Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 49 of 54
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  3. The Prime Minister’s level of concern can be measured by his response. Nine News has been told Mr Turnbull has now taken personal responsibility for delivering lower power prices and is pledging heavy handed intervention in the market.

    Remind me which party it is whose go to put down for any Labor government intervention in the market, no matter how small and inoffensive, is that ‘this is Command and Control economy stuff!’

    Yes, the Coalition.

  4. michelle grattan tweets

    I think this is what they call desperation politics – people threaten to cross the floor – don’t give them a floor to cross.

  5. Julie Bishop
    ‏Verified account @JulieBishopMP
    12 Dec 2015

    Still pushing for ambitious global agreement chairing Umbrella Group – still a way to go #cop21

  6. Turnbull’s greatest legacy will to have deposed Abbott and kept him out of office for some years now. Let’s thank him for that. Abbott, Turnbull, Shorten. Am i alone in thinking that Albo is the only sane alternative to this lot?

  7. The PMO spraying far and wide, looking for someone to blame..

    #UPDATE: It’s also understood the competition watchdog could be given powers to break up energy companies.

  8. We might now see some changes in the betting markets – winner of next election, who will lead Liberals to the election.

  10. C@tmomma @ #2403 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 6:44 pm

    The Prime Minister’s level of concern can be measured by his response. Nine News has been told Mr Turnbull has now taken personal responsibility for delivering lower power prices and is pledging heavy handed intervention in the market.

    Remind me which party it is whose go to put down for any Labor government intervention in the market, no matter how small and inoffensive, is that ‘this is Command and Control economy stuff!’

    Yes, the Coalition.

    Yep, it’s the let-the-market-it-knows-best-sort-it-out party. Wooohooo.

    One thing they are sorting out is the Labor campaign ads.

  15. The irony is simply delicious. Malcolm has taken personal responsibility for lowering power prices, eh?

    Well I can see Labor doing to Malcolm, and Tony, because they must put a stake through the heart of Tony Abbott’s ambitions which are stirring from the political grave as well, exactly what Tony Abbott did to the Labor Party wrt the ‘Carbon Tax’.

    Come into parliament Question Time with a sheaf of power bills from constituents and ask Malcolm, ‘The Prime Minister stated that it was his personal responsibility to bring power prices down. Now, I have here a power bill from Mrs Betty Bloggs of the electorate of Robertson, in fact I have two. One from before the PM made the promise to bring down her power bill and another from after he made that promise. May I say that Mrs Bloggs is not happy. Her power bill has gone up, not down! Prime Minister, what do you have to say to Mrs Bloggs!?!’

    Just do it over and over and over and over again. 🙂

  17. nath @ #2401 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 6:47 pm

    Turnbull’s greatest legacy will to have deposed Abbott and kept him out of office for some years now. Let’s thank him for that. Abbott, Turnbull, Shorten. Am i alone in thinking that Albo is the only sane alternative to this lot?

    Yes. You don’t know Albo, obviously.

    He’s a good bloke.

    He’s not leadership material.

  18. Are consultants making so much money from the Federal Government that they’re now treating departments as cash cows and openly dubbing it “The Dairy”?

    Key points:
    Federal Labor says consultants use the nickname because they “milk

    the Commonwealth

    for all it’s worth”
    Four companies have secured more than $1.7 billion in work in recent years
    Consultancy firms defend their work but support calls for more transparency

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/consultancy-bosses-quizzed-on-government-nickname-the-dairy/10132264?pfmredir=sm&section=politics

    Alerted to this from a Michael West tweet.

  19. The controversial target at the heart of the policy, a 26 per cent cut to emissions by 2030, will be set by ministerial regulation rather than being cemented in legislation to avoid forcing Liberals and Nationals MPs to vote for a climate change target they cannot support.

    I’ve just tuned into all this drama so I may have the wrong end of the stick on this. But won’t that pretty much suit Labor? Now when they get into power they can adjust the target to whatever they like by regulation. No legislation needed.

  21. I’ve just tuned into all this drama so I may have the wrong end of the stick on this. But won’t that pretty much suit Labor? Now when they get into power they can adjust the target to whatever they like by regulation. No legislation needed.

    I was thinking the same thing Darn!

  23. BeetRooter circling for his job back…

    .@michaelpachi: there is also pressure on @M_McCormackMP’s position due to his support of the NEG.

    MORE: bit.ly/2PeOZcZ #credlin

  24. Darn @ #2415 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    The controversial target at the heart of the policy, a 26 per cent cut to emissions by 2030, will be set by ministerial regulation rather than being cemented in legislation to avoid forcing Liberals and Nationals MPs to vote for a climate change target they cannot support.

    I’ve just tuned into all this drama so I may have the wrong end of the stick on this. But won’t that pretty much suit Labor? Now when they get into power they can adjust the target to whatever they like by regulation. No legislation needed.

    No
    Same article

    The revised plan will make affordability an essential consideration in any change to the target, with an expert panel or other measures being considered to put a check on a future government’s ability to raise the target with the ministerial stroke of a pen.

  25. ABC TV News lead stories –

    – Chopper Crash
    – Arthena’s death
    – Hay from WA for NSW Drought Properties

    No mention about backflip with pike or internal fight in the Government – yet anyway. It ‘may’ come later….

    Gutless ABC.

    But Albo gave a speech – high rotation etc

  27. I think the term is ‘milch cow’, isn’t it?

    I have a friend who used to be one of the higher ups in the Transport Department of NSW. He told me that when the Coalition came to power here they had a night of the long knives among the senior levels of the bureaucracy as they thought they were all Labor Mates. So, he got retrenched with a very handsome severance package. Paid off the mortgage on his house in Balmain and went on a long trip to Europe.

    Next thing he knows, when he gets back after about 6 months away from the job, he is being invited to be a Contractor for the State government doing exactly what he was doing before! But at a much higher rate of pay than the old State Public Service scales.

    The idiots had lost all the corporate memory!

    So, of course he took on the contract and laughed all the way to the bank.

    He was a good Labor man too. And still is. 🙂

  28. So, Mr. Turnbull proves just how desperate he is to hang onto the PMship by turfing the Paris agreement target? Suits Labor, can ramp up the target nicely.
    Would like to see Labor talking more about global warming and the effects of same. Will bring it up at the branch meeting tomorrow, as well as the beyond the pale situation of those children on Nauru.

  30. First reaction from the loons to Lucien’s capitulation….

    .@CraigKellyMP:@TurnbullMalcolm’s changes to the NEG ‘could make this worse.’

    MORE: bit.ly/2PeOZcZ #credlin

  31. The revised plan will make affordability an essential consideration in any change to the target, with an expert panel or other measures being considered to put a check on a future government’s ability to raise the target with the ministerial stroke of a pen.

    Well that will be interesting to see. Obviously there’s short, medium and long term affordability, not to mention viability. I’m guessing this numptyville govt won’t be thinking long term or even medium term however.

  33. The problem with being able to change everything by regulation is that everything can just be changed back again, unless a ratchet mechanism is put in place.

    For example: only raised emission targets can be via regulation. If the minister wishes to lower it, he or she must do it via legislation.

  35. @davrosz tweets

    Stop the negativity! I think Dutton will be a terrific PM. I mean, look at how great Christmas Island, Manus and Nauru are now.

  36. Darn says:
    Friday, August 17, 2018 at 6:59 pm
    The controversial target at the heart of the policy, a 26 per cent cut to emissions by 2030, will be set by ministerial regulation rather than being cemented in legislation to avoid forcing Liberals and Nationals MPs to vote for a climate change target they cannot support.
    I’ve just tuned into all this drama so I may have the wrong end of the stick on this. But won’t that pretty much suit Labor? Now when they get into power they can adjust the target to whatever they like by regulation. No legislation needed.

    Unfortunately it wouldn’t work like this. According to Crowe, Turnbull’s new bill would also include a provision (to appease Abbott et al) making it extremely difficult for Ministerial regulations to raise emissions targets.

  40. “dave says:
    Friday, August 17, 2018 at 7:12 pm
    12 minutes in NEG gets a mention etc etc”

    Is Jennett there saying what a masterstroke by the PM?

  41. ABC 7 pm news has done a long live interview with Aussie “correspondent” in Detroit about Arethra Franklin’s death. Seriously, what could possibly justify this level of expenditure when it’s followed by a well-prepared biographical vignette?

    Well, they needed to stall before being forced to report on the LNP Clown Show which followed the Franklin tribute.

  45. The Daily ToiletPaper….

    MALCOLM Turnbull has radically changed his energy policy in a desperate bid to prevent a backbench revolt from rebel MPs and a possible leadership challenge.

    The Prime Minister has dumped the government’s plans to legislate the 26 per cent Paris emissions reduction target by 2030.

    The target was part of the overall National Energy Guarantee that Mr Turnbull was facing potential backlash on from 10 rebel MPs inside the Coalition.

    The 2015 climate change commitment will now be set by a Ministerial order or regulation.

    It will also mean that MPs will not have to vote on it as it won’t be part of legislation.

    This is turn is expected to improve Mr Turnbull’s chances of securing an agreement with the states and territories to approve the NEG.

    Fairfax Media reports that Mr Turnbull will take the plan to Federal Cabinet on Monday night, and he is inviting some cabinet colleague to dinner at The Lodge in Sunday night to discuss it further.

    The late move comes after reports that conservative MPs were urging Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton to launch a leadership challenge against Mr Turnbull.

    Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese said today that Mr Dutton had revealed his intentions on radio yesterday but accused him of merely being a “glove puppet for Tony Abbott”.

  46. Oooh Sick Burn!!

    Simon Holmes a Court tweets

    @laurieatlas @Geoff36707259 @CUhlmann on energy, i make serious effort to understand what i’m talking about. i have a wide network of experts and 15 years of experience — and, not just with energy, when i don’t know what i’m talking about i try to shut my mouth.

  47. There are constitutional obstacles to price control by the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth could become a power generator and distributor – a competitor in the market – but this would be heretical. They large players in the sector would not welcome a State-owned competitor, that is for sure. State intervention could only have disruptive effects on investment, especially in the renewables market.

    Apart from this, the Commonwealth really has few powers and relies on the States to regulate their power industries.

    The Liberals will rue the day they ever abolished Labor’s system.

  50. According to Crowe, Turnbull’s new bill would also include a provision (to appease Abbott et al) making it extremely difficult for Ministerial regulations to raise emissions targets.

    Labor can’t agree to this!

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