Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 47 of 54
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  1. Zoidlord

    Pot Kettle Black. I only sound like it because I am trying to beat into your partisan head you can’t have your own facts.

  2. Take the “African Gangs” race baiting, it was started by the Liberals:

    SBS News
    ‏Verified account @SBSNews
    1h1 hour ago

    Australian South Sudanese have shared their stories of discrimination and called for an end to the ‘African gangs’ fear campaign. http://bit.ly/2Mnr4uc

  5. @guytaur

    Pointing at labor isn’t facts.
    Pointing in general isn’t facts.
    Blaming at Labor isn’t facts.
    Points isn’t facts.

  6. Zoidlord

    Of course the LNP have been race baiting. That was part of the tweet content by Bandt.

    Its only your partisan viewpoint that sees it only as an attack on Labor.

  8. Lenore Taylor
    ‏Verified account @lenoretaylor
    1m1 minute ago

    Barnaby Joyce accused of tilting Murray-Darling authority towards irrigators
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/17/barnaby-joyce-accused-of-tilting-murray-darling-authority-towards-irrigators?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Greens do nothing party still allowing Barney to have his way.

    Because you know The National Party is the anti-Environmental Party but the Greens suppose to be the Environmental Party 🙂

    But Greens too bloody busy being a Anti-Labor Party.

  10. I hope that today I have made my point. When the Greens point out facts and attack on them. Some Labor partisans here see that only as an attack on Labor and the part where the LNP are being attacked is invisible to them

  11. @guytaur

    Of course it is an attack on Labor Party.

    When you do pointing to a SINGLE group of people you are discriminating by misleading the public.

    “prejudicial treatment of different categories of people, especially on the grounds of race, age, or sex”

    Maybe someone should go back to school ?

  12. Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    49s50 seconds ago

    Adani: Indigenous group loses bid to block Carmichael coalmine
    Guardian Australia‏Verified account @GuardianAus49s50 seconds agoAdani: Indigenous group loses bid to block Carmichael coalmine

  14. Barney

    What one can say is that Labor partisans are so enmeshed in Green hatred they can’t see the attack on the LNP when part of it also is an attack on Labor.

    Thats what we can say.

  15. Most of the senior LNP mob will be well advanced with the implementation of their respective exit strategies and ready to announce their decisions not to contest the next election due to changing family configurations.
    A few, possessing no other useful characteristics, will hang around, like unwanted uncles intent on feasting on the last vestiges of undeserved privilege. Dutton perhaps, Abbott and any number of Ruddocks.
    The Turnbull /Abbott government has set the bar very low indeed.

  17. Golly @ #2315 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 5:21 pm

    Most of the senior LNP mob will be well advanced with the implementation of their respective exit strategies and ready to announce their decisions not to contest the next election due to changing family configurations.
    A few, possessing no other useful characteristics, will hang around, like unwanted uncles intent on feasting on the last vestiges of undeserved privilege. Dutton perhaps, Abbott and any number of Ruddocks.
    The Turnbull /Abbott government has set the bar very low indeed.

    Maybe they are sounding out their families to see if they actually want them to spend more time with them.

  18. Unless I have got it wrong then B R-S’s case seems to be that some soldiers made up totally untrue stories about war crimes that did not happen because they were jealous of him and because they were disgruntled. Further he claims that leaking stuff about the IGADF inquiry is a criminal act. Further he claims that the police have never contacted him about an domestic violence allegation.
    There have been reports that some SAS troopers have given sworn evidence about the allegations to the IGADF. IMO, ff they done that on the basis of stuff that simply did not happen then they must be seriously jealous and/or disgruntled.

    I remain curious about the significant number of anonymous communications spanning some considerable amount of time. Some of these contain threats. Since at least one of these has been reported directly to the IGADF, and since deliberately targetting alledged witnesses IS a crime, then I assume that the IGADF is investigating this as well.

    Curiouser and curiouser.

    B R-S has yet to give evidence to the IGADF’s inquiry.

  24. Why would the Liberals swap Mr Turnbull for Mr Dutton? It defies reason.

    Mr Dutton never polls above 5% against all comers in any leadership poll. The only player who polls less than Mr Dutton is Mr Morrison who is currently on around 3%.

    M.A.D?

  28. Boerwar @ #2324 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 5:31 pm

    Why would the Liberals swap Mr Turnbull for Mr Dutton? It defies reason.

    Mr Dutton never polls above 5% against all comers in any leadership poll. The only player who polls less than Mr Dutton is Mr Morrison who is currently on around 3%.

    M.A.D?

    I reckon it’s the Conservatives that have gone to the mattresses. They’ll make fake news until they make it news. I’d have to hear someone from the more reasoned part of the party start hedging their bets before I’d give it any credence.

  33. I doubt Turnbull would have carried the Party Room on Tuesday if a leadership change was in the wind. I think it’s just 2GBinc stirring.

  34. From the GG this morning :
    Yet while Turnbull tries to placate MPs over prices, there is a growing, wider discontent over his political handling of energy and other issues, including his response to the by-election losses, an inability to put pressure on the ALP and the selling of the government’s tax agenda

    Can this be the true? According to the press gallery, Bill ‘questions to answer’ Shorten has been ‘under pressure’ all year.

  35. Potatoes, unlike many agricultural commodities, do not keep well.
    And before Guytaur chimes in, green potatoes are poison.

  36. I expected this would happen after Fraser Anning’s disgraceful speech …

    https://www.smh.com.au/sydney-news/don-t-pull-the-plug-on-vital-ingredient-to-sydney-s-liveability-20180816-p4zxxi.html

    Eamon Waterford, director of policy for “The Committee for Sydney”, conflates blaming the level of immigration for our major cities woes with blaming migrants. The former is a sound and defensible position (even if you happen to disagree with it). The latter is not defensible at all in a largely immigrant nation such as Australia.

    Conflating the two, in a blatant attempt to short-circuit discussion of the issue, is pure intellectual dishonesty.

    Labor should come out with a decent population policy. If it did so, it would win the forthcoming election by a landslide.

  37. If there is truth to Dutton moving to challenge Turnbull, do we think he is a force in his own right, or just acting as a stalking horse for Abbott?

  40. Ratsak – is it possible to state why, as a matter of policy, Malcolm has come up with the NEG?

    Turnbull wanted to exploit politically the blackout in SA after that storm that knocked over all their transmission towers. As with most things Turnbull has touched since entering politics, he’s stuffing it up.

    I have a new political rule: Be careful when wedging your opponent that you don’t end up wedging yourself.

  42. guytaur @ #2315 Friday, August 17th, 2018 – 2:21 pm

    Barney

    What one can say is that Labor partisans are so enmeshed in Green hatred they can’t see the attack on the LNP when part of it also is an attack on Labor.

    Thats what we can say.

    You just don’t understand the difference between structure and implementation.

    Take Robodebt for example.

    Robodebt is not new.

    It has for years been used to highlight potential welfare fraud.

    Previously the information would go to Centrelink staff who would determine whether there was an issue.

    The current Government changed the implementation of Robodebt by removing the Centrelink oversight and sent letters straight out to those flagged.

    As a result many people who did not have a debt received letters claiming they did.

    Same goes for many policy platforms, it comes down to how you implement it.

  43. Conflating the two, in a blatant attempt to short-circuit discussion of the issue, is pure intellectual dishonesty.

    But what do you reckon? I’m pretty sure that you despise everyone else I can’t cope with too

  45. Barney

    Nowhere did I disagree with your point. What I pointed out was that the tweet Adam Bandt put out was only attacking Labor for SUPPORTING the LNP. That is the main attack was the LNP.

    That was it.

  46. Michelle Rowland
    ‏Verified account @MRowlandMP
    1m1 minute ago

    Backflip on regional broadband price hike. Whether it’s copper or coal – consumers will pay more under the Turnbull Government. #NBN #auspol

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