Saturday smorgasbord

Details on two privately conducted polls, plus a stew of federal preselection news.

Two privately conducted ReachTEL polls from the past week to relate, followed by enough federal preselection news to choke on. Also note immediately below this the post on a new YouGov Galaxy state poll from Queensland. I should also observe that September 8 has been set as the date for the Wagga Wagga state by-election in New South Wales, to be held after Liberal member Daryl Maguire fell foul of the Independent Commission Against Corruption. It presumably won’t be contested by Labor and will probably be of interest only to locals, but Antony Green naturally has a guide up.

On with the show:

• The Guardian reports a poll conducted for the ACTU has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Other findings of the poll relate to wage rises, or the lack thereof: 47.6% reported not having received one in the past year, 32.9% said such as they had received did not cover the cost of living, and only 19.5% said their pay had improved in real terms. The poll was conducted on August 2 from a sample of 2453.

• Greenpeace has a Victoria only poll which, after exclusion of the 6.7% undecided, has the Coalition on 35.4% (compared with 41.8% at the 2016 election), Labor on 34.9% (35.6%), the Greens on an unlikely 18.6% (13.1%) and One Nation on 5.1%. Labor leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election. The poll was conducted July 30 from a sample of 1118.

The preselection news bonanza starts in Victoria, where internal party democracy has been having a rough time of it lately, with Labor’s national executive and the Liberal Party’s state administrative committee both taking over federal preselections to protect sitting members amid factional unrest.

• The Labor vacancy created by the retirement of Michael Danby in Macnamara, as Melbourne Ports will now be known, is set to be filled by one of his former staffers, Josh Burns. The seat is reserved to the Right under factional arrangements, and Burns prevailed in a factional ballot with 61 votes to 49 for Nick Dyrefurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre, and 16 for Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor (numbers related by Emma-Jayne Schenk of the Caulfield Glen Eira Leader). Delahunty called on the national executive to disregard the result, accusing Danby of hand-picking the attendees to the meeting and seeing that others were locked out, and complaining that 85% of those present were male.

• United Voice state secretary Jess Walsh will take second position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket after winning Socialist Left endorsement at the expense of incumbent Gavin Marshall. Marshall has been demoted to what is being described as an unwinnable position – number three according to the Herald Sun, though reports vary. The result is a defeat for Socialist Left powerbroker and Marshall ally Kim Carr, whose influence has diminished in the face of a new alliance between the Industrial Left and Right forces associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It also contradicts the justification for referring preselections to the national executive, which was to protect sitting members.

• The Herald Sun reports a factional deal has set up state upper house member Daniel Mulino to run in the new safe Labor seat of Fraser in western Melbourne, making his existing seat in Eastern Victoria available for Jane Garrett. This was supported by Bill Shorten, and bitterly opposed by Garrett’s foes in the United Firefighters Union. Garrett is backed by the Industrial Left, which has been determined to find her a new seat after she abandoned her existing berth of Brunswick, where she is under growing pressure from the Greens. Mulino is aligned with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association (although the internal politics of that union is a story unto itself), which was at first unhappy at losing influence within the state government, but has been mollified with the promise of an extra state seat.

• Jenny Macklin’s successor in Jagajaga, which is reserved to the Socialist Left, will be Kate Thwaites, a former staffer to Macklin, ABC journalist and, most recently, communications director at Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services. Thwaites won factional backing ahead of Sonja Terpstra, a local teacher and community activist.

• The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has rubber-stamped the preselections of all sitting federal MPs, ostensibly to prevent the party from being distracted in the lead-up to the November 29 state election. However, the real story by all accounts is that the dominant conservative faction wishes to protect Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who faced a challenge from Keith Wolahan, a former Blake Dawson lawyer who earlier served overseas with the Australian Defence Force.

Elsewhere:

• Matthew Killoran of The Courier-Mail reports five candidates are seeking preselection for a Queensland Senate position reserved to the Left, which is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore. The front runner by all accounts is Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt, who is backed by the CFMMEU. This is despite Green being based in Brisbane, and party rules reserving the spot for central or north Queensland (Green says she will move there if successful). Others in the field are Leanne Donaldson, who held the state seat of Bundaberg from 2015 until her defeat in 2017, and lost her position in cabinet when it emerged she had failed to pay nearly $8000 in council rates; Julie McGlone, Tourism Australia marketing executive; Tania Major, Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate; and Karin Campbell, an occupational health and safety consultant.

• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Georgina Downer, who for some reason wants to run in Mayo again, will face opposition from Reagan Garner, human resources manager for ReturnToWorkSA. However, Starick reports Downer is the “overwhelming favourite”.

• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports there are five nominees for Labor preselection in Canberra, where a vacancy is available as a result of the Australian Capital Territory’s House of Representatives seat entitlement increasing from two to three. They are John Falzon, chief executive of St Vincent de Paul; Kel Watt, a lobbyist for the greyhound racing industry; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; Simon Banks, managing director for lobbyists Hawker Britton; and Alicia Payne, who has worked as a staffer to Jenny Macklin, Bill Shorten and Lindsay Tanner. Falzon has been endorsed by the Left, Watt and Ingram are seeking endorsement from the Right, and Banks and Payne are unaligned. Falzon has been in the news lately after a picture emerged of him wearing a t-shirt with Lenin emblazoned on it, while Watt has been the target of a dirt sheet being circulated within the local party. The preselection process will be completed early next month.

• In South Australia, Labor will deal with the abolition of Port Adelaide by having the homeless Mark Butler run in Hindmarsh, and moving Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas to neighbouring Adelaide. The latter is being vacated by Kate Ellis, and has turned from a marginal to a fairly safe Labor seat as a result of the redistribution changes. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the deal involves a Senate seat being forfeited by the Left, of which Butler is a member, with the top two positions on the Senate ticket to be taken by the Right.

• Nathan Hondros of Fairfax reports Labor’s likely new candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hasluck in eastern Perth is James Martin, Mundaring Shire councillor and director of Marketech Ltd, a firm that develops stock market trading software. The position became vacant after the withdrawal of Lauren Palmer, an official with the Maritime Union of Australia, who cited health reasons. Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Martin is a member of the Progressive Left faction, which combines forces of the Right (the SDA, TWU and AWU) and Left (the MUA and CFMMEU).

• Luke Hartsuyker announced this week he will not seek another term in the mid north coast New South Wales seat of Cowper, which he has held for the Nationals since 2001. No word yet on who might succeed him as Nationals candidate, but Rob Oakeshott, who ran unsuccessfully against Hartsuyker in 2016, is not ruling out running again.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

892 comments on “Saturday smorgasbord”

Comments Page 17 of 18
1 … 16 17 18

  3. WB
    Deflecttion?
    You can’t possibly be putting the case that Attlee did anything at all about stopping the communal massacres in British Colonial India using British troops while he was the Prime Minister of Britain. By reducing British troop numbers in colonial India, he did the opposite.

  5. We’re actually fundamentally in agreement, BW. I too think the British had an open-ended obligation to keep order in India — they were, as you stated on the previous page, quite superb at doing so. Indeed, they should still be there right now.

  7. Given Parliament sits this week, yes we are on Newspoll watch.

    Re. The NEG, I think the passage of legalization for SSM is a good model. It will pass more or less unchanged, but there will be a side deal, before the next election there will be an announcement on funding for a new coal power station, presumably in Queensland.

  9. zoomster @ #796 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 7:19 pm

    dtt

    I have told you repeatedly – foreign donations are prohibited under US law.

    ‘Foreign nationals
    Campaigns may not solicit or accept contributions from foreign nationals. Federal law prohibits contributions, donations, expenditures and disbursements solicited, directed, received or made directly or indirectly by or from foreign nationals in connection with any election — federal, state or local. This prohibition includes contributions or donations made to political committees and building funds and to make electioneering communications. Furthermore, it is a violation of federal law to knowingly provide substantial assistance in the making, acceptance or receipt of contributions or donations in connection with federal and nonfederal elections to a political committee, or for the purchase or construction of an office building. This prohibition includes, but is not limited to, acting as a conduit or intermediary for foreign national contributions and donations.’

    https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/who-can-and-cant-contribute/

    Zoomster

    If I swore blind I had never parked my car illegally would you believe me? What if the people donating are dual citizens? If you really believe that no funding ever gets to candidates from foreign sources I have a bridge to sell you. It is pretty – big arch and just near the Sydney Opera House.

    There are corporate donations which basically fund ALL election campaigns in the US. Maybe they channel the cash through a “citizen” but the money will still come from someone and there will be favours in return.

    Crikey there was Irish money headed towards the Kennedys and probably Saudi money headed towards the Bushes. I would hazard a guess that there has been a bit of Chinese money splashed about too.

    TPOF @ #797 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 7:20 pm

    Gee DTT

    My guess is that you are a paid provocateur from Russia. Just a guess. No evidence other than the dirt under the nail of my little toe.

    Seriously, these are not guesses but utter prejudices.

    And people like you are Netanyahu’s best friend – because you – and the racist criminals who wrote that blog you linked to – support Netanyahu’s position that Jewish people will never be secure unless they control their own security in their own land and that what happens to the Palestinians is unfortunate but necessary.

    Well my guess is that you are a Zionist grouper, who supports mass murder of Palestinians. Just a guess you see.

    Get a grip TPOF. Why is it that even the merest hint of saying that Israel is a bit naughty has you and others wetting your panties.

    It is OK to call white South South Africa an Apartheid hell hole but we must not say it about Israels. We can scream blue murder about Crimea but what is a little Golan heights amongst friends. Human rights abuses is a gay is spoken to unkindly in Russia but lets kill 100 Gazan children before breakfast. Warsaw ghetto was evil, but Gazan ghetto is good for humanity. You know it makes sense..

  10. DTT

    You know it makes sense..
    _____________________

    ….only on the antisemitic websites you frequent and then back away from with astonishing mendacity.

  11. before the next election there will be an announcement on funding for a new coal power station, presumably in Queensland.

    Could happen. It’s not like Trumble could really make himself look any more ridiculous after all.

  12. One of the ways the British controlled India so long was that they created division between Hindus and Muslims, and also between the lighter skinned north and the darker south (not allowed in the army). Many of India’s (and Pakistan’s) problems stem from imperialist rule. Not to forget such things as the British imposed genocide in Bengal, and death penalties for Indians consuming their own salt and not English imported salt. Yeah, the Poms were great for India. What a…

  15. Bupkis on the rain front for the next week in Sydney. Again. 🙁

    #WeatheronPB

    Could the Taswegians send us some of their wet and windy winter?

    #specialpleadingonPB

  18. C@t:

    I’m with you on the rain. I know I might have whinged about our rain, hail and snow the last week, but this part of the country (like others) really does need the wet weather.

    #weatheronPB

  20. WB
    ‘We’re actually fundamentally in agreement, BW. I too think the British had an open-ended obligation to keep order in India — they were, as you stated on the previous page, quite superb at doing so. Indeed, they should still be there right now.’
    Nice try at sarcasm but still no potato.
    Who said anything about ‘open-ended’? Not me.
    It is good that we are in such furious agreement that, having assumed the White Man’s Burder, the British should have kept order to the best of their abilities until Independence. This was my original point. Attlee could have done much, much more than he did. The result of his lack of Attlee’s will in the matter was massacre after massacre after massacre between Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims.
    As British Prime Minister, Attlee was directly responsible for this, which was also my original point.
    Again, it was not as if Attlee did not know exactly what was happening. Viceroy Mountbatten kept him fully informed. As did the world’s press.
    Meanwhile, Churchill, who as Leader of the Opposition might have kept Attlee accountable for the massacres, could not give a stuff about the massacres either. After all, he was the one who had rejected repeated and desperate pleas from Wavell to release food stocks to feed well over a million starving Indians in Bengal only a couple of years earlier.

  21. By the way, as for this:

    “Warsaw ghetto was evil, but Gazan ghetto is good for humanity.”

    In the Warsaw Ghetto 400,000 people were either murdered in situ or taken to Treblinka and murdered on the spot there. These people were murdered for no other reason whatsoever than their ethnicity. There was no violence towards the Germans until a futile effort at the very end of the liquidation.

    I don’t believe that any event excuses any other, but the triteness of comparing what is happening in Hamas controlled Gaza is sickening and shows you up to be a disgusting person. Put another way, your stupidly histrionic killing of 100 Gazan children before breakfast was the reality during the second world war.

    Earlier this evening I saw a documentary about Hitler’s rail system and noted that the crematoria could dispose of 4,500 people’s bodies per day. That’s per day! For you, though, it’s just a cheap number (which you probably think was invented by the Rothschilds anyway to justify the establishment of Israel) that you can use to attack anyone who sees the Middle East as more nuanced than you.

  22. Ven,
    “WB@7#38pm
    Are you serious or are you mocking BW?”

    Maybe Mr B has applied for a job at Johnny Howard’s Western ‘Civilisation’ Centre.

  25. Tonight Newspoll will be 50/50 and next one after that will have our great LNP leading 51/49 and our great PM mine think about calling an election for October

  27. The NEG is designed to pave the way for a new Coal fired PS (perhaps with a covert subsidy). That is not a guess.

    However, Reefgate may have put a spanner in the works. That’s why Slinky is looking so sad. Somehow, they have to bury reefgate before a new Coal fired PS becomes widespread knowledge – especially it there is a wiff of subsidy or loan guarantee.

  30. Thanks for the good oil, Wayne. I don’t have to wait up for Newspoll tonight, then.

    Wayne: “Tonight Newspoll will be 50/50 and next one after that will have our great LNP leading 51/49 and our great PM mine think about calling an election for October”

  34. My guess for NewsP: 2PP 51/49; any change in primaries well within MOE; any change in PPM within the MOE; and change to netsats for Turnbull and Shorten within the MOE.

  35. You really must be bored waiting for Newspoll, to be responding to dtt’s witless maundering. (as much as I respect TPOF’s valiant efforts to point out the vile undercurrents in it).

  37. our great PM mine think about calling an election for October

    I hope he does. October 2018 (the 13th to be exact) has been my pick for election date since last election.

  38. TPOF @ #820 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 8:00 pm

    By the way, as for this:

    “Warsaw ghetto was evil, but Gazan ghetto is good for humanity.”

    In the Warsaw Ghetto 400,000 people were either murdered in situ or taken to Treblinka and murdered on the spot there. These people were murdered for no other reason whatsoever than their ethnicity. There was no violence towards the Germans until a futile effort at the very end of the liquidation.

    I don’t believe that any event excuses any other, but the triteness of comparing what is happening in Hamas controlled Gaza is sickening and shows you up to be a disgusting person. Put another way, your stupidly histrionic killing of 100 Gazan children before breakfast was the reality during the second world war.

    Earlier this evening I saw a documentary about Hitler’s rail system and noted that the crematoria could dispose of 4,500 people’s bodies per day. That’s per day! For you, though, it’s just a cheap number (which you probably think was invented by the Rothschilds anyway to justify the establishment of Israel) that you can use to attack anyone who sees the Middle East as more nuanced than you.

    TPOF
    A ghetto is a ghetto. You are being hysterical and obfuscating by mentioning Treblinka. No one is discussing Treblinka or gas chambers.

    In any case one you remove the method of their deaths, when you add up the number of Gazans killed either directly by bombing, or from lack of health care etc (which was also a major factor in the Nazi camps) you may not find that it falls much short of 400,000. Sure it over a much longer tome frame but a death is a death. NO I AM NO going to do the numbers, but you should take the blinkers off

    Sine 1942-5 there have been many, many atrocities in this world leading to death of millions. I would have much more patience with those who are constantly reminding us of the horror of the NAZI death camps if they just occasionally extended their compassion to others. The Sri Lankan massacre for example, Rwanda of course, the starvation and cholera of many in Yemen that the US is supporting, the loss of electricity, fuel and water for Gazans, the death of many in Iraq as a result of lies.

  43. In terms of “keeping order” just after the end of WW2 in Indonesia, the British commander actually used Japanese troops for this purpose – for a short while anyway. I think the idea was that the old colonial ways, once the Dutch had got themselves sorted out as well as the Brits, was for more of the same…………………….As late as 1950 the Nederland liner Oranje was still bringing Dutch nationals to Indonesia. This ship was eventually renamed Angelina Lauro and was on the Italy-Australia run into the 1960s.

  46. As this appears to be a light night…

    Please lay off Wayne. Wayne provides an important service to this blog by reporting on the dearest goals of the LNP. Wayne is insightful, erudite. And great.

  48. Wayne is clearly either a troll trying to get a rise out of you lot, or a sock puppet of one of you to act as a conservative parody/straw man. No point seriously engaging them.

Comments Page 17 of 18
1 … 16 17 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *