The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.
There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.
We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.
Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.
Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.
At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.
Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.
Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.
Henry @ #2748 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 1:05 pm
Adrian often lacks a sense of humour.
Comes from being angry all the time. 🙂
When we had an inexperienced MP elected to a seat Labor had never previously had, with a staff who were inexperienced, the Victorian ALP sent an experienced former electoral officer up to manage the office for the first few months.
As for the public service idea — (i) Husar wasn’t a Minister; (ii) difficult to get experienced public servants to work in offices in rural areas – look at the difficulties Barnaby had getting some to Armidale!
Adrian often lacks a sense of humour.
Comes from being angry all the time.
Shall we dub him “young bemused”?
Harsh, I know, but fuck it it’s time for some Friday chat.
…oh, and there really does need to be an atmosphere of complete trust in an electorate office. Sometimes, to deal with the problems before us, we had to share very personal information about the constituent we were dealing with. For example, one of our regulars was a man most people believed to be a murderer. If we’d had to watch our language when discussing his case, because someone might leak what we were saying, we wouldn’t have been able to effectively deal with his issues.
Re Emma Husar. She was shamefully dealt with. And I note this opinion piece published on Monday, well before today’s reports.
http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/08/06/the-political-assassination-of-emma-husar/
autocrat – three harps is, in my experience, pretty full on. It’s rare to get even one. There are also the six wagner tubas and a little guy who sits at the back for the whole performance and hits a cymbal just once in 80 minutes. That is ART.
Henry @ #2731 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 3:47 pm
Probably the best you can do is highlight and copy whatever you like and then paste that into the comment box. 😎
I don’t use any Apple devices, so somebody else may have some better advice.
Yet the performance of Industry Funds proves the above wrong.
Australian Super started slashing the fees it paid then sacking outside fund managers who didn’t reach benchmark hurdles. It then paried back the fees paid to them even further over a number of years.
Now Australian Super have/ will cut their costs further by bring more of funds management/ placement in house – and they are still in the top ten or so performing Super funds and still beat Retail funds by a big margin.
The Lewd behaviour allegations were separate and distinctly worse than the allegations of poor office management. I don’t see how Emma loses a defo action. I further don’t see how buzzfeed can claim any sort of qualified privilege in relation to them. There was qualified privilege in the employment dispute context, which was confidential, but none when buzzfeed decided to make them public. At that point, Buzzfeed had to be pretty bloody sure they were true. Go for it, Emma.
‘phoenixRED says:
Friday, August 10, 2018 at 3:35 pm
Malcolm Turnbull confirms police investigation into Ben Roberts-Smith
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he is aware of a police investigation into a domestic violence allegation against decorated veteran Ben Roberts-Smith, declining to comment on specifics…’
Yes, yes, yes. But WHEN did Turnbull first find out about it? Turnbull has questions to answer. For example, was Turnbull aware of the allegations while B R-S was doing Father of the Year posturing on behalf of Turnbull?
“If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.”
I’m not sure who wrote this but he or she is unacquainted with reality. It is known that passive management via (for example, investing in index funds) outperforms active management. For example, Gene Fama has shown this repeatedly (and is from the Uni of Chicago, so if anything biased to the right, in fact he is the “Father of EMH”!):
– https://yourstory.com/2017/02/nobel-laureate-eugene-fama/
If one is investing simply for return (as opposed to strategically for some purpose a la Warren Buffett) the last thing one wants are active fund managers: they charge high fees in order to deliver performance inferior to the virtually costless passive approach. The normal term for such people is grifters.
Rather than providing an “incentive for the [fund] managers to perform well” what is needed is for them to be fired.
Last of all, anyone who thinks a pension fund is “an … enterprise” has no understanding of the nature of either enterprise or pension funds, unless perhaps one is talking about a criminal joint enterprise in relation to the worst elements of the funds management (non) industry.
Nice work if you can get it.
I wonder if he gets paid on a piece-work system? Does he get paid the same wages as a flautist or cellist? If so, I bet they’re pissed off at taking all that time to master their instruments when a guy who hits a cymbal once every 80 minutes gets paid the same as they do. Do they make him sit up the back on the tour bus as well? Do they make him do all the laundry, dishes and run errands for them to compensate for his work/income ratio?
Yep. It’s a pretty slow afternoon and I have time on my hands. 😉
Actually, it’s impossible for trustees to do their job properly if they also have to consider the interests of shareholders. There is always a divided loyalty which cannot be bridged. Their sole duty must be to beneficiaries of the trust. Being answerable to shareholders is the absolute antithesis of that. It is absolutely shameful that situation was allowed.
Henry @ #2749 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:05 pm
I know. Hence the …
Someone earlier on (can’t remember who) asked how a super fund that returns profits to its shareholders can possibly be expected to produce a better return than one which is non-profit and returns all earnings to its members.
The line from my previous post about profits providing motivation for better performance is – I kid you not – the actual reason economic rationalists provide when asked that very question. It’s the same pile of Stierscheiße used used to justify hiring a private for-profit company to build, say, a road or a bridge, rather than the government just doing the building itself.
Ante Meridian
.
You did it so well, hence my great relief to read your last sentence 🙂
Phillip Adams
@PhillipAdams_1
So … does anyone now doubt that Husar was effectively slut shamed into early retirement due to a particularly egregious piece of shoddy journalism?
Even if her management practices could not be remediated, exactly what kind of message does this send to women contemplating public office? Especially single mums, ones like Emma with a disabled kid. Especially women who have already been put through the DV mill?
This is a very sad day for Australia.
https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/superannuation-and-smsfs/ioof-chief-chris-kelaher-and-the-one-word-hayne-doesnt-want-to-hear-20180810-h13t50
antonbruckner11 says: Friday, August 10, 2018 at 4:14 pm
autocrat – three harps is, in my experience, pretty full on. It’s rare to get even one. There are also the six wagner tubas and a little guy who sits at the back for the whole performance and hits a cymbal just once in 80 minutes. That is ART.
*****************************************
My Fave – The drummer in Ravel’s Bolero – While performing Ravel’s Bolero, the drummer of the orchestra expresses, without a word, his self-consciousness, restlessness, exasperation and a certain rivalry and resentment for the other percussionists.
There is an SBS version which I can’t play
https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/11798595712/the-drummer-of-ravels-bolero
and a foreign version on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99uEnKTbKYE
Hope one of these works for you
Poroti,
Thanks.
Of course, there’s always a danger when employing irony, that some members of the audience will think it’s serious.
Ante Meridian says:
Friday, August 10, 2018 at 3:12 pm
If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.
_________________________
Not so.
There are innumerable instances of people who are not out to make a profit doing an outstanding job.
The vast majority of nurses, social workers, teachers, and many other service occupations work their guts out just because they love their job and want to do the best they can for their clients.
In my case, the original super fund I was in was fantastic, and was run by knowledgeable amateurs who were unpaid.
Later, not so much. The profit motive meant that profit for the fund was pursued rather than profit for the people in the fund.
I now have a smsf and am very happy with its performance.
See what I mean about irony?
Frydenberg attempts to guilt Labor states into supporting NEG
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/10/neg-draft-legislation/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%2020180810
The Government is so worried about Victorian manufacturing jobs…..like in the car industry….
https://www.afr.com/news/the-neg-why-lily-dambrosio-and-daniel-andrews-dug-their-heels-in-20180809-h13rs6
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2768 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:30 pm
I was gobsmacked when I heard the results of the Whelan Inquiry on the radio on the way back from lunch! Emma Husar was exonerated of ALL the salacious stuff! All I could think about was the two grubs in a cosy cocoon, Alice Workman and Rex Douglas here.
Neither of them will hang their heads in shame. Neither of them have a shred of decency between them.
Gerard Hayes for Lindsay
This time I am not being sarcastic
Ok I am
Same goes double for the Anderson family and Prue Car. In fact, as it was a Labor ladies’ lunch, I was told that it was Prue Car that was the mastermind.
Lower than Barnaby’s pants at the office after work!
A cautionary tale regarding counseling offered to MP Husar and the complainants. At age 50, departing a lecture, I was one of 3 persons assaulted and robbed on campus by a group of young adults. We all required medical attention, in my case 14 stitches above the lip.
Although having taken only one week sick leave, I was required to apply for Workers Compensation so that the employer could reclaim my salary from insurers. Then, as the legal phrase goes, you’re farked. Insurance companies have a single objective: to make certain you won’t cost an extra cent.
Accordingly, I was required to attend monthly sessions with some sort of psychologist under their employ. My wounds were healing well, but I was having exceeding difficulty sleeping for the first time in my life. This insurance bloke was a few years older and insisted that my sleep dysfunction was entirely due to now being in my fifties and nothing to do with the vicious assault.
In the third and final mandatory session, I just sat there silently for 30 minutes. There was no mystery why this insurance fellow had problems with his sleep when that’s what he, daily, perpetrated on victims with high potential for post traumatic symptoms. These Labor Party people need to demand the right to choose their own form of counseling.
Oakeshott Country @ #2778 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:50 pm
And only a grub like you could try and make light of the whole sordid mess.
So the ones who wanted to get rid of Emma won.
C@tmomma @ #525 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:49 pm
It was neither Alice Workman nor myself which leaked the lewd allegations which the Labor ‘investigation’ has dismissed.
Takeaways from PB today:
Jesus was a myth
The media are crap
The four pillars are crooks
The PM is a snake
And, Percussionists are lazy bastards
C@tmomma @ #2777 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:49 pm
So true.
I think that there’s more to the Workman story, as her behaviour is so unprofessional, even for a journalist!
So why do you put the word investigation in quotation marks, Rexy?
adrian @ #534 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:56 pm
She could hardly bury the leaked allegations as that would of course draw the ire of the public for partisan censorship as seen with the Joyce matter.
You’re the one who hangs out with Centre Unity C@t – how does that make you feel
Hey Rex,
What unproven allegations were leaked about Joyce from a journalist and then was run on the news for weeks on end?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alQ0zUjLLmg
adrian @ #535 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:59 pm
The report has been buried, so it has question marks all over it.
Of course she could, Rex.
Journos receive material like this all the time, from people with an axe to grind.
It’s not their job to broadcast every whinge someone who fields hard done by wishes to air.
I’ve previously posted here an example from my own experience, where the local paper did not publish a claim someone was making against me. They didn’t even check with me before making that decision; it’s not hard to recognise a personal vendetta when you see it.
I’m waiting for more irony from ante meridian.
I’m loving the responses.
Most entertaining.
Did anyone else get the impression that Turnbull and Frydenburg have been right royally rogered by Victoria and the ACT on the Neg?
David Crowe is spinning it like a top for the Coalition in the SMH, but even he can’t escape the fact that Turnbull will probably now have to endure the humiliation of it being rejected by his own party room.
Gecko @ #2785 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:55 pm
Also, Rex Douglas is an idiot.
Nicko @ #538 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:01 pm
The CPG has been rightly pilloried for burying the Joyce matter.
Rex Douglas @ #2792 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:01 pm
But you used quotation marks!
Seriously, you have no friggin’ idea how the process works. Have you actually ever been in a workplace?
Rex Douglas @ #2786 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:55 pm
No, but it was Alice who published them without first making any reasonable effort to determine whether or not they were even remotely credible.
She had one (trivially easy) job to do, and she didn’t do it. Lazy journalism, all day long.
Quaedvlieg attacks Abetz for supporting Lloyd but not himself. Is it because Abetz and lloyd are obvious RWNJ buddies and Quaedvlieg is not necessarily in the same mould?