Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

764 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. FS. Things are not what they seem. There are people taking the piss here all the time.
    And so they should. Nothing is more appropriate for taking the piss than political views. Right now I’m listening to Leigh Sales interveiwing a talking Chimpanzee, like Lancelot Link, Secret Chimp. Incredibly. it turns out that he was once a Prime Minister.

  2. Wayne @ #1722 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    I’m will be here every day till the next election and beyond to make sure our great LNP stay on the government bench’s forever and stop the labor party getting back in and doing damage to our great country

    Yap. Yap. Yap, yap, yap, yap, yap. Yap. Yap, yap, yap, yap. Yap. Yap.
    Yap. Miow.

  3. Confessions @ #627 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    So the question remains as to why Turnbull isn’t just ignoring them and concentrating on the cross benches and Labor?

    If Lucien is seen to be dealing crossbenchers and especially Labor, he’s gone. Every Murdoch publication under the sun will mount a full on Kill Lucien campaign. His backbench will revolt*, and he’s out on his arse with no legacy to define his PMship.

    * I know, I know, his backbench is already revolting. 😉

  4. This cost may be compared with $443.8 million dollars spent in a single day in June, and which is now sitting in term deposits, doing bupkiss.

    Earns close to $500,000 in 14 days which is the cost of the feed for 14 days.

  5. Jane Norman
    ‏Verified account @janeenorman
    7m7 minutes ago

    Tomago Aluminium was one of seven companies which today endorsed the NEG: “we call on federal, state and territory parliamentarians to take the necessary steps to implement the Guarantee without further delay this week” #auspol

    Some of these companies are part of the #reefgate foundation.

  6. I know Wayne is a piss take. Everyone who isn’t a congenital idiot knows Wayne is a piss take.

    I laugh with him, not at him.

  7. Fess
    its a bad nation wide situation, we are being asked as a nation to help, similar to a war emergency.
    Plenty of people ready to help, but where is that help and assistance going.

  8. Good evening all,

    Turnbull can roll over for his party room and promise the world to get their support for the NEG legislation. It will mean jack shit. Even if Turnbull does get it through the Parliament despite Abbott and Joyce ( at the least ) it will go nowhere.

    Victoria will not support the NEG if and when it comes back to COAG. Andrews has demanded a number of non negotiables including future emission changes be by regulation and not legislation. ACT and Queensland will play along as well. This aspect seems to have been forgotten by the MSM.

    I think Turnbull will have to take the NEG to the election as a promise and not a given while also promising to spend billions on new coal powered power stations that will take years to come on line.

    We shall see.

  9. Dan G:

    I reckon Turnbull’s leadership would survive if he cold-shouldered the Abbottobods. They do not have the numbers in the partyroom to mount a leadership challenge, and the party is not going to return to Abbott.

    And bonus is that he’d probably get a tick of approval from voters if he acted decisively by dealing with Labor and the x-benchers by negotiating some kind of GHGE abatement legislation through parliament.

    Of course knowing MT he will find a way to stuff that up.

  10. Boris:

    At the weekend we were asked at Woollies whether we wanted to purchase something or other for the drought-affected farmers. Not knowing precisely what the ‘something’ was, or where the money went at the end of the line, we declined.

  11. I’m still trying to figure out whether Bludgers who interact with “Wayne” realise “he” is a complete invention, a sock puppet.

  12. Labor, the Greens, GetUp! and the Unions would unleash Mediscare on steroids, and it would resonate because nobody would believe that company tax cuts were dead and burried. It would turn the election loss into a catastrophe for the L/NP.

    It would be worse for the LNP to take this deeply unpopular policy to the next election. That would make the scare campaign even more potent. Few voters will respect the LNP for sticking by it because few voters see a need for corporate tax cuts; are they are instead very angry about the prospect of such tax cuts.

    The LNP will be hurt no matter when they do with this policy but they can minimize their losses by making an argument along the lines of “we thought it was worth doing, couldn’t get it through the Senate, clear that the people have rejected it and want us to focus on other priorities, we have listened”. Even if it’s BS, better than the alternative (bloody-minded pursuit of a policy than angers most voters).

  13. BB
    “he” is a complete invention, a sock puppet.”
    .

    As with a ‘complete idiot’ there are still some bits missing.

  14. Earlier tonight ItzaDream had a link to “Neutrollization”, https://theconversation.com/we-researched-russian-trolls-and-figured-out-exactly-how-they-neutralise-certain-news-100994
    ItzaGoodRead (sorry), but in the context of provocateurs on this blog, and one particular monosyllabic instance ce soir, I wonder if there isn’t a deeper motive than smug provocateur giggles. Perhaps disruption or distraction or dilution or even diminishment is the intent. Just askin. 😉

  15. Wayne is a useful idiot. Allows me to keep proving what a garbage government he supports. And to put up the counterpoint. 🙂

  16. “I’m here to stay to fight for my beloved LNP to make sure they are returned to the government bench’s come May 2019 and they will be in government till 2022″…

    Hey guys, I have to confess something: I am starting to kind of like Wayne…. He reminds me of Hirō Onoda, the Japanese soldier who kept “fighting” World War II hidden in a jungle of the Philippines for 29 years, until his former commander travelled from Japan to relieve him from duty in 1974….

    SOLDIER WAYNE, IT’S YOUR COMMANDER HERE…. THE WAR IS….. OVER!!


  17. Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, August 13, 2018 at 8:55 pm

    I’m still trying to figure out whether Bludgers who interact with “Wayne” realise “he” is a complete invention, a sock puppet.

    It’s what makes him so much fun.

  18. WHOSE IDEA WAS IT?
    EXACTLY WHEN DID THE IDEA FIRST STRIKE?
    WHO MADE UP $444 MILLION?
    WHY NOT $544 MILLION?
    WHY NOT $344 MILLION?

  19. poroti:

    Abbott’s no sniping while continuing to snipe is akin to Barnaby’s personal leave to tamp down the media hype while writing a book, thus guaranteeing further media hype.

  20. BW, for mine the question is whose idea it was, then quickly followed by who approved it? The question of the amount is likely a distraction. The Shark Tank probably nailed it with “Shut up I just said it” and then the amount was tweaked to include a “point eight” (million) to make it appear as if somebody did some sums. It is a ridiculous amount of our money, given to a handful of schmoozers who just happen to have strong links to Turnbull’s mates. (As far as I’ve read here and other news outlets.)

    So, whose idea and whose approval? And how do we get the answers?

  21. Mr Denmore
    ‏ @MrDenmore
    1m1 minute ago

    The PM’s department had the ABC take down a tweet of analysis of the #GBRF scandal by the editor of @GuardianAus because they didn’t agree with it?? And the ABC agreed???

  22. Wayne is one of William’s inventions. A social experiment designed to fire people up.

    Kind of like a go-go boy.

  23. ABC Q&AVerified account@QandA
    5m5 minutes ago
    In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 28%, ALP 20%, GREENS 7%, UNDECIDED 22%.

    What polling are they using I wonder?

  24. I’m sure he would be quite happy to go to the next election arguing that the ALP are blocking lower electricity prices and to blame for all blackouts.

    That would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. So yes very likely something Trumble would be happy with.

    Come next May if he makes it that far Trumble will have been PM for 3 years and 8 months. And he will have not a single achievement worth mentioning to his name.

    Not being Tony Abbott only just saved his stupid arse last time. It won’t do anything good for him next election. And neither will shining a spotlight on any of his numerous failures. Being PM comes with the expectation you might actually be able to do the things you say you will. Otherwise what’s the point of you.

    When NEG dies if Brian had a brain he’d never mention electricity again. To do so would only remind everyone what a complete failure on it he is. Same thing with tax, education, health, and pretty much everything really.

    His only hope would be to shout about something completely new that he hasn’t fucked up yet (yes I’m struggling to come up with one too) and hope to draw the media and Labor into ignoring the past two terms entirely.

    So obviously Lucien will instead centre his campaign around all the things he’s failed to do.

  25. zoid:

    This was the response to Lenore Taylor by the Insiders personnel

    Samuel ClarkVerified account@sclark_melbs
    5h5 hours ago
    This was my call yesterday and on reflection it was a mistake. I should have quote tweeted the original tweet and provided the new information given to me by government. Apologies to @lenoretaylor. Her comments remain on iview and on the Insiders website.

  26. Boerwar I was wondering the same thing. Sure there may be a 10% admin fee, so $400+$40= $440 m or so.
    But where does the $400m starting figure come from? Has the government been asked this?

    On the NEG. rat is correct, Turnbull cannot ignore the right and negotiate with Labor.
    Apart from NewsLtd, the Liberal membership would go feral. It also negates a campaign tactic for the next election, Labor=carbon tax=higher electricity prices.

    In addition he has been told with the powers that be not to.
    I suppose that is something else he hasn’t been asked.

  27. Player One @ #691 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 9:21 pm

    Late Riser @ #687 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 9:17 pm

    So, whose idea and whose approval? And how do we get the answers?

    We know the answers to that. The question now is how do we get our goddamn money back! 🙁

    True, but I want them who did it to say it. In terms of getting the $$s back it occurred to me that the GBRF, by putting the $$s into a term deposit rather than spending it, made it possible to get the money back because it is still findable. (If we believe them.)

  28. “Tony Abbott has denied he has sniped, wrecked, or leaked against the government”….

    He could be right, actually. In fact he has been criticising and confronting Turnbull quite openly… Abbott promised not to rodently nibble at Turnbull’s floor…. He never promised not to smash it with a hammer…. The NEG is his hammer…..

  29. ratsak says Monday, August 13, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    Come next May if he makes it that far Trumble will have been PM for 3 years and 8 months. And he will have not a single achievement worth mentioning to his name.

    I’m sure he thinks his income tax cuts are an achievement. Sure, they’s stuff up the budget for years and increase inequality, but I doubt many in the LNP see that as a problem. They’ll probably enjoy the resulting cuts to government expenditure.

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