BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

  1. When we had an inexperienced MP elected to a seat Labor had never previously had, with a staff who were inexperienced, the Victorian ALP sent an experienced former electoral officer up to manage the office for the first few months.

    As for the public service idea — (i) Husar wasn’t a Minister; (ii) difficult to get experienced public servants to work in offices in rural areas – look at the difficulties Barnaby had getting some to Armidale!

  2. Adrian often lacks a sense of humour.

    Comes from being angry all the time.

    Shall we dub him “young bemused”?

    Harsh, I know, but fuck it it’s time for some Friday chat.

  3. …oh, and there really does need to be an atmosphere of complete trust in an electorate office. Sometimes, to deal with the problems before us, we had to share very personal information about the constituent we were dealing with. For example, one of our regulars was a man most people believed to be a murderer. If we’d had to watch our language when discussing his case, because someone might leak what we were saying, we wouldn’t have been able to effectively deal with his issues.

  4. Re Emma Husar. She was shamefully dealt with. And I note this opinion piece published on Monday, well before today’s reports.
    http://newpolitics.com.au/2018/08/06/the-political-assassination-of-emma-husar/

    For those unfamiliar with BuzzFeed, it’s the political version of New Idea – and its business model is based on cultural gossip and click-bait, sprinkled with some political news of the day. Its Australian headquarters are housed in a more salubrious part of the Sydney CBD, staffed by young middle-class privileged white kids and, to work there, you need a bit of cultural cache – know how to say the right words, know the right people, are ‘in’ on the latest cool things in the world – and have more attitude than sense.



    Husar has been politically assassinated by a reporter’s ‘coward’s punch’ and the irresponsible journalism that followed. She’s received abusive and offensive emails, had her family house stalked, and received several death threats. We didn’t have Australia’s Jo Cox moment but we’ll never really know how close we came to avoiding it.

    And thank you BuzzFeed. Look at what you’ve become.

  5. autocrat – three harps is, in my experience, pretty full on. It’s rare to get even one. There are also the six wagner tubas and a little guy who sits at the back for the whole performance and hits a cymbal just once in 80 minutes. That is ART.

  6. “If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.”

    Yet the performance of Industry Funds proves the above wrong.

    Australian Super started slashing the fees it paid then sacking outside fund managers who didn’t reach benchmark hurdles. It then paried back the fees paid to them even further over a number of years.

    Now Australian Super have/ will cut their costs further by bring more of funds management/ placement in house – and they are still in the top ten or so performing Super funds and still beat Retail funds by a big margin.

  7. The Lewd behaviour allegations were separate and distinctly worse than the allegations of poor office management. I don’t see how Emma loses a defo action. I further don’t see how buzzfeed can claim any sort of qualified privilege in relation to them. There was qualified privilege in the employment dispute context, which was confidential, but none when buzzfeed decided to make them public. At that point, Buzzfeed had to be pretty bloody sure they were true. Go for it, Emma.

  8. ‘phoenixRED says:
    Friday, August 10, 2018 at 3:35 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull confirms police investigation into Ben Roberts-Smith

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he is aware of a police investigation into a domestic violence allegation against decorated veteran Ben Roberts-Smith, declining to comment on specifics…’

    Yes, yes, yes. But WHEN did Turnbull first find out about it? Turnbull has questions to answer. For example, was Turnbull aware of the allegations while B R-S was doing Father of the Year posturing on behalf of Turnbull?

  9. “If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.”

    I’m not sure who wrote this but he or she is unacquainted with reality. It is known that passive management via (for example, investing in index funds) outperforms active management. For example, Gene Fama has shown this repeatedly (and is from the Uni of Chicago, so if anything biased to the right, in fact he is the “Father of EMH”!):
    https://yourstory.com/2017/02/nobel-laureate-eugene-fama/

    If one is investing simply for return (as opposed to strategically for some purpose a la Warren Buffett) the last thing one wants are active fund managers: they charge high fees in order to deliver performance inferior to the virtually costless passive approach. The normal term for such people is grifters.

    Rather than providing an “incentive for the [fund] managers to perform well” what is needed is for them to be fired.

    Last of all, anyone who thinks a pension fund is “an … enterprise” has no understanding of the nature of either enterprise or pension funds, unless perhaps one is talking about a criminal joint enterprise in relation to the worst elements of the funds management (non) industry.

  10. a little guy who sits at the back for the whole performance and hits a cymbal just once in 80 minutes.

    Nice work if you can get it.

    I wonder if he gets paid on a piece-work system? Does he get paid the same wages as a flautist or cellist? If so, I bet they’re pissed off at taking all that time to master their instruments when a guy who hits a cymbal once every 80 minutes gets paid the same as they do. Do they make him sit up the back on the tour bus as well? Do they make him do all the laundry, dishes and run errands for them to compensate for his work/income ratio?

    Yep. It’s a pretty slow afternoon and I have time on my hands. 😉

  11. Actually, it’s impossible for trustees to do their job properly if they also have to consider the interests of shareholders. There is always a divided loyalty which cannot be bridged. Their sole duty must be to beneficiaries of the trust. Being answerable to shareholders is the absolute antithesis of that. It is absolutely shameful that situation was allowed.

  12. Someone earlier on (can’t remember who) asked how a super fund that returns profits to its shareholders can possibly be expected to produce a better return than one which is non-profit and returns all earnings to its members.

    The line from my previous post about profits providing motivation for better performance is – I kid you not – the actual reason economic rationalists provide when asked that very question. It’s the same pile of Stierscheiße used used to justify hiring a private for-profit company to build, say, a road or a bridge, rather than the government just doing the building itself.

  13. Ante Meridian

    the actual reason economic rationalists provide when asked that very question.

    .
    You did it so well, hence my great relief to read your last sentence 🙂

  14. Phillip Adams

    @PhillipAdams_1

    When Alan Jones returned from his humiliations in London he came to my home and I urged him to learn from the experience – to be more compassionate, less judgemental. In short – to change. And he did. He got worse

  15. So … does anyone now doubt that Husar was effectively slut shamed into early retirement due to a particularly egregious piece of shoddy journalism?

    Even if her management practices could not be remediated, exactly what kind of message does this send to women contemplating public office? Especially single mums, ones like Emma with a disabled kid. Especially women who have already been put through the DV mill?

    This is a very sad day for Australia.

  16. IOOF chief Chris Kelaher and the one word Hayne doesn’t want to hear
    ________________________________________
    IOOF managing director Chris Kelaher was combative in the witness box. (AAP Image/James Ross)

    At the top of the list of words that a witness should never utter at a royal commission must surely be this one: Indifference.

    Clearly, no-one told IOOF chief executive Chris Kelaher, whose combative approach to the questions of counsel assisting Michael Hodge QC on Friday had all the drama of a train wreck.

    Early in his evidence Kelaher was asked by Hodge whether IOOF’s decision to change the structure around its superannuation trustee was driven by an Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority request improve its governance. Or did the board determine to fix things itself?

    Kelaher said the board didn’t see any problems with the existing structure, but it was happy to change if APRA wanted it to.

    As Hodge quizzed Kelaher later on how he was told about breaches of IOOF’s regulatory obligations, he dug the knife in when Kelaher said (remarkably) there was no formal process.

    “It’s a matter of indifference,” he said.

    You could almost feel Hodge’s and Commissioner Ken Hayne’s disapproval. Sure enough, they both served Kelaher’s words back to him, with interest.

    As Hodge quizzed Kelaher later on how he was told about breaches of IOOF’s regulatory obligations, he dug the knife in when Kelaher said (remarkably) there was no formal process.

    “Is it a matter of indifference to you?” Hodge asked. Kelaher assured him it was not.

    Later still, when Hodge quizzed Kelaher as to whether a statement was misleading, Hayne intervened when Kelaher seemed to dismisses the concern.

    “Are you saying it’s a matter of indifference, a matter of no importance?”
    Kelaher back-tracked rapidly.

    Hodge and Hayne were already irritated by IOOF before Kelaher stepped into the box. Earlier on Friday morning, Hodge bluntly told previous IOOF witness Mark Oliver, who flailed through his evidence, that the commission had rejected him as a suitable witness.

    Kelaher was the man they wanted, and having been made to wait, the atmosphere was tense from the word go.

    The IOOF chief, sporting a red tie and with a white handkerchief protruding proudly from his jacket pocket, was mainly grilled over the process by which IOOF compensated super fund members after an error saw it distribute too much money to some clients, at the expense of others.

    Kelaher seemed at times bewildered that anyone would be worried about the detail – the clients were made good, and that’s what mattered.

    “I mean, our overarching aspiration was to make sure that the affected members were made whole with compensation for the time value of money.”

    But Hodge’s entire point was that IOOF was sloppy with details, to the detriment of members.

    He asked Kelaher how it was that board minutes just from last week that the commission demanded were hand written on scraps of paper.

    Hodge asked repeatedly while IOOF had not simply used company funds to compensate members, and why it had instead used the super fund’s general fund to do so. Hodge argued the members were effectively compensating themselves; Kelaher disagreed.

    When Kelaher said that in 2013, IOOF has sort to pursue the NAB Custodian Services, for its role in the over-distribution, Hodge asked him to carefully consider his dates. He later took him to documents proving this didn’t happen until February 2014.

    “I might have been in error earlier,” Kelaher said.

    “You might have said something that wasn’t true. Is that what you mean?”

    “No, no, I might have made a mistake referring to it 2013, that’s all.”

    https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/superannuation-and-smsfs/ioof-chief-chris-kelaher-and-the-one-word-hayne-doesnt-want-to-hear-20180810-h13t50

  17. antonbruckner11 says: Friday, August 10, 2018 at 4:14 pm

    autocrat – three harps is, in my experience, pretty full on. It’s rare to get even one. There are also the six wagner tubas and a little guy who sits at the back for the whole performance and hits a cymbal just once in 80 minutes. That is ART.

    *****************************************

    My Fave – The drummer in Ravel’s Bolero – While performing Ravel’s Bolero, the drummer of the orchestra expresses, without a word, his self-consciousness, restlessness, exasperation and a certain rivalry and resentment for the other percussionists.

    There is an SBS version which I can’t play

    https://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/11798595712/the-drummer-of-ravels-bolero

    and a foreign version on youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99uEnKTbKYE

    Hope one of these works for you

  18. Poroti,

    Thanks.

    Of course, there’s always a danger when employing irony, that some members of the audience will think it’s serious.

  19. Ante Meridian says:
    Friday, August 10, 2018 at 3:12 pm
    If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.

    _________________________

    Not so.

    There are innumerable instances of people who are not out to make a profit doing an outstanding job.

    The vast majority of nurses, social workers, teachers, and many other service occupations work their guts out just because they love their job and want to do the best they can for their clients.

    In my case, the original super fund I was in was fantastic, and was run by knowledgeable amateurs who were unpaid.

    Later, not so much. The profit motive meant that profit for the fund was pursued rather than profit for the people in the fund.

    I now have a smsf and am very happy with its performance.

  20. Frydenberg attempts to guilt Labor states into supporting NEG

    “The Labor states should be focused on one thing: lowering power prices for people in their jurisdiction. Take Victoria for example. There’s nearly 300,000 manufacturing jobs.

    “You have chemical manufacturers, paper manufacturers, small businesses, speak out in recent days, telling the Andrews government to get behind the National Energy Guarantee.

    “We’ve seen an incredible coalition of stakeholders from farmers and miners to manufacturers, and small business, to energy user, and energy consumer groups and the energy industry itself, say it’s time to deliver the National Energy Guarantee,” Mr Frydenberg said.

    …Victorian minister for energy, environment and climate change Lily D’Ambrosio said on Wednesday: “We won’t support any scheme that puts our renewable energy industry and Victorian jobs at risk.

    “We can still get this right – but only if Malcolm Turnbull stares down the climate-crazies in his party and puts a workable scheme on the table that doesn’t hurt local jobs and households,” she said

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/08/10/neg-draft-legislation/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%2020180810

  21. Frydenberg and Turnbull should be on the brink of a triumph, ready to pop champagne corks and declare peace in our energy wars. But they’re just not there yet.

    Standing in their way is a handful of Labor energy ministers led by the smallest person in the room at Friday’s meeting – Victoria’s Lily d’Ambrosio. She’s backed to the hilt by her Premier Daniel Andrews, a single-figure handicap golfer and ex-factional warlord with a hint of The Simpson’s Mr Burns about him and – friends say – a ready line in South Park wisecracks.

    https://www.afr.com/news/the-neg-why-lily-dambrosio-and-daniel-andrews-dug-their-heels-in-20180809-h13rs6

  22. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2768 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    So … does anyone now doubt that Husar was effectively slut shamed into early retirement due to a particularly egregious piece of shoddy journalism?

    Even if her management practices could not be remediated, exactly what kind of message does this send to women contemplating public office? Especially single mums, ones like Emma with a disabled kid. Especially women who have already been put through the DV mill?

    This is a very sad day for Australia.

    I was gobsmacked when I heard the results of the Whelan Inquiry on the radio on the way back from lunch! Emma Husar was exonerated of ALL the salacious stuff! All I could think about was the two grubs in a cosy cocoon, Alice Workman and Rex Douglas here.

    Neither of them will hang their heads in shame. Neither of them have a shred of decency between them.

  23. Same goes double for the Anderson family and Prue Car. In fact, as it was a Labor ladies’ lunch, I was told that it was Prue Car that was the mastermind.

    Lower than Barnaby’s pants at the office after work!

  24. A cautionary tale regarding counseling offered to MP Husar and the complainants. At age 50, departing a lecture, I was one of 3 persons assaulted and robbed on campus by a group of young adults. We all required medical attention, in my case 14 stitches above the lip.

    Although having taken only one week sick leave, I was required to apply for Workers Compensation so that the employer could reclaim my salary from insurers. Then, as the legal phrase goes, you’re farked. Insurance companies have a single objective: to make certain you won’t cost an extra cent.

    Accordingly, I was required to attend monthly sessions with some sort of psychologist under their employ. My wounds were healing well, but I was having exceeding difficulty sleeping for the first time in my life. This insurance bloke was a few years older and insisted that my sleep dysfunction was entirely due to now being in my fifties and nothing to do with the vicious assault.

    In the third and final mandatory session, I just sat there silently for 30 minutes. There was no mystery why this insurance fellow had problems with his sleep when that’s what he, daily, perpetrated on victims with high potential for post traumatic symptoms. These Labor Party people need to demand the right to choose their own form of counseling.

  25. So the ones who wanted to get rid of Emma won.

    Jenny Frecklington-Jones‏ @Triplejay58 · 2h2 hours ago

    Lost count of the MPs and Ministers I worked closely with over many years who had limited or no real life work experience behind them, which had led them to have zero skills for managing people & running their offices. None lost their jobs over this. #auspol #EmmaHusar

  26. C@tmomma @ #525 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:49 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #2768 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    So … does anyone now doubt that Husar was effectively slut shamed into early retirement due to a particularly egregious piece of shoddy journalism?

    Even if her management practices could not be remediated, exactly what kind of message does this send to women contemplating public office? Especially single mums, ones like Emma with a disabled kid. Especially women who have already been put through the DV mill?

    This is a very sad day for Australia.

    I was gobsmacked when I heard the results of the Whelan Inquiry on the radio on the way back from lunch! Emma Husar was exonerated of ALL the salacious stuff! All I could think about was the two grubs in a cosy cocoon, Alice Workman and Rex Douglas here.

    Neither of them will hang their heads in shame. Neither of them have a shred of decency between them.

    It was neither Alice Workman nor myself which leaked the lewd allegations which the Labor ‘investigation’ has dismissed.

  27. Takeaways from PB today:

    Jesus was a myth
    The media are crap
    The four pillars are crooks
    The PM is a snake
    And, Percussionists are lazy bastards

  28. C@tmomma @ #2777 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:49 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #2768 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    So … does anyone now doubt that Husar was effectively slut shamed into early retirement due to a particularly egregious piece of shoddy journalism?

    Even if her management practices could not be remediated, exactly what kind of message does this send to women contemplating public office? Especially single mums, ones like Emma with a disabled kid. Especially women who have already been put through the DV mill?

    This is a very sad day for Australia.

    I was gobsmacked when I heard the results of the Whelan Inquiry on the radio on the way back from lunch! Emma Husar was exonerated of ALL the salacious stuff! All I could think about was the two grubs in a cosy cocoon, Alice Workman and Rex Douglas here.

    Neither of them will hang their heads in shame. Neither of them have a shred of decency between them.

    So true.
    I think that there’s more to the Workman story, as her behaviour is so unprofessional, even for a journalist!

  29. adrian @ #534 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:56 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2777 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:49 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #2768 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:30 pm

    So … does anyone now doubt that Husar was effectively slut shamed into early retirement due to a particularly egregious piece of shoddy journalism?

    Even if her management practices could not be remediated, exactly what kind of message does this send to women contemplating public office? Especially single mums, ones like Emma with a disabled kid. Especially women who have already been put through the DV mill?

    This is a very sad day for Australia.

    I was gobsmacked when I heard the results of the Whelan Inquiry on the radio on the way back from lunch! Emma Husar was exonerated of ALL the salacious stuff! All I could think about was the two grubs in a cosy cocoon, Alice Workman and Rex Douglas here.

    Neither of them will hang their heads in shame. Neither of them have a shred of decency between them.

    So true.
    I think that there’s more to the Workman story, as her behaviour is so unprofessional, even for a journalist!

    She could hardly bury the leaked allegations as that would of course draw the ire of the public for partisan censorship as seen with the Joyce matter.

  30. Of course she could, Rex.

    Journos receive material like this all the time, from people with an axe to grind.

    It’s not their job to broadcast every whinge someone who fields hard done by wishes to air.

    I’ve previously posted here an example from my own experience, where the local paper did not publish a claim someone was making against me. They didn’t even check with me before making that decision; it’s not hard to recognise a personal vendetta when you see it.

  31. Did anyone else get the impression that Turnbull and Frydenburg have been right royally rogered by Victoria and the ACT on the Neg?

    David Crowe is spinning it like a top for the Coalition in the SMH, but even he can’t escape the fact that Turnbull will probably now have to endure the humiliation of it being rejected by his own party room.

  32. Rex Douglas @ #2786 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 4:55 pm

    It was neither Alice Workman nor myself which leaked the lewd allegations which the Labor ‘investigation’ has dismissed.

    No, but it was Alice who published them without first making any reasonable effort to determine whether or not they were even remotely credible.

    She had one (trivially easy) job to do, and she didn’t do it. Lazy journalism, all day long.

  33. Quaedvlieg attacks Abetz for supporting Lloyd but not himself. Is it because Abetz and lloyd are obvious RWNJ buddies and Quaedvlieg is not necessarily in the same mould?

    The former head of the Australian Border Force has blasted the investigation that led to his sacking and called a former Coalition minister a hypocrite for failing to stick up for him.

    Roman Quaedvlieg lost his job five months ago after a drawn-out investigation into claims he improperly helped his girlfriend get a job and failed to disclose their relationship.

    Mr Quaedvlieg, who was previously the ACT’s police chief, has always denied the allegations and was known to be unpleased by how the investigation was managed.

    On Friday, he attacked former employment minister Eric Abetz’s decision to defend former public service commissioner John Lloyd, who was also found to have engaged in misconduct.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/sacked-border-force-chief-blasts-senator-s-hypocrisy-20180810-p4zwpr.html

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