BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. MB

    Great of the Unions to do. If religions want exemptions to discriminate they should have to do what gay people do with their bars. Apply for a valid reason for that discrimination. Prove its worth not have a blanket arbitrary you can discriminate holus bolus.

  2. Perhaps we should change our sporting codes to match our utopian vision of our education system.

    For example, if football Team A flogs Team B by twenty goals, but does it without really trying because they’re so good, maybe we should award the premiership points to Team B because they put in more effort.

    Actually, I probably shouldn’t have suggested that. It could give some administrators of junior sport ideas.

  5. When I was a med student, I was always amused by 50% being the pass mark. Did that mean I only had to know what was wrong half the time or know about half of the patient’s disease? Was 50% really good enough?

  7. Diogenes @ #253 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 12:58 pm

    When I was a med student, I was always amused by 50% being the pass mark. Did that mean I only had to know what was wrong half the time or know about half of the patient’s disease? Was 50% really good enough?

    I guess it means if you only lose 50% of your patients you still get to keep your license 🙂

  8. Diogenes

    If the education system has been set up properly the answer is of course yes. The 50 mark is the minimum knowledge required to do the job.

    Thus if you don’t pass you don’t employ the doctor or engineer or whatever trade or profession because they don’t have the knowledge to do the job.

    All the higher marks tell you is the student was better at doing the course and you can assume that the knowledge of that student is better. Thats it.

  9. guytaur
    Say the exam was reading ECGs. The pass would be picking common arrythmias and heart attacks. A credit student would pick a posterior infact and second degree heart block and the distinction would pick uncommon arrythmias. I know which one I would prefer to see. Less patients will end up in the bunker with the distinction student than the pass student on average. But it does presuppose that it’s okay to pass someone who will make serious mistakes.

  10. Diogenes

    The experience of the student is different from that of the employee.

    Of course you prefer the higher knowledge student. Especially in a vocation such a medicine.

    However my point is that a grade attained is a grade attained.

    Not all doctors become heart specialists. I am amazed at the amount of knowledge doctors have and retain all the time. Thats the ones on the pass marks. For your example if thats essential knowledge it should be required to get the pass mark and shows a lack of design or flexibility in the education course.

    You get my point I think. The truth is that the doctor that leaves college will be make more mistakes than the doctor who has years of experience. You can only soak up so much knowledge without practical experience to back it up.

    Just as the longer a doctor has known a patient they are more likely to correctly diagnose a condition. Part of the reason for the set up of the my health record is to expand that experience and knowledge to be available to all medical people where required.

    Contrast that with India where people call themselves doctors who don’t have that pass mark. Thats my point the pass mark is valid.

  11. The outcome of Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission isn’t as simple as MB makes it out to be.

    It was about inferred intent on the part of the Commission. The ruling declared the Commission’s decision invalid because members of the Commission allegedly made anti-religious comments and thus the inferred intent was more anti-religious and less about equality, which violates the first amendment. If they hadn’t taken that approach, Kennedy and the liberal justices who voted for it would have voted in favour of the Commission instead on the grounds that, yes, denying somebody service based on their sexuality violates equality laws (just like denying service to a person of colour)

    Also, it was a narrow decision. Which doesn’t mean it was a close vote, it means it only applies to this specific set of circumstances and should not be used as a broad precedent.

    It should also be noted that this decision has been heavily criticised by many in legal circles (not just pro-equality advocates) on the overreach of inferring intent of ruling bodies like the Commission. Further criticism was drawn on the apparent dissonance of this ruling contrasted with the Trump v. Hawaii ruling that happened not long after (where Hawaii and other states challenged the travel ban on the grounds that it’s purposely targeting Muslims) and the majority (albeit slimmer than Masterpiece) ruled that intent cannot be inferred (despite Trump publicly stating numerous times that it was a Muslim ban) and that it’s solely about the black and white of executive power (which on paper, he has.)

    This is all apropos of nothing, of course. The Court has recently taken a new path of overturning precedent with only concern to ideology and once Kavanaugh is confirmed and sworn in, that’s pretty much it for anybody who is opposed to greedy billionaires, domestic spying, evangelicals enforcing their worldview on the public or those who believe Trump should answer for any crimes he might have committed. End result of an ideology-based judiciary. Item #5486667889 of what is wrong with that country’s system.

  12. When I was a med student, I was always amused by 50% being the pass mark. Did that mean I only had to know what was wrong half the time or know about half of the patient’s disease? Was 50% really good enough?

    Because academically, 50% is the threshold of competence. Anything higher is a level of excellence.

  13. guytaur: “If religions want exemptions to discriminate they should have to do what gay people do with their bars. Apply for a valid reason for that discrimination. ”

    Do you know of an instance in which a gay bar has actually discriminated on the grounds of sexuality? How would someone go about doing this anyway?

    The blanket exemption for religions was put in place precisely in order to avoid forcing them to have to go before courts and justify their beliefs. I think any move away from this will risk creating major social tensions and will end up doing more harm than good. One major risk is that any such change in the law will be taken up by the political right as an opportunity to have a go at Muslims.

    The whole situation is a sleeping dog that should be allowed to lie for a few more decades to come, even if it means that a few LGBTIQA [what on earth does the “A” stand for? it’s hard to keep up with the current rate of acronymic inflation] people miss out on the opportunity to work as cleaners in Catholic schools.

  15. MB

    Bars in Sydney have had to apply to be single sex only. Thats discrimination. Its done to prevent a gay bar becoming a straight bar.

  16. From today’s Crikey:

    Sky News’ decision to provide an uncritical platform for violent racist and convicted criminal Blair Cottrell yesterday, and its legitimisation of him as an “activist”, not merely continues the pay TV outlet’s love affair with far-right extremists but will deeply concern Australia’s security and intelligence agencies.

    ASIO’s Duncan Lewis has repeatedly warned of the growing threat of right-wing extremism in recent years. Sky News’ attempt to mainstream the criminal Cottrell — now disavowed by the channel, but only after a massive backlash on social media — will only add to concerns that the media is too eager to give a platform to voices of hatred in an effort to juice weakening ratings. In January, the Seven Network, which like Sky News has a history of pandering to bigots, gave Cottrell a platform to speak on “African gangs” and similarly tried to legitimise him as a member of a community group.

  17. Porter taking the Banerji case to the High Court has already cost Australia a potential great candidate for a high level Govt. job.

    Comment on an article about the Banerji case.
    Zoe.of.Oz
    1 hour ago
    I recently abandoned an application to join the new Australian Space Agency, specifically because of the unacceptable restrictions on freedom of speech that public servants now are subject to.

    I headed the onboard computer development team for FedSat, so am one of less than a handful of Australians experienced in the area of liasing with other space agencies, with awareness of the legal issues, as well as the technical ones.

    How good I was at it, that would have been up to a selection committee to judge. Similarly, how applicable past experience would be to the current situation.

    They won’t get a chance to make that decision though. In order to get things to work in the scientific world, where facts matter, freedom to point out through appropriate channels the sartorial deficiencies of the Emperor is essential. If the channels are politically blocked, anonymous comments with no reference to the public service are the only way to do this.

    I was not willing to take a post where I’d have all the responsibility of preventing disaster, but none of the power required to do that. The technical issues in Rocket Science are hard enough without such ulcer inducing frustration.

  22. Why would you pay for Sky News when it’s coming to TVs across the country for free?

    Sky News’ free-to-air offering. Sky News will launch its free-to-air service on Win next month, including a new breakfast program hosted by presenter Jaynie Seal. The channel will air in regional areas where Win is broadcast, and will include content from Sky News, Fox Sports Australia and Sky News Weather — channels all otherwise only available on cable service Foxtel. Win broadcasts in parts of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, and throughout Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.

    The line-up includes news content and some of the network’s more ideological offerings, including programs hosted by Andrew Bolt, Chris Kenny, and Graham Richardson.

  23. KKeneally continues to tweet excellent information on Reefgate.
    I also see that Leigh Sales is going to interview Turnbull
    Not holding my breath for a probing interview.
    I guess we can only hope

  24. Rational Leftist: “The outcome of Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission isn’t as simple as MB makes it out to be.”

    If you read my post properly, you will see that I didn’t actually make out anything at all about the outcome of the case other than that it went against the Colorado Civil Rights Commission.

    However, now that you’ve raised it, I agree with you that the grounds used by the Supreme Court in its verdict were a bit of a surprise. But I think it was the right verdict: notwithstanding that I personally don’t hold to the edicts of Christianity, I saw it as something of a victory for freedom of thought.

    In the end, it’s the decision that matters, not the path that takes you there. Eg, Roe vs Wade or the Mabo verdict, where the decision-making process used by courts in each case was arguably rather torturous, but IMO the right verdict was reached.

  26. Fess, you may recall that back in the general election campaign I started to refer to “that person” as BeAbusive and he seemed to be entertained by it. This is definitely a nicer place without him. One less yapping and biting corgi.

  27. I know other have remarked on it, but I am constantly amazed at Turnbull’s inability to form coherent phrases. There are always false starts and hesitations, as if the subject is completely new to him.

  28. Michael Pascoe tweets

    Quickest way to get off @SkyNewsAust @DrCraigEmerson – criticise Murdoch. A few years ago now, but in short order I went from co-hosting a program to never being invited back again. So much for media freedom.

  29. I also see that Leigh Sales is going to interview Turnbull

    Expect tough questions, ample room for lecturing accompanied by smarmy grin that avoid the question and then wishy washy or no follow up.

  30. “KKeneally continues to tweet excellent information on Reefgate.
    I also see that Leigh Sales is going to interview Turnbull
    Not holding my breath for a probing interview.
    I guess we can only hope”

    The chances of that are basically zero.

  32. simon holmes à court‏ @simonahac · 35m35 minutes ago

    under @JoshFrydenberg’s #NEG exactly 14MW of large scale renewables is expected to be built between june 2021 and june 2030.

    that’s it — the equivalent of just 4 wind turbines, over a decade.

  36. ABC news is describing Cottrell as a White Nationalist

    Is that what they call fascists now? Not even White Supremacist?

    Oh, to be a fly on the wall when they work shopped that term. Or was it given to them by Cottrell and swallowed?

  37. Oh sh*t. Wayne has been wrong on every previous election prediction, so his latest prediction is bad new for Shorten/Labor.

  38. If we’re measuring competence, let’s do that. So if Diog passes an exam with a mark of 90% but can’t perform the necessary procedure, he doesn’t get to be a doctor. Or he knows the theoretical hallmarks of a disease perfectly but can’t recognise it when he sees it manifesting in a patient…

  39. @Lizzie

    They can join the club, we been filling and refilling the Centrelink forms for years.

    The only way to change is to change the party in power.

  40. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he has the “overwhelming” support of his backbench ahead of a key meeting with the states on a national energy plan, after Victoria promised to reject the deal unless the Coalition party room was united.

    Liberal backbenchers Craig Kelly and Tony Abbott have openly advocated changes to the so-called National Energy Guarantee in recent weeks.

    Mr Abbott blasted the government’s predictions for energy bill savings as “completely implausible”.

    The two outspoken Liberal backbenchers and many in the Nationals want to see evidence the policy can drive new investment in coal-fired power stations.

    But the prime minister insisted the government was mostly united on the plan.

    …
    A group of industry and employer groups have thrown their weight behind the policy.

    “There can be no further delays. A decade of policy uncertainty has only resulted in higher electricity prices and a less stable and reliable energy system,” the joint statement read, signed by the Business Council, Farmers’ Federation and the Australian Energy Council, among others.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/pm-looking-to-shore-up-energy-plan-support-amid-criticism?cid=news:socialshare:twitter

  42. Simon² Katich® @ #283 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 1:44 pm

    ABC news is describing Cottrell as a White Nationalist

    Is that what they call fascists now? Not even White Supremacist?

    Oh, to be a fly on the wall when they work shopped that term. Or was it given to them by Cottrell and swallowed?

    Simon

    The definition of a fascist is essentially:
    Nationalist
    Racist/xenophobic
    Militaristic/expansionist
    Corporate ie lots of power for corporate elites
    Anti egalitarian ie elites rich others poor but i guess not s poor they are angry
    Totalitarian

    So yes that guy s a fascist by anyone’s definition

  43. Is that what they call fascists now? Not even White Supremacist?

    Or do as Crikey has and call him what he is: a violent racist and convicted criminal.

  45. zoomster @ #286 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 1:47 pm

    If we’re measuring competence, let’s do that. So if Diog passes an exam with a mark of 90% but can’t perform the necessary procedure, he doesn’t get to be a doctor. Or he knows the theoretical hallmarks of a disease perfectly but can’t recognise it when he sees it manifesting in a patient…

    Which – to be fair – you would have to use some kind of standard procedure, with a predetermined pass and fail criteria, to determine …

  46. Bill ShortenVerified account@billshortenmp
    1h1 hour ago
    This out of touch government is cutting the funding for 348,000 preschool kids. We know the benefits of preschool. It beggars belief that Turnbull can find $17 billion for the big banks, but he won’t fund the early education of young kids.

    :large

  48. P1

    Yes, either a student is satisfactory (can perform the procedure) or unsatisfactory (they can’t).

    None of this half assed ‘well, they know 50% of how to perform the procedure, so they don’t need to bother learning the rest”.

  50. Does the NSW government hate the environment so much?

    Only two prosecutions for illegal land-clearing were launched in New South Wales in 2015-16, down from 10 the previous year, the long-awaited report card on the state of land-clearing shows.

    However, the Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH) appears to have had more success with cases already under way the year before, with four convictions secured, up from just one in 2014-15.

    A combined native vegetation report for 2014-2016 was released by the OEH late Friday, after an eight-month battle by Guardian Australia using freedom of information laws to secure its release. It was almost two years overdue.

    It shows a sharp spike in native vegetation cleared legally in NSW during 2015-16, with 7,390 hectares cleared, double the 10-year average and eight times the area cleared in 2013-14.

    …
    Environmental groups and the OEH itself fear clearing will increase sharply in coming years, under the new Biodiversity Conservation Act, which came into force in August 2017. It allows landholders to self-assess whether they need to seek a permit. In many cases they do not require one.

    Land clearing has a direct relationship to the severity of droughts and climate change, according to work by the University of Queensland’s climate change centre of excellence in 2009. The rate of clearing, particularly in Queensland, threatens to wipe out emissisons reductions made through the government’s Direct Action fund.

    The Greens NSW environment spokesperson, Mehreen Faruqi, said the state government had made changes to native vegetation laws that they knew would accelerate land-clearing.

    “Even worse, they did so while withholding from the public how much native vegetation is left in NSW. There is absolutely no transparency in environmental decision making,” she said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/06/nsw-prosecutions-for-land-clearing-fall-from-10-to-two-report-card-shows?CMP=soc_568

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