BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. Good Morning

    What a great day. Labor flexing its power to remind the right wing they don’t have sole rule of the roost. They really need to have Labor on board and must work to have Labor on board with the NEG.

    That means no embedding coal in the NEG. 🙂

  2. On the other hand, I reckon most of the rest of us are happy go in the dark for 5 hours every two decades if it cuts a few hundred dollars a year from our power bills.

    Nope, nope, nope, a key ideological component of the right is all the power you want, all the time.
    Any interruption for whatever reason cannot be countenanced. Not for technical, practical reasons, but because it goes against their world view.

  3. A far cry, it would appear, from the GBRF instance.

    No slushy fund raising parties BK?

    I wonder how other groups like Greening Australia feel. Scrimping and saving, on low pay, doing it for love, begging pleading, writing exhaustive tenders for small grants. I checked and it seems Greening Australia were bigger than GBRF – they didnt need flashy multinational Rio Tinto or Goldman Sachs execs to grow and get things done. But that has all changed. If you want grants – get in a multinational exec or 5 with contacts. Make sure you treat them right.

  7. guytaur @ #2504 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 10:12 am

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will hold a radio interview with Clairsy, Matt & Kymba, Mix 94.5 at 10:15am AEST #auspol

    No need to listen – I’ll tell you how it will go …

    Mal: “What did Shorten know about Emma Husar and when did he know it?”

    Interviewer: “What did the Great Barrier Reef Foundation know about your gift of $444 million and when did they know it?”

    Mal: “Bill Shorten can’t be trusted!”

    Interviewer: “What did you know about Barnaby’s disgraceful behaviour and when did you know it?”

    Mal: “Bill Shorten lies!”

    … etc … etc …

  8. Nope, nope, nope, a key ideological component of the right is all the power you want, all the time.
    Any interruption for whatever reason cannot be countenanced. Not for technical, practical reasons, but because it goes against their world view.

    🙂

    But seriously, tell ’em to… get their own portable generator. It burns fossil fuel too.

  9. A sad reflection of political reality:

    A senior Labor figure, who has been involved in the party machine for the best part of two decades, this week lamented that he has never had a more lonely job than as an MP.

    “We are all just on the bus together and when it stops, we will just go our separate ways. We pretend, but we aren’t friends and when I get out of politics, I will probably never see most of my colleagues again. That’s the reality,” he said.

  11. Interesting POV C@t-

    However, from my observations most retired Labor MPs retain a strong relationship with a small selection of close colleagues when they retire.

    The ones that don’t have usually flamed out and are holding grudges.

    However, there are a few that effectively severe all ties & who didn’t leave on bad terms.

  14. I wonder how many nuclear power plants (or any other currently non-competitive zero emission generation) would become viable with a $444m subsidy or guarantee? And how much would that reduce our electricity sector emissions? Allowing us to pressure, through example and coercion, other western States to do likewise, reducing global emissions, saving the reef from its most serious threat.

    Oh. No. That wont work. Coal! Dammit. As you were Malcolm. Give the money away to shade clothing small fragments of the reef that only the very wealthy will be able to enjoy while you placate your backbenchers with more Coal! so you can stay leader for a bit longer.

  15. Writer Greg Olear on “Dirty Rubles”: Trump is “gravest existential threat” to America in 150 years

    Greg Olear decided only a fiction writer could tell the story of a president who’s “been mobbed up for decades”

    The crimes of Trump are much worse than even many of his opponents believe. How deep does his criminality run, and what should Americans realize, especially those who feel “bored” or confused by the Russian collusion story?

    I think it’s hard for people to square the avuncular guy on TV who cracked jokes and fired people with the real Donald J. Trump. The truth is, the guy’s been mobbed up for decades, with ties to both La Cosa Nostra and Russian organized crime. Trump is a money launderer for the latter, and has been for quite some time. “Money laundering” sounds cute, like something Danny Ocean and his merry men do, but it’s a euphemism for something unspeakable. The Russian mob has become so vast and successful because it eagerly participates in the worst of the worst: human trafficking, child pornography, sex slavery, opioids, illegal arms deals, blood diamonds — all the grisly, awful stuff that Trump accuses MS-13 of doing. By taking those dirty rubles and making them legitimate, Trump is a party to all of that.

    MORE :
    https://www.salon.com/2018/07/28/writer-greg-olear-on-dirty-rubles-trump-is-gravest-existential-threat-to-america-in-150-years/

  16. C@tmomma,
    A warning worth requoting is this one I heard from the NSW Parliament Labor Party Whip many decades ago: “We have no friends here. Only common enemies.”

  17. P1

    Nah no need. Media will report any gaffes. KK has done excellently. It really has reached gate status on the reef funding when 2GB is releasing the attack dogs

  20. Capital Giving
    ‏ @LDH999
    30m30 minutes ago

    Capital Giving Retweeted ACOSS

    An income does not guarantee a home – sobering statistic #HomelessnessWeek

  21. Donald Trump has obliterated his weekly dishonesty record.

    The U.S. president made 132 false claims last week, 19 per day, almost five times his average. That shatters his previous record of 103 false claims in a week, which he set in June.

    Trump might have been expected to set a new record. He has grown steadily more dishonest over the course of his term, and he held three campaign rallies last week, the type of event where he is most prone to frequent lying.

    But Trump was also extremely dishonest the week prior, during which he gave speeches but did not hold rallies. He made 76 false claims that week, good for fourth-most of his term.

    July was Trump’s most dishonest month yet, with 280 false claims in all. His previous monthly record: 268, for June.

    https://www.thestar.com/news/world/analysis/2018/08/09/trump-obliterates-his-dishonesty-record-132-false-claims-last-week-280-for-july.html

  23. How did Mal go with the FM zanies? He’s the sort of bloke who would relate well to their audience, being the knock about fella he is.

  24. phoenixRED @ #2524 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 10:45 am

    July was Trump’s most dishonest month yet, with 280 false claims in all. His previous monthly record: 268, for June.

    It’s exactly like watching the climate records fall as temperatures rise.

    Every month is a new record. Every year eclipses the one before it. You think people will finally take notice and act, yet they never do.

  25. As Keating said, if you want a friend in politics, get a dog!

    Did Keating have a pet? I dont see Keating with a pet.

  26. I wouldn’t expect anything of any interest or consequence to come from a spot on a commercial FM breakfast show. They aren’t grilling interviews, they are almost always nothing more than PR exercises.

  27. On the other hand, I got to attend a few caucus get togethers under Bracks/Brumby – everyone seemed really pleased just to have a chance to catch up. Having gone through the Kennett years together, however, might have created a different vibe.

    (And Julia Gillard socialised with several former Labor MPs when she left Parliament, going on a shopping trip with Nicola Roxon, for example).

  29. Parker Solar Probe: NASA’s mission to solve a fundamental puzzle of physics

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-08-10/parker-solar-probe-nasas-mission-to-solve-secrets-of-the-sun/10070422

    A desperate attempt to harness the total energy output of the sun to fuel the Anti_Bullshit addon for Firefox and Chrome. Yes, I know this would be a devastating blow to my posting efforts.

    Local scientist (Brown Bear and Bobo Bear) say the chances of success are vanishingly small – better to take selected passengers on the mission.

    Winners of the weekly and monthly Arseholes of the Week prizes will be offered free seats on this once in a lifetime trip to see the Sun. 🌞
    ✌😵

  32. Surely, it’s like going to work. You’re very friendly with everybody in the work environment but you very rarely see them outside of work and very rarely stay in touch after you leave.

  34. NEG ON DEATH BED:

    Political Alert
    ‏ @political_alert
    18s18 seconds ago

    The Victorian Government has withheld support on the proposed National Energy Guarantee until it ‘supports lower bills, lower emissions and more renewable energy jobs for Victoria’ #springst #auspol

  36. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2511 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 10:27 am

    Interesting POV C@t-

    However, from my observations most retired Labor MPs retain a strong relationship with a small selection of close colleagues when they retire.

    The ones that don’t have usually flamed out and are holding grudges.

    However, there are a few that effectively severe all ties & who didn’t leave on bad terms.

    I should’ve mentioned it came from this article:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/can-real-people-survive-the-brutal-world-of-politics-20180809-p4zwi7.html

  38. Yep, this is a major problem with for profit businesses running super funds.

    As a business they are expected to make a profit, but as a super fund they are expected maximise the returns to the funds members.

    IIML pays IOOF for services IIML provides to itself

    The commission hears evidence that the money the fund managers pay to IOOF goes to the company, not back to IIML (i.e. back into members’ funds).

    It also hears about an agreement that appears to show IIML paying another IOOF company for services that IIML provides to itself.

    The key question that emerges from this morning’s hearing (similar to NAB’s case study) is how for-profit superannuation providers reconcile the profit motive with the duty to act solely in the best interests of members.

    I happened to stumble across this document, a register of IIML directors’ duties and interests, which highlights how many conflicts and potential conflicts of interest there are.

    Michael Janda 57 minutes ago
    (Updated: 57 minutes ago)

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-10/banking-royal-commission-superannuation-live-blog/10104990

  39. SK,

    I wonder how many nuclear power plants (or any other currently non-competitive zero emission generation) would become viable with a $444m subsidy or guarantee?

    I put some numbers up the other night for a US case. NuPower, maker of SMRs, required only a US$33M subsidy for their first development site in Utah, for a ~600MW plant (equivalent one unit at Loy Yang).

    Also check out https://www.brightnewworld.org/

  42. Of course the spin the LNP will put on the Labor decision to know what they are voting for will be that Labor is folding into Greens blackmail.

    Anything to distract from the real impact political division in the party room is having on good policy outcomes

  44. Imagine how the Banking RC would’ve blown the roof off the banks and Industry Super Funds if Labor had written the Terms of Reference for it!

  45. Never mind the story accompanying this image, it’s the image of Trump Jr itself that says it for me. That sneer is a glimpse inside the Trump family. My visceral reaction is “What an offensive little prick.” The big D just hides it better.

    (From RAWSTORY 09 Aug 2018, “Donald Trump Jr posts fake approval ratings graphic to falsely claim his dad is more popular than Obama” https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/donald-trump-jr-posts-fake-approval-ratings-graphic-falsely-claim-dad-popular-obama/ )

  46. Guytaur – Malcolm can spin all he likes. But not getting the NEG up is a bad defeat for him. People don’t want excuses, they want results. Further, people are really starting to become terrified of our frying planet. They want ambition, not bullshit.

  47. C@tmomma @ #2543 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:39 am

    Does the NEG still go to the Coalition party room if the Labor States and Territories nix it?

    That will probably be a condition of the States reconsidering it.

    A major problem is the possibility that they could come to an agreement which then collapses in the Government Partyroom.

  48. Russian mining firm puts Trump’s face on its asbestos products

    As US officials decide against banning product, producer Uralasbest puts Trump ‘seal of approval’ on pallets

    Uralasbest, one of the world’s largest producers and sellers of asbestos, has taken to adorning pallets of its product with a seal of Trump’s face, along with the words “Approved by Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States”.

    The move follows the US Environmental Protection Agency’s recent decision not to ban new asbestos products outright. The EPA said it would evaluate new uses of asbestos but environmental groups have criticized the agency for not going further by barring them on public health grounds.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/11/asbestos-trump-face-seal-uralasbest-russia

  49. Cotmomma – I still can’t get over how the banks insisted that the super industry be roped into the RC and the bank’s super funds have got butchered while the industry funds walk away squeaky clean. Stupidity on steroids and monument arrogance.

  50. At a presser a short time ago, Turnbull was obviously asked a question in relation to Reafgate. I didn’t hear the question, but the answer went something like: Kristina Keneally, having wrecked New South Wales, is trying to undermine funding for the health of the Great Barrier Reaf. Pretty desperate stuff from Turnbull!

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