Saturday smorgasbord

Details on two privately conducted polls, plus a stew of federal preselection news.

Two privately conducted ReachTEL polls from the past week to relate, followed by enough federal preselection news to choke on. Also note immediately below this the post on a new YouGov Galaxy state poll from Queensland. I should also observe that September 8 has been set as the date for the Wagga Wagga state by-election in New South Wales, to be held after Liberal member Daryl Maguire fell foul of the Independent Commission Against Corruption. It presumably won’t be contested by Labor and will probably be of interest only to locals, but Antony Green naturally has a guide up.

On with the show:

• The Guardian reports a poll conducted for the ACTU has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Other findings of the poll relate to wage rises, or the lack thereof: 47.6% reported not having received one in the past year, 32.9% said such as they had received did not cover the cost of living, and only 19.5% said their pay had improved in real terms. The poll was conducted on August 2 from a sample of 2453.

• Greenpeace has a Victoria only poll which, after exclusion of the 6.7% undecided, has the Coalition on 35.4% (compared with 41.8% at the 2016 election), Labor on 34.9% (35.6%), the Greens on an unlikely 18.6% (13.1%) and One Nation on 5.1%. Labor leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election. The poll was conducted July 30 from a sample of 1118.

The preselection news bonanza starts in Victoria, where internal party democracy has been having a rough time of it lately, with Labor’s national executive and the Liberal Party’s state administrative committee both taking over federal preselections to protect sitting members amid factional unrest.

• The Labor vacancy created by the retirement of Michael Danby in Macnamara, as Melbourne Ports will now be known, is set to be filled by one of his former staffers, Josh Burns. The seat is reserved to the Right under factional arrangements, and Burns prevailed in a factional ballot with 61 votes to 49 for Nick Dyrefurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre, and 16 for Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor (numbers related by Emma-Jayne Schenk of the Caulfield Glen Eira Leader). Delahunty called on the national executive to disregard the result, accusing Danby of hand-picking the attendees to the meeting and seeing that others were locked out, and complaining that 85% of those present were male.

• United Voice state secretary Jess Walsh will take second position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket after winning Socialist Left endorsement at the expense of incumbent Gavin Marshall. Marshall has been demoted to what is being described as an unwinnable position – number three according to the Herald Sun, though reports vary. The result is a defeat for Socialist Left powerbroker and Marshall ally Kim Carr, whose influence has diminished in the face of a new alliance between the Industrial Left and Right forces associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It also contradicts the justification for referring preselections to the national executive, which was to protect sitting members.

• The Herald Sun reports a factional deal has set up state upper house member Daniel Mulino to run in the new safe Labor seat of Fraser in western Melbourne, making his existing seat in Eastern Victoria available for Jane Garrett. This was supported by Bill Shorten, and bitterly opposed by Garrett’s foes in the United Firefighters Union. Garrett is backed by the Industrial Left, which has been determined to find her a new seat after she abandoned her existing berth of Brunswick, where she is under growing pressure from the Greens. Mulino is aligned with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association (although the internal politics of that union is a story unto itself), which was at first unhappy at losing influence within the state government, but has been mollified with the promise of an extra state seat.

• Jenny Macklin’s successor in Jagajaga, which is reserved to the Socialist Left, will be Kate Thwaites, a former staffer to Macklin, ABC journalist and, most recently, communications director at Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services. Thwaites won factional backing ahead of Sonja Terpstra, a local teacher and community activist.

• The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has rubber-stamped the preselections of all sitting federal MPs, ostensibly to prevent the party from being distracted in the lead-up to the November 29 state election. However, the real story by all accounts is that the dominant conservative faction wishes to protect Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who faced a challenge from Keith Wolahan, a former Blake Dawson lawyer who earlier served overseas with the Australian Defence Force.

Elsewhere:

• Matthew Killoran of The Courier-Mail reports five candidates are seeking preselection for a Queensland Senate position reserved to the Left, which is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore. The front runner by all accounts is Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt, who is backed by the CFMMEU. This is despite Green being based in Brisbane, and party rules reserving the spot for central or north Queensland (Green says she will move there if successful). Others in the field are Leanne Donaldson, who held the state seat of Bundaberg from 2015 until her defeat in 2017, and lost her position in cabinet when it emerged she had failed to pay nearly $8000 in council rates; Julie McGlone, Tourism Australia marketing executive; Tania Major, Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate; and Karin Campbell, an occupational health and safety consultant.

• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Georgina Downer, who for some reason wants to run in Mayo again, will face opposition from Reagan Garner, human resources manager for ReturnToWorkSA. However, Starick reports Downer is the “overwhelming favourite”.

• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports there are five nominees for Labor preselection in Canberra, where a vacancy is available as a result of the Australian Capital Territory’s House of Representatives seat entitlement increasing from two to three. They are John Falzon, chief executive of St Vincent de Paul; Kel Watt, a lobbyist for the greyhound racing industry; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; Simon Banks, managing director for lobbyists Hawker Britton; and Alicia Payne, who has worked as a staffer to Jenny Macklin, Bill Shorten and Lindsay Tanner. Falzon has been endorsed by the Left, Watt and Ingram are seeking endorsement from the Right, and Banks and Payne are unaligned. Falzon has been in the news lately after a picture emerged of him wearing a t-shirt with Lenin emblazoned on it, while Watt has been the target of a dirt sheet being circulated within the local party. The preselection process will be completed early next month.

• In South Australia, Labor will deal with the abolition of Port Adelaide by having the homeless Mark Butler run in Hindmarsh, and moving Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas to neighbouring Adelaide. The latter is being vacated by Kate Ellis, and has turned from a marginal to a fairly safe Labor seat as a result of the redistribution changes. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the deal involves a Senate seat being forfeited by the Left, of which Butler is a member, with the top two positions on the Senate ticket to be taken by the Right.

• Nathan Hondros of Fairfax reports Labor’s likely new candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hasluck in eastern Perth is James Martin, Mundaring Shire councillor and director of Marketech Ltd, a firm that develops stock market trading software. The position became vacant after the withdrawal of Lauren Palmer, an official with the Maritime Union of Australia, who cited health reasons. Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Martin is a member of the Progressive Left faction, which combines forces of the Right (the SDA, TWU and AWU) and Left (the MUA and CFMMEU).

• Luke Hartsuyker announced this week he will not seek another term in the mid north coast New South Wales seat of Cowper, which he has held for the Nationals since 2001. No word yet on who might succeed him as Nationals candidate, but Rob Oakeshott, who ran unsuccessfully against Hartsuyker in 2016, is not ruling out running again.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

892 comments on “Saturday smorgasbord”

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  3. If you go through the gbrf published accounts there are donations in kind for compliance audit type work of a substantial amount.

    Raises questions over how they treat such in counting donations and admin expenses.

  4. “Stop defending the indefensible. Setting low standards for politicians is part of the problem. The partisan whining from Labor loyalists on this issue is disappointing (albeit not surprising).”

    While right wingers get away this this: https://truecrimenewsweekly.com/shocking-australias-deputy-pm-barnaby-joyce-alleged-to-have-stalked-molested-teen-girl-and-young-woman/

    EDIT: Only allegations of course, albeit it with support by some credible people. And that’s the standard. Allegations are made against someone, hound them day and night until they’re driven out of their party, their position – unless the powers that be don’t want that to happen.

  5. poroti @ #7 Saturday, August 11th, 2018 – 7:18 am

    ANTONBRUCKNER11

    What are the chances, if Malcolm decides that reefgate will just grow (and drag in Lucy PM),

    Perhaps we should name our fearless leader PM Lucien Aye ?

    P
    I love it. It suggests a possible new business card for next years move to the Caymans:

    Lucien I. Soldlether-Jacket,
    Bankster to the Spiv Squatocracy.

  7. ANTONBRUCKNER11 says:
    Saturday, August 11, 2018 at 7:06 am
    What are the chances, if Malcolm decides that reefgate will just grow (and drag in Lucy PM), that he might rush off to the polls. Then there will be no qn of the fund repaying the money.

    I’ve been wondering about that. Is there any way that a newly elected Labor government could force the GBRF to return that money?

  8. Vomitous.

    In awarding the prize to Markson, the Kennedy Foundation judges wrote: “She has repeatedly set the national news agenda and shaken the political establishment with a series of big exclusives using sheer determination and careful cultivation of contacts to break from the pack.

    “Markson’s raft of stories which saw her voted Journalist of the Year included her fearless determination to expose the Deputy Prime Minister’s illicit affair and the subsequent political cover-up that has changed the face of Australian politics forever and will echo in the corridors of Parliament House for decades.”

    Markson was appointed The Daily Telegraph’s national political editor in September 2016 after serving as The Australian’s media editor where she became known for her aggressive pursuit of stories involving the ABC, Fairfax Media and broke the story around then Fairfax columnist Mike Carlton’s abusive tweets to members of the Jewish community, which eventually led to him leaving the company.

    https://mumbrella.com.au/sharri-markson-wins-kennedy-foundation-journalist-of-the-year-award-534832

  10. Husar welcome to politics and the old saying that your enemies aren’t those sitting across from you but behind you.

    Everyone stuffs up at times and most are given a fair go of another chance when their faults are explained. Many many a green manager including myself has been given the talk, counselling, advice, training, mentoring on how to manage staff.

    Sometimes you don’t see or know of these faults until the person is under pressure.

    To expect candidates to have faultless management skills and to expect parties to be able to spot and pick such candidates is dreaming stuff and goes against the idea of getting quality people with a wide range of experience.

    Sometimes the best managers are also pyscopaths.

  11. ANTONBRUCKNER11 says:
    Saturday, August 11, 2018 at 7:06 am
    What are the chances, if Malcolm decides that reefgate will just grow (and drag in Lucy PM), that he might rush off to the polls. Then there will be no qn of the fund repaying the money.

    I’ve been wondering about that. Is there any way that a newly elected Labor government could force the GBRF to return that money? returned?

    I’ve just read ahead and discovered that my question regarding the GBRF money has already been substantially addressed.

  14. Morning all. Thanks BK. Like Citizen I compliment this ABC article for reporting significant news that was not reported this week: industry super funds got no criticism from the RC. CBUS was scheduled to appear, submitted its paperwork, and was then told “ok no need for you to show up”. This completely destroys government arguments for independent directors.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-11/banking-royal-commission-roasts-nab-retail-super-funds/10107012

  15. Steve777
    Essentialy yes and it should be saluted when it is on, failure to do do will result in being banned from public transport.

  16. If you’ve got no track record, like this govt, you desperately want something to run AGAINST. That’s all they know how to do. Find an enemy. I really won’t be surprised if the NEG schemozzle falls over and Malcolm decides to pull the pin and head for an election, banking on his ability to keep screaming “black-out” for the next four weeks.

  19. I’m sorry but it is absurd to say that psychopaths make good managers. The only perspective that could believe that is one that doesn’t fully account for the damage that such people do to those under their control.

  21. Bernard Keane‏Verified account @BernardKeane · 2h2 hours ago

    Fascinated by the number of senior journalists who think 1. the NEG is actually a policy rather than a political fix for the Liberals’ climate denialism and 2. that a decade of policy conflict on climate action should be ended with surrender to denialism.

    ….

    simon holmes à court‏ @simonahac · 17m17 minutes ago

    yes, everyone advocating for passing of the current NEG is motivated by politics, strategy, ignorance or fatigue.

    i’m looking for anyone who’s looked under the hood who honestly reckons it’s good policy or that it’ll do what’s written on the tin.

  22. Fascinated by the number of senior journalists who think 1. the NEG is actually a policy rather than a political fix for the Liberals’ climate denialism and 2. that a decade of policy conflict on climate action should be ended with surrender to denialism.

    Finally a journalist stating things the way they actually are instead of getting caught up in the theatre!

  24. I think this guy might have problems other than the squirrel.

    German police rescue man being chased by baby squirrel

    Police in the German city of Karlsruhe have rushed to help a man being followed by a baby squirrel after he made an emergency call, saying the little creature would not let him go.

    “Help, I am being pursued by a squirrel,” the man told Karlsruhe police emergency services.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-11/german-police-rescue-man-being-chased-by-baby-squirrel/10108844

  25. Abbott18 – egged on rapturously by the conflict merchants of the disrupted media landscape, prowling the national affairs terrain like it’s hunting time in the zombie apocalypse – wants to go full Trump: build new coal fired power stations, abolish what’s left of the renewable energy target and withdraw from the Paris accord.

    Federal Labor, keen to stand on Turnbull’s throat because #politics, and some of the progressive stakeholders running around trying to kill the Neg because they imagine the return of a beefed up renewable energy target in some future fantasy parliament – might want to bear that prospect in mind.

    Unlike Bernard Keane and Simon Holmes a Court, K Murphy seems to think that the NEG really is the best policy we will ever get.

    I think she is assuming the Coalition will win the next Federal election, and saying something like “if the Labor states trash the NEG then we will have a lot worse than that PM Lucian Aye to deal with, and it will be all Labor’s fault.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/11/abbott-goes-full-trump-as-coalition-tries-out-election-strategies?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

  26. Psychopaths often make good CEOs but they make very poor managers.
    Husar was let down by the Labor party by poor management, as well as the nasty stuff later. She obviously had significant faults but nothing was done to manage the problem by her superiors. Finance let down her employees as well. No one looks good after this.

  27. Was going to comment on the guardian but see that my comments are now “pre-moderate”. KM isn’t as silly as I thought.

  29. And if you think some women have it rough here, we have nothing on Japan where medical schools have admitted to reducing females entrance exam marks by 20% to keep the number of women doctors under 30%. In Australia, about 55% of medical students are female.
    “Unknown to Miyauchi, the university’s authorities had put another barrier in her way. She is one of an unknown number of young women whose test scores the school deliberately marked down to prevent them entering a career in medicine and ensure more men became doctors.”

  30. It appears the Daily ToiletPaper did a ReachTEL in Lindsay, details are sketchy;

    ‘Exclusive polling published today shows it’s hit support for Labor, which has tanked to losing 42 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

    The ReachTel poll of 630 Lindsay residents shows a 10 per cent decline in first preference votes for Labor since the 2016 election, mostly shifting to One Nation.’

  32. Dave Donovan‏ @davrosz · 3m3 minutes ago

    Sharri Markson wins Kennedy Journalist of the Year prize for scoop that had already been reported months before. Welcome to Australian journalism!

  33. Has it occurred to anybody that the whole concept of electing “managers” to parliament is a recipe for mediocrity and poor governance.

    Almost by definition a manager is a good compromiser – the sort of person who works well with many is reasonably (but not too much so) empathetic and has views and ideas rougly the same as the staff they work with ie fairly mainstream. A manager must be a “well governed” personality – not too passionate and able to keep a temper in order. Their family members need also to be pretty much the same. even an annoying 12 year old who visits the office a lot can reduce the “managerial” capacity of people.

    Now we need Managers, but I suggest that they belong in the public service – providing well balance well thought through advice to MPs in which all sides of an issue are addressed and a “balanced” compromise position forms the final recommendation.

    However politicians are paid to lead not manage. We want people with ideas that challenge the mainstream, that test judgement that are new and innovative. We want people to be passionate, angry, committed and ideological. We do NOT want the girl next door or the nice boy over the road.

    We want politician who are leaders NOT managers. Very, very ,very occasionally someone is both a leader and a manager, but not often. Winston Churchill was a great leader in WWII but a lousy manager. Neither Hawke, nor Whitlam and definitely not Keating would have been revered as “managers”. They had ideas and were leaders but managers – NEVER.

    I have not been following this Husar case much but i can smell something very, very, very rotten.

  36. This Murphy article is utter crap …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/11/abbott-goes-full-trump-as-coalition-tries-out-election-strategies

    After pointing out how dire all the options are for the Coalition, instead of conceding that Labor is looking like a possibly good alternative – even if only by comparison – she concludes …

    All pretty grim, isn’t it?

    While the Coalition wrestles with itself and the face it wants to present to voters, Labor is not without its challenges.

    Exactly what challenges is not explained. Instead, she then goes on with …

    The positive result in the super Saturday byelections has put Shorten in a comfortable position as parliament returns, when a different result would have created combustible internal pressure that would just be erupting now.

    She apparently can’t accept that there is any positive outcome on the horizon – she seems to believe implicitly that a Labor victory would be as bad or worse worse than the worst Coalition victory. She is also still grimly hanging onto her “Kill Bill” fantasies, in defiance of reality – “if only things were different, Bill would have been a goner!”

    It is unbelievable that she can continue to hold the post of “Political Editor” when she is clearly so partisan that she apparently can’t even see her own bias. Or perhaps simply doesn’t care.

    I chuckle every time I get to the bottom of one of her articles and see the obligatory “since you’re here … please donate …etc etc …” message. Yeah, sure – when you get a decent political editor I’ll consider it!

  37. Emma Husar was betrayed by the NSW Labor machine. A novice MP, single mother of 3 kids, DV survivor…the party should have surrounded her with experienced professionals. It did not. With the train wreck result we now have. Major fail. https://t.co/kBMHDVrenJ— Mike Carlton (@MikeCarlton01) August 10, 2018

    I agree with Carlton’s summation. A Labor train wreck.

  38. Our great LNP will win the next election and our great PM Malcom Turnbull will be returned as our PM for another Three years and Bill Shorten will be dump as as labor leader and Chris Bowen will replace him as labor leader and still will not be able to win in three years time as our great Australian people do not trust the labor party to run the country as the spend like drunken sailors and let people smugglers start there trade again which we will see death at sea again…only Our great LNP will stop the people smugglers and also stop the spending

  39. However politicians are paid to lead not manage.

    They don’t need to be great managers but they can’t be terrible managers. Calling the staff who report to you “c**ts” and violating boundaries between personal and professional tasks without proper attention to what is ethical and reasonable in that area falls far short of satisfactory.

  41. Player One @ #85 Saturday, August 11th, 2018 – 10:39 am

    This Murphy article is utter crap …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/11/abbott-goes-full-trump-as-coalition-tries-out-election-strategies

    After pointing out how dire all the options are for the Coalition, instead of conceding that Labor is looking like a possibly good alternative – even if only by comparison – she concludes …

    All pretty grim, isn’t it?

    While the Coalition wrestles with itself and the face it wants to present to voters, Labor is not without its challenges.

    Exactly what challenges is not explained. Instead, she then goes on with …

    The positive result in the super Saturday byelections has put Shorten in a comfortable position as parliament returns, when a different result would have created combustible internal pressure that would just be erupting now.

    She apparently can’t accept that there is any positive outcome on the horizon – she seems to believe implicitly that a Labor victory would be as bad or worse worse than the worst Coalition victory. She is also still grimly hanging onto her “Kill Bill” fantasies, in defiance of reality – “if only things were different, Bill would have been a goner!”

    It is unbelievable that she can continue to hold the post of “Political Editor” when she is clearly so partisan that she apparently can’t even see her own bias. Or perhaps simply doesn’t care.

    I chuckle every time I get to the bottom of one of her articles and see the obligatory “since you’re here … please donate …etc etc …” message. Yeah, sure – when you get a decent political editor I’ll consider it!

    Labor partisans just won’t acknowledge that Shortens standing in the community is a challenge for Labor.

  42. Rex Douglas @ #91 Saturday, August 11th, 2018 – 10:48 am

    Labor partisans just won’t acknowledge that Shortens standing in the community is a challenge for Labor.

    As the recent by-elections clearly demonstrated, eh Rex?

    Has it never occurred to you that the flip side of the nonsense you spout is that Mal clearly deserves be PM forever, because he’s so much more popular?

  43. CEOs – and other managers – often get staff to run personal errands for them. And an electoral office creates dirty dishes; someone has to wash them up.

    The MP is being paid far more by the taxpayer than the staffer. It makes thus makes sense (economically) for the staffer do take as many burdens off the MP as they can, so the MP can use their time in the most effective manner.

  45. zoomster @ #92 Saturday, August 11th, 2018 – 10:54 am

    CEOs – and other managers – often get staff to run personal errands for them. And an electoral office creates dirty dishes; someone has to wash them up.

    The MP is being paid far more by the taxpayer than the staffer. It makes thus makes sense (economically) for the staffer do take as many burdens off the MP as they can, so the MP can use their time in the most effective manner.

    A backbencher is on about $200k – more than enough to pay someone to take care of a few personal errands. Putting it on the taxpayer is indefensible.

  47. Rex

    I think you mean NSW is wreck.

    NSW Greens
    NSW LNP
    NSW Labor

    NSW Greens recent female problems.
    NSW LNP fascist right.
    NSW Labor hasn’t changed abit.

  50. According to Danielle Wood of the Grattan Institute, a person whose taxable income is $183,000 is in the top 3 percent of all tax-filers. A person whose taxable income is $209,000 is in the top 2 percent of all tax-filers.

    Backbench MPs are very well-paid. Their taxable income is greater than that of 97 or 98 percent of all Australians who file a tax return. That high pay comes with certain responsibilities such as using public funds properly and not verbally abusing your staff.

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