Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

764 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. “In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 28%, ALP 20%, GREENS 7%, UNDECIDED 22%.”

    Huh?…. That’s 77%…. 23% missing in action….
    The “Silent Majority”?
    The “Lost Tribe of Israel”?
    “Wayne’s mates”?
    “a bunch of voters abducted by aliens”?…..

  2. “I think our great government were right to give that $444 millions dollars to the reef”…

    …. Because I can now apply to study the nocturnal sexual behaviour of pelagic zooplankton in full moon…. Surely they will need some help to be able to spend all that money…. there is only so much brandy you can buy and drink until the next election, without ending up in hospital.

  3. bc,

    Do you think Shorten will have a single sleepless night worrying about arguing income tax? Trumble is an idiot. That is why he has come up with a tax cut con that not a single voter will see a cent of in their pay packet before they vote and which everyone who isn’t on a promise for a tax cut after the election after the next one will get more money if they vote Labor.

    It is the tax policy you design when you want to lose an election on tax policy.

    So yes Trumble probably does see it as an achievement.

  4. Just catching up

    Boris says:
    Monday, August 13, 2018 at 8:27 pm
    This cost may be compared with $443.8 million dollars spent in a single day in June, and which is now sitting in term deposits, doing bupkiss.

    Earns close to $500,000 in 14 days which is the cost of the feed for 14 days.

    Boris that is brilliant – Labor should push that line every day from now till the election!

    Even people like me who shop at K-Mart get it.

  5. “It is the tax policy you design when you want to lose an election on tax policy.”….

    Oh my, Turnbull is a secret ALP agent implanted at the top of the Liberal party…. in order to destroy it!

    Bloody hell….. Shorten is a genius!

  6. Rocket Rocket @ #707 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 9:50 pm

    Just catching up

    Boris says:
    Monday, August 13, 2018 at 8:27 pm
    This cost may be compared with $443.8 million dollars spent in a single day in June, and which is now sitting in term deposits, doing bupkiss.

    Earns close to $500,000 in 14 days which is the cost of the feed for 14 days.

    Boris that is brilliant – Labor should push that line every day from now till the election!

    Even people like me who shop at K-Mart get it.

    Reverse engineer it, maybe that’s where the $443.8 million came from, $1,000,000 per month would need…lets see…

  7. The other thing about the income tax cuts is how can they be justified, after years of being told that Howard and Costello left the budget in structural deficit.

  8. bc:

    I can see:

    . Malcolm breathing on polls
    _______________
    Yes, but there are no bubbles coming out of Malky’s mouth, so there is no oxygen in the polls!

  9. Dan Gulberry @ #714 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    Not watching QandA, but going by the #qanda tweet stream it seems to be about 50% for Cornell West, 50% against Eric Abetz.

    The first couple of questions were basically the Eric Abetz show. The next couple, it’s the Cornell West show.

    Also, Q&A has been doing this ‘citizen’s panelist’ thing for a few weeks now. Have they had even one from the left of center yet?

  10. John, why do you think they’re on the never never? It’s not a serious policy. It was never intended to be implemented. It was just another Trumble Brainfart to try and get through the budget session. Everyone knows that whatever tax cuts are implemented in 7 years time it won’t be these.

  11. Dan Gulberry @ #714 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 8:04 pm

    Not watching QandA, but going by the #qanda tweet stream it seems to be about 50% for Cornell West, 50% against Eric Abetz.

    We;ve only just heard from the other woman on the panel, some 30mins after the show started.

    And the citizen’s person rep? Has there been a compelling person citizen’s rep to date?

  12. “WHO MADE UP $444 MILLION?”….

    It’s got a clear hidden symbolism.
    4-4-4 was delivered in the 2nd year of this term, the second and last of Turnbull’s terms. Add 2 to each one of the digits and you get:
    666…. The number of The Beast!

    It’s Turnbull’s message to the Liberal party: I am the Beast and I am going to take all of you to electoral Hell….

    …. and he is certainly delivering….

  13. Nick Ross
    ‏Verified account @NickRossTech
    12m12 minutes ago
    Replying to @KKeneally @barriecassidy

    @lenoretaylor Well I told Labor that ABC management was manipulating news to help the Libs win the 2013 election (with evidence) and they did nothing. The unions said to keep quiet and when it broke not a single ABC journo mentioned it. There’s some root problems. #auspol

  14. Alpo

    Oh my, Turnbull is a secret ALP agent implanted at the top of the Liberal party…. in order to destroy it!

    Which is exactly what dozens of comments on BoltA’s blog,Pies blog and in the GG said when Lucien was LOTO.

  15. will the LNP split I have been hoping for for years happen tomorrow.

    Abbott would love to be the bob santamaria of his generation. He may be the only person of his generation to not think santa was a loon. c@#ts of a feather……

    if turnbull had any guts he’d demand abbott and his cohort resign from the LNP and head to an election with more moderate candidates.

  16. will the LNP split I have been hoping for for years happen tomorrow.

    Abbott would love to be the bob santamaria of his generation. He may be the only person of his generation to not think santa was a loon. c@#ts of a feather……

    if turnbull had any guts he’d demand abbott and his cohort resign from the LNP and head to an election with more moderate candidates.

  17. DTT
    I watched it. It was pretty fair. AHPRA is pretty weak. They take six months to toss out trivial BS and then don’t do anything to doctors with a terrible track record who ignore them.
    Some of those cosmetic surgeons are like the bankers and financial advisors. They don’t care if they are doing something unethical or dangerous or even borderline illegal; they build the risk of getting caught and the size of the punishment into their business model and have decided it’s business as usual.

  18. Diogenes @ #730 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 10:24 pm

    DTT
    I watched it. It was pretty fair. AHPRA is pretty weak. They take six months to toss out trivial BS and then don’t do anything to doctors with a terrible track record who ignore them.
    Some of those cosmetic surgeons are like the bankers and financial advisors. They don’t care if they are doing something unethical or dangerous or even borderline illegal; they build the risk of getting caught and the size of the punishment into their business model and have decided it’s business as usual.

    Yes I has it on in the background but could not watch. Bit squeamish.

  19. DTT
    The surgery scenes were pretty gratuitous. They didn’t really add anything except gore factor. They should have done more on clinics that offer finance deals for cosmetic procedures. I think the Medical Board might put a stop to that one day. I’ve heard of people with brain tumours being told they will have to pay $50K or they will die and the clinic will organise the finance.

  20. Instead of QA I am watching Puppies Make You Laugh.

    Better for my stress levels and there is a lot more sense.

  21. Diogenes @ #735 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 10:34 pm

    DTT
    The surgery scenes were pretty gratuitous. They didn’t really add anything except gore factor. They should have done more on clinics that offer finance deals for cosmetic procedures. I think the Medical Board might put a stop to that one day. I’ve heard of people with brain tumours being told they will have to pay $50K or they will die and the clinic will organise the finance.

    Such people are the lowest of the low.

    Bring back the stocks. I would happily chuck a mouldy tomato at them or a day old used nappy.

  22. Well. If ever there was a Qanda that reinforced the view that it’s the Jerry Springer Show for elites, that would be one of them.

  23. “Citizen’s rep is a total plonker.”
    Is QANDA seriously sticking on some random loudmouth on their panel? I didn’t think they could dumb it down any more.

  24. Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    12h12 hours ago
    Sad little boys head home to their waifu pillows, generic lube, and the soul-crushing misery of Mom’s basement.

    Surrounded by Thousands of Protesters, White Nationalists Sneak Out of Their Own D.C. Rally

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/jason-kessler-white-nationalists-leaders-sneak-out-of-their-own-dc-rally

    And serendipitously, from the photos I saw, the majority of police escorting their ‘rally’ were African Americans.

  25. “will the LNP split I have been hoping for for years happen tomorrow”… Although I also considered that as one possibility at some stage, I now think that Abbott and the Hard Conservatives have definitely got the situation under control (the by-elections were a total disaster for Turnbull).

    They are forcing Turnbull into an election asap, but whatever Turnbull decides, the election is inevitable next year anyway. Abbott is reckoning that a strong bashing of the Coalition at the election will tip the balance of power within the Liberal party: fewer Moderates, more relative power to the Hard Conservatives. Hence the H. Conservatives will take over and Abbott will very likely return to his old job as leader of the Coalition in opposition.

    So, it will be back to the future for the Coalition…. but not for Labor, hence, unbeknownst to Abbott, the “story won’t be repeated” as he thinks it will….

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