BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

  1. So, Labor have essentially ‘managed’ Husar out as well as bury the full so-called ‘report’.

    Labors proposition for a National Integrity Commission needs to be studied closely to make sure it has teeth.

  2. Antonbruckner11

    Yep. It appears that Husar’s crime was that she probably bit off more than she could chew. It didn’t require a public denegration and shaming of her and her family

  3. Thanks, mate, but that’s one of those brilliant august historical treatises which I’ve already seen.

    No drama. Anytime.

  4. don
    “The Romans recorded pretty much everything, but there are no records of Jesus’ death by crucifixion, which you would expect them to note, nor even of his being a ‘rabble rouser’.”

    To be fair, Roman records are extremely scant regarding Pontius Pilatus – and he certainly existed. The Romans recorded a great deal, but only a small amount has survived. I suspect Jesus existed, but the gospel accounts are not especially reliable (and sometimes contradictory) .

  5. Prof Higgins
    My understanding (and I’m pretty poor on ancient history) is that there is no contemporaneous evidence Jesus existed. Obviously there are numerous New Testament references and the Roman historians Tacitus and Josephus mention him and based on those sources the balance of opinion is that he almost certainly existed.

  6. Good afternoon all,

    The most interesting revelation in the NSW labor media release re Emma is that affected staff first approached the Dept. of Finance with their concerns but nothing was done.

    Turnbull has been jumping around demanding Shorten refer the allegations to that very same department. Perhaps Cormann and Turnbull have questions to answer re the initial response by that department. Especially as that department is the employer of the staff.

    Cheers.

  7. Diogenes @ #2635 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 1:52 pm

    P1
    True. The line about the investigation “generally favouring” the complainant’s perception of her management style being “offensive and unreasonable” isn’t a big help to her though.

    I think we’re back to the status quo that existed before Buzzfeed et. al. jumped on the “Basic Instinct” sexy-sex-time allegations.

    Basically she’s a shitty manager who may have gotten people whose job title is not ‘personal assistant’ to do personal-assistant things and possibly misused funds. The last thing is serious, the middle thing is not good, and shitty managers are a dime a dozen.

    Why all the media frenzy, again?

  8. Not sure why some people want to stick the knife into a single parent with 3 children, with 1 who has a disability…. at the same to being an MP.
    I suggest you need to take a good long hard look at yourself.

  9. Doyley
    I noticed that as well. They dump on Finance twice for not managing the complaints and point out they had no obligation to perform the investigation.
    It would be funny if Husar comes out and says she’s staying on now.

  10. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-10/emma-husar-investigation-finds-staff-unreasonably-managed/10106424

    Emma Husar investigation finds staff subjected to unreasonable management but calls leaks ‘reprehensible’
    By political correspondent Louise Yaxley
    Updated 5 minutes ago

    An investigation into Labor backbencher Emma Husar has found she subjected staff to unreasonable management including disciplinary methods, but that the leaking of complaints against her was reprehensible.

    The New South Wales Labor Party investigation completed by barrister John Whelan said allegations of misuse of public money should be referred to the Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority.

    It noted Ms Husar has already referred herself to the authority when the complaints emerged.

    The report said allegations of sexual harassment and lewd conduct were on the balance of probabilities not supported.

    Mr Whelan’s report found merit to some of the complaints against Ms Husar but said based on the assessment there is not basis for her to resign from Parliament.

  11. With regards to the GBRF fiasco, I haven’t heard much mention of the government’s own Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) program, whose specific remit is to fund large scale (up to $10m/project) academic-government-industry partnerships with a view to either protecting the environment or producing products for profit.
    The program has extremely rigorous application, assessment, milestone reporting and financial accounting rules. I should know, I’ve been both an assessor and an applicant. Some of the centres relevant to the GBR that have been established under this scheme include:
    CRC for Coastal Zone, Estuary and Waterway Management
    CRC for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment
    CRC for The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area
    CRC for Greenhouse Accounting
    CRC for Water Quality and Treatment
    CRC for Catchment Hydrology

  12. Ar
    Obviously someone realised the report would not kill her and leaked the sex stuff. Someone who had access to the letter from Whelan.

  13. [The report said allegations of sexual harassment and lewd conduct were on the balance of probabilities not supported.]

    This conflates two different things:

    (a) the sexual harassment complaints were not proven on the balance of probabilities based on the Briginshaw standard (ie the evidence fell short of the level of persuasion required to proof the matter);

    (b) the lewd allegations did not have any support

  14. Dio,

    Turnbull has made a big deal around Finance becoming involved.

    I am sure Cormann will be very happy with his boss around about now.

    Cheers.

  15. a r says: Friday, August 10, 2018 at 2:17 pm

    Basically she’s a shitty manager who may have gotten people whose job title is not ‘personal assistant’ to do personal-assistant things and possibly misused funds. The last thing is serious, the middle thing is not good, and shitty managers are a dime a dozen.

    Why all the media frenzy, again?

    ***************************************************

    Distraction from the Cash affair and the Reef affair ????

  16. For Bludgers who might have missed it. Under oath, Laurie Oaks made the following damning judgment of our journalists. It appears to be sadly relevant for the unsubstantiable slut shaming allegations against MP Husar:

    “Journalists love stories of sex and political defections. They also like to assume gossip to be fact.”

    Neville Wran was right that some of the mud will always stick.

  17. Doyley
    Cormann now gets to review the accessibility of electorate staff to the employment complaints process. It’s actually quite a serious allegation that Finance is effectively failing to in its duty of care to have processes which provide a safe work place.

  18. As others have pointed out, rabble-rousers with a handful of followers were two bob a dozen in Jesus’s day. Actually, come to think of it, they’re two bob a dozen in any day, including now. The Romans wouldn’t have bothered recording details of every one, if any.

  19. Diogenes
    Re existence/historicity of Jesus, that’s my impression as well.
    (The account by Tacitus is likely authentic, though this has been disputed in the past.)

  20. I think Emmar resigning has enhanced her character especially given the investigation found that she should not be dismissed. As she said, she is only human and has made mistakes.

    She has taken a stand, decided her family is most important and has indirectly told the MSM and others to stick it where the sun don’t shine.

    Cheers.

  21. Dr Glorious Pecora‏ @noplaceforsheep · 4m4 minutes ago

    So Husar is an unskilled manager. There’s solutions for that. But not if you’re woman publicly accused of sexual lewdity & harassment by the media. This is one of the most shameful attacks on I’ve seen on a woman by any media, ever.

  22. Dio,

    Bingo !

    Turnbull has dragged Finance into the whole thing and put them front and centre. Apparently, Finance has not met the standards of which it is required.

    Cheers and a great day to all

  23. Diogenes,
    Thank you for responding. Josephus and Tacitus became adults about the earliest time that the New Testament chronicles of Jesus Christ were supposedly written in the middle of the First Century C. E.. My avidity for this topic is undiminished.
    Cheers.

  24. Why all the media frenzy, again?

    An easy question:
    Forces within the NSW Right wanted her gone and the media were useful fools

  25. Diogs,

    I remember Turnbull announced his intention to resign from Parliament after he lost the leadeship. He even did his valedictory speech in the House. He was then prevailed upon by the likes of Howard to change his mind. And, the rest, as they say, is history.

    So, the precedent is there!Another Turnbull broken promise!

  26. Has the LNP reached peak absurdity on energy?

    simon holmes à court‏ @simonahac · 1h1 hour ago

    btw, gov’s modelling of #NEG assumes the following *don’t* happen:
    • tesla megabattery in SA(!)
    • SA’s #VPP
    • VRET & QRET
    • tassie’s ‘battery of the nation’
    • batteries on households
    • any more than 4 wind turbines constructed after 2021
    • any solar farms built after 2021

  27. One thing that the Husar reports highlights is how loose Parliamentary guidelines are for Politicians.

    We’ve seen this in the past with travel and expense entitlements.

    It seems there are too many grey areas which are left up to the individual Parliamentarian.

  28. Was Simon (great name) Holmes à Court writing an opinion piece for the Guardian readership or a covert polite private letter to Katherine Murphy suggesting she take off her blinkers, tune in to Sanity FM, smell the roses and go for a long walk through the hall of mirrors?

  29. Re: Emma Husar : Should shifty Mal have known about the beetrooter beetrooting all over Canberra? ScoMo et al: Look over there! brown people! JUST ASK THE F&^%$G QUESTION YOU BASTARDS CPG…

  30. lizzie @ #2679 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 11:38 am

    Does each MP’s office contain an Office Manager, separate to political staffers? That would seem mandatory.

    I’ve thought that from the beginning as a solution to any management issues.

    With the amount of time they would spend out of the office having someone else in control of the day to day functions within the office makes sense. 🙂

  31. One thing that really annoys me about this whole thing is that it’s been handled so badly. Huge amounts of probably needless suffering for Husar and her complainant staff (obviously some of which can be blamed on each other). There should have been an “adult in the room” (either from Labor or Finance) who stepped in and managed it. There is no indication from the report that anyone tried to do this. Instead this type of crap went on and both sides are the losers. The process is the punishment and it’s way out of proportion with the crime.

  32. Bk

    The Royal Commission has laid bare the total arrogance of Chris Kelaher.
    I’m betting the RC recommends total separation between all retail super boards & their holding companies ( Banks)

  33. It appears IOOF may have used members funds to compensate members for a mistake!

    IOOF members compensated themselves, Hodge says

    Senior counsel assisting the commission Michael Hodge QC goes for the jugular straight after lunch, accusing IOOF of using members’ funds to pay compensation to members.

    Mr Hodge maintains that the general reserve is part of the pool of members’ funds, and therefore using it to fund part of the compensation for reduced distributions is effectively the members compensating themselves.

    Mr Kelaher rejects that the general reserve is part of the pool of member funds.

    However, he agrees with Mr Hodge that the company had the alternative to fund the compensation out of its own corporate resources (i.e. out of potential profits).

    Michael Hodge accuses Questor of not putting its members’ interests first, which would breach the super trustees’ duties to put member interests above all else.

    Mr Kelaher’s time in the stand concludes his examination with the following exchange.

    Kelaher: “At the end of the day that over distribution was compensated for members in full.”

    Hodge: “It wasn’t compensated in full, you used the members’ money to compensate them, you know that, don’t you?”

    Kelaher: “No, they’re your words.”

    Michael Janda 27 minutes ago
    (Updated: 1 minute ago)

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-10/banking-royal-commission-superannuation-live-blog/10104990

  34. No, no, no. The reference to Jesus in Josephus is believed to be an interpolation by a scribe a couple of hundred years later. Tacitus? I just think he talks about the Jesus movement, doesn’t he? Not Jesus himself.

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