Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. boomy1 says:
    Friday, August 17, 2018 at 5:35 pm
    Might be time to invest in potato futures.
    I thought that was funny, does this mean I am somehow retarded.

    It was something that just popped into my head at the moment. Usually happens when I’m a bit tired and am not thinking too hard!

  5. William Bowe

    There was an article in either SMH or New Daily basically saying Foley has until September to turn the numbers around or there will be a change of leadership (rumours to Daley, Jodi Mckay or Ryan Park).

  8. William Bowe

    Could be this story

    NSW MP Ray Williams wrote letters for constituent ‘he didn’t know’ over illegal dam
    NSW Multicultural Affairs Minister Ray Williams.
    NSW Multicultural Affairs Minister Ray Williams.
    ANDREW CLENNELL

    11:53AM AUGUST 17, 2018
    Facebook
    Twitter
    Email
    The Multicultural Affairs and Disability Minister Ray Williams wrote six letters to water ministers on behalf of a constituent to help him escape prosecution and be treated favourably over an illegal dam — including two letters after he had moved seats from where the man lived.

  19. Has Alice Workman served her time in the naughty corner? Scroll past this story if she hasn’t for you

    “The leadership rumblings and leaks serve multiple goals: to push Turnbull towards dumping the Paris Agreement and shifting focus to power prices; and to gradually undermine Turnbull’s leadership to a point the public becomes open to change, as happened with Rudd-Gillard-Rudd and Abbott-Turnbull.

    Polling done by Crosby Textor in Longman in the lead up to the Super Saturday by-elections revealed four things:

    Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg wouldn’t win

    People in Longman don’t like Malcolm Turnbull

    People don’t understand the government’s impenetrable and jargony messaging around a national economic plan

    The number one issue for voters was power prices

    The LNP’s primary vote in Longman was 30%, and it leaked votes left (Labor) and right (One Nation).

    The LNP needs at least a 40% primary vote across Queensland if it is to retain marginal seats, and there is a possibility that Dutton could lose his seat.

    “There’s something quite noble in coming forward to steer the party away from possible election defeat,” is how one pro-change conservative put it to BuzzFeed News. Think Kevin Rudd in 2013 trying to save the furniture.

    Dutton told 2GB radio on Thursday that: “I’m not going to be part of the cabinet and then bag the prime minister out. Now, if my position changes – that is, I get to a point where I can’t accept what the government’s proposing, or I don’t agree – then the Westminster system is very clear. You resign your commission, you don’t serve in that cabinet. And you make that very clear in a respectful way.”

    The man Turnbull deposed, Tony Abbott, articulates the case of the rebels better than anyone else. It’s no surprise that the Monday after the government’s embarrassing performance in Super Saturday he was on 2GB radio pushing one single message — stop the (power) bills.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/heres-why-you-are-hearing-leadership-talk-about-peter-dutton?utm_term=.wuamm86qB#.fh0pprydV

  20. The controversial target at the heart of the policy, a 26 per cent cut to emissions by 2030, will be set by ministerial regulation rather than being cemented in legislation to avoid forcing Liberals and Nationals MPs to vote for a climate change target they cannot support.

    I find it ironic that this is now being done, not to make it easier for the target to be raised in the future, but so that denialists don’t have to vote for a target at all.

    The revised plan will make affordability an essential consideration in any change to the target, with an expert panel or other measures being considered to put a check on a future government’s ability to raise the target with the ministerial stroke of a pen.

    Of course Turnbull can still manage to screw things up. I wonder who will be on the “expert” panel?

    If you’re always looking over your shoulder for direction then you aren’t a leader.

  22. Jen

    7 News understands the push for @PeterDutton_MP take the role of Prime Minister is real and dangerous. #auspol #7Ne…

  25. Reality is to escape with the loot. Numerous nondescript Tasmanian Senators with exaggerated real estate portfolios, Deputy PMs from the Nationals pursuing new found corporate bonding, spiffy ex Labor guns for hire, and a Costello cocktail perhaps, never far from the teat of self indulgence.
    Reality is Shorten, morphing to become that bastion of reality, so desperately needed from among the poddy fed wannabes so available within Australian political circles. Joyce, Abbott, Mirabella, Feeney, Arbib and, Shorten and the endless conga line of aspirationals.
    Shorten will emerge from his background, for his resilience, and single-minded determination to achieve his goal.
    Shorten, the only one to maintain a learning curve, despite his obvious awkwardness.
    Destined for great things is the reality for our Billy Shorten, against the odds. There is no escape!

  26. The 2nd &3rd paragraphs in Crowe’s article are contradictory. Why would Labor states agree to an emissions target that could be changed by regulation, if the conditions in Turnbull’s bill meant it would be very difficult to raise the emissions target in future?

    The controversial target at the heart of the policy, a 26 per cent cut to emissions by 2030, will be set by ministerial regulation rather than being cemented in legislation to avoid forcing Liberals and Nationals MPs to vote for a climate change target they cannot support.

    The new approach also meets demands from Labor governments in Victoria and the ACT to allow the target to be changed by regulation, improving the odds of a deal with the states and territories to approve the NEG by October.

    The revised plan will make affordability an essential consideration in any change to the target, with an expert panel or other measures being considered to put a check on a future government’s ability to raise the target with the ministerial stroke of a pen.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-approves-radical-neg-redesign-in-bid-to-prevent-backbench-revolt-20180817-p4zy6d.html

  27. Reality is to escape with the loot. Numerous nondescript Tasmanian Senators with exaggerated real estate portfolios, Deputy PMs from the Nationals pursuing new found corporate bonding, spiffy ex Labor guns for hire, and a Costello cocktail perhaps, never far from the teat of self indulgence.
    Reality is Shorten, morphing to become that bastion of reality, so desperated needed from among the poddy fed wannabes so available within Australian political circles. Joyce, Abbott, Mirabella, Feeney, Arbib and, Shorten and the endless conga line of aspirationals.
    Shorten will emerge from his background, for his resilience, and single-minded determination to achieve his goal.
    Shorten, the only one to a maintain learning curve, despite his obvious awkwardness.
    Destined for great things is the reality for our Billy Shorten, against the odds. There is no escape!

    SNIP: Cut and paste fail deleted – The Management.

  29. Malcolm Turnbull has called Cabinet ministers to the Lodge on Sunday night. Wants to lock them into the new NEG scheme, no Paris targets legislated, big penalties for ‘price gouging’..

    A ‘prominent moderate’ has told Mark Riley the challenge is real, and if Turnbull does not lower electricity prices several Cabinet ministers will be resigning to create an atmosphere of crisis.

  30. What a farce – gives Labor the perfect cover to hold out for better legislation should they win the election, they can always say “we would have approved the original as a compromise but we won’t be approving this thought bubble”

  33. shiftaling @ #2378 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 3:24 pm

    What a farce – gives Labor the perfect cover to hold out for better legislation should they win the election, they can always say “we would have approved the original as a compromise but we won’t be approving this thought bubble”

    Once again the RWFW play their only card,

    delay!!!

  34. On this power prices thing. Which government decided to privatise the power companies? I can’t remember whether it was a federal idea, or done state by state.

  36. Shorten Suite tweets

    Things are so bad the Prime Minister’s office is telling the media about this capitulation a full three days before it’s even considered by Cabinet.

    Absolute shambles.

    #auspol

  38. William

    That story, or similar variation on themes, have confronted many of us who have worked with politicians. Having come across many of these Type A personalities, I can say they get most exercised when the threat of losing their seat is looming.

    What is Type A?

    Competitiveness

    Type A individuals tend to be very competitive and self-critical. They strive toward goals without feeling a sense of joy in their efforts or accomplishments.

    Interrelated with this is the presence of a significant life imbalance. This is characterized by a high work involvement. Type A individuals are easily ‘wound up’ and tend to overreact. They also tend to have high blood pressure (hypertension).

    Time Urgency

    Type A personalities experience a constant sense of urgency: Type A people seem to be in a constant struggle against the clock.

    Often, they quickly become impatient with delays and unproductive time, schedule commitments too tightly, and try to do more than one thing at a time, such as reading while eating or watching television.

    Hostility

    Type A individuals tend to be easily aroused to anger or hostility, which they may or may not express overtly. Such individuals tend to see the worse in others, displaying anger, envy and a lack of compassion.

    When this behavior is expressed overtly (i.e., physical behavior) it generally involves aggression and possible bullying (Forshaw, 2012). Hostility appears to be the main factor linked to heart disease and is a better predictor than the TAPB as a whole.

  39. Surely this will be the thing that does for Turnbull’s popularity. We’ve seen flipflops, from him before but this looks ridiculous!

  40. 😀

    Joel Fitzgibbon
    ‏Verified account @fitzhunter
    1m1 minute ago

    If Dutton rolls Turnbull will the new secret Coalition Agreement include a “bring back Barnaby” clause? #auspol #libspill

  42. And Toolman joins the pile on Lucien Aye..

    “The Coalition’s energy battle is turning into a leadership war.
    In the darkest of ironies, if Malcolm Turnbull gets Labor to back his National Energy Guarantee he risks a haemorrhage from his back-bench and the chance a Cabinet Minister will quit.

    Nine News has confirmed that Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton is considering all his options, including resigning his ministry and leading a mass exodus of Coalition MPs across the floor; rather than be seen lining up behind an energy plan backed by Labor.

    One Minister told Nine News: “if the only way this thing gets up is with Labor’s support then there is no way it will fly”.
    “There is open revolt in Queensland by people who hold the view that they are already dead,” the Minister said.
    Queensland is the epicentre of the rebellion as many Liberal National Party MPs have convinced themselves the Longman by-election loss heralds their demise at next year’s general election.

    Another senior Liberal said that Mr Dutton would not challenge but admitted his resignation would seriously damage the Prime Minister and might bring on a spill led by someone else.

    The Prime Minister’s level of concern can be measured by his response. Nine News has been told Mr Turnbull has now taken personal responsibility for delivering lower power prices and is pledging heavy handed intervention in the market.

    Many Turnbull supporters blame former Prime Minister Tony Abbott for the unrest and say his sole motivation is to terminally damage the man who unseated him.”

    “He’s determined to blow up the whole show,” said one Minister who believes that the unrest is limited to as just a handful.

    https://www.9news.com.au/2018/08/17/17/11/energy-battle-turnbull-government-could-crumble-if-backing-labor

  46. Gee, so the states weren’t so far off the mark in saying that the the whole NEG thing was a mish-mash and they didnt know what they were agreeing to (so why agree with anything)?

    So much for brilliant victories.

    When will numpties like Crowe learn?

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