Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails

Newspoll finds the prime ministership would have been a handy thing for Peter Dutton to have in his tight race for Dickson. Also featured: a closer look at how that failed to come to pass.

The Australian has a large-sample Newspoll for Peter Dutton’s election of Dickson, conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1846, partly in expectation that things would have played out a little differently. On a standard voting intention question, the poll shows Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48 (a 3.6% swing from 2016), from primary votes of LNP 37% (down from 44.6%), Labor 37% (up from 34.9%), Greens 9% (down from 9.9%) and One Nation 10%. But when asked about voting intention if Dutton were Prime Minister, this became 50-50, and did so because of a 5% primary vote transfer from One Nation to the LNP (Labor gained one point, and the Greens were unchanged). The Australian’s report also reveals Dutton did better on the first night of polling than the second, and surmises this was the effect of the Section 44 story taking hold. However, the changes quoted are not statistically significant, and appeared to be bigger for the Turnbull-as-PM question than for Dutton.

Now a guide to who did what in the party room leadership votes on Tuesday and yesterday, drawing on four sources – starting with a table laying it all out, followed by the gory details. Cabinet ministers are in bold and underlined, outer ministry members are in bold, assistant ministers are in italics. An asterisk denotes those who, while identified as Turnbull backers, are among those The Australian thinks might have been the sole abstainer in round one (more on that shortly). Arthur Sinodinos’s two asterisks denote the fact that he was absent in the first round, though I presume he would have voted for Turnbull if present.

The first of the three sources is a list published in The Australian on Wednesday identifying how each member was believed to have voted in the Turnbull-versus-Dutton round the previous day. If I understand correctly, The Australian believed it had a handle on every vote, with one complication: one member out of a list of fifteen suspects abstained rather than voting for Turnbull. Second is a list of the forty-three signatories to the petition calling for a party room meeting has been doing the rounds on social media.

Thirdly, the Fairfax papers have published lists of how members were believed to have voted in Morrison-versus-Dutton. This has more holes than The Australian’s list, with seven listed as “unknown”. The fourth source, from The West Australian, lists how WA Liberal MPs voted, which plugs three of Fairfax’s gaps. It also disagrees with Fairfax in placing Slade Brockman in the Dutton rather than Morrison camp – I’m going with The West here. That leaves four still down as unknown, and assuming all the foregoing is correct, three of them must have voted for Morrison and one for Dutton.

Nine members who appear to have voted for Turnbull in the first round were signatories to the petition: Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Ian Goodenough, Slade Brockman, Andrew Laming and John McVeigh, who moved to the Dutton camp; Mitch Fifield, who voted for Morrison; and Warren Entsch and Jane Hume, who are down as unknowns. The forty-three signatories included everyone who voted for Dutton in either vote, with two exceptions: Christian Porter and Bert Van Manen, the latter presumably relating to his position as Whip. Porter is reported as having switched from Turnbull to Dutton; Van Manen is not disclosing who he voted for, but The Australian and Fairfax both identify him as being in the Dutton camp. Scott Buchholz voted for Dutton against Turnbull and signed the petition, but is down as unknown for Morrison versus Dutton.

Significant home state effects were evident in that Morrison won 14-6 among the New South Wales contingent, while Dutton won 12-4 (plus two unknowns) among Queenslanders. However, Julie Bishop apparently struck out entirely among her WA peers in the first round, her eleven votes having been sourced elsewhere (except her own). I’m not aware of any record of who the eleven were. Western Australia otherwise distinguished itself in having a substantial bloc switch from Turnbull to Dutton, most conspicuously Matthias Cormann and Michaelia Cash. They were apparently joined by Christian Porter, who kept a lower profile about it, along with Slade Brockman and Ian Goodenough. However, Ben Morton went the other way, supporting Dutton in the first vote and Morrison in the second. All told, the state split 11-5 for Turnbull over Dutton, then 9-7 for Dutton over Morrison. The South Australians broke 6-2 to Morrison.

Of seventeen lower house members with margins of 6% or less, nine voted for Morrison and six for Dutton, with a further two unknown. Four of Dutton’s six were from Queensland; the only Queensland marginal seat holder not in the Dutton column is Warren Entsch, down as unknown.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,932 comments on “Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails”

Comments Page 37 of 39
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  1. nath, If you let me bring the whiskey then I am in. You can keep the soup, hugs and beers to yourself (unless you have a stash of some really good Russian Imperial Stout – then hugs can not be avoided).

  2. Simon² Katich® says:
    Sunday, August 26, 2018 at 8:21 pm

    nath, If you let me bring the whiskey then I am in. You can keep the soup, hugs and beers to yourself (unless you have a stash of some really good Russian Imperial Stout – then hugs can not be avoided).
    ______________________________
    🙂

  3. After watching St.Kilda’s disappointing season come to an end I am cheered by the result of that Deakin poll. Even on the new boundaries he is in trouble and the Dutton stuff is going to harm him.

  4. The Fairfax polls had 1047 respondents (350 each?). I note others skepticism of sest level polls. But Sukars primary vote is down 8% and Laundy by 5%. If that was applied to the rest of Sydney and Melbourne…

    Have the Liberals saved Qld by losing the country? Or was it just about buying more time for their coal industry paymasters?

  5. Imagine if Happy Clapper ScoMo tried to claim that The Drought Ended because Jesus has come to Cronulla to save us.

  6. Hehe…

    Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein

    from shagger-in-chief to drought envoy. this really is a wide brown land of opportunity.

  7. @Madcyril

    The Liberal vote is down by 8% in Deakin, no way they would retain the seat if their primary vote is down by that much and Morrison has been PM for two days.

  8. I predict that part of the libs re-election campaign will be that “Australia has had 7 PM changes in 11 years, and the Australian people want stability and the labor will roll Bill Shorten as soon as they get a chance”.

    I also predict we get 8 PM changes within 12 years.

    The Deakin results reported in the Age suggest electoral wipe-out for the libs. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/deakin-voters-turn-on-dutton-plotter-sukkar-in-poll-of-crucial-seats-20180826-p4zzwd.html

  9. I forgot to mention the right-wing ideologies are also furious about the UN compact on immigration Australia plans to sign.

    Australia, I have observed is behind the rest of the Western world by about a few years politically, at least in the last decade.

    In the rest of the Western world populist, nationalist conservative parties have been electorally quite successful. The election of Donald Trump in the USA, the election of the Conservatives under the populist Doug Ford in Ontario and rise of parties advocating populist, national conservatism across Continental Europe. Once the Coalition enters opposition, either the Liberals or Nationals will go down a populist, national conservative path.

    If say the Liberals were to adopt a National Conservative ideology, along with economic protectionism which would be a part of an economic nationalist ideology. I can see them being electorally successful.

  10. Kezza2 @8:22pm
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/08/25/newspoll-dickson-poll-liberal-party-room-vote-entrails/comment-page-36/#comment-2882277

    Re your comments about J Bishop
    I agree – emphatically.

    There was a reason the party removed her from position of shadow treasurer in 2009 after only 5 months in the position. She was rubbish at it.
    Mind you, the party is filled with talentless no-hopers, so maybe she does have an argument about discrimination.

  11. Rocket Rocket
    says:
    Sunday, August 26, 2018 at 8:24 pm
    After watching St.Kilda’s disappointing season come to an end I am cheered by the result of that Deakin poll.
    _____________________________
    Seeing that someone raised the footy can I say to Perth residents to be aware that in a fortnight a marauding Collingwood army will descend upon your shanty town by the Indian Ocean. Good luck.

  12. “On home territory, as a short-lived Treasurer, woefully inadequate.”

    That was Shadow Treasurer, but she was woefully inadequate at that.

  13. Presumably the 99% of women in the ALP who haven’t reached the post of Foreign Minister are also failures who didn’t achieve power and are poor role models for women.

  14. Sky News Australia

    Verified account

    @SkyNewsAust
    13m13 minutes ago
    More
    .@mirandadevine: I understand that @ScottMorrisonMP had a lot of debts to pay because the moderates helped him, but to make @cpyne Defense Minister and @MarisePayne Foreign Minister will enflame conservatives like nothing else.

  15. PP Morrison 58% Shorten 41%
    All this proves is that PP polling is 100% irrelevant measure of anything
    Unless it means PP is always the same as party holding Government.

  16. @Sceptic

    Scott Morrison is little known in the electorate and maybe Bill Shorten is quite disliked by voters.

    Although I am skeptical on seat level polling given their inaccuracy in the recent by-elections.

  17. Samantha Maiden tweets…

    How wild is it that new Assistant Treasurer Stuart Robert quit after a furore over a China trip and donors and now gets to decide all the FIRB applications and big real estate buys

  18. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    15s15 seconds ago

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Dickson 2 Party Preferred: Dutton LNP 54 (+2.4 since election) ALP 46 (-2.4) #auspol

    lol

  19. “Once the Coalition enters opposition, either the Liberals or Nationals will go down a populist, national conservative path.”

    I think they’ve been on that path since about 2008, although there is nothing at all conservative about it.

    The appeal of Brexit and Trump isn’t a genuine nationalist, racist, populist thing. It is a perceived ‘fix’ to a problem, the problem being the inequality and economic torpor delivered by 40 years of:

    ‘if you just give away this [insert thing good for worker / average person]’ we will all be rich. It will be fabulous.’

    In Australia Tony Abbott led the global nationalist populist idiocy charge with his successful campaign to become PM. Just he couldn’t deliver. Malcolm the magnificent took over to deliver. Just he couldn’t.

    Personally I think there is a lot of scope for Labor to be brave and strong and very populist in the good sense, and rewrite some of the rules, but I don’t see it has the courage or leadership to do so. For example I think promise of very significant investments in renewables would be a no brainer.

    It has been floated before but I think in this environment a no frills basic banking service through a banking license to Australia post would be an immensely popular and sensible step. I think a promise to finish fraudband properly with fibre to the driveway and then to turn around and retrofit all the fibre to the nodes with to fibre to the driveway would be very very well received.

    A broad ‘fair go for the future’ strategy I think would upset the CPG who would try and frame Labor’s position against the old rules (that they didn’t actually apply to Abbott or Malcolm the Magnificent), but I think a bit of laughter and ‘fake news’ jokes would be all you’d need there.

  20. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Deakin 2 Party Preferred: LIB 47 (-8.7 since election) ALP 53 (+8.7) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    57s57 seconds ago

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Reid 2 Party Preferred: LIB 52 (-2.7 since election) ALP 48 (+2.7) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    1m1 minute ago

    #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Reid 2 Party Preferred: LIB 52 (-2.7 since election) ALP 48 (+2.7) #auspol

  21. @Zoidlord

    I am waiting for the National level polls, plus it will take a little time until the full effects of this week’s events are known.

    So far Deakin doesn’t look good with a 8% swing against the Liberals on the primary vote. I believe they are in serious trouble in Victoria. Chisholm, Corangamite, Latrobe are now likely totally lost. Seats such as Deakin, Casey, Aston and even Menzies could be under threat.

  22. So a few more get themselves a ministry gig for a few months so they get to be called “the Honour” for the rest of their lives.

  23. It surprises me that Scott Morrison is little-known in the electorate. He’s had a high profile for 10 years, screaming “Boats! Boats! Boats!” his whole time in Opposition when the issue had a high profile, indeed the subject of a major moral panic stoked in popular media. Then his time as Treasurer. People must have the memory of a goldfish.

  24. @BridgetOFlynn
    13m13 minutes ago
    More
    Chris Kenny paraphrased: There’s a #Newspoll tonight and it’s a shocker
    #auspol

  25. Stuart Robert should be looked at very closely by the Queensland government. He’s close to the White Shoe Brigade on the Gold Coast. Now that Labor have their new Anti Council Corruption Bill through.

  26. I’d say Payne is the only bearable, near competent person in the ministry. Saying that, she hasn’t had a portfolio that factionalism or general liberal nastiness doesn’t make impossible to run i.e. immigration, energy, treasury, IR, environment or social services (god there’s a lot of them).

  27. Haven’t heard it but would not be surprised – always struck me as an amateur who would only stay while the going is good

    Hartsuyker has pulled the pin and Oakeshott is considering his options – given the current climate I think he would have a chance

  28. “It surprises me that Scott Morrison is little-known in the electorate. He’s had a high profile for 10 years, screaming “Boats! Boats! Boats!” his whole time in Opposition when the issue had a high profile, indeed the subject of a major moral panic stoked in popular media. Then his time as Treasurer. People must have the memory of a goldfish.”

    I was listening to a crooked media pod, probably Lovett or Leave it, and they were talking about how rich white guys just ‘fail up’ in the US as best illustrated by Trump, and well perhaps Morrison is a good example of ‘failing up’. If you start with the easy job of doing a tourism add, and f*ck that up, you can be PM one day.

  29. Zoidlord:

    Kevin Bonham retweeted that, I don’t follow PVO on twitter. I am very skeptical towards the media in Australia due to their consistent pro-Coalition bias.

    @WeWantPaul

    Donald Trump for his many faults, was a quite successful business man. Scott Morrison is another hack in comparison.

  30. Quite good polls for Labor, I would have thought, even though seat level. Shortie’s neck and neck with the shiney new PM (Turnbull if I recall was quickly up about 85 – 15)! except in Duttonland. Maybe in Dutton’s own electorate they like Morrison because he’s NOT Dutton. Odd one.
    Anyway, don’t see a Honeymoon in those polls. So I assume that Kenny’s ” shocker ” is very bad for the govt.

  31. Why is it that Liberal PMs are always allowed time to settle in to the job and prove themselves, whereas everyone expects Labor PMs to hit the ground running from Day 1 !?!

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