a month for any real sense….

    Of course the Sky News after dark crowd would say there’s nothing to see here with tonight’s Newspoll.

  10. This will narrow soon as the news cycle moves on. Regardless it has hurt the Liberal brand significantly. Also shows when/if people want to change the government they will flock to Labor.

    I wish we could see some state breakdowns.

  11. Firefox

    Yes. Greens and Labor not fighting has done wonders for the primary vote.

    I noted the restraint of both sides in public. It has paid off.

  12. Richo proving he was always a Tory hack, even when wearing Labor colours:

    To rebuild the brand, he must first rebuild his party and by that I am not merely referring to the parliament party. The rank and file in the Liberal base has deserted in droves to the point where finding the personnel to man polling booths is now a serious problem. I am disappointed to hear he will not be including Tony Abbott in his Cabinet. If he did, the base would be impressed and pleased. They would return to the fold and all could be forgiven.

    To demonstrate that there is a real difference between himself and his unloved and unlamented predecessor he should immediately dump that outrageous rort of a grant to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation. The stench of his is the talk of the nation and it would be a very good idea to show the world that Morrison does not dump largesse on his mates without any process. To calm the Right, and because it is the right thing to do, he should ensure that two coal-fired generators with all the new whiz-bang technology get started as soon as possible.

    If he coupled that with a cut to our record levels of immigration he just might make a dent in Labor’s lead in the polls.

    I do not believe Morrison will win the next election but at least it will now be a contest. A great deal of furniture may now be saved.

  13. 1) Seat polling is unreliable.

    2) Newspoll wow! Even taking 2 or 3 points off and taking 47-53 is a good result for Lab at an election.

    3) Is Newspoll still doing its heavier weighting of PHOn preferences to Lib?

  14. I0M – Kevin Bonham says that if last election preferences were used, labor would have got 57.1. So the answer to your question must be ‘yes’.

  15. Not sure that things like Bishop wafting off and the composition of the Ministry will keep the polling around this result? Reckon it will all come out in the wash, swings and roundabouts and settle @ 53/47 or so.

    Not that i would be unhappy to be proved wrong. 🙂

    And, its results like this that will encourage that army of volunteers the ALP have available and keep them motivated. They will be going into an election with a real chance of not only winning, but giving the Tories a damn good kicking. While the Libs base have seen a lot of what hope they had sucked out of them by the idiocy and greed of their MP’s.

    Liked the MCManus interview tonight where she made the point that the ACTU’s “war chest” in $ terms is not as relevant as the people they have ready and are fighting for.

  16. Bit higher than I was expecting actually. Will happily take it.

    Being Sunday, is this the end of Bill’s most pleasant week ever, or the start of another really really nice week for Bill?

    Oh and btw, seat polling can gagf. I get my toilet paper in rolls.

  17. “I can imagine quite a few babies being born in 9 months time in Labor households.”

    Which will be just after the election date.

  18. Yes the spill was an exceptionally bad idea, but it was not Morrison’s idea, not that it is probably going to make much difference.

  19. Always expected a 2PP result like this but the primary vote change, wow! Would have expected a higher contribution coming from a jump in PHON vote. This could have huge implications for the Senate if Labor can get 3 seats plus a Green in a few states.

  20. Didn’t Hitler believe that Germany needed to be destroyed in order to remove all impurities, and then be rebuilt in the National Socialist image?

    Or was that someone else?

    What I’m suggesting is that if you go out of your way to destroy a political party – to the point that everyone who’s relatively “normal” leaves in disgust and exasperation – then doesn’t that just make more room for the fanatics and crazies to take over?

    I wouldn’t put any part of the above beyond Abbott’s fevered imaginings.

    Remember he doesn’t prosper by raising others to his level so he can ride on their shoulders. Abbott is never happy until he’s the last man standing.

  21. Imacca, I don’t see why labor will give a lot of this back unless Morrison performs particularly well (which he won’t do). This sort of polling will also open up a lot of fresh wounds in the Liberal Party. Parties get very cannibalistic when they are facing certain defeat.

  22. After this polling, about which Bill Shorten surely has questions to answer, i think ScoMo is hoping its time for Albo to make another Speech. 🙂

  23. Given voters lack of engagement, I don’t think there would’ve much difference who the Liberals elected leader. This poll is a reflection of voters response to the leadership change,
    Also Turnbull was well known, and ‘liked’, which doesn’t mean people would have voted for the Liberals, but that they weren’t happy with him getting sacked.

    Parties (both Labor and the Liberals) have themselves to blame for changing leaders, the ‘transaction costs’ are higher than previously thought and getting higher.
    It affected Labor with the electorate in general, for Liberals, getting rid of Turnbull hit their base.

  24. Don’t get too Vicky.

    Turnbull had a similar ascendancy over Shorten.

    Everything is changeable, and it can happen in short order too.

  25. I must say I was surprised by this result, but there could well be some logic behind it.

    From a public perception:

    When Rudd was deposed, he was sliding in the opinion polls and Julia Gillard initially got a bounce because she was widely respected.

    When Julia Gillard was deposed, the Labor Government was electoral poison and Rudd was seen as a far more popular choice, as well as being seen as recovering his ‘rightful’ position.

    When Tony Abbott was deposed, the nation heaved a sigh of relief because his singular incompetence and unsuitability for the position of PM made his position untenable.

    But why Malcolm. Us political tragics could see reasons – his total policy vacuousness, his appalling political judgement and the absolute hatred of the small number of inhabitants in a little echo chamber.

    Ask the public though and, while continually disappointed with Turnbull, still favoured him and actually bought the absurd line that he did the best he could with a difficult party and a difficult coalition partner. There was nobody popular waiting in the wings, although JBish was moderately so but in reality well behind Turnbull.

    For the voters it was inexplicable. The ultimate example of MPs and Senators treating the leadership of the nation as their personal plaything, rather than a serious position that people want to look up to and respect. Of the four PMs who have been deposed by their parties in the last decade, none seems as pointless – on any level – and bizarre as this one.

    The Coalition government is dead party walking.

  26. @Bushfire Bill

    Totalitarian ideologies of all stripes believe in the complete destruction of the old order, so a new order based on their ideology can be built. I like to call it “smash the system” :p

  27. BB

    Its the polices wot done it!

    Thats my take on how Labor will win.

    The morale factor counts but with compulsory voting lost less here than OS.
    I don’t see Labor being complacent or underestimating the mountain they have to climb. They will just accept the assist in their climb the spill has given them.

    The lesson out of the spill is not just personality. Its the flat earther climate mob will wreck the party to delay climate policy

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