BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. zoomster @ #541 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    Of course she could, Rex.

    Journos receive material like this all the time, from people with an axe to grind.

    It’s not their job to broadcast every whinge someone who fields hard done by wishes to air.

    I’ve previously posted here an example from my own experience, where the local paper did not publish a claim someone was making against me. They didn’t even check with me before making that decision; it’s not hard to recognise a personal vendetta when you see it.

    Not all MP’s are the subject of allegations from 20+ ex-staff.

  3. a r @ #547 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #2786 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:55 pm

    It was neither Alice Workman nor myself which leaked the lewd allegations which the Labor ‘investigation’ has dismissed.

    No, but it was Alice who published them without first making any reasonable effort to determine whether or not they were even remotely credible.

    She had one (trivially easy) job to do, and she didn’t do it. Lazy journalism, all day long.

    If the same had been published about Joyce I’d suggest there’d be no outrage from Labor partisans.

  5. Rex Douglas,
    It was neither Alice Workman nor myself which leaked the lewd allegations which the Labor ‘investigation’ has dismissed.

    No. You just fed on them here like a vulture picking over carrion. At every opportunity that you could manufacture for yourself.

  8. Mike Carlton
    ‏
    @MikeCarlton01

    I don’t know Emma Husar, but it strikes me that her sins don’t merit the end of her political career. She was a new MP in a tough electorate. And the slut-shaming was vicious.

  9. Rex Douglas @ #2803 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:10 pm

    If the same had been published about Joyce I’d suggest there’d be no outrage from Labor partisans.

    The difference here – that you clearly can’t see – is that the Joyce sex allegations would have been easy to prove. The Husar sex allegations, on the other hand, would have been easy to disprove.

    The only similarity is that in both cases the media couldn’t be buggered looking for the truth.

    Same-same, eh Rex?

  15. Rex Douglas @ #2803 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:10 pm

    If the same had been published about Joyce I’d suggest there’d be no outrage from Labor partisans.

    Nah, same standards for everyone. If it’s true and verifiable, then publish. Otherwise don’t.

    It’s the journalist’s job to verify, not just to run every random thing that falls onto their desks.

  17. Problem with Workman, not only did she run the “basic instinct” report, but she also doubled down on it even when the story fell apart

  19. I was speaking to a sales person in industrial aircon and according to him Business in WA is going gangbusters good in other states except VIctoria where they had to cut staff. He expects NSW to hit a brick wall in 2020.

  20. Within minutes of Workman publishing that letter, Chris Uhlmann got in touch with with Jason Clare to check things out. Not hard. But oh no, Workman knew she had a story that would put her centre stage. The facts just didn’t matter, nor did the reputational damage to Emma Husar. I very much hope Husar sues.

  22. Dr Glorious Pecora‏ @noplaceforsheep

    Somebody tell me exactly what is the difference between the way @yassmin_a was driven out of the country by the Oz, & the way Workman, supported by her mates, has destroyed the career of Husar?

  25. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-10/ben-roberts-smith-denies-accusations-of-misconduct/10106652

    Australia’s most decorated soldier Ben Roberts-Smith has broken a long public silence over rumours and allegations of misconduct, rejecting them as “malicious” and deeply troubling.
    :::
    More broadly, he described the Fairfax Media reports as “a catalogue of lies, fabrications and misrepresentations”.
    ::::
    The ABC has been told the soldier-turned-business-executive for Seven West Media intends to sue for defamation in the Federal Court.
    ::::
    The investigations have ruptured the normally closed ranks of the SAS and special forces community and pitted former soldiers against each other through written complaints, sworn statements, media leaks and strange campaigns of personal retribution that have included sending anonymous letters and threats to one another.

  26. The story of thebasic instinct moment should have never been published wthout corroberation. The fact that someone leaked it is a story worth publishing
    MSM report this sort of thing occassionally such as “sources in Centre Unity (or whatever doesn’t betray source) has made salacious accusations about Ms Husar that the SMH has been unable to verify”

  27. I think an accurate report of a legal letter, if that is what was been done by Workman in relation to Whelan, is an unlikely source of a defamation suit.

  29. adrian says Friday, August 10, 2018 at 4:56 pm

    So true.
    I think that there’s more to the Workman story, as her behaviour is so unprofessional, even for a journalist!

    From what I can see, journalistic ethics (regardless of the journalist) basically boil down to:
    . Protect the identity of your source (and journalists have gone to gaol over this)
    . Don’t quote or attribute things you are told off the record. However, if you can find some way to weasel out of this, go for it.

    That’s it. Anyone who things they can trust a journalist has rocks in their head.

    Would other journalists have published what Workman published? I can’t say for sure, but I suspect some would have. Would Workman have published if Husar had been an MP from any other party. Damn right she would have (especially if the MP had been Senator Cash). Would half the people on here criticising Workman have been praising her if the MP had been a member of the Coalition (or PHON, or the Greens)? I think so (although if the MP had been a Green I think Rex might have had a different opinion).

    I don’t know enough about journalism or employment dispute resolution practices to say whether what Workman did was right. I personally suspect she went too far. But, I’m also not certain that I would hold the same opinion if the report had been about a Coalition backbencher, or someone from PHON.

    One other thing, from my understanding Workman didn’t accuse Husar of going commando. She reported that one of the complaints alleged it. They’re not the same thing.

  30. Late Riser says Friday, August 10, 2018 at 4:12 pm

    For those unfamiliar with BuzzFeed, it’s the political version of New Idea – and its business model is based on cultural gossip and click-bait, sprinkled with some political news of the day. Its Australian headquarters are housed in a more salubrious part of the Sydney CBD, staffed by young middle-class privileged white kids and, to work there, you need a bit of cultural cache – know how to say the right words, know the right people, are ‘in’ on the latest cool things in the world – and have more attitude than sense.

    I don’t know if Lane Sainty is a young middle-class privileged white kid (although wouldn’t that description apply to most young Australians?) but I think she would fail the cultural cache test.

  33. bc @ #2828 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    adrian says Friday, August 10, 2018 at 4:56 pm

    So true.
    I think that there’s more to the Workman story, as her behaviour is so unprofessional, even for a journalist!

    From what I can see, journalistic ethics (regardless of the journalist) basically boil down to:
    . Protect the identity of your source (and journalists have gone to gaol over this)
    . Don’t quote or attribute things you are told off the record. However, if you can find some way to weasel out of this, go for it.

    That’s it. Anyone who things they can trust a journalist has rocks in their head.

    Would other journalists have published what Workman published? I can’t say for sure, but I suspect some would have. Would Workman have published if Husar had been an MP from any other party. Damn right she would have (especially if the MP had been Senator Cash). Would half the people on here criticising Workman have been praising her if the MP had been a member of the Coalition (or PHON, or the Greens)? I think so (although if the MP had been a Green I think Rex might have had a different opinion).

    I don’t know enough about journalism or employment dispute resolution practices to say whether what Workman did was right. I personally suspect she went too far. But, I’m also not certain that I would hold the same opinion if the report had been about a Coalition backbencher, or someone from PHON.

    One other thing, from my understanding Workman didn’t accuse Husar of going commando. She reported that one of the complaints alleged it. They’re not the same thing.

    This is caviling on behalf of Alice Workman. As a r pointed out, a REAL journalist, Chris Uhlmann, rang Jason Clare for his side of the ‘Basic Instinct’ story and found out in less than a minute that it was bs. So he didn’t reinforce it by repeating it and he published Jason Clare’s firm denial.

    Alice Workman didn’t bother doing that.

    As for this false equivalence argument that if Workman had done the same thing about a female MP from the Coalition we would all be cheering her on. Not. This. Little. Black. Duck. Whatever you might think and behaviour you wish to ascribe to me.

  35. antonbruckner11 @ #2723 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 3:34 pm

    autocrat – Have bought my tickets for Brooky tomorrow night. If I walk into the concert hall and their ain’t three harps on the stage, I’m walking out.

    With just enough time to catch the Mahler 6. Rear stalls piano side would be my suggestion. Only two harps perhaps, but there’s cowbells, glockenspiel, hammer and a kitchen sink.

    https://www.limelightmagazine.com.au/reviews/mahler-six-sydney-symphony-orchestra/

  36. Oakeshott Country @ #2825 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:49 pm

    The story of thebasic instinct moment should have never been published wthout corroberation. The fact that someone leaked it is a story worth publishing
    MSM report this sort of thing occassionally such as “sources in Centre Unity (or whatever doesn’t betray source) has made salacious accusations about Ms Husar that the SMH has been unable to verify”

    Exactly. That’s all that needed to be said in the first instance. Then, if proven, journalists can decide whether to publish or not.

  38. Workman; her behaviour on insiders left you wondering what her personal involment was. To use her standard, who has seen her crutch.

  39. I’ve actually defended Sophie Mirabella against slurs made against her – for example, an article was published on line which alleged (among other things) that she had broken up her lover’s marriage and I contacted the journalist concerned and told him I thought this was incorrect. He amended the article accordingly.

  40. Shellbell

    Culleton will need to find costs, unless they are waived by the AG – which he shouldn’t because, as you say, he is a vexatious litigant wasting the time of the court. It might make him think twice about bringing another proceeding on the invalidatity of the Australia Act.

  45. My problem with Workman has always been her obvious ‘relish’ in the story and her excitement when being interviewed about it. As I said a few days back, it made me wonder if she has undergone some personal level of bullying, for instance, and sort of saw this as a way of getting back (vicariously) at those who she perceived as bullies.

  46. Mr Denmore
    ‏ @MrDenmore
    37s38 seconds ago

    This Husar beat-up has turned out to be, as some of us said all along, a result of poor editorial judgement & a pile-on in pursuit of a prefab narrative. The media is in a tough place, granted, but it does itself no favours when it loses its sense of proportion and restraint.
    0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

  47. AB11

    Appeal that – if you can prove a prosecutor, on a subjective basis, had an absence of reasonable and probable cause, malice must be an available finding as to motivation.

  48. It would be bad news for Labor if Husar sues as Buzzfeed would have to reveal who leaked Whelans letter and I note he reiterated it wasn’t him in his report so it must be someone high up in Labor’s head office.
    If Buzzfeed decline to reveal their source or say it was anonymous, that wouldn’t help their case one little bit. It’s not like the leak was in the public’s interest.

  49. I wonder if Emma Husar has negotiated any concessions for “going quietly”. Job would be an obvious one, but also possibly some conditions on who would be allowed to stand for Lindsay at the election?

    Despite perhaps being a relative political novice, she strikes me as a very determined and hard-nosed person (both of those adjectives are meant as compliments in this context btw).

  50. Diog

    Journalists go to jail rather than reveal their sources, so Buzzfeed might be asked to reveal who leaked but they are unlikely to comply.

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