Saturday smorgasbord

Details on two privately conducted polls, plus a stew of federal preselection news.

Two privately conducted ReachTEL polls from the past week to relate, followed by enough federal preselection news to choke on. Also note immediately below this the post on a new YouGov Galaxy state poll from Queensland. I should also observe that September 8 has been set as the date for the Wagga Wagga state by-election in New South Wales, to be held after Liberal member Daryl Maguire fell foul of the Independent Commission Against Corruption. It presumably won’t be contested by Labor and will probably be of interest only to locals, but Antony Green naturally has a guide up.

On with the show:

• The Guardian reports a poll conducted for the ACTU has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Other findings of the poll relate to wage rises, or the lack thereof: 47.6% reported not having received one in the past year, 32.9% said such as they had received did not cover the cost of living, and only 19.5% said their pay had improved in real terms. The poll was conducted on August 2 from a sample of 2453.

• Greenpeace has a Victoria only poll which, after exclusion of the 6.7% undecided, has the Coalition on 35.4% (compared with 41.8% at the 2016 election), Labor on 34.9% (35.6%), the Greens on an unlikely 18.6% (13.1%) and One Nation on 5.1%. Labor leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election. The poll was conducted July 30 from a sample of 1118.

The preselection news bonanza starts in Victoria, where internal party democracy has been having a rough time of it lately, with Labor’s national executive and the Liberal Party’s state administrative committee both taking over federal preselections to protect sitting members amid factional unrest.

• The Labor vacancy created by the retirement of Michael Danby in Macnamara, as Melbourne Ports will now be known, is set to be filled by one of his former staffers, Josh Burns. The seat is reserved to the Right under factional arrangements, and Burns prevailed in a factional ballot with 61 votes to 49 for Nick Dyrefurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre, and 16 for Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor (numbers related by Emma-Jayne Schenk of the Caulfield Glen Eira Leader). Delahunty called on the national executive to disregard the result, accusing Danby of hand-picking the attendees to the meeting and seeing that others were locked out, and complaining that 85% of those present were male.

• United Voice state secretary Jess Walsh will take second position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket after winning Socialist Left endorsement at the expense of incumbent Gavin Marshall. Marshall has been demoted to what is being described as an unwinnable position – number three according to the Herald Sun, though reports vary. The result is a defeat for Socialist Left powerbroker and Marshall ally Kim Carr, whose influence has diminished in the face of a new alliance between the Industrial Left and Right forces associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It also contradicts the justification for referring preselections to the national executive, which was to protect sitting members.

• The Herald Sun reports a factional deal has set up state upper house member Daniel Mulino to run in the new safe Labor seat of Fraser in western Melbourne, making his existing seat in Eastern Victoria available for Jane Garrett. This was supported by Bill Shorten, and bitterly opposed by Garrett’s foes in the United Firefighters Union. Garrett is backed by the Industrial Left, which has been determined to find her a new seat after she abandoned her existing berth of Brunswick, where she is under growing pressure from the Greens. Mulino is aligned with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association (although the internal politics of that union is a story unto itself), which was at first unhappy at losing influence within the state government, but has been mollified with the promise of an extra state seat.

• Jenny Macklin’s successor in Jagajaga, which is reserved to the Socialist Left, will be Kate Thwaites, a former staffer to Macklin, ABC journalist and, most recently, communications director at Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services. Thwaites won factional backing ahead of Sonja Terpstra, a local teacher and community activist.

• The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has rubber-stamped the preselections of all sitting federal MPs, ostensibly to prevent the party from being distracted in the lead-up to the November 29 state election. However, the real story by all accounts is that the dominant conservative faction wishes to protect Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who faced a challenge from Keith Wolahan, a former Blake Dawson lawyer who earlier served overseas with the Australian Defence Force.

Elsewhere:

• Matthew Killoran of The Courier-Mail reports five candidates are seeking preselection for a Queensland Senate position reserved to the Left, which is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore. The front runner by all accounts is Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt, who is backed by the CFMMEU. This is despite Green being based in Brisbane, and party rules reserving the spot for central or north Queensland (Green says she will move there if successful). Others in the field are Leanne Donaldson, who held the state seat of Bundaberg from 2015 until her defeat in 2017, and lost her position in cabinet when it emerged she had failed to pay nearly $8000 in council rates; Julie McGlone, Tourism Australia marketing executive; Tania Major, Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate; and Karin Campbell, an occupational health and safety consultant.

• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Georgina Downer, who for some reason wants to run in Mayo again, will face opposition from Reagan Garner, human resources manager for ReturnToWorkSA. However, Starick reports Downer is the “overwhelming favourite”.

• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports there are five nominees for Labor preselection in Canberra, where a vacancy is available as a result of the Australian Capital Territory’s House of Representatives seat entitlement increasing from two to three. They are John Falzon, chief executive of St Vincent de Paul; Kel Watt, a lobbyist for the greyhound racing industry; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; Simon Banks, managing director for lobbyists Hawker Britton; and Alicia Payne, who has worked as a staffer to Jenny Macklin, Bill Shorten and Lindsay Tanner. Falzon has been endorsed by the Left, Watt and Ingram are seeking endorsement from the Right, and Banks and Payne are unaligned. Falzon has been in the news lately after a picture emerged of him wearing a t-shirt with Lenin emblazoned on it, while Watt has been the target of a dirt sheet being circulated within the local party. The preselection process will be completed early next month.

• In South Australia, Labor will deal with the abolition of Port Adelaide by having the homeless Mark Butler run in Hindmarsh, and moving Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas to neighbouring Adelaide. The latter is being vacated by Kate Ellis, and has turned from a marginal to a fairly safe Labor seat as a result of the redistribution changes. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the deal involves a Senate seat being forfeited by the Left, of which Butler is a member, with the top two positions on the Senate ticket to be taken by the Right.

• Nathan Hondros of Fairfax reports Labor’s likely new candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hasluck in eastern Perth is James Martin, Mundaring Shire councillor and director of Marketech Ltd, a firm that develops stock market trading software. The position became vacant after the withdrawal of Lauren Palmer, an official with the Maritime Union of Australia, who cited health reasons. Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Martin is a member of the Progressive Left faction, which combines forces of the Right (the SDA, TWU and AWU) and Left (the MUA and CFMMEU).

• Luke Hartsuyker announced this week he will not seek another term in the mid north coast New South Wales seat of Cowper, which he has held for the Nationals since 2001. No word yet on who might succeed him as Nationals candidate, but Rob Oakeshott, who ran unsuccessfully against Hartsuyker in 2016, is not ruling out running again.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

892 comments on “Saturday smorgasbord”

Comments Page 14 of 18
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  4. I saw the Divynls several times, Chrissies presence was amazing.
    Another excellent Sydney live band was Hunters and Collectors, with the the trumpet and trombone…

  6. Once upon a time a bureaucrat said “Perhaps we could fund some more environmental work on the GBR” and today Prime Minister Lucien Aye will claim ” See a bureaucrat made me offer half a billion to a small group who were not even seeking money. Made me give it without due diligence or normal procedures. etc etc” 🙁

  7. Someone in comments at The Guardian said that it suits turnbull to have Abbott sniping at him. And turnbull is following Abbott’s policy agenda

    ______________________________

    Dead right. The biggest thing going for Turnbull at the moment is not boats or NEG or African gangs. It’s the fear of a return to Abbott. Of course, when a real election rolls around, people will have the choice of ditching Turnbull without bringing Abbott back as PM.

  8. “Oh the flame trees”

    In another life, a long time ago, I used to play in a band that did a cover of flame trees. It was a really stripped back version, but as it is such a good song its fundamentals held up to our treatment.

  9. When are the Groupers on here going to get around to labeling Sanders as a an anti Semite?

    I dunno but it’s clearly after the Kindy Left calls everyone who doesn’t 100% march in lockstep with their views “Groupers”

  10. P1 @ 1.11pm

    I went looking and found this on Snopes about what Mencken actually wrote:

    “The larger the mob, the harder the test. In small areas, before small electorates, a first-rate man occasionally fights his way through, carrying even the mob with him by force of his personality. But when the field is nationwide, and the fight must be waged chiefly at second and third hand, and the force of personality cannot so readily make itself felt, then all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.

    “The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

    Note the last sentence has been changed by others. Nevertheless, he is still prophetic. Mind you, he wrote that just before the worst President prior to W was elected – Warren Harding.

  12. My favourite live band was Jimmy and the boys.

    There are no words that would properly describe what their live performances were like.

    Cheers.

  15. Insiders brought reefgate into the mainstream political debate today; Niki and JoshFrydenberg combined could defend it.

    Put a fork in them; they are done.

  16. ‘Josh Frydenberg says $444m reef grant ‘not unusual”

    So can he point to any other grants of that amount of money from a government, or even an amount close to it, that was given out in the same way as that was?

    I’m guessing the answer would be a resounding ‘No’.

  18. If we’re going live Aussie bands, that could also cut it on record, my vote goes to Paul Kelly and the Coloured Girls. So hot they could melt bitumen!

  19. Unusal is something that doesn’t happen often.
    Unique is something that has never happened before and won’t happen ever again.

    So the Hungarian National is right. The Reef Rort wasn’t unusual.

  20. Frydenberg did not say whose idea it was. Frydenberg did not say when the decision was made. Frydenberg did not say why CSIRO, GBRUMPA, AIMs OR his OWN Department could not do a better job.
    Frydenberg could NOT explain why, for a six year program, the whole $444 million had to be handed over in one cheque.
    Sensationally, Cassidy did NOT ask Frydenberg why global warming, which has killed half the Reef already, was NOT mentioned in the 100 page covering document.

  21. Europeans have been getting a bit pissed with giant cruise ships lobbing in and disgorging hordes of ‘el touristas’. A 71-year-old Norwegian politician Svein Ingvald Opdal, is the latest to make his feeling known ….. and other things 🙂

    Demonstrations against cruise ships are nothing new in Europe. In fact they’ve become a regular part of life in places like Venice,

    Already this summer protests have taken place in Mallorca, Barcelona and Dubrovnik,

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/norwegian-politician-mounts-naked-protest-against-cruise-ships/

  24. Regurgitator.

    Live shows were mental, particularly after they picked up ‎Peter Kostic from Front End Loader on the drums. That boy has the chops.

  25. My favourite live band was Jimmy and the boys.

    Yes. They were special. But the Oils live were something special too.

    But easily my favourite was, unexpectedly, the Screaming Jets. They were playing at the Brunswick Heads Hotel when I was in the area. It was halfway through the set in the outdoor area when a mother of a thunderstorm came in. He hastily moved into the pool table area but then the power went out. So he jumped up on a table and belted out the favourites. It was…. unique.

  26. Even Murdoch’s Oz is now highlighting the money given to GBR mob, with quotes from Frydenberg today claiming his Department proposed the dodgy $444 million giveaway in a lump sum but balanced by all the criticism of the deal.

    This issue is not going away and both Frydenberg and Turnbull are in for a lot of grief.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/great-barrier-reef-foundation-funding-idea-not-made-overnight-says-josh-frydenberg/news-story/6db0649a2d667804e346c104800ff4ca?from=htc_rss&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_campaign=EditorialSF

    If that won’t open (it doesn’t copy into outline.com) google “Reef millions are ‘value for money’” and choose the twitter option to link to the article.

  27. Re Aussie bands. My biggest LOL was in regard to a band that was just beginning to make a name for itself. They would lob in to play at a Sandgropian pub that year several times. Went and saw this band whose name I thought was “Inks” . Well by golly it was quite a surprise to find a month or two later when they really started to take off INXS was not pronounced Inks 😆

  28. “But the Oils live were something special too.”

    Saw them in the very early 80s at the amphitheatre in Darwin, which is a brilliant venue. Sound system was perfectly matched to their music and the venue, and they were in peak form.

    Best live show I ever went to.

  30. H. L. Mencken would today, if anything, be more aligned to Rand Paul’s brand of Libertarian.

    This is one of his less appealing utterances:
    “The only thing wrong with Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address was that it was the South, not the North, that was fighting for a government of the people, by the people and for the people.”

  33. Prof. Higgins says: Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 3:04 pm

    H. L. Mencken would today, if anything, be more aligned to Rand Paul’s brand of Libertarian.

    ****************************************************

    A few more of Mencken’s wise words :

    Democracy: The worship of jackals by jackasses

    Democracy is the art of running the circus from the monkey cage.

    There are two impossibilities in life: “just one drink” and “an honest politician.”

    and the classic :

    The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

  34. Poroti

    One of Darwin’s best kept secrets. Have been there many many times. Saw most of the iconic Aussie bands of the late 70s to the mid 80s. Oils, Skyhooks, etc.

    🙂

  39. poroti says: Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 2:59 pm

    Re Aussie bands.

    ****************************************

    Two memories of visiting classic Aussie bands in my little Gippsland town :

    Billy Thorpe having a trickle of blood down his face from bleeding out of one of his ears – no doubt from the unbelievable sheer volume of his guitar playing

    We played as back up band to AC/DC – then after the show we all had a ball driving them roaring around in our hotted up cars all over the place in a semi drunken state ……. they were all wild boys !!!!

  40. John R, @ #31625 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 2:01 pm

    I saw the Divynls several times, Chrissies presence was amazing.
    Another excellent Sydney live band was Hunters and Collectors, with the the trumpet and trombone…

    Agreed – but they were Melbourne-based. The old Oils were our equivalent – sweatier though. Paul Kelly (Lobby Lloyd and the Coloured Girls) in Adelaide in the mid 70’s – before he moved to Melbourne and the heroin got hold of him – he was electric.

  44. Looks like the sacrificial goats are being lined up.( pay walled)

    Interestingly, Jack Waterford in the Canberra Times only yesterday predicted that Frydenberg would take the fall, both immediately and in the long term, careerwize.

    The grant was a wonderful idea, say the politicians, until you ask exactly whose idea it was. Then there’s so much running away you’d think it was the City To Surf.

    Like him or loathe him, you can’t take that little coup away from Ben Fordham. He worked Frydenberg into a lather of enthusiasm late last week on 2GB. He had the minister waxing lyrical about how inspired it was, and how Labor had never done anything like it.

    Then Fordham asked why, if it was such a great idea, no-one would own up to having come up with it.

    By the time they hosed Frydenberg out of the studio, he’d claimed it wasn’t anyone’s idea in particular, and that anyway, Labor had been doing it for years already so not so original or unusual after all, and sort-of basically Labor’s idea.

    It was beautiful to listen to.

  46. briefly says: Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 3:22 pm

    Mencken was a cynic with a very low opinion of others, a Trumpian.

    ***********************************************

    Menken was loosely played as a newspaper reporter by Gene Kelly in the Spencer Tracy classic “Inherit The Wind’ which is also loosely based on the Scopes Monkey Trial – a great confrontation of Evolution vs Divine Creation between the 2 great combatants – Clarence Darrow and William Jennings Bryan

    The most frequent targets of Mencken’s flamboyant wit were fundamentalists—largely because of their constant efforts to employ the power of government to enforce their moral views. Like Darrow, Mencken could not tolerate intolerance. He believed deeply that individuals should be left to pursue happiness as they saw fit, with as little interference as possible from government or anyone else. In 1922, Mencken declared, “In am, in brief, a libertarian of the most extreme variety, and know of no human right that is one-tenth as valuable as the simple right to utter what seems (at the moment) to be the truth.”

  49. Hey ‘Rational Leftist’ what is Kindy Left about taking umbrage at the constant vicious anti Semitic smears those on the far right of the ALP constantly make about people on the left? Right out of the Rupert Murdoch play book.

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