Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails

Newspoll finds the prime ministership would have been a handy thing for Peter Dutton to have in his tight race for Dickson. Also featured: a closer look at how that failed to come to pass.

The Australian has a large-sample Newspoll for Peter Dutton’s election of Dickson, conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1846, partly in expectation that things would have played out a little differently. On a standard voting intention question, the poll shows Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48 (a 3.6% swing from 2016), from primary votes of LNP 37% (down from 44.6%), Labor 37% (up from 34.9%), Greens 9% (down from 9.9%) and One Nation 10%. But when asked about voting intention if Dutton were Prime Minister, this became 50-50, and did so because of a 5% primary vote transfer from One Nation to the LNP (Labor gained one point, and the Greens were unchanged). The Australian’s report also reveals Dutton did better on the first night of polling than the second, and surmises this was the effect of the Section 44 story taking hold. However, the changes quoted are not statistically significant, and appeared to be bigger for the Turnbull-as-PM question than for Dutton.

Now a guide to who did what in the party room leadership votes on Tuesday and yesterday, drawing on four sources – starting with a table laying it all out, followed by the gory details. Cabinet ministers are in bold and underlined, outer ministry members are in bold, assistant ministers are in italics. An asterisk denotes those who, while identified as Turnbull backers, are among those The Australian thinks might have been the sole abstainer in round one (more on that shortly). Arthur Sinodinos’s two asterisks denote the fact that he was absent in the first round, though I presume he would have voted for Turnbull if present.

The first of the three sources is a list published in The Australian on Wednesday identifying how each member was believed to have voted in the Turnbull-versus-Dutton round the previous day. If I understand correctly, The Australian believed it had a handle on every vote, with one complication: one member out of a list of fifteen suspects abstained rather than voting for Turnbull. Second is a list of the forty-three signatories to the petition calling for a party room meeting has been doing the rounds on social media.

Thirdly, the Fairfax papers have published lists of how members were believed to have voted in Morrison-versus-Dutton. This has more holes than The Australian’s list, with seven listed as “unknown”. The fourth source, from The West Australian, lists how WA Liberal MPs voted, which plugs three of Fairfax’s gaps. It also disagrees with Fairfax in placing Slade Brockman in the Dutton rather than Morrison camp – I’m going with The West here. That leaves four still down as unknown, and assuming all the foregoing is correct, three of them must have voted for Morrison and one for Dutton.

Nine members who appear to have voted for Turnbull in the first round were signatories to the petition: Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Ian Goodenough, Slade Brockman, Andrew Laming and John McVeigh, who moved to the Dutton camp; Mitch Fifield, who voted for Morrison; and Warren Entsch and Jane Hume, who are down as unknowns. The forty-three signatories included everyone who voted for Dutton in either vote, with two exceptions: Christian Porter and Bert Van Manen, the latter presumably relating to his position as Whip. Porter is reported as having switched from Turnbull to Dutton; Van Manen is not disclosing who he voted for, but The Australian and Fairfax both identify him as being in the Dutton camp. Scott Buchholz voted for Dutton against Turnbull and signed the petition, but is down as unknown for Morrison versus Dutton.

Significant home state effects were evident in that Morrison won 14-6 among the New South Wales contingent, while Dutton won 12-4 (plus two unknowns) among Queenslanders. However, Julie Bishop apparently struck out entirely among her WA peers in the first round, her eleven votes having been sourced elsewhere (except her own). I’m not aware of any record of who the eleven were. Western Australia otherwise distinguished itself in having a substantial bloc switch from Turnbull to Dutton, most conspicuously Matthias Cormann and Michaelia Cash. They were apparently joined by Christian Porter, who kept a lower profile about it, along with Slade Brockman and Ian Goodenough. However, Ben Morton went the other way, supporting Dutton in the first vote and Morrison in the second. All told, the state split 11-5 for Turnbull over Dutton, then 9-7 for Dutton over Morrison. The South Australians broke 6-2 to Morrison.

Of seventeen lower house members with margins of 6% or less, nine voted for Morrison and six for Dutton, with a further two unknown. Four of Dutton’s six were from Queensland; the only Queensland marginal seat holder not in the Dutton column is Warren Entsch, down as unknown.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,932 comments on “Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails”

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  1. C@t, the CCC has already had a go at Robert

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-23/federal-mp-stuart-robert-gold-coast-council-corruption-ccc/8381372

    Basically, he was alleged to be the bagman for his staffers standing for the local council – bankrolling them from his Fadden Forum slush funded by Gold Coast developers. His staffers were standing as independents.

    Nothing to see here – oh and now Stuart Robert will oversee the FIRB making decisions on foreign investment.

    All this talk about the Liberal Party being short on money, well Stuart, have we got a job for you!

  2. Simon² Katich® says:

    nath, If you let me bring the whiskey then I am in. You can keep the soup, hugs and beers to yourself (unless you have a stash of some really good Russian Imperial Stout – then hugs can not be avoided).

    Simon, surely you can do better than that? I mean to say -really!

  3. If lots of voters say that they want the govt to go the whole term, doesn’t that reflect in the PPM? Some voters are effectively saying. I want the PM to stay. They are not really saying he is better.

  4. So is Scott Morrison going to do a bit of speaking in tongues to make it rain for the farmers? I heard he wasn’t taking any money with him, that’s all. 😉

  5. And Stuart Robert did get acquitted by the CCC…

    The corruption watchdog found although Mr Robert facilitated the donation of the funds to his staffers, there was “insufficient evidence” to show they were fundraising as a group.

    “Consequently, as there is no evidence of an offence committed by Cr Boulton or Ms Stevenson, it would not be possible to prove that Mr Robert aided, counselled or procured either of them to commit such an offence,” the report handed down on Wednesday said.

    The CCC found Cr Boulton and Ms Stevenson both falsely declared the Fadden Forum – a fundraising arm of the Liberal National Party – had donated to their campaigns when in actual fact it came from the organisation itself.

    As both women had since lodged an amended disclosure form with the Electoral Commission of Queensland, the watchdog found it would “not be in the public interest” to take any further action.

  6. @WeWantPaul

    Wow, he said that? As I see it Fascism and Nazism are in a category of their own, especially when it comes to economics.

    His cousin Leith runs the Macrobusiness blog, which is well worth a read.

  7. Sky News is not worth my time to watch, even when it comes on free to air. They let a scientific racist such as Stefan Molyneux on their channel. By the way I have watched some of his videos, he does hold scientific racist views. Also they allowed Lauren “it’s okay to be white” Southern on the show, who has been banned from entering the UK by their Home Office.

    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Stefan_Molyneux
    https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Lauren_Southern

  8. Rocket Rocket

    I thrashed Julie Bishop :). My time was about 58:30 and hers was 66:10. Still I guess she is a bit older.

    I was in the top 10% of my age category (50-59).

    I was stoked to come in under the hour and I certainly owe some thanks to Andrew Earlwood for his suggestions on how I should prepare. The conditions were really nice today but the last hill on Oceanic Drive was a struggle.

  9. “@WeWantPaul
    Wow, he said that? As I see it Fascism and Nazism are in a category of their own, especially when it comes to economics.”

    He said it on twitter, was taken to task by many, many people, then said twitter was vile for telling him he was wrong and said something like he’d only use twitter to plug crap in the future and that he wouldn’t engage on it, so I blocked him. I think then he doubled down on his stupidity with an article that might have been the Australian because I didn’t even click on it for a laugh.

  10. “The conditions were really nice today but the last hill on Oceanic Drive was a struggle.”

    I did the half a few years back and I was mentally ready for that hill, but as soon as I got to the top I was all but dead, I hadn’t really thought about the km or so from the top of the hill to the finish line …

  11. @SkyNewsAust
    17m17 minutes ago
    More
    .@mirandadevine: Because @TurnbullMalcolm was a liberal PM the left media didn’t embrace him and the right media was smashing him morning, noon, and night.

    The “left media” always nearly supported Malcolm Turnbull, when real ‘lefties’ and even centrists like me were critical of Turnbull for being a shill of the corporate elite.

  12. “Donald Trump for his many faults, was a quite successful business man. Scott Morrison is another hack in comparison.”

    I don’t think there is a lot of evidence to support the claim he was a very successful business man. All the evidence seems to be that he was either a fraud or failure at almost every business and has been operating as a 3rd or 4th tier mob criminal for more than 20 years. So yeah I’m not seeing any success as a business man, except perhaps for the ‘how do you make a millionaire, start with a billionaire who owns an airline.”

  13. “The “left media” always nearly supported Malcolm Turnbull”

    The left media had a deep abiding and unhidden love for Malcolm the Magnificent.

  14. WeWantPaul @ #1860 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 9:22 pm

    “Donald Trump for his many faults, was a quite successful business man. Scott Morrison is another hack in comparison.”

    I don’t think there is a lot of evidence to support the claim he was a very successful business man.

    That’s putting it mildly.

    Can we all at least agree that “getting a huge wad of cash from your rich father then having multiple business ventures go bankrupt” is not the same thing as “being good at business”?

    Trump is just another spoiled rich brat. And he can’t even do that competently.

  15. WeWantPaul

    I did the half a few years back and I was mentally ready for that hill, but as soon as I got to the top I was all but dead, I hadn’t really thought about the km or so from the top of the hill to the finish line …

    There were some african drummers just short of the top of the hill and that gave me a bit of a lift and kind of helped me to maintain a rhythm. I really enjoyed that last 1.5 km of downhill!

  16. Dave Donovan…

    Not sure about Barnaby in this drought envoy role.
    I mean, the man hasn’t seen a dry day for years!

  17. Can we all at least agree that “getting a huge wad of cash from your rich father then having multiple business ventures go bankrupt” is not the same thing as “being good at business”?
    _____________________________
    Bankruptcy is a different beast in the U.S.A. If trump controlled 11 companies and 3 went bankrupt while 5 did ok and 3 went great, that’s a win.

  18. Jolyon Wagg @ #1862 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    Rocket Rocket

    I thrashed Julie Bishop :). My time was about 58:30 and hers was 66:10. Still I guess she is a bit older.

    I was in the top 10% of my age category (50-59).

    I was stoked to come in under the hour and I certainly owe some thanks to Andrew Earlwood for his suggestions on how I should prepare. The conditions were really nice today but the last hill on Oceanic Drive was a struggle.

    Congratulations!

  19. “People suggest Newspoll will be 54-46 to ALP.”

    Not exactly a “shocker”.

    EDIT: so is that number 40 for Turnbull or 1 for Morrison? Hopefully he’ll only have a chance to get to about 15.

  20. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    29s29 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 44 (-5) ALP 56 (+5) #auspol

  21. The ‘left media’. Very droll Miranda Devine.

    The Oz media in OZ were in a frenzy about Albo doing a speech, and then heralded Turnbull’s NEG ‘victory’ just days before he was rolled.

  22. WeWantPaul @ #1867 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    “Donald Trump for his many faults, was a quite successful business man. Scott Morrison is another hack in comparison.”

    I don’t think there is a lot of evidence to support the claim he was a very successful business man. All the evidence seems to be that he was either a fraud or failure at almost every business and has been operating as a 3rd or 4th tier mob criminal for more than 20 years. So yeah I’m not seeing any success as a business man, except perhaps for the ‘how do you make a millionaire, start with a billionaire who owns an airline.”

    He owned casinos that went bankrupt. It takes a special kind of incompetence to manage that.

    Someone did a calculation that if he had invested his inherited money in a fund that tracked the S&P500 he’d be a lot richer than he is purported to be now.

  23. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    23s24 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 33 (-11 compared to Turnbull) Shorten 39 (+7) #auspol

    The Australian
    ‏Verified account @australian
    2m2 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Popular support for the Coalition has crashed to the lowest levels in a decade https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-popular-support-for-coalition-at-lowest-level-in-a-decade/news-story/cf52dcfdfdd80c5f0e28c27a9e9557b0 … #Newspoll

    Is this LNP 39 Newspoll Lost ?

  24. @C@tmomma

    Miranda wasn’t referring to those media outlets, she would consider them as probably communist :p

    Anyway I seriously believe Scott Morrison will be quite unpopular. His poor communication style will certainly not help.

  25. Popular support for the Coalition has crashed to the lowest levels in a decade with the newly elected Prime Minister Scott Morrison now faced with leading a shattered government out of the wreckage of last week’s leadership coup and rebuilding a Liberal Party in crisis.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition’s primary vote dropping four points to 33 per cent following the week long chaos that ended Malcolm Turnbull leadership, while Labor’s rose to 41 per cent.

    The two party preferred split between the two parties has also blown out from a slim two point gap of 49/51 in favour of Labor only a fortnight ago to a twelve point margin, with Labor now leading 56/44.

    In the first head to head poll to test Mr Morrison’s public appeal, Mr Shorten has emerged as the more popular leader, reversing a 12 point lead by Malcolm Turnbull two weeks ago into a six-point lead (39/33) for the Opposition leader over the new prime minister.

    It is the first time since February 2015 that Mr Shorten has been the nation’s preferred prime minister.

  26. Someone did a calculation that if he had invested his inherited money in a fund that tracked the S&P500 he’d be a lot richer than he is purported to be now.
    ________________________________________
    Maybe but where’s the fun in that.

  27. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 33 (-11 compared to Turnbull) Shorten 39 (+7) #auspol

  28. Horror Newspoll for Coalition
    AUGUST 26, 2018
    Popular support for the Coalition has crashed to the lowest levels in a decade with the newly elected Prime Minister Scott Morrison now faced with leading a shattered government out of the wreckage of last week’s leadership coup and rebuilding a Liberal Party in crisis.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition’s primary vote dropping four points to 33 per cent following the week long chaos that ended Malcolm Turnbull leadership, while Labor’s rose to 41 per cent.

    The two party preferred split between the two parties has also blown out from a slim two point gap of 49/51 in favour of Labor only a fortnight ago to a twelve point margin, with Labor now leading 56/44.

    In the first head to head poll to test Mr Morrison’s public appeal, Mr Shorten has emerged as the more popular leader, reversing a 12 point lead by Malcolm Turnbull two weeks ago into a six-point lead (39/33) for the Opposition leader over the new prime minister.

    It is the first time since February 2015 that Mr Shorten has been the nation’s preferred prime minister.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-popular-support-for-coalition-at-lowest-level-in-a-decade/news-story/cf52dcfdfdd80c5f0e28c27a9e9557b0

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