Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails

Newspoll finds the prime ministership would have been a handy thing for Peter Dutton to have in his tight race for Dickson. Also featured: a closer look at how that failed to come to pass.

The Australian has a large-sample Newspoll for Peter Dutton’s election of Dickson, conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1846, partly in expectation that things would have played out a little differently. On a standard voting intention question, the poll shows Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48 (a 3.6% swing from 2016), from primary votes of LNP 37% (down from 44.6%), Labor 37% (up from 34.9%), Greens 9% (down from 9.9%) and One Nation 10%. But when asked about voting intention if Dutton were Prime Minister, this became 50-50, and did so because of a 5% primary vote transfer from One Nation to the LNP (Labor gained one point, and the Greens were unchanged). The Australian’s report also reveals Dutton did better on the first night of polling than the second, and surmises this was the effect of the Section 44 story taking hold. However, the changes quoted are not statistically significant, and appeared to be bigger for the Turnbull-as-PM question than for Dutton.

Now a guide to who did what in the party room leadership votes on Tuesday and yesterday, drawing on four sources – starting with a table laying it all out, followed by the gory details. Cabinet ministers are in bold and underlined, outer ministry members are in bold, assistant ministers are in italics. An asterisk denotes those who, while identified as Turnbull backers, are among those The Australian thinks might have been the sole abstainer in round one (more on that shortly). Arthur Sinodinos’s two asterisks denote the fact that he was absent in the first round, though I presume he would have voted for Turnbull if present.

The first of the three sources is a list published in The Australian on Wednesday identifying how each member was believed to have voted in the Turnbull-versus-Dutton round the previous day. If I understand correctly, The Australian believed it had a handle on every vote, with one complication: one member out of a list of fifteen suspects abstained rather than voting for Turnbull. Second is a list of the forty-three signatories to the petition calling for a party room meeting has been doing the rounds on social media.

Thirdly, the Fairfax papers have published lists of how members were believed to have voted in Morrison-versus-Dutton. This has more holes than The Australian’s list, with seven listed as “unknown”. The fourth source, from The West Australian, lists how WA Liberal MPs voted, which plugs three of Fairfax’s gaps. It also disagrees with Fairfax in placing Slade Brockman in the Dutton rather than Morrison camp – I’m going with The West here. That leaves four still down as unknown, and assuming all the foregoing is correct, three of them must have voted for Morrison and one for Dutton.

Nine members who appear to have voted for Turnbull in the first round were signatories to the petition: Mathias Cormann, Michaelia Cash, Ian Goodenough, Slade Brockman, Andrew Laming and John McVeigh, who moved to the Dutton camp; Mitch Fifield, who voted for Morrison; and Warren Entsch and Jane Hume, who are down as unknowns. The forty-three signatories included everyone who voted for Dutton in either vote, with two exceptions: Christian Porter and Bert Van Manen, the latter presumably relating to his position as Whip. Porter is reported as having switched from Turnbull to Dutton; Van Manen is not disclosing who he voted for, but The Australian and Fairfax both identify him as being in the Dutton camp. Scott Buchholz voted for Dutton against Turnbull and signed the petition, but is down as unknown for Morrison versus Dutton.

Significant home state effects were evident in that Morrison won 14-6 among the New South Wales contingent, while Dutton won 12-4 (plus two unknowns) among Queenslanders. However, Julie Bishop apparently struck out entirely among her WA peers in the first round, her eleven votes having been sourced elsewhere (except her own). I’m not aware of any record of who the eleven were. Western Australia otherwise distinguished itself in having a substantial bloc switch from Turnbull to Dutton, most conspicuously Matthias Cormann and Michaelia Cash. They were apparently joined by Christian Porter, who kept a lower profile about it, along with Slade Brockman and Ian Goodenough. However, Ben Morton went the other way, supporting Dutton in the first vote and Morrison in the second. All told, the state split 11-5 for Turnbull over Dutton, then 9-7 for Dutton over Morrison. The South Australians broke 6-2 to Morrison.

Of seventeen lower house members with margins of 6% or less, nine voted for Morrison and six for Dutton, with a further two unknown. Four of Dutton’s six were from Queensland; the only Queensland marginal seat holder not in the Dutton column is Warren Entsch, down as unknown.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,932 comments on “Newspoll Dickson poll and Liberal party room vote entrails”

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  1. sorry if this has already been mentioned but I missed a lot of posts yesterday ( I was all over the shop)

    If Trumble goes straight away or near too straight away will the good guys have the numbers to refer Potato and those that they suspect don’t meet the dual citizenship requirements to the High Court

  2. Questions without notice.
    #1 Why do they say prayers in parliament and council meetings?
    #2 Why do the media bang on about the religion of the latest prime minister being Pentecostal,catholic,Anglican,or Muslim?
    #3 Why if Australia is a secular state,does religion seems to underscore what many of these politicians think say and do?

  3. I’m no great fan of Annabelle Crabb, but I reckon she’s written the most insightful piece on the events of yesterday. (It’s on the ABC website.)

    As she says, the anti-Turnbull push wasn’t about policy or even personality. It was about the “vibe.”

    I’d take it even a bit further: the conservatives in parliament and the Lib Party branches are itching for a fight with the left side of politics. They’ve seen Trump pop up and are mad keen for something like that here.

    I don’t think there’s much chance that Morrison can satisfy this craving. But it’s also hard to see how another attempt to install Dutton or Abbott or whoever can succeed before the election, especially as the conservatives clearly don’t have the numbers.

    It’s a pressure cooker waiting to explode.

    Probably the best thing for all concerned is for them to lose office and then install Abbott as leader again to run the line they want. He can then have one more crack at it in 2022 or whenever – and, bar another R-G-R extravaganza – lose convincingly.

    And then, having gotten that out of their system, the Libs can move on.

  4. The trademark of the Abbott/Turnbull government was subterfuge. Morrison will do everything he can to continue this method of government. Allowing his MPs and Senators to be referred will undermine his government, making it the shortest running government ever.
    There exists many ominous clouds, with the sitting period in two weeks surely to begin with a call to have the issue of S44 examined to include both sides of Parliament.
    The first two weeks of Parliament will test Morrison’s integrity and honesty.
    The GG will have a part to play before long.

  5. Abbott’s preselection is not assured. Unless the govt falls apart quickly and the Libs move to straight re-endorsement of sitting members.

  6. Golly. I think they’ll do their utmost to keep it together until the next election. The conservatives have been publicly humiliated. The Sukkars and Seseljas and Taylors have too much to lose if they try it on again: their careers could be finished. Even Dutton now has to focus on his own seat: more destabilisation will make impossible his already difficult task.

  7. Graeme

    #3 The religious supposedly follow their particular moral code, therefore knowing what it is should give us a clue as to how each will act. This is not a reliable guide, however. 😉

  8. Did anyone else see Dan Tehan’s robotic interview last night? No personality, no freedom of thought, nothing to give us confidence in his ability to think outside his learned responses.

    This man is not ministerial material unless you have things to hide.

  9. According to Michael Koziol, the coup plotters’ main protagonists, Michael Sukkar, Angus Taylor, Andrew Hastie, Tony Pasin and Zed Seselja, took their eye off the ball on Thursday night and Christopher Pyne and Scott Morrison didn’t. Morrison and Pyne kept working the phones and strategising with Turnbull. That’s what made the difference in the end.

    Pride goeth before a fall and the Conservative Christian Nativist Warriors of the Extreme Right succumbed to hubris. They thought they had all bases covered. You’d think a guy with experience of fighting the wisps of smoke, otherwise known as the enemy, in Afghanistan, would have known to never stop fighting until you saw the whites of the enemy’s eyes and they had surrendered into your custody. But no. It seems that when he’s on his own and not surrounded by a platoon of crack SAS troops, Andrew Hastie is a bit of a dud.

    And an ex-Queensland copper should have known that you have to get your hands dirty but just not be seen by the public doing it.

    Anyway, good on the Moderate forces of the Liberal Party for fighting back against the Paleo Populist Conservatives. Australia needed that battle to be fought and won.

    Now to finish the job by electing a government true to the spirit of the real Australia. The spirit of the Fair Go For All. A Labor government.

  10. People have to keep hammering the Libs as to why they dumped a PM. There have been no policy changes…….!
    It’s been nothing but an exercise of revenge by a small part of the party against it’s leader.

  11. Given that Malcolm made his biggest mistake on Day One, through failing to stand up to the RWNJs, what should Morrison do with his Cabinet?

    I would suggest, for starters, that the nature of Fierravanti-Wells departure and her stated reasons for it means that putting her in the Ministry – even in a very junior capacity – sends the message that the ‘reaching out for the base’ idiocy is still trumping ‘governing for all of you.’

    It’s an ideal opportunity to get rid of the Minister for Rhyming Slang, who – though I heard him lauded by some media types as an intellectual powerhouse – has no significant achievements to his name despite holding major Ministries.

  12. nath says:
    Friday, August 24, 2018 at 9:06 pm
    Boomy1, you are not funny. Go get your basic card and buy some beer. Oh no you cant!!


    Don’t ever attempt stand up comedy, stick to what you know. What was that, again?

  13. nath says:
    Friday, August 24, 2018 at 9:56 pm
    zoomster says:
    Friday, August 24, 2018 at 9:19 pm

    Keating went on holiday with John Laws….
    there you go i did some research. It was zoomster who said it. go after him.


    As I said earlier, and you strongly denied, you are new around here, aren’t you?

  14. boomy1 says:
    Friday, August 24, 2018 at 10:33 pm
    What I hate most about the welfare card is that there is an intention to slowly make it universal. Its all about punishing the undeserving.

    This is what the Morrison’s of this world do, They love it and we are shit and Cash goes Boonta she’s so aroused by making the poor, poorer.


    That’s a new one for me. I looked it up and found this:

    Urban Dictionary: Boonta
    with the oo pronounced like “book” South Australian term to describe someone going crazy, getting excited, angry etc.

    It is also in the Macquarie Dictionary:

  15. meher baba @ #10 Saturday, August 25th, 2018 – 7:18 am

    Golly. I think they’ll do their utmost to keep it together until the next election. The conservatives have been publicly humiliated. The Sukkars and Seseljas and Taylors have too much to lose if they try it on again: their careers could be finished. Even Dutton now has to focus on his own seat: more destabilisation will make impossible his already difficult task.

    Well the conservative media certainly haven’t laid down their cudgels. They were hoeing into Scott Morrison and devising tests for him last night!

  16. @poroti….I think the previous knifing was Turnbull V Abbott and at least Turnbull did make some changes….throwing away knights and dames for Aussies was one.
    Loathe him or love him at least Turnbull will have the removal of the disgraceful Abbott as PM as an achievment and I for one am thankful he did it.

  17. Peter Hartcher reckons this is only the beginning of the Civil War inside the Liberal Party:

    And, although Abbott’s personal quest for vengeance has now been satisfied, Friday’s factional clash over the leadership has re-energised the internecine war inside the Liberal Party. The defeat of the conservatives mean that there are new vendettas afoot, and the new Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, will feel their effects before long. Madness indeed.

  18. Trump’s financial gatekeeper was just granted legal immunity in Cohen probe

    Allen Weisselberg, the chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, was recently granted legal immunity in exchange for his testimony in front of a grand jury as part of the probe of former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen.

    The Wall Street Journal reports that Weisselberg “was granted immunity by federal prosecutors for providing information about Michael Cohen in the criminal investigation into hush-money payments for two women during the 2016 presidential campaign.”

  19. Trump biographer predicts the president will ‘lash out’ even more as his circle of loyalists dwindles

    The granting of immunity to Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg represents a “potentially momentous turn of events” for President Donald Trump, Tim O’Brien reported Friday.

    Now O’Brien, the executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion, says Weisselberg’s cooperation could potentially go “into the heart of the Trump Organization and the president’s business and financial dealings.”

    O’Brien noted that “Trump has had few loyalists in his operation historically, and Weisselberg is certainly one of the most longstanding members of that tiny club.”

    “His cooperation with investigators will resonate personally for the president, and is likely to force an already combative man to lash out in ever more forceful ways,” O’Brien predicted.

  20. Michael Avenatti: The World Is Crumbling Around Trump And His Criminal Enterprise

    Allen Weisselberg has the info that could send the Trump family to prison

    This is bigger than Trump himself. The Trump Organization board is the president and his children. If the Trump Organization gets indicted, it could mean state-level felony charges for President Trump, his daughter Ivanka, and sons Donald Jr., and Eric. Allen Weisselberg, the CFO, has all of the financial information on the organization.

  21. Meanwhile, Cathy McGowan has told the media that she expects Scott Morrison to be on the phone to her very shortly. I’m still trying to work out why he’d bother.

  22. zoomster:

    Yes I am waiting to see who gets in Morrison’s ministry. Does he reward the plotters and the bullies, thus sending a message to everyone else that he is beholden to him? Surely Cormann will return as will Dutton. But what about Abbott?

    It’s also a great opportunity to get rid of excess baggage like Hunt and Ciobo.

  23. Sonar yep getting rid of Abbott was a real positive of Turnbull, from then on though he adopted the policy platform of Dutton / Abetz and other rw nutters. He was PM in name only, could have been so much more.

    If it was Labor who went through this circus the media would rip them apart, now the headlines in the Herald Sun Daily Telegraph are all happy families. ……Scomo- footy ,faith and a fair go!

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, August 25, 2018 at 7:51 am
    Peter Hartcher reckons this is only the beginning of the Civil War inside the Liberal Party:

    And, although Abbott’s personal quest for vengeance has now been satisfied, Friday’s factional clash over the leadership has re-energised the internecine war inside the Liberal Party. The defeat of the conservatives mean that there are new vendettas afoot, and the new Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, will feel their effects before long. Madness indeed.


    Thanks C@t, excellent article. His best for some time.

  25. PvO on the Abbottobods blowing up government.

    The Dutton push was all about a small band of hard-Right members pitching their policy ideas at a similarly small number of lay party members — the so-called “base”, which is an ever shrinking cohort of Australians who choose to join a major political party.

    The days of the mass party model are long over. The base is unrepresentative of mainstream Australia, and designing policies to appeal to it (or appease it) is a sure way to lose the political centre. Commentators who talk only to micro audiences in their tiny echo chambers like budgies talking to a mirror seem not to comprehend this. More surprisingly, so many politicians also mis­understand the breadth of the electorate.

    Turnbull now will be able to point out forever that his final four Newspolls had him trailing Labor in the two-party vote by just 51-49 per cent. He was overwhelmingly the preferred prime minister to Bill Shorten. Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating was better than Shorten’s. All these facts stand in stark contrast to how Abbott was travelling when Turnbull moved against him — although that decision was not the right thing to do either.

  26. PvO also suggests that Laundy might pull the pin as well, not only by not helping the Libs fundraise (according to him he’s one of their best fundraisers), but not even contesting his marginal seat!

  27. Meher Baba: “I’m no great fan of Annabelle Crabb, but I reckon she’s written the most insightful piece on the events of yesterday”

    Err.. no thanks. I think I’ll wait for the musical version.

  28. Sonar yep getting rid of Abbott was a real positive of Turnbull, from then on though he adopted the policy platform of Dutton / Abetz and other rw nutters. He was PM in name only, could have been so much more.

    According to PvO it was Cormann and Dutton who were the go-betweens for Turnbull and the Abbottobods, giving MT protection from them while extracting policy compromises and backdowns at the same time.

    I wonder how long his leadership would’ve lasted had Turnbull had ridden roughshod over, or ignored them? Probably not as long as 3 years. Still, I think he showed weak leadership in capitulating to them on issues and policies that were clearly in the national interest, ie reducing emissions, SSM and Murray-Darling Basin.

  29. There was talk here last night in how Bishop was hard done by, yet as William says,

    I’m not aware of any record of voting in the first round of yesterday’s leadership ballot, which is to say, the identity of the eleven people who voted for Julie Bishop. According to The West Australian, “Ms Bishop’s camp believes all of her votes came from interstate MPs and Senators, and none of her 16 WA Liberal colleagues backed her bid for the leadership“.

    So of the people who should know her better then anyone, not one thought she was the best option to lead the Party. 🙂

  30. Several commentators have suggested that it is time that Liberals formalised the left/right divisions inside the Party, to allow for negotiations to reach a consensus which can then become accepted policy, as Labor does.

    I’m not sure that this is possible with Abbott’s destructive presence.

  31. @lizzie……Abbott needs to be booted by the Libs if they are going to change. He is the most divisive, toxic,shallow,hate driven person there is and the country needs to be rid of him.

  32. @WorldOfMarkyD
    fresh Roy Morgan poll .. preferred Prime Minister

    Shorten 70% Morrison 30%
    Shorten 63.5% Morrison 36.5%
    Shorten 53% Morrison 47%
    Shorten 42.5% Morrison 57.5%
    65yo & over
    Shorten 39% Morrison 61%

    #LibSpill #LibSpill3 #AusPol
    11:00 PM – 24 Aug 2018

  33. As i said confessions he was pm in name only, he may have lasted 3 years but he was not making decisions he was doing what he was told.

    Sonar puts it very well he made a deal with the devil and yesterday was his reckoning.

    I am intrigued what the next newspoll will show surely the Australian voters will see through this…..maybe not maybe they fall for populism. …footy, faith and a fair crack

  34. I don’t remember seeing these polls, but I agree with the comment about how women leaders are perceived inside political parties.

    Bishop was, by a considerable margin, the most popular candidate. A Roy Morgan poll held the day before the ballot found she had a 28-point lead over Bill Shorten and the best chance of winning the next election (a near impossible task given the unreasoned dysfunction of this week). A News Corp poll found she was many long yards ahead of her colleagues as preferred leader, with a solid 40 per cent polled. You’d be excused for thinking this might be a lay-down misere. The man who won the ballot, Scott Morrison, had only 5 per cent.

    Now one of the basic truths has been underlined: the electorate happily supports women in leadership positions, but political parties are reluctant to. ANU political lecturer Jill Sheppard said recently: “Conservative voters and parliamentary members tend to look at men as natural leaders in a way they don’t look at women. This is probably also true of most parts of the ALP and still a part of parties like the Greens,” she said. “It’s something embedded in Australian society … It could take another 20 years before the idea of women in politics becomes mainstream.”

  35. Morning all

    Looks like John McCain is closer to the end.
    Meanwhile the Trump Imbroglio continues at a pace.

    You know,
    has absolutely no idea how f—ked they are. They know trouble is coming; they just have no idea how hard the fist of justice is going to come down on their heads. Legal/IC shock & awe. Get ready. 🙂

    And I did read Annabel Crabb’s latest and she sums it up perfectly.

    Peter Hartcher’s latest is also spot on.

    The Sky News crowd after dark are so happy to see the back of Turnbull. But will Scomo be palatable for Abbott and his travellers?
    From where I sit the answer would be no.

  36. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher says that although Abbott dished out his serve of vengeance it will not end the internecine madness in the Liberal party.
    Michael Koziol goes inside the disastrous attempt to install Peter Dutton as prime minister
    Have a look at this contribution from Karen Middleton on the dirty tricks within the Liberal party.
    Paul Daley tells us that when Turnbull toppled Abbott he bargained with the jackals of the right, and they stayed at his door.
    David Crowe says Dutton reached for the trophy nut got the funeral urn instead. He concludes that the Liberals can only prosper if the arch-conservatives give up the delusion that they are the future of the party.
    Here’s Paul Bongiorno’s take on the fall of Malcolm Turnbull.
    It was an utterly pointless political assassination says Laura Tingle.

    Doug Dingwall declares that Zed Seselja is the national public face of the failed Dutton campaign.
    Phil Coorey says Morrison needs to straighten this rabble out.
    Andrew Clark wonders indeed it this is possible.
    Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed he will resign from Parliament, during a final appearance as Prime Minister in which he excoriated the “insurgents” and “wreckers” within the Liberal Party.
    David Marr writes that electing Dutton would have threatened a glorious defeat for the government.
    Katharine Murphy looks at what sort of ministerial line-up Morrison might come up with.
    And she says Dutton was a close shave for Australia but voters won’t forget this bruising week.
    Paula Matthewson writes that the first shots have been fired in a new battle before the dust even settles on the Liberal leadership crisis.
    David Crowe reckons the Liberals should have a good look at the arrangements that Labor put in to avoid leadership decapitations.
    Mike Seccombe writes that throughout all the thrills and spills of federal politics this week, the Coalition’s wilful torching of planned action on climate change escaped scrutiny.
    Crispin Hull declares that Turnbull’s political strategy was wrong from almost day one. He makes some very good points that Morrison should take note of.
    In an extensive, excellent examination of Coalition politics Jack Waterford explores the abyss that is staring back at the Liberal party.
    Jacqui Maley reckons we only had the real Malcolm for a few days – right at the very end.
    Conservative media commentators who aggressively backed Peter Dutton in the Liberal leadership challenge have put Scott Morrison on notice, indicating that there will be no honeymoon period for the incoming prime minister.
    Peter Fitzsimons leads with “He came. He saw. He conked out.”
    Michelle Grattan begins her piece with “When they turn nasty, politicians can be an extraordinarily ugly lot. This week, the Liberals looked hideous – feral, self-indulgent, thuggish and contemptuous of an electorate that would like to be able to have MPs respect its choice of the country’s prime minister.”
    Dutton is “not incapable” of sitting as a member of parliament, according legal advice from the solicitor general, but there is still “some risk” the high court might find he has a conflict of interest.
    Tony Wright describes Morrison as a fractured party’s desperate choice for a healing,
    The SMH editorial says that the Liberal party has chosen the sensible centre right but that <orison will have his work gut out to keep the lid on.
    Ebony Bennett says that despite recent events we cannot afford to give up on politics.
    Stephanie Dorwick writes that building policies based on racial contempt and divisiveness has become central to the Coalition parties and their idea of Australia and this has led to the rising up of leaders with no vision. We must rise up and resist them she urges.
    Julia Baird laments the situation of women in the Liberal party using Julie Bishop to make her case.
    Adele Ferguson writes that what came out in the latest round of the royal commission should cause a lot of soul searching for banks, trustees, the regulator and the newly-minted Morrison government.
    Devastating open findings from the banking royal commission include thousands of breaches of the law from super funds operated by the big four banks, with NAB and Commonwealth Bank singled out.
    Elizabeth Knight reports that while it was all kicking off in Canberra there was another leadership spill going on at AGL.
    No matter how much we deny it, Australia can be a racist nation, but there are several factors causing this, writes Peter Wicks.,11820
    As questions swirl around the Great Barrier Reef Foundation grant, another non-profit group pledging citizens’ support for the reef is revealed to have links to business and tourism bodies.
    Mueller is circling Trump as federal prosecutors have granted immunity to the Trump Organisation's chief financial officer.
    How will Americans register the double-blow meted out to Donald Trump on Tuesday this week, 21 August 2018, or how much will they know about it?,11822
    Hamish McDonald outlines all of Trump’s troubles.

    Cartoon Corner

    Two more shockers from David Rowe.

    Mark David gets right to the centre of the problems Australia gas had for 10 years.

    Pat Campbell with some stock market charts.

    And he announces the ballot results.

    From our neighbours over the ditch.

    Peter Broelman wonders how long Morrison will last.

    Zanetti reckons the writing was on the wall for Turnbull.

    Fiona Katauskas has modelled the Australian leadership cycle.

    David Pope sees the end of the mutiny.
    Jon Kudelka doesn’t think it will be much of a honeymoon!
    Quite a few more good ones in here.

  37. The counterpoint to all this is the apparent ‘campaign’ by the media at large and individuals to starve the ALP/Shorten of any attention/relevance.
    It is as though Her Majesty’s opposition doesn’t exist and we must somehow find a way to make government work with the Liberal party because there is no other option.

    Contrast this with the commentary during the Rudd/Gillard war which was all about Tony and the glorious government in waiting…..
    The hard sell of Scrote and Joshie has already begun.
    Expect to hear alot of Scomo Scomo Scomo Ooi Ooi Ooi! from most media outlets in the coming months.

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