The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.
There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.
We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.
Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.
Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.
At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.
Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.
Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.
On the ‘banning’ of SKY.
WA PM said there was no need to copy Vic because people were too busy with their own affairs to watch the screen.
The advertisers will love that!
Pretty desperate stuff from Turnbull!
____
Matt
There’s a reason for that.
Matt31 – Thanks. I’m really starting to wonder if the Libs might have to give Malcolm the hook. A few bad polls and he may be toast. I never thought that would happen. But this is such a stuff up.
antonbruckner11 @ #2549 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 11:44 am
Because the banks believed that Kenneth Hayne would be as tame and complicit as the last guy who ran the TURC? 🙂
Thanks, lizzie and BiGD. 🙂
Whoa! Really? So $444m = 10 600MW SMRs? Wouldnt that almost halve our electricity sector emissions?
Shane Wright tweets
Sshhh … don’t tell anyone but the RBA reckons an increase in renewable supply will put downward pressure on power prices… From today’s SOMP https://twitter.com/swrightwestoz/status/1027734709285969920/photo/1
lol
So trying to work with states was a bluff which has been called by Andrews government :
The Sydney Morning Herald
Verified account @smh
8m8 minutes ago
Breaking: Turnbull government to push on with energy guarantee without states’ sign-off http://ow.ly/n8my30llxEN | @p_hannam @LatimerCole
Speaking of nuclear, that’s what I reckon next week’s Coalition party room meeting will be now. 😀
Going off like a firecracker!
RN Breakfast
Verified account @RNBreakfast
1h1 hour ago
Opposition leader Bill Shorten is set to announce the Labor government will deploy an extra 100 Centrelink workers to support farmers in drought-affected areas.
Cat
Yep. Step up Mr Abbott and Mr Joyce
Shane Wright
Verified account @swrightwestoz
5m5 minutes ago
Sshhh … don’t tell anyone but the RBA reckons an increase in renewable supply will put downward pressure on power prices… From today’s SOMP
Whoa! Really? So $444m = 10 600MW SMRs? Wouldnt that almost halve our electricity sector emissions?
A huh.
But nuclear is illegal in Aus, and it will take 6-10 years to build them, let alone site them.
But eastern Vic and the NSW south coast are well suited to it, being close to large pumped hydro reserves and lots of load.
SA could take one or two if a second Bass straight cable were built to Tas, assuming Tas goes ahead with the “battery of the nation” idea. QLD would likewise need a stronger connection to NSW to handle the flat generation profile.
Take that, Josh!
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/frydenberg-to-push-on-with-energy-guarantee-without-states-sign-off-20180810-p4zwnb.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq
😆
Never ever assume that those sitting atop our banks (all banks and particularly the smaller banks) have the ability to manage the business they are charged to manage
The inclusion of the superannuation funds manager business in the Terms of Reference agreed between the banks and the government was exclusively to target Unions – and our bank executives were so dumb as to not know what is now being examined
The government has shot itself in the foot
The banks have shot themselves in the foot
Labor should reconvene the RC adding to the Terms of Reference
And in terms of those you associate with in the work force I have no contact with anyone – my social circle being exclusively those who at one time or another had the unfortunate circumstance of me as their bank manager, which I continue to be constantly reminded of!!
Yes yes. The devil is in the detail. You dont need to tell me that after watching closely the debacle of the SA Fuel Cycle RC and the ‘citizens’ jury.
Time Magazine tweets
Stormy Daniels lawyer Michael Avenatti tells Iowans he’s “exploring a run for the presidency” https://ti.me/2OYrmFl
Huge day in Go Dau today.
They have finally entered the late 20th century and got their first Supermarket.
No more 20 minute rides in the rain, now it’s just a quick dash 500 metres down the road.
Off to check it out now.
Xin Chao!!! 🙂
Matt31 says:
Re ‘Reafgate”. A most excellent typo of #reefgate
antonbruckner11 @ #2549 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 9:44 am
The term you are looking for is clanger.
SK
Yes yes. The devil is in the detail. You dont need to tell me that after watching closely the debacle of the SA Fuel Cycle RC and the ‘citizens’ jury.
__________________________________
Perhaps we could build them and then repurpose the Wind Farm Commissioner to deal with the locals.
Liars always lie.
On energy policy Trumble is yet again demonstrating his appalling judgement. The states have him by the balls on the issue yet he continues to antagonise them.
@spudbean tweets
@Tony_Burke The only thing on the endangered watch list is this rotten to the core government, and hopefully they’ll go extinct at the next election. #auspol #reefgate
Because the banks believed that Kenneth Hayne would be as tame and complicit as the last guy who ran the TURC?
_________________________
Because idiot Trumble believed that ex-High Court judges were all like Dyson Heydon. If there was one thing Abbott did well, it was to identify and appoint henchmen to do dirty work. Trumble is too poor a judge of character (good and bad) to be able to do that.
TPOF says:
Plus they did not count on Truffles’ ability to fwark up the traditional nobbling of a RC by way of terms of reference .
Issue de jour
Grimace
On energy policy Trumble is yet again demonstrating his appalling judgement. The states have him by the balls on the issue yet he continues to antagonise them.
____________________________________
It’s funny how even the grimmest situations create a bright side. If Trumble hadn’t been given such a soft ride by the CPG who live in his bubble – especially Leigh Sales – he might twig that his genius powers of bluff and bullying might not work with everyone and in all situations. To me, the States not supporting the NEG without the Government actually locking it down internally (where there are loud and unmuzzled voices saying they will oppose it in the party room) was a no-brainer. Indeed, I think the Coalition held states only came on board when it was clear that they could play politics by attacking Labor without being locked into a formless and unpredictable policy.
Quite a bit late to the party with this discussion, but during the last Federal Election campaign the McDonalds in Golden Grove (SA) had Sky News on the TV, broadcasting to its many customers, every day.
Tony Zappia still won Makin, though. Suck on that, Murdoch! 😉
Cassidy seem quite fired up this week!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1027699922206842880
Evidently the train stations didn’t show the Cottrell interview which is kind of a problem for Allan.
Diog
She said she’d had many complaints over months from the public.
Seems MT’s Chinese accent ain’t so swish, according to Kevin.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-s-grovelling-mea-culpa-on-china-risks-harming-australia-20180810-p4zwov.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq
Diogenes
Nope. Allan said they won’t broadcast an outlet that showed that interview. She did not say that interview was aired on the train stations.
Just like the advertisers are saying. Its a reaction to it being shown at all. Not supporting outlet that did broadcast
As a business they are expected to make a profit, but as a super fund they are expected maximise the returns to the funds members.
Perhaps I am not financially literate, but that is never something I could understand, how can a retail fund outperform a well managed industry fund.
The Hill
Ohio race narrows as election officials find hundreds of uncounted votes in district previously won by Trump http://hill.cm/kR2TF00 https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1027744852648374273/photo/1
Link is to photo of Trump
Sprocket … I was 100% with Richo until he said the answer was to the Lib’s problems was … Tony Abbott!. What a larf. Still, the comments below the article are fantastic. All the greatest crazies in the country gather behind Uncle Rupe’s paywall. It is a sight to behold.
Just a recap of the SmearStralian quotes..
“The Australian understands Mrs Turnbull concedes she knows Mr Fitzgerald but says she has not seen him for more than three years and cannot “recall” discussing the Great Barrier Reef Foundation with him.
“Mrs Turnbull is not a director of the European Australian Business Council and has not been for more than a year,” a spokesman for the Prime Minister said.
“The PM’s parliamentary disclosures reflect this. (Mrs Turnbull) has not spoken directly with either man for several years, and does not recall discussing the funding of the Great Barrier Reef Foundation with them.”
Well this is lawyered-up speak. ‘Has not spoken directly with either man for several years…’ ‘does not recall discussing the funding of the GBRF with them..’
Neither of these answer the question ‘Did these ex-GoldmanSachs bagmen contact you, and suggest a scheme whereby their GreenWashing Charitable Foundation would accept a truckload of taxpayer’s dollars? Upfront, in cash, no questions, no tender? And can you get Malcolm to get it funded through the correct channels before we trouser the loot?’
Malcolm is looking rattled today, talking all about post the alleged unsolicited bid by the GPRF Goldman Sachs old boys- how good it is for the reef, how scientists think it’s a good thing, the 98npage agreement- sorry Mal, we want to know why you chose and pushed through the GBRF.
Wow. We need more of exactly what Barrie Cassidy said about Turnbull today.
Should have thrown I. Utegate for good measure
While the big issues today are #reefgate and #neg, Grattan of course goes for:
“‘As Keating said, if you want a friend in politics, get a dog!’
Did Keating have a pet? I dont see Keating with a pet.”
Keating had Laurie.
Also, I would add these days, if you have a dog to keep you company in politics be sure to clean up your dog’s shit yourself!
I imagine some fans on here would say ‘if Keating had a dog it would clean up its own sh!t’.
G’day
Just caught up with the Ben Roberts-Smith article in the SMH.
Maybe I’m not getting something, but on the surface this seems to be a really nasty, unnecessary sort of hatchet job.
The guy is under formal investigation, with the report expected to be released in a couple of months. So how is it appropriate for all these allegations to be aired now in a trial-by-media? (Similar to Workman’s job on Husar, for which she at least had the excuse that the complainants believed that the investigation had stalled.)
And, added to that, some pretty salacious stuff about alleged events at a night at the Great Hall in Canberra. And all of this information clearly coming to the journos from people who have an axe to grind.
Regardless of the outcome of the Inspector-General’s inquiry, the reputation of this man has now been publicly kicked to death by army boots. Surely the time for this article to come out was after the inquiry was completed?
Or, as I said earlier, am I not getting something?
A_E: “Keating had Laurie.”
And Leaping Leo.