Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails

Newspoll finds the prime ministership would have been a handy thing for Peter Dutton to have in his tight race for Dickson. Also featured: a closer look at how that failed to come to pass.

The Australian has a large-sample Newspoll for Peter Dutton’s election of Dickson, conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1846, partly in expectation that things would have played out a little differently. On a standard voting intention question, the poll shows Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48 (a 3.6% swing from 2016), from primary votes of LNP 37% (down from 44.6%), Labor 37% (up from 34.9%), Greens 9% (down from 9.9%) and One Nation 10%. But when asked about voting intention if Dutton were Prime Minister, this became 50-50, and did so because of a 5% primary vote transfer from One Nation to the LNP (Labor gained one point, and the Greens were unchanged). The Australian’s report also reveals Dutton did better on the first night of polling than the second, and surmises this was the effect of the Section 44 story taking hold. However, the changes quoted are not statistically significant, and appeared to be bigger for the Turnbull-as-PM question than for Dutton.

Now a guide to who did what in the party room leadership votes on Tuesday and yesterday, drawing on four sources – starting with a table laying it all out, followed by the gory details. Cabinet ministers are in bold and underlined, outer ministry members are in bold, assistant ministers are in italics. An asterisk denotes those who, while identified as Turnbull backers, are among those The Australian thinks might have been the sole abstainer in round one (more on that shortly). Arthur Sinodinos’s two asterisks denote the fact that he was absent in the first round, though I presume he would have voted for Turnbull if present.

The first of the three sources is a list published in The Australian on Wednesday identifying how each member was believed to have voted in the Turnbull-versus-Dutton round the previous day. If I understand correctly, The Australian believed it had a handle on every vote, with one complication: one member out of a list of fifteen suspects abstained rather than voting for Turnbull. Second is a list of the forty-three signatories to the petition calling for a party room meeting has been doing the rounds on social media.

Thirdly, the Fairfax papers have published lists of how members were believed to have voted in Morrison-versus-Dutton. This has more holes than The Australian’s list, with seven listed as “unknown”. The fourth source, from The West Australian, lists how WA Liberal MPs voted, which plugs three of Fairfax’s gaps. It also disagrees with Fairfax in placing Slade Brockman in the Dutton rather than Morrison camp – I’m going with The West here. That leaves four still down as unknown, and assuming all the foregoing is correct, three of them must have voted for Morrison and one for Dutton.

Nine members who appear to have voted for Turnbull in the first round were signatories to the petition: Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Ian Goodenough, Slade Brockman, Andrew Laming and John McVeigh, who moved to the Dutton camp; Mitch Fifield, who voted for Morrison; and Warren Entsch and Jane Hume, who are down as unknowns. The forty-three signatories included everyone who voted for Dutton in either vote, with two exceptions: Christian Porter and Bert Van Manen, the latter presumably relating to his position as Whip. Porter is reported as having switched from Turnbull to Dutton; Van Manen is not disclosing who he voted for, but The Australian and Fairfax both identify him as being in the Dutton camp. Scott Buchholz voted for Dutton against Turnbull and signed the petition, but is down as unknown for Morrison versus Dutton.

Significant home state effects were evident in that Morrison won 14-6 among the New South Wales contingent, while Dutton won 12-4 (plus two unknowns) among Queenslanders. However, Julie Bishop apparently struck out entirely among her WA peers in the first round, her eleven votes having been sourced elsewhere (except her own). I’m not aware of any record of who the eleven were. Western Australia otherwise distinguished itself in having a substantial bloc switch from Turnbull to Dutton, most conspicuously Matthias Cormann and Michaelia Cash. They were apparently joined by Christian Porter, who kept a lower profile about it, along with Slade Brockman and Ian Goodenough. However, Ben Morton went the other way, supporting Dutton in the first vote and Morrison in the second. All told, the state split 11-5 for Turnbull over Dutton, then 9-7 for Dutton over Morrison. The South Australians broke 6-2 to Morrison.

Of seventeen lower house members with margins of 6% or less, nine voted for Morrison and six for Dutton, with a further two unknown. Four of Dutton’s six were from Queensland; the only Queensland marginal seat holder not in the Dutton column is Warren Entsch, down as unknown.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,932 comments on “Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails”

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  1. Howard was asked if they should adopt Labor’s leadership rules
    I don’t think changing the rules is a good idea,” Mr Howard said, of Kevin Rudd’s suggestion that the Liberals should follow in the Labor Party’s footsteps.

    “What’s the point of bringing in rules if, in any event, they can be set aside?”

    Under Labor’s leadership rules, MPs and members elect a new leader over a month-long process. The long timeframe is designed to give electors time to scrutinise the candidates and test their suitability for the pressures of the leadership.

    Given Shortens’s term as opposition leader, and events of last week, I cannot see the caucus overturning the rules, presumably as a prelude to a
    leadership change.
    Apart from everything else, they would have to face the Labor members.

  2. Diogenes @ #1739 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    KayJay
    I read The Blooding ages ago. I think it was the first time a murder was solved using DNA. That and a very lucky overheard conversation….

    Yes indeedy, I am about to start on Nelson de MIlle books and will then go and re-read Joseph Aloysius Wambaugh books. Great stuff.
    The TV show tonight is part 3 I think. It has been shown previously but is new to me.

  3. Many thanks again to all who regularly post here. BK’s efforts are priceless. KayJay, ratsak, grimace, briefly, antonbruckner, Phoenix Red, Victoria, zoomster, Catmomma, jenauthor, guytaur, lizzie, mari, Bushfire Bill, LU, ar, Player One, Douglas and Milko, shellbell, Windhover, Observer, all others – terrifically informative, insightful, often humorous, always greatly appreciated.

    Great. No-one ever mentions me in these. Just as well I dont care. Well, normally I dont…. but heck – even guytaur gets a guernsey!

  4. If it turns out Turnbull caved on this it’s just further grist to the mill that he was prepared to bow and scrape at the feet of the reactionaries within his party to keep his leadership.

    What do you mean if?

  5. Jacqui Maley is in mourning:

    Criticisms can be made of most politicians’ records, and Morrison should be given a chance to prove himself as Prime Minister. But it is a sign of the times, of how far to the right the Liberal party’s goalposts have been moved, that someone with this history could be considered a moderate.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-says-he-is-on-our-side-but-after-last-week-s-war-whose-side-is-the-liberal-party-on-20180824-p4zzoh.html

    Scales are being lifted from eyelids all over the place.

    Murpharoo’s anger was palpable as she assured her Guardian readers that the punters “will remember”.

    Probyn this morning on Insiders was almost in tears.

    Nikki Savva looks like she hasn’t slept for a week.

    Only ScoMo, the Energizer Bunny, and the equally stimulated Tony Abbott look like they’re enjoying this. Maybe old Dutts as well… until he twigs that he was just a pawn in this game of thrones. As for the rest? It’ll sink in soon enough. They’ll know for sure when the public servants start cc’ing each other in on routine emails.

    Bill Shorten wished Malcolm Turnbull well in his dotage as a granddad, with (presumably) young Jack on his lap (that was cruel Bill, but you got away with it).

    The sense of grief is thick in the air as, one by one, the CPG Turnbull boosters, come to grips with the reality that their man is gone, baby, gone: Never. To. Return. Camelot never was, and now never will be.

    Instead they got Hillsong.

    You gotta laugh.

  6. Great. No-one ever mentions me in these. Just as well I dont care. Well, normally I dont…. but heck – even guytaur gets a guernsey!

    I’m quite chuffed with my high ranking actually.

    But if it’s any consolation Katto I enjoy your work and Guytaur is basically a scroll by. 😉

  7. @ratsak

    In my experience business types generally are pragmatic types, they are concerned about making as much money as they can. Right wing ideologies (ones who aren’t involved in business) have been voicing opinions which are beginning to clash with the business types. Even the Business types are starting to regard some of the stuff the ideologies are saying as crazy.

    The right wing ideologies I have encountered on twitter apart from regarding Malcolm Turnbull as a ‘closet lefty’, regard him as a ‘globalist’ in the service of the banking cartels and George Soros*. They are even regarding as the enemy fellow right wing ideologies as they see as ‘globalists’. Scott Morrison will probably end being seen as ‘globalist’ and therefore opposed to them.

    * Those people reserve a special place in hell for George Soros, arguing he interferes in individual countries politics by funding activist groups.

  8. Is that the sound of Michael Pezzulo crying into his Tia Maria that I hear, no longer to be the Secretary with the mostest Ministry to administer? 🙂

  9. [‘My detestation of Julie Bishop over-rode my better judgement. I should have left well enough alone.’]

    Great to witness a deseved apology, rare on this site!

  10. Confessions @ #1701 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 5:01 pm

    Can I just say that it is possible to disagree with JBishop’s values, her actions as both lawyer and parliamentarian, and her conduct as someone occupying a senior leadership role within her party, while lamenting the way she was treated by her (mostly) male colleagues given her loyal service to 3 party leaders, and acknowledge her achievements, most esp as a woman within the Liberal party?

    Just restating as there are some commenters (lamentably women) who don’t get this.

    We’ve had over 100 years of federation and JBishop in 2018 (2018!!) has achieved what no other woman for the Liberal party has ever achieved. Not to mention in all the time we’ve had state and federal governments, only 2 women have ever led Liberal governments. Two!! This is appalling and is a poor reflection on the state of the Liberal party today.

    It was 10 years ago PvO wrote of the Big Swinging Dicks inside the Liberals gunning for her. Yet she survived all that and served as deputy leader of the party for 10+ years and in the FM portfolio for 8.

    Puffy, Don and Clem Atlee: Are you getting now how hard it is being a woman in today’s Liberal party? Can you appreciate what JBishop has been up against in achieving what she’s achieved? You might disagree with her on a range of fronts, as do I, but you can’t take away from the fact her career in federal parliament and in her party has been remarkably successful despite the odds stacked against her given her gender.

  11. I would be more interested in the ancient scripts supposedly in the Vatican archive. Mystical and historical stuff they wanted to hide (and not just church manuscripts).

  12. Bushfire, I also think that nothing would have given the Press Gallery a clear perspective on Turnbull.
    They thought they were being perceptive in saying he wasn’t a very good politician, without
    1) thinking about the implications of this, and
    2) implicitly or explicitly, saying this was a good thing.

  13. I think it’s very easy to under-estimate what a huge risk the ascendancy of Scrot is for the Libs ON TOP OF all their other problems. If the general population decides that they do not want a smiling pentacostal blokey bloke from the Shire as a Prime Minister because he has absolutely none of the poise and gravitas needed to be a Prime Minister, his elevation will be an utter debacle. He is NOT a bland choice. He is a very risky one.

  14. ratsak @ #1751 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 5:40 pm

    If it turns out Turnbull caved on this it’s just further grist to the mill that he was prepared to bow and scrape at the feet of the reactionaries within his party to keep his leadership.

    What do you mean if?

    Yeah, true. It’s obvious that Turnbull caved and caved hard to the Abbottobods on a regular basis.

  15. I will later on say some of the stuff I find crazy coming from left wing ideologies say. However fortunately they are generally supporting the Greens. For example; they advocate stuff like opening the borders (especially in Europe and North America) and allowing in millions of immigrants which is utterly insane in my opinion.

  16. You’d think Newspoll would have Labor’s primary vote approaching 50%, but it won’t. That’s why the Tories are always a chance.

  17. Tristo,

    again quite right.

    It wouldn’t surprise me if Trumble shafting energy companies with threats of de facto nationalisation etc and then dumped business tax cuts in order to keep the loons sweet caused the pragmatic business types to let it be known that the Libs could get rid of him.

    Morrison will have to walk the same tightrope as Trumble did in trying to keep the loons in the tent, but perhaps won’t have to capitulate quite as much. Pragmatic business types will be watching, and the donation strike they’ve been on won’t break easily.

    If the loons deliver for business then pragmatic business types are perfectly happy to finance loons. But if they go all socialist like Trumble ended up, then they can pass the plate around at church. Business won’t have any use for them.

  18. @The Toorak Toff

    I would be surprised if Labor would score a primary vote higher than say the mid to high 40’s in the opinion polls in the future. However the Coalition’s primary vote will probably fall to 30% or even less.

    @ratsak

    I thought it was the whole NEG which started off the leadership coup against Turnbull. The NEG made some Liberals convinced that Turnbull was a globalist undermining Australian sovereignty by having Australia adhere to the Paris Agreement.

  19. Note that Craig Laundy resigned from cabinet, and is considering whether he’ll stand at the next election………Reid in Sydney is a marginal seat.

  20. Antonbruckner11 @ #1765 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    I think it’s very easy to under-estimate what a huge risk the ascendancy of Scrot is for the Libs ON TOP OF all their other problems. If the general population decides that they do not want a smiling pentacostal blokey bloke from the Shire as a Prime Minister because he has absolutely none of the poise and gravitas needed to be a Prime Minister, his elevation will be an utter debacle. He is NOT a bland choice. He is a very risky one.

    But..but…he eats a meat pie without a knife and fork.

  21. Simon² Katich® @ #1752 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    Many thanks again to all who regularly post here. BK’s efforts are priceless. KayJay, ratsak, grimace, briefly, antonbruckner, Phoenix Red, Victoria, zoomster, Catmomma, jenauthor, guytaur, lizzie, mari, Bushfire Bill, LU, ar, Player One, Douglas and Milko, shellbell, Simon² Katich®, Windhover, Observer, all others – terrifically informative, insightful, often humorous, always greatly appreciated.

    Great. No-one ever mentions me in these. Just as well I dont care. Well, normally I dont…. but heck – even guytaur gets a guernsey!

    There there. I think the author will not mind the addition. No extra cash for being mentioned in dispatches.

    Many years ago as a clerical type in the RAAF, on of the least popular activities was doing amendments to various publications.
    e.g. Manual of Saluting, Vol 3, Part 4, Chaper 7, page 48, line 6, delete shit insert shot.

    Visitors tonight. No politics. Toys include Yo Yo, Tantrix Discovery, Gyroscope, Rotating Fidgets, a new Fidget Cube and a 1000 piece jigsaw.

    I expect to view pictures of puppies, bunnies, babies and various bits and pieces from the Today show on my daughter’s phone. Oh, the excitement.

    Peace. ☮

  22. Julie Bishop was doing cases for CSR and is subsidiary, Australian Blue AsBestos, in relation to workers from Wittenoom – for a time a joint venture CSR had with Lang Hancock.

    Not James Hardie

  23. Puffytmd says:
    Sunday, August 26, 2018 at 7:09 pm
    Clem Attlee @ #1647 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    A lot of posters swallowing the MSM Kool Aid today re Bishop. She was no moderate, she was a filthy neo liberal just like the rest. Her work for James Hardie says all you need to know about that right wing bitch.

    That was my thought exactly. There is nothing about her that I admire and as far as a role model for women is concerned, she is the worst kind.

    She demonstrated to women and girls that if you adopt the tenets of patriarchy by playing the dutiful deputy/handmaiden you might get a comfortable life, lots of expensive clothing and ornaments, people waiting on you, some domestic personal power and some influence.

    You will not get real power, nor importance, nor any thanks in the end.

    If you be a good girl, you might get a pat on the head but not a piece of the real pie.
    —-
    Totally agree.

    Exactly what did Julie Bishop do as FA?

    1. Presided over the biggest cut to Foreign Aid in Australian history – while she may have haggled over it, she didn’t win.

    2. Plagiarised twice

    3. Begged the Indonesians not to execute Australians, but they did, anyway.

    4. Met the Iranians, in a headscarf, and didn’t shake a man’s hand while there, in deference to Islamic law

    5. Insulted the Chinese

    6. Prior to the demise of the Rudd (2) govt, ran a terrible argument against Australia having a seat at the UN Security table.

    7. When Australia achieved this, despite her protestations, revelled in being Australia’s rep there, along with her handbag du jour having a place at the table – against all security measures.

    8. Achieved nothing, in that role, but access to MH17 wreckage (along with other countries).

    On home territory, as a short-lived Treasurer, woefully inadequate.

    9. What else? A big fat nothing. Yet I heard on radio last night that she’s been the best FA Australia has ever had. Excuse me, I beg to differ.

    She also delights is saying that she’s not a feminist- rwnj speak for “I got there on my own merit.” But did she? I think her first husband gave her an intro in WA.

    But, she’s right, she’s not a feminist’s bootlace. One of the things I most dislike about her is what I dislike about a lot of woman who are, or think they are, attractive: and that is the ability to flatter a bloke’s ego – come on down, Kevin Rudd – and then, jack em off.

    So what else has she done in other portfolios?

    As Minister for Ageing – nothing

    As Minister for Education and Science – nothing

    As Minister for Women – nothing

    She was at her worst when another female, Julia Gillard, was Prime Minister; at her most catty. Gillard had achieved something she hadn’t. And she couldn’t stand that; not after her long, long, long apprenticeship.

    Julie Bishop was there, every moment, trying to tear down Julia Gillard. She even came up with a little cameo about wanting to be a mother, but the timing was never right. Not like Gillard who deliberately chose to be barren.

    She’s not someone I’d waste a moment’s thought over. Good riddance.

  24. So true Tristo. I think when the campaign gets going so will the Labor party’s attention to the Tory’s out dated and out of touch adherence to free market economics and the damage that this has done to worker’s lives. Here’s hoping anyway. Of course you are correct, in that there might just be four current liberals who would qualify as small l liberals, the rest are well to the right economically, which is the only measure that counts. Being moderate on issues of identify politics is of no consequence.

  25. I do give Julie Bishop kudos for succeeding in the Liberal Party, as far as she could get before the glass door was slammed in her face. Surviving and succeeding in a patriarchial organisation must mean a lot of compromises, being useful (fund raising, vote gathering, cleaning up messes) and never being a real threat to power, nor being seen to covet it.

    Julie Bishop would have needed talent to achieve this, as she did.

    It is not a career I admire. It reminds me of the sop to women to be content with the supposed power of the home and hearth.

    Like I said, she is no role model for young women.

  26. Tristo – Yep, Laundy would have to fight like an animal to retain his seat and if, by a miracle he does, he will find himself a pariah in a right-wing party. Boy, the Lib moderates in the marginal seats are going to go down like flies at the next election. I wonder how many other ones will jump ship?

  27. I do find this week amazing how close we came to getting a Trump style government in Australia, although it would for a quite brief time. Imagine if Peter Dutton had been charismatic it would have happened.

  28. jenauthor @ #1761 Sunday, August 26th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    I would be more interested in the ancient scripts supposedly in the Vatican archive. Mystical and historical stuff they wanted to hide (and not just church manuscripts).

    I have often wondered about the traditions spoken about but with only vague details of where or whence came those traditions.

    Goodnight all. ☮

  29. Laundy is barely seen here in Reid. Sam Crosby has been working very hard for a year now.

    I think Laundy probably came aboard as a lark – he’s great mates with Turnbull apparently. Now Mal’s going, Laundy likely thinks it’s last drinks.

  30. Many years ago as a clerical type in the RAAF, on of the least popular activities was doing amendments to various publications.
    e.g. Manual of Saluting, Vol 3, Part 4, Chaper 7, page 48, line 6, delete shit insert shot.

    I have just outlaid a small fortune on importing a Blu-Ray copy of Guns At Batasi.

    Dicky Attenborough at his best. John Meillion. Jack Hawkins in one of his last roles. Plus all the usual Pommy character actor suspects. With Mia Farrow in her first film role. All in glorious B&W Cinemascope.

    (They were making Goldfinger on the adjoining set at the time).

    And this…

    Watch this clip and weep, if you – literally – want to see saluting by the numbers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzKTOUkroU0

  31. @Antonbruckner11

    Before this week Laundy would have had a good chance of retaining Reid, however after this week MPs in seats with margins below 10% should be very nervous.

  32. Kezza

    Thank you for putting some reality into the sudden deification
    of Julie Bishop. She stuck to the unspoken rules for women in the Lib party. She was loyal to whomever was in power, reliable, non-threatening, put a Y chromosone in the Ministry photographs, and rounded up donations. I never underestimate the hard work, talent, intelligence and pure staying power of someone who rises to a position like FM and Deputy Leader of the LPA. It is a bit like the royal brides of yore, who wanted to live into old age.

  33. I hope I have not offended you.

    Absolutely not. my original post was in jest which I hoped was obvious. If it were serious then ‘there there’ is both a polite reply and a good jab in the ribs telling the easily offended to get a grip.

  34. Bushfire Bill,
    Of all the Turnbull/CPG post mortems I have read, yours at 7:41 pm was the most enjoyable by a country mile. Cheers, mate!

  35. @Bushfire Bill

    I don’t think he is the only ‘moderate’ Liberal party politician or supporter who would feel that way after this week. I argue Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity among that crowd which are in the ‘leafer’ suburbs helped the Liberals retain Reid and Banks in Sydney, while Liberal seats which were more working class fell left right and center in 2016. That also helped the Coalition win Chisholm in Melbourne off Labor in 2016 as well.

  36. Simon I was not mentioned in dispatches either. If you want to come to Melbourne I have soup and beer and we can console each other with big hugs and lots of cathartic tears. Be strong big fella.

  37. Some marginal seat polling (for what it is worth) done by Fairfax ….
    …. LNP leads Labor by 52 to 48 per cent in two-party terms in the crucial Sydney electorate of Reid, the Liberal Party’s primary vote has fallen since the 2016 election. There has also been a major drop in the Liberal primary vote in the Melbourne seat of Deakin, where the government now lags Labor by 47 to 53 per cent.

    The results are a danger sign for Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, who holds Deakin by a relatively healthy 6.3 per cent and has antagonised colleagues with his role in last week’s failed push to install Mr Dutton as leader.

    Coalition primary vote has held up in the Brisbane seat of Dickson, held by Mr Dutton. In that electorate, the government leads Labor 53 to 47 per cent on two-party preferred terms.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/marginal-seat-polling-shows-voters-warm-to-new-pm-but-turn-on-coalition-20180826-p4zzvb.html

  38. My arsehat of a local member (Deakin) and Dutton supporter Michael Sukkar still holding a lead according to the polling. Really hope he loses his seat at the coming election.

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