Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

764 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. There are some people who post here who argue with Wayne and sometimes take him seriously.
    It’s really bloody funny reading it all.

  2. Grim,

    Same message as for BB.

    The company tax con was classic Trumble stupidity to start with. But now he’s invested everything in them including doubling down in the aftermath of Super Saturday it would be utter stupidity to drop them.

    Which is exactly why you can bet that is exactly what Lucien will do.

  3. I’m here to stay to fight for my beloved LNP to make sure they are returned to the government bench’s come May 2019 and they will be in government till 2022

  4. Turning off 7.30 after 2 minutes of Abbott, I’m reminded of the classic quote.

    “I’m not a proctologist, but I know an arsehole,when I see one!”

  5. Fess

    Might have been recorded earlier. Plus its from his Canberra office. He could make the 8.30 meeting.

  6. Katharine MurphyVerified account@murpharoo
    5m5 minutes ago
    Abbott’s response to Turnbull’s ideologues/idiocy barb in parliament. “Well, idiocy is doing more of the same and expecting a different result.” @abc730 #auspol

  7. “Wayne,
    I think I’m on pretty safe ground when I say that you are a brainwashed idiot.” I think you will find that Wayne is a very good left wing satirist.


  8. Wayne says:
    Monday, August 13, 2018 at 7:49 pm

    I’m here to stay to fight for my beloved LNP to make sure they are returned to the government bench’s come May 2019 and they will be in government till 2022

    So sad; a little doubt there; need a bit of campaign help from your good self.

  9. Ides:

    Yes, a pre-record makes sense. Abbott never did live interviews after that train wreck with Red Kerry back in the day!

  10. You are of course right Ratsak.

    Trumble will give Shorten and Labor the stick with which Labor will savagely beat the L/NP every day from now until the next election.

    How will Labor pay for that? By not handing billions to multinationals.

    Concerned about health? It will be cut so we can pay for multinational tax cuts.

    Concerned about transport? It will be cut so we can pay for multinational tax cuts.

    Concerned about education? It will be cut so we can pay for multinational tax cuts.

  11. Burgey @ #466 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 4:32 pm

    Lizzie,
    The Foundation has nothing to hide about the process I suppose. You’d struggle to find an NGO which wouldn’t accept an offer like that from a govt. The rank stupidity (at best) is on the govt side wholly and solely.

    Any sane reputable person or organisation would back quickly out of the room and never deal with that government again.

    This one stank from the start, and just gets worse.

    Election please. 🙁


  12. Peter Stanton says:
    Monday, August 13, 2018 at 7:55 pm

    “Wayne,
    I think I’m on pretty safe ground when I say that you are a brainwashed idiot.” I think you will find that Wayne is a very good left wing satirist.

    I think your right; love to know who it is.

  13. boomy1 @ #589 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    You all know that is true and ALP but us into debt

    On a qwerty keyboard the P is a long way from the B. So Wayne is either really stupid or has physical issues like the Elephant man. If Wayne say’s he is not an animal, it probably means he is just stupid or something.With huge stabby fingers, and long toenails.

    It is all explained here: http://www.theshovel.com.au/2016/11/29/most-typing-errors-on-digital-media-caused-by-autocock/

  14. So on the surface it sounds as if Abbott isn’t for turning, and Barnaby definitely won’t. So the question remains as to why Turnbull isn’t just ignoring them and concentrating on the cross benches and Labor?

  15. I’m will be here every day till the next election and beyond to make sure our great LNP stay on the government bench’s forever and stop the labor party getting back in and doing damage to our great country

  16. Presumably Turnbull will tell the meeting tonight how he intends to spend billions of our money on building a new coal fired generator.

    Also presumably he will tell the Murdoch tabloids so they can do a follow up to today’s DT front page.

    Maybe he has already made a secret payment to some shonky outfit (from Russia perhaps?)

  17. “Abbott’s response to Turnbull’s ideologues/idiocy barb in parliament. “Well, idiocy is doing more of the same and expecting a different result.”

    Openly calling each other idiots, can’t recall it happening whilst both still in parliament, maybe when one or the other had resigned.

  18. Abbott’s job, whether he realizes this or not, is to make Turnbull look good. I’d say he is doing that the only way he knows, by reminding the rest of us of the alternative. This should work until the election.

  19. frednk @ #625 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 7:57 pm


    Peter Stanton says:
    Monday, August 13, 2018 at 7:55 pm

    “Wayne,
    I think I’m on pretty safe ground when I say that you are a brainwashed idiot.” I think you will find that Wayne is a very good left wing satirist.

    I think your right; love to know who it is.

    Shows On is my guess.

  20. Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    3h
    When will @TurnbullMalcolm and his ministers learn that, in a democracy, they can’t shut down criticism offered on the ABC just because they don’t like it?
    Show this thread
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    3h
    So who in Govt contacted @insidersABC to insist that they take down the tweet of @lenoretaylor ? Who gave the ABC information that there had been due diligence with the @GBRFoundation in March? Was it @turnbullmalcolm or his office? Was it @SenatorFifield or @JoshFrydenberg ?
    Show this thread
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    3h
    Surely now @insidersABC will reinstate the tweet of @lenoretaylor ‘s comment from Sunday’s show.
    Show this thread
    Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    3h
    There is not one shred of evidence anywhere that anyone in the Turnbull Government spoke to the @GBRFoundation before 9 April. So @lenoretaylor ‘s observation was valid.

  21. saw feedstock prices were very high.
    With all this call to help farmers, donations, government aid etc is there any check done on profiteering. Can the LNP cap essential feedstock transport and other costs. When you have government assistance it can increase prices.

    has Joyce called for some sort of control on this or he is too busy selling his book, are his book profits going to help farmers or just one impoverished white male?

  22. Turnbull needs party room support for the NEG. He doesn’t necessarily need ALP support. Sure, he’s unlikely to be able to get legislation through the Senate without ALP support (although who knows with this Senate), but I’m sure he would be quite happy to go to the next election arguing that the ALP are blocking lower electricity prices and to blame for all blackouts.

    This of course would do nothing to resolve our country’s energy and emissions issues. But, that’s a long term issue that can be sacrificed to the alter of the next election.

  23. I’m will be here every day till the next election and beyond to make sure our great LNP stay on the government bench’s forever and stop the labor party getting back in and doing damage to our great country

    “It’s big, and it’s growing. At least 75% of Miss steaks can now be attributed to my amazing cock”.

    Sounds like Turnbull having a measuring exercise.

  24. Didn’t some of the States say that they would not consider the NEG until Trumble could show that he had the full support of his Team.

  25. A huge convoy of about 20 road trains laden with 2,000 bales of hay is en route from outback Western Australia to drought-stricken farmers in New South Wales.

    The massive cross-country aid effort, organised by the Rapid Relief Team (RRT) charity, includes 1,000 tonnes of hay worth $500,000 — which is enough to feed 1,000 cows or 20,000 sheep for a fortnight.

    About 16 trucks left Northam in WA’s Wheatbelt early on Monday, with the remaining trucks to join them along the route.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-13/drought-relief-convoy-leaves-wa-bound-for-nsw-farmers/10113044

    You get a sense of the scale of the need – $500K provides only a fortnight’s worth of feed.

  26. “but I’m sure he would be quite happy to go to the next election arguing that the ALP are blocking lower electricity prices and to blame for all blackouts.”

    There is a lot of investment and jobs in renewables as well as ongoing money for the local communities. Apparently renewable energy growth doesn’t come into play in the NEG, it will create uncertainty and kill future investment like the LNP did from 2013-15. It really only started recovering in 2016 and is on a strong growth path.

  27. Confessions @ #641 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 8:18 pm

    A huge convoy of about 20 road trains laden with 2,000 bales of hay is en route from outback Western Australia to drought-stricken farmers in New South Wales.

    The massive cross-country aid effort, organised by the Rapid Relief Team (RRT) charity, includes 1,000 tonnes of hay worth $500,000 — which is enough to feed 1,000 cows or 20,000 sheep for a fortnight.

    About 16 trucks left Northam in WA’s Wheatbelt early on Monday, with the remaining trucks to join them along the route.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-13/drought-relief-convoy-leaves-wa-bound-for-nsw-farmers/10113044

    You get a sense of the scale of the need – $500K provides only a fortnight’s worth of feed.

    This cost may be compared with $443.8 million dollars spent in a single day in June, and which is now sitting in term deposits, doing bupkiss.

  28. Greg Jennett said that, in a Coalition party room of ~100, there would only be about 12 who would vote against the NEG. So it should get through tomorrow. Despite the showboating of Barnaby and Tony.

  29. Maybe the Government could sequestrate the surplus feed stock assessed to be retained by farmers in non drought affected areas at cost of production, levy farmers in non drought affected non feed producing areas to cover transport costs, and provide the feed to drought affected areas at 25% below cost.

    That would be an agrarian socialist’s dream scenario, wouldn’t it?

  30. Fess
    “includes 1,000 tonnes of hay worth $500,000”

    One grower reckons those prices are ridiculous.
    Hay prices triple

    Mr Reid said he was worried some people were being taken advantage of.

    “I’ve had people ringing me up telling me stories that people put the price up on orders that are already there and say ‘Sorry, prices have gone up’,” he said.

    “[It’s] a bit hard to swallow because that person is in a bit of stress and finally [they] get a supply and then get told the price has gone up.

    “I’ve heard stories of $400 to $500 a tonne and it’s bloody ridiculous.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-08-03/hay-prices-triple-as-supplies-run-low/10067036

  31. Another big win for Wayne, I would say. All he wants is a reaction and you gave it to him. He’s laughing his head off right now.

  32. Paul Barratt@phbarratt
    50m50 minutes ago
    Back in the day when I administered Commonwealth financial assistance to the States for development projects we made a quarterly payment based on estimated expenditure for the quarter minus any amount carried forward.

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