Two privately conducted ReachTEL polls from the past week to relate, followed by enough federal preselection news to choke on. Also note immediately below this the post on a new YouGov Galaxy state poll from Queensland. I should also observe that September 8 has been set as the date for the Wagga Wagga state by-election in New South Wales, to be held after Liberal member Daryl Maguire fell foul of the Independent Commission Against Corruption. It presumably won’t be contested by Labor and will probably be of interest only to locals, but Antony Green naturally has a guide up.
On with the show:
• The Guardian reports a poll conducted for the ACTU has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. Other findings of the poll relate to wage rises, or the lack thereof: 47.6% reported not having received one in the past year, 32.9% said such as they had received did not cover the cost of living, and only 19.5% said their pay had improved in real terms. The poll was conducted on August 2 from a sample of 2453.
• Greenpeace has a Victoria only poll which, after exclusion of the 6.7% undecided, has the Coalition on 35.4% (compared with 41.8% at the 2016 election), Labor on 34.9% (35.6%), the Greens on an unlikely 18.6% (13.1%) and One Nation on 5.1%. Labor leads 57-43 on two-party preferred, compared with 51.8-48.2 at the election. The poll was conducted July 30 from a sample of 1118.
The preselection news bonanza starts in Victoria, where internal party democracy has been having a rough time of it lately, with Labor’s national executive and the Liberal Party’s state administrative committee both taking over federal preselections to protect sitting members amid factional unrest.
• The Labor vacancy created by the retirement of Michael Danby in Macnamara, as Melbourne Ports will now be known, is set to be filled by one of his former staffers, Josh Burns. The seat is reserved to the Right under factional arrangements, and Burns prevailed in a factional ballot with 61 votes to 49 for Nick Dyrefurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre, and 16 for Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor (numbers related by Emma-Jayne Schenk of the Caulfield Glen Eira Leader). Delahunty called on the national executive to disregard the result, accusing Danby of hand-picking the attendees to the meeting and seeing that others were locked out, and complaining that 85% of those present were male.
• United Voice state secretary Jess Walsh will take second position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket after winning Socialist Left endorsement at the expense of incumbent Gavin Marshall. Marshall has been demoted to what is being described as an unwinnable position – number three according to the Herald Sun, though reports vary. The result is a defeat for Socialist Left powerbroker and Marshall ally Kim Carr, whose influence has diminished in the face of a new alliance between the Industrial Left and Right forces associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It also contradicts the justification for referring preselections to the national executive, which was to protect sitting members.
• The Herald Sun reports a factional deal has set up state upper house member Daniel Mulino to run in the new safe Labor seat of Fraser in western Melbourne, making his existing seat in Eastern Victoria available for Jane Garrett. This was supported by Bill Shorten, and bitterly opposed by Garrett’s foes in the United Firefighters Union. Garrett is backed by the Industrial Left, which has been determined to find her a new seat after she abandoned her existing berth of Brunswick, where she is under growing pressure from the Greens. Mulino is aligned with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association (although the internal politics of that union is a story unto itself), which was at first unhappy at losing influence within the state government, but has been mollified with the promise of an extra state seat.
• Jenny Macklin’s successor in Jagajaga, which is reserved to the Socialist Left, will be Kate Thwaites, a former staffer to Macklin, ABC journalist and, most recently, communications director at Victoria’s Department of Health and Human Services. Thwaites won factional backing ahead of Sonja Terpstra, a local teacher and community activist.
• The Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee has rubber-stamped the preselections of all sitting federal MPs, ostensibly to prevent the party from being distracted in the lead-up to the November 29 state election. However, the real story by all accounts is that the dominant conservative faction wishes to protect Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who faced a challenge from Keith Wolahan, a former Blake Dawson lawyer who earlier served overseas with the Australian Defence Force.
Elsewhere:
• Matthew Killoran of The Courier-Mail reports five candidates are seeking preselection for a Queensland Senate position reserved to the Left, which is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore. The front runner by all accounts is Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt, who is backed by the CFMMEU. This is despite Green being based in Brisbane, and party rules reserving the spot for central or north Queensland (Green says she will move there if successful). Others in the field are Leanne Donaldson, who held the state seat of Bundaberg from 2015 until her defeat in 2017, and lost her position in cabinet when it emerged she had failed to pay nearly $8000 in council rates; Julie McGlone, Tourism Australia marketing executive; Tania Major, Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate; and Karin Campbell, an occupational health and safety consultant.
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports that Georgina Downer, who for some reason wants to run in Mayo again, will face opposition from Reagan Garner, human resources manager for ReturnToWorkSA. However, Starick reports Downer is the “overwhelming favourite”.
• Sally Whyte of the Canberra Times reports there are five nominees for Labor preselection in Canberra, where a vacancy is available as a result of the Australian Capital Territory’s House of Representatives seat entitlement increasing from two to three. They are John Falzon, chief executive of St Vincent de Paul; Kel Watt, a lobbyist for the greyhound racing industry; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; Simon Banks, managing director for lobbyists Hawker Britton; and Alicia Payne, who has worked as a staffer to Jenny Macklin, Bill Shorten and Lindsay Tanner. Falzon has been endorsed by the Left, Watt and Ingram are seeking endorsement from the Right, and Banks and Payne are unaligned. Falzon has been in the news lately after a picture emerged of him wearing a t-shirt with Lenin emblazoned on it, while Watt has been the target of a dirt sheet being circulated within the local party. The preselection process will be completed early next month.
• In South Australia, Labor will deal with the abolition of Port Adelaide by having the homeless Mark Butler run in Hindmarsh, and moving Hindmarsh MP Steve Georganas to neighbouring Adelaide. The latter is being vacated by Kate Ellis, and has turned from a marginal to a fairly safe Labor seat as a result of the redistribution changes. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the deal involves a Senate seat being forfeited by the Left, of which Butler is a member, with the top two positions on the Senate ticket to be taken by the Right.
• Nathan Hondros of Fairfax reports Labor’s likely new candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Hasluck in eastern Perth is James Martin, Mundaring Shire councillor and director of Marketech Ltd, a firm that develops stock market trading software. The position became vacant after the withdrawal of Lauren Palmer, an official with the Maritime Union of Australia, who cited health reasons. Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Martin is a member of the Progressive Left faction, which combines forces of the Right (the SDA, TWU and AWU) and Left (the MUA and CFMMEU).
• Luke Hartsuyker announced this week he will not seek another term in the mid north coast New South Wales seat of Cowper, which he has held for the Nationals since 2001. No word yet on who might succeed him as Nationals candidate, but Rob Oakeshott, who ran unsuccessfully against Hartsuyker in 2016, is not ruling out running again.
“It is ONLY going to be used to find ways to prevent farm fertiliser runoff ”
I have another radical idea to tackle that:
“Purge the Kulaks!”
ItzaDream @ #497 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 9:54 am
Who needs it when Turnbull is talking!?! 😀
Love the end clip of Bill Shorten’s outback adventures. Always good to see the human side of MPs.
zoomster @ #498 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 9:58 am
What are you taking issue to ?
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 9:09 am
This is the portrait of the Queen I’d be sending out – snapped during her meeting with Donald Trump
I have gray haired mothers and I know that that look means. It is not good.
Player One @ #499 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 6:56 am
Doesn’t the concept of a “sustainable Australia” imply a self sufficient one, one that is isolated and does not interact outside itself?
i.e. no trade! 🙂
I thought this was photoshopped. It’s not.
Dotard invited ‘Bikers for Trump’ to his Bedminster residence today. They would look better in BrownShirts..
This should excite Malcolm even more.
sprocket_ @ #507 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:09 am
About the only people (if that’s the word) he looks comfortable with.
“Doesn’t the concept of a “sustainable Australia” imply a self sufficient one, one that is isolated and does not interact outside itself?
i.e. no trade! ”
Yeah the modelling is pretty sketchy but you start by framing how we do with a particular thing we need that we can’t import. Maybe if Trump starts a nuclear war this is how you should do the modelling but while we have international trade almost all the modelling on sustainable is bullsh1t, if anything Grog is much much to kind to it.
The HR department in this instance might have a bad track record of handling complaints. Many HR departments are just an arm of management, not a an effective mechanism for upholding workers’ rights. It is not as straightforward as you make it out to be. Have HR departments instilled confidence in employees who want to report sexual misconduct? Have you heard of Me Too or have you been living under a rock for the past year?
Rex
“The NSW ALP remains a toxic, self-interested, cesspit of nastiness.”
Your opinions are like Onions, they stink!.
Barney in Go Dau @ #506 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:07 am
No. Why would it? You are confusing “sustainable” with “isolationist”.
FrythePlanet should write a novel he’s so good at fiction.
The simple fact is that none of the GBRF members, trustees or whatever are going to do anything that is against their companies’ interests.
This confines their activities to showy PR efforts and politically safe attempts to increase tourism. There’ll be lots of glittering balls, fashion shows, art prizes and celebrity endorsements. The $444 million is the biggest entertainment allowance on history.
sprocket_ @ #508 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:09 am
I bet they don’t like the fact he’s killing off Harley Davidson.
1934pc @ #513 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:13 am
They also have the IQ of an onion.
So the only Democrat of note that support’s Trudeau’s stance on Saudi Arabia is Sanders. It figures.
‘Canada’s lonely stand for women’s rights in the kingdom did earn the support of some around the world; this week saw the Guardian and the New York Times publish editorials urging Europe and the US to stand with Canada. So did the Washington Post, going one step further by publishing their editorial in Arabic.
Their call was echoed by a handful of prominent voices in the US, including Bernie Sanders. “It’s entirely legitimate for democratic governments to highlight human rights issues with undemocratic governments,” the US senator wrote on Twitter. “The US must be clear in condemning repression, especially when done by governments that receive our support.”’
It isn’t photoshopped, it’s definitely real.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/us/politics/trump-sessions-russia.html
“The simple fact is that none of the GBRF members, trustees or whatever are going to do anything that is against their companies’ interests.”
Which is pretty much the same as saying that they will not do anything contrary to the interests of a Coaltion Government.
Player One @ #514 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 7:16 am
Doesn’t one lead to the other?
If you’re sustainable you don’t need things from without and so you become isolated.
Sohar @ #517 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:21 am
Bernie is apparently an extremist according to many republicans and democrats.
“Which is pretty much the same as saying that they will not do anything contrary to the interests of a Coaltion Government.”
Yeah it is the LNP equivalent of giving 500 mm to the CFMEU to improve employer relations.
“but there’s no excuse for a rehash now.”
Except that Bill shorten has questions to answer when Parliament goes back. 🙂
Keep up the Skeer. 🙂
Barney in Go Dau
Sustainable does not mean “self sufficient”. Not over fishing or degrading the land for instance does not mean not trading.
Yes, that’s been my experience. Staff in HR departments can’t rock the boat too much against the company line or they might get the chop themselves.
“Bernie is apparently an extremist according to many republicans and democrats.”
As I understand it Bernie isn’t actually a democrat at all, and so no democrat supports it, but he isn’t an extremist he is just an opportunist.
Simon² Katich® @ #30112 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 9:22 am
SK: very nice, however I also have a very soft spot for Alan Price’s 1973 version for the Lindsay Anderson film, O Lucky Man . Anthem of my youth.
“Not over fishing or degrading the land for instance does not mean not trading.”
But if you don’t cap the amount of land then it doesn’t matter how light you fish, and how little you cultivate, it only matters when you cap the amount of land. So there isn’t a sensible distinction between isolation and sustainable, unless you do it on a global scale and on any global scale the conclusion is gonna be Australia can sustainably fit in a couple hundred million more.
Bernie is apparently an extremist according to many republicans and democrats.
And the vast majority of the American electorate, who didn’t vote to elect one of the Sanders-endorsed candidates in last week’s Primary contests.
It might have something to do with the fact they found out about the Sanders’ campaign of 2016’s links to the Russians. 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-12/wages-and-jobs-data-to-test-reserve-banks-mantra-economic-policy/10093892
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/12/unions-nsw-to-fight-berejiklian-government-campaign-rules-in-high-court
WeWantPaul @ #526 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:30 am
We need to stop Bernie’s opportunistic efforts to get Americans to examine their social conscience. He’s dangerous… !
The pictures of Trump and his bikie mates are simply appalling.
I cannot, for the life of me, understand how the republican moderates just put up with the trashing of their party’s values.
C@tmomma @ #529 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:35 am
Bernie’s a Russian bot ! I knew it !!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #30159 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:00 am
Speaking of ipecacuanha…
Kay Jay
Have you had your cataracts checked out recently. An operation may be necessary.
“We need to stop Bernie’s opportunistic efforts to get Americans to examine their social conscience. He’s dangerous… !”
He is, all his destruction of Hillary gave us Trump, after Comey who almost certainly swung the result, it was Bernie and to a lesser extent Jill Stein that did the ‘they are as bad as each other, stay at home’ that had Hillary so close to the line.
I can’t stand these fringe players that get to play fast and loose from the boundary and are never accountable for anything.
Barney in Go Dau @ #521 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:27 am
No. Are you being deliberately obtuse, or do you really not understand the difference?
For instance, “Sustainable agriculture” means you are growing food by using your resources in a manner that does not compromise the ability of future generations to do the same. It doesn’t necessarily mean you have to grow everything you need yourself (which is often not feasible). If you and your trading partners grow different crops, but are all farming sustainably, then the end result is also sustainable.
O Lucky Man
Anthem of my youth.
Bought the record. Saw the film.
Also went to see:
Plus, I still have this poster on my wall to forever steel my spine against the real thugs:
I also read the book in Year 5. 🙂
No. It doesn’t. The concept of sustainability has nothing to do with the concept of a closed economy (i.e. an economy that does not have an external sector, only a government sector and a domestic non-government sector).
WeWantPaul
If you are fishing sustainable, not taking more than is produced, then there is nothing to stop us from exporting some. The only problem would be if we get to a stage where our population is so large we consume all of the sustainable catch. Which means not getting to a population size such that we consume all of the capacity.
WeWantPaul @ #537 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:41 am
But wasn’t it Hillary’s destruction of herself and Bernie that delivered Trump ..?
WeWantPaul @ #529 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:33 am
It is unusual to see a post like this on PB. It is wrong in almost every respect 🙁
Rex Douglas @ #544 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:43 am
No.
She beat Trump by 3 Million + votes. If she’d lost by that much your banal assumption may have had weight. As it stand it’s just another lightweight throwaway line from you.
I don’t have a problem with Govt assistance to the farming industry – just wish they had the same goodwill to the car manufacturing industry.
”
It is unusual to see a post like this on PB. It is wrong in almost every respect ”
Perhaps you’d have a little more credibility if you started with one, and we could go from there.
jenauthor @ #570 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 8:39 am
They hold their noses and just accept the riches that come from controlling Congress and the WH. Hypocrites the lot of them.
Bernie’s a Russian bot ! I knew it !!
Another banal throwaway line from you, Rex Douglas, that looks straight past the evidence of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign manager, Tad Devine’s links to Russian spy, Konstantin Kilimnik.
Although I will grant that Bernie Sanders was likely a useful idiot.