BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

  1. Sceptic
    The RC will have caused a number of strained relationships before it’s all over.

    And just how good is Counsel Assisting. Michael Hodge!

  2. Tacitus mentions “Christus” – though not the name Jesus, it’s clear it’s him.
    Josephus has a single mention of Jesus (as both “Jesus” and “Christ”) that is held by scholarly consensus to be authentic, in the context of him being the brother of James.

  3. I suggest a Royal Commission into whether Jesus existed or not.

    And to determine if in fact he was indeed just a very naughty boy.

  4. If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.

    Furthermore, if unions are allowed to participate in the running of super funds, they are sure to waste members’ money on quixotic causes. And union officials are not trained economists, so they can’t be expected to make the best decisions on how to invest the funds they manage anyway.

    So it’s obvious the great and growing pool of the superannuation funds of the nation’s workers can only be entrusted to the safe expert hands of our strong and reliable banking system.

    You know it makes sense.

  5. BK, Sceptic

    Kelaher’s entire demeanor suggested that he found it incomprehensible that such a young “whipper snapper” should even be allowed to question him – the tone was set from the moment he took the stand.

  6. Ante,
    Rapieresque satire! And, it goes without saying, that the same principles and principals are esssential requirements for a Board of Directors overseeing a charity for environmental protections of, say, the Great Barrier Reef.

  7. Kakadu

    Have to disagree. Christus is a designation of status.

    There is absolutely NO evidence (archaeological or documentary) that the person we call Jesus ever existed.

    His ‘movement’ was chosen later as a focus of ‘advertising and promoting’ a particular group.

    The story of ‘his’ birth is mirrored in myth from 3000 years previously (both in Egyptian myth and from various cultures in what we call the Middle East/Asia Minor) and was always used but these cultures to validate their ‘backstory’ for the power base they were creating.

    The Old Testament and new are full of anachronisms because the storytellers of the time had no concept of evolution and believed everyone spoke/wore/lived the same as they did at the time of writing.

    All discussion of the life of JC should be taken with a grain of salt. The discussions of SKY news and their promotion of the Liberal party are of a similar ilk.

  8. JJ at 2.25:

    Thanks, very interesting. Will be interesting to see if the sidelining of the CRC gets any media attention.

    I suppose if we look after the pennies (projects up to $10M dealt robustly by CRC) we do not have to look after the pounds ($444M) cos they will look after themselves, or something.

  9. And just how good is Counsel Assisting. Michael Hodge!

    Brilliant! He left Kelaher with the last words which were to effect ..” assets of the trust don’t belong to the members”… No they are just there for me & my mates to distribute to fellow board members through exorbitant salaries.

  10. Michelle Rowland
    ‏Verified account @MRowlandMP
    9m9 minutes ago

    Tonightly is a comedy sketch and the ACMA has determined that the skit in question was satirical. It is Mitch Fifield’s attack on the #ABC that is no laughing matter. #auspol

  11. FFS, have the bloody Christ-mythers come out again for their day of bullshit and ignorance peddling? Don’t they know that nobody who has a proper clue agrees with them? And why do they bring their drivel into this place, which is a psephological blog?

    Who knows, but whatever the reason it is completely fucking annoying, and I wish William would shut them the fuck down.

  12. I don’t see the significance of whether Sky Nazi interview went to Vicrail outlets. The fact that Sky produce such crap is the issue for a public authority. Second question – why would Vic Govt be promoting Sky – do we know the financial arrangements

  13. autocrat @ #2717 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    FFS, have the bloody Christ-mythers come out again for their day of bullshit and ignorance peddling? Don’t they know that is nobody who has a proper clue agrees with them? And why do they bring their drivel into this place, which is a psephological blog?

    Who knows, but whatever the reason it is completely fucking annoying, and I wish William would shut them the fuck down.

    So … which side of the discussion are you on?

  14. Diogenes @ #2671 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 2:31 pm

    Doyley
    Cormann now gets to review the accessibility of electorate staff to the employment complaints process. It’s actually quite a serious allegation that Finance is effectively failing to in its duty of care to have processes which provide a safe work place.

    You can pretty well bet on this not going anywhere. The coalition don’t want their own electorate staff running to independent arbiters.

  15. autocrat – Have bought my tickets for Brooky tomorrow night. If I walk into the concert hall and their ain’t three harps on the stage, I’m walking out.

  16. Malcolm Turnbull confirms police investigation into Ben Roberts-Smith

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he is aware of a police investigation into a domestic violence allegation against decorated veteran Ben Roberts-Smith, declining to comment on specifics but declaring that Australia has “zero tolerance” for violence against women.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-confirms-police-investigation-into-ben-roberts-smith-20180810-p4zwrb.html

  17. What side of the argument I’m on isn’t relevant. I just think discussion of the whole subject should be held somewhere more appropriate. Note here.

  18. Autocrat @3:30PM “Who knows, but whatever the reason it is completely fucking annoying, and I wish William would shut them the fuck down.”

    That is rather intolerant. This blog ranges over a wide range of topics. That’s its attraction. From time to time the topics might not interest me (e.g. AFL), but that’s fine, something else will be along soon. Or I could do other stuff.

  19. ajm,

    The trouble for Turnbull with the suggested referral to Dept of Finance is it was he who has demanded Finance gets involved.

    Turnbull has jumped in and bought Finance front and centre and now it has been revealed Finance, the actual employer of the staff, was approached but fobbed them off for whatever reason.

    Good luck to Turnbull if he pushes this further as I am sure Shorten and co are well prepared to prosecute the failure of the Dept of Finance in this matter.

    Turnbull just cannot help himself.

    Cheers.

  20. autocrat – Have bought my tickets for Brooky tomorrow night. If I walk into the concert hall and their ain’t three harps on the stage, I’m walking out.

    Strings aside, isn’t there three of everything? Except those big-arsed tubas of which I think there are four!

    Enjoy the concert, hope it meets your expectations.
    (One of my hopes was to see Abbado conduct Mahler’s 9th, sadly he’s no longer with us so I have to make do with the blu-ray).

  21. “If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.”

    That seems to be a common outlook of the Right, that people are only motivated by money. What about Nurses and Teachers? They get paid, but probably not as much as if they got into real estate or banking. What about volunteers of all types?

    In any case, money-as-motivator doesn’t seem to extend to the Coal face workers. No big incentives for them.

  22. lizzie @ #2717 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 3:24 pm

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/emma-husar-cleared-of-lewd-behaviour-by-labor-investigation-20180810-p4zwqw.html

    1. Can Buzzfeed be sued for defamation?

    I believe the answer to that is yes, in the sense than anyone can be sued for more-or-less anything.

    But what are the odds of actually winning such a case? I have no idea.

    Though I think I vaguely recall some recent ruling to the effect that media outlets can be held accountable for publishing defamatory things that later turn out to be untrue, if it’s the case that they made little to no effort to verify their info before publishing?

  23. @Doyley

    If it’s the same nut cases that Liberal Control over, then you bet you’re bottom dollar they will lie about Emma Husar.

  24. Corporate Governance
    Corporate Governance
    @CorpGovResearch
    ·
    23m
    Commissioner Hayne on top of things – looks like board skills matrix will be in final report as a possible recommendation on why some boards and their members have behaved so carelessly and badly to their stakeholders. #bankingrc

    Looks like a lot of early retirements in Banking & Superannuation industry.

  25. Husar:

    ‘I note the report has cleared me of the most malicious and damaging of allegations, which were not only baseless but leaked to media.

    Having only seen the summary findings in the form of a media statement, I don’t believe any of these should have cost me my reputation, my job, or humiliated me and my children.

    I have acknowledged the difficulties I faced in establishing a new office, despite requesting assistance. I have always been and remain willing to take guidance and help. I will take some time before returning to work to do this.

    I’ve always maintained that anyone has the right to have their complaints heard in the proper forum.

    Instead this has been trial by media, gossip and innuendo.

    I am gutted that the willingness of certain individuals, and certain parts of the media, to defame me on vexatious and unfounded accusations, has caused so much personal, emotional and professional damage to me, so much hurt to those close to me, and political harm to the party I love, have supported and worked so hard for.

    I am confident that, had I been afforded a proper opportunity to respond to all allegations in full, and without simultaneously been subject to public attacks to which I could not respond, I would have been able to put this behind me and to continue serving the people of Lindsay and working towards electing a Shorten Labor Government.

    As it stands, I have done what I could in the interests of the Labor party by announcing I would not recontest the seat of Lindsay.’

  26. the idea of Mandating an office manager seems excellent.I cannot answer for the media in publishing…..but the leaking of things which were untrue…. appears bad and not the actions of people of good will. There is no reason to believe the investigation. was unfair in terms of process or outcome.As the enquiry says the mental health of Both Ms Husar and those who complained is endangered and counselling should be available to all. Some way should exist to care for people involved so that somethi g similar does not repeat.

  27. Who knows, but whatever the reason it is completely fucking annoying, and I wish William would shut them the fuck down.

    Telling Mt Bowe how to run his blog never ends well for the person telling him to do it.

  28. a r,
    Mr and Mrs Anthony Abbott and Mr and Mrs Peter Costello won a tidy fortune against Random House, the publishers of one defamatory allegation made by Bob Ellis in a book. The editors did not check for truthfulness with the Abbotts, Costellos or the person, Roddy Cavalier, whom Ellis had wrongly stated was his source of the gossip.

  29. So we have:
    – Husar is a bad manage: this should surprise no-one and is likely the modal condition for first term MPs
    – Misconduct in her part in sending people to do the shopping – this is more stupid than bad (though it is both)
    – Failure of Department of Finance to investigate the situation properly
    Since she’s leaving anyway, the most interesting thing will be whether the ALP decides to counterattack in relation to the last; it’s likely wiser just to let it slide.

    At a policy level (in case anyone is interested in that) it would also be rather a good idea to relieve MPs of responsibility for managing their staff. In fact a three year (or six year) assignment for mid-ranking public servants would probably be good preparation for those likely to end up having to manage the interface between ministers and staff.

  30. You know…

    Whether or not there existed a real person who got nailed to a cross who later acquired the named Christ is rather irrelevant.

    What matters is the farce that followed centuries later and the religion constructed after.

    Whether or not Jesus existed is a fact that in itself gives no credence to the fairy stories, persistent archaic social customs (with revisions), power structures and the rest of the shemozle we now call a religion.

  31. Emma H seems to have been guilty of not running an efficient or effective office.
    This is not a capitol offence nor all that surprising given she is a novice politician with little experience in these matters. Perhaps she has been let down by the party machine not giving her the support she needed from the get go.

  32. This says it all on the RC..

    Corporate Governance
    Corporate Governance
    @CorpGovResearch
    ·
    19m
    100% so far.
    Stephen Mayne
    @MayneReport
    The Hayne RC is calling 7 retail super funds and 7 industry funds in order to avoid looking politically biased. Frankly, the rorts seem to be 95% in the retail funds. #BankingRC

  33. “If superannuation funds are not run for profit, there’s no incentive for the managers to perform well, so the result will be an inefficient underperforming enterprise.”

    The incentive is to attract more investors. If people see a particular fund manager topping the returns listings year after year, they will (in theory at least) eventually end up putting money with them.

    All of them receive a fee base do the size of the fund. If a fund has $1 billion in funds under management (FUM) and charge a 2% per annum “management” fee, they make $20 million in fees. If a fund has $10 billion in FUM and charges 0.2% in annual fees, they too “earn” $20 million per annum.

    That 1.8% difference in fees though is what helps the latter fund generate higher returns, which attracts more FUM which generates more in revenue for the manager.

    1.8% isn’t a lot over the space of a single year, however with the effects of compounding over a long time frame (20-30 years or more), the end result is substantial.

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