Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. So Keating was right and Ratsak. Turnbull lacks political judgment. He’s going down, one way or another.

  4. Good evening all,

    In simple terms Turnbull has dumped Australia’s comitement to the Paris Agreement so he has no need to provide any realistic gateway to increasing emmisions targets.

    This ” NEG 7.0 ” is not a energy / emmisions policy. It is simply a list of individual dot point measures that Turnbull hopes may have some effect on electricity prices however small.

    What I find amazing about all this is if Cabinet discussed the recently deceased NEG and supposedly agreed to it before Turnbull and Frydenberg presented it to the combined party room on Tuesday why the uproar now from certain unnamed ministers ?

    Would Turnbull be so stupid to take a policy to the party room for approval that had split cabinet ? If so, what the f**k did he think would happen ?

    Cheers.

  5. Conversation reportedly overheard in Point Piper this evening.

    Man: Lucy!
    I can’t find it.

    Woman: Find what?

    Man: You know, my spine!

    Woman: Don’t be so silly.
    You never had one, that’s why you’ve got me!

  6. C@tmomma
    I can’t see why Labor can’t legislate new law that overrides whatever Turnbull tries to stave off the backbench revolt. Either way, I reckon Turnbull is monumentarily gorn. He’s again caving = a weak or no leader.= gorn.

  7. Harry, Malcolm coulda died on his feet and left with some respect. Now he’s gonna get capped on his knees, begging for his life, and left in a dumpster.

  9. Trump paved the way of pulling out of the Paris agreement, Turnbull has just followed his lead by abandoning the emissions reduction target his own govt signed up to. Proving yet again that he has absolutely no principles worth defending, and absolutely zero leadership.

    So disappointing for our country and for the global agreement. Election now so we turf the squabbling children and put the adults back in charge!

  10. Harry “Snapper” Organs @ #2456 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 7:39 pm

    C@tmomma
    I can’t see why Labor can’t legislate new law that overrides whatever Turnbull tries to stave off the backbench revolt. Either way, I reckon Turnbull is monumentarily gorn. He’s again caving = a weak or no leader.= gorn.

    Simples. The Senate. It’s the poison pill that Abbott wants included. Emissions targets can’t be raised, except by legislation. Which has to pass both Houses. And just look at the Senate, a lot of whom will still be there after the next election to frustrate Labor’s agenda.

  14. ANTONBRUKNER11 (great moniker btw)
    That’s what I think. Pathetic, really. I wonder what Lucy has got to deal with as he melts down in a diminishing puddle of self abasement.

  16. ANTONBRUCKNER11

    I too thought he might take the ‘go down fighting for what is right’ path , losing with dignity. Of course that was based on the assumption that he was not at heart a RWNJ. Maybe that was a mistake.

  17. Turnbull is the political version of a slinky toy.

    LOL. Do you mean the flip flop action of the one that actually made it down the full flight of stairs or all the others that crashed and burned.

  18. poroti

    I. Zoomster a
    ‘few
    ‘ others have been saying for a while. When Turnbull signed the pact with Joyce on climate he sold his soul out. Thats when the jellyfish spineless memes started.

  20. And just look at the Senate, a lot of whom will still be there after the next election to frustrate Labor’s agenda.

    Actually the Senate could look very different post the next election, unless Turnbull gives Labor the ultimate eff you and calls another DD.

  23. Mr Mearns wrote a poem about Lucien……………………..well almost.
    .
    “The Little PM Who Wasn’t There”

    As I was going up the stair
    I met a PM who wasn’t there!
    He wasn’t there again today,
    Oh how I wish he’d go away!”

    When I came home last night at three,
    The PM was waiting there for me
    But when I looked around the hall,
    I couldn’t see him there at all!
    Go away, go away, don’t you come back any more!
    Go away, go away, and please don’t slam the door…

    Last night I saw upon the stair,
    A little PM who wasn’t there,
    He wasn’t there again today
    Oh, how I wish he’d go away…

  24. poroti @ #2470 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 5:48 pm

    ANTONBRUCKNER11

    I too thought he might take the ‘go down fighting for what is right’ path , losing with dignity. Of course that was based on the assumption that he was not at heart a RWNJ. Maybe that was a mistake.

    I don’t think he’s a RWNJ. I think he’s an incredibly poor leader who has exceptionally poor judgement and therefore cannot make the hard decisions.

  25. 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down

    That might be so, but if asked should the government prioritise the price of energy above all other concerns such as the environmental health of future generations like your kids and grandkids, I feel sure it would be reversed.

  26. guytaur

    I pegged Lucien much earlier. Tony gave him the ‘NBN’ as a test/humiliation, tasking him to do something he knew was wrong. Truffles showed no hesitation in screwing the nation in order to keep his chances for PMship alive.

  27. Sorry, gotta go for now, bludgers. Gotta say that for the most part you get more intelligent discussion of politics on here than just about anywhere else.

  29. Of the current Senate crossbench, only a 3 Greens, 2 Centre Alliance and Hanson survive the Senate changeover without facing the voters. The rest face voters.

  30. Poroti. Malcolm has no ideology. Just survival. Stay at the table and keep trying to make a deal. He is 100 per cent transactional. He doesn’t realise that he is framing the rest of his life right now (in a bad way). And where is Lucy? She should be slapping him around and telling him the jig is up. But she’s a stage mother who won’t let her boy leave the stage. They’re as bad as each other.

  31. The LNP will go to the election with a 1950s energy and climate policy. They really are reactionaries with no grasp at all of the issues facing us in this century. Incredible. We should expect to see their numbers crash.

  37. Tom the first and best says:
    Friday, August 17, 2018 at 7:55 pm
    Of the current Senate crossbench, only a 3 Greens, 2 Centre Alliance and Hanson survive the Senate changeover without facing the voters. The rest face voters.

    Tom, which CA Senators have 6 year terms?

  38. I think its interesting who has not said anything. e.g. Morrison. Trying to be the dark horse coming up the inside?

    He has not promised anything so would get the leadership with a clean slate. Same with some others.

  39. Tom the first and best @ #2482 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 5:55 pm

    Of the current Senate crossbench, only a 3 Greens, 2 Centre Alliance and Hanson survive the Senate changeover without facing the voters. The rest face voters.

    Yes indeed. I’m looking forward to seeing the back of the remaining rabble. As William observed the other day, no doubt Fraser Anning’s appalling first speech was designed to garner as much re-election media attention as he could get. He knows he’s basically toast.

  40. 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down…

    That’s after you’ve driven the price up by …
    Privatising polls & wires
    Privatised power generation
    Exported natural gas at world parity price to the detriment of power consumers & to the benefit of multinational energy firms
    Plus any number of other stupid corrupt decisions

  44. For anyone interested, rage on the ABC are having a mini Aretha Franklin tribute tonight from 12:15am (Saturday morning) until 1am; repeated Sunday night ABC from 1:05am (Monday morning) through until about 1:50am.

  45. I will be interested to hear Turnbull trying to explain how dumping emissions targets and most of his less than a week old NEG will guarentee certainty.

    I am sure he will try and it will be fascinating watching his attempts. It will also be interesting to see how industry groups and other stakeholders who have applauded Turnbull for providing said certainty now react.

    Cheers.

  47. Mr Newbie @ #2497 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 6:04 pm

    For anyone interested, rage on the ABC are having a mini Aretha Franklin tribute tonight from 12:15am (Saturday morning) until 1am; repeated Sunday night ABC from 1:05am (Monday morning) through until about 12:50am.

    Even TripleJ played Chain of Fools this morning. After which the presenters had to explain to listeners what they were hearing and why. 😆

  48. JM,

    That was always a given !

    Sometimes worth stating the obvious, just to see the look on Mal’s face. 🙂

    ————————

    Bill having endless ‘questions to answer’ has been distracting from and masking the government’s own woes, which might at first seem a bad thing for Bill.

    But it has probably actually helped Bill by making the looming and long-delayed eruption and rending of the government even more dramatic and ‘unexpected’.

    So, thanks to the MSM for your help there. 🙂

    ————————

    From 3 days back:

    Rational Leftist @ #1589 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:09 pm

    Vote Green if you want. If they’re who you genuinely believe best represent your views, that’s your prerogative. The only thing I ask is you don’t give your preferences to the Coalition.

    I know it’s not a sexy issue to talk about but the poor are being increasingly marginalised in this country. And, while I am not going to portray Labor governments in the past as innocent here, things have gone really badly into overdrive in the last few years, as economic policies have gone from misguided to just nasty and vindictive. Virtue-signal all you want but a lot of people in these dire circumstances cannot afford another three years of Scott Morrison’s war on the poor.

    On this issue, we can debate long-term countermeasures to this (including your first-year uni buzzwords about “neoliberalism” and “socialism”) in due time but, right now, this needs to stop. It is getting desperate.

    Thank you.

  49. doyley, Turnbull has been totally humiliated in less than three days by his own troops. He is a ridiculous figure, a parody PM.

    He will be lucky to survive another month.

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