BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  2. “It’s not “one size fits all” says Innes Willox on ABC, fearing a return to centralised wage-fixing.”

    Why isn’t it one size fits all? Inflation affects us all equally, but our bargaining power is unequal. So centralised bargaining makes sense.

  4. sprocket_ @ #2322 Thursday, August 9th, 2018 – 7:09 pm

    “New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) is slamming conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch and Fox News, saying that “we would be a more unified country” without their influence.

    “If you could remove News Corp from the last 25 years of American history, we would be in an entirely different place……

    Fry & Laurie covered that some years ago –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHZ1gfmyhgk

  5. Reefgate looks like the gift that will keep giving. Truffles needs to look for a circuit breaker.
    Half a billion to a few rich buddies because he likes the cut of their jib isn’t a way to run a government.

  7. Murdoch’s Hun is at fever pitch today attacking the Victorian government. Also they seem very upset that the Police Commissioner refuses to comply with their edict that “African gangs” are causing massive mayhem and are a threat to everyone in Victoria.

  8. Diogenes @ #2455 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:29 am

    Reefgate looks like the gift that will keep giving. Truffles needs to look for a circuit breaker.
    Half a billion to a few rich buddies because he likes the cut of their jib isn’t a way to run a government.

    Turnbull will go wit, “Bill Shorten has questions to answer”!

  9. Can’t help noticing the male/female contrast between the reactions to accusations of misbehaviour between Barnaby (I’ve been a bad boy but I’ve confessed so now I deserve sympathy) and Bhathal/Husar (for the sake of my family I’m resigning).

  10. Fry & Laurie covered that some years ago –

    Unfortunately this is not the full clip which showed how better off the UK would be if ‘rupert’ had never been born.

    sigh…..

  11. Taylormade @ #2428 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 5:52 am

    TRANSPORT MINISTER TOLD FIX THE TRAINS., NOT THE NEWS.

    Love this headline in the Herald Sun today as a result of a survey on public transport. I also agree with it. As a commuter on the Geelong line for the past 4 months my main priority is on getting a seat not worrying about what news coverage they use. Standing in the aisle is playing havoc with my lower back.

    Much ado about nothing.

    I’m sure the transport minister can walk and chew gum at the same time. It takes (maybe) all of 30 seconds to change the channel on some TV’s, so it’s not like the trains would run any better had they not done that. And it should be worth (maybe) 30 seconds to ensure that Nazis don’t get free public airtime.

  14. lizzie @ #2459 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 8:42 am

    Can’t help noticing the male/female contrast between the reactions to accusations of misbehaviour between Barnaby (I’ve been a bad boy but I’ve confessed so now I deserve sympathy) and Bhathal/Husar (for the sake of my family I’m resigning).

    It’s because the men push on, writing their own narrative of redemption and no one challenges it, or ignores them and starves them of the public oxygen they are craving to get back into the spotlight.

    The women just want it all to go away and so they go away.

  15. It’s good to see the Herald Sun havev it’s priorities right as usual……

    Meanwhile, surely Turnbull and Frydenberg should do the right thing and resign from their positions due to incompetent corruptive conduct.

    And this says it all

    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    The ⁦@GBRFoundation⁩ spent 42.5c in every dollar it raised on administration costs in the decade – and that’s before ⁦@TurnbullMalcolm⁩ gave them another $44m for admin in his $444m #reefgate giveaway

    The story from ⁦@bennpackham⁩ : (link: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/reef-charity-spends-big-on-admin/news-story/46094e50c746de14471051f43da2216c) theaustralian.com.au/national-affai…

  16. Kristina Keneally‏Verified account @KKeneally · 34m34 minutes ago

    “It takes a special sort of incompetence to see administration fees running so high and say, ‘That’s the sort of organisation we should send half a billion dollars to.’ “ – @Tony_Burke

  21. Snap Steve777, I also wasn’t sure about the last rhyme in Mark David’s poem.

    The AFR article on Ian Silk, head of Australian Super and his appearance at the banking RC, is an excellent indicator of how the industry finds are traveling in the commission, so far pretty good.

  23. AshGhebranious‏ @AshGhebranious · 22m22 minutes ago

    Chris Uhlmann claims the NEG would prevent what happened in South Australia. I find it hard to believe that this agreement will prevent strong winds from knocking down transmission towers and shutting down an interconnector as a result #auspol

  25. It’s hard to believe, but Frydenberg actually promoted the Fordham interview on his twitter account. Such is his hubris or stupidity.

  26. Apparently Turnbull’s $444 million gift to the GBR mob is a “partnership” according to their website.

    They have revamped their website – the pictures are the same but there is a lot of very defensive language including the claim of a partnership with the government.

    Presumably they will provide employment for a lot of PR people.

    https://www.barrierreef.org

  30. Chris Uhlmann claims the NEG would prevent what happened in South Australia.

    Ok, let’s say it does work this way.

    The question then is, should we be spending exorbitant amounts of money keeping a bulk power system so secure that it can withstand a very rare weather event?

    High value loads can insure themselves by investing in real hedges – like a (working) diesel backup generator. It’s a private cost protecting a private gain.

    On the other hand, I reckon most of the rest of us are happy go in the dark for 5 hours every two decades if it cuts a few hundred dollars a year from our power bills.

  31. BK,
    Muchas gracias, again, for your daily assiduity and perspicacity. It has become the first port of call after stoking up my steam-driven computing engine.

    Today’s David Rowe masterpiece showing Turnbull covered with GBR starfish is one of his sardonic best.

    Sadly, that newspaper which Rowe put on Turnbull’s desk constitutes the impossible dream in a country whose dead-tree editions are rotten with Murdochian mendacity and stink of Fairfaux false-equivalence. Poor fellow, our country.

  36. Lizzie and KK@8:5am
    Leigh Sales to MT on 7:30: why did you select GBRF for Great Barrier Reef protection?
    MT (as usual) : Because they are the best
    LS: How do you know that they are the best?
    MT: Because we selected them

  38. C@tmma@9:41am
    Nah. Did you see movie “The Omen”. According to that anti-Christ will one day become the POTUS to destroy the world.

  41. The comments in the Airport Giveaway under the Packham story are just scathing. I think Malcolm might really be out of a job very soon. Here is a beauty:

    Ian
    1 hour ago

    One has to wonder how a charity with a staff of 6 could spend $38m over 10 years on admin costs?
    The board of this charity needs to front a Senate inquiry now, supeona the lot if necessary, and get to the bottom of this.
    This is going to really hurt the PM, it could even be terminal. One can only hope.

  42. Great opening lines by Paddy Manning:

    One positive legacy of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership may be to dispel, once and for all, the notion that a successful businessperson makes a better politician. From nobbling the government-owned National Broadband Network to casually handing out half a billion dollars to a private foundation in the #reefgate scandal, Turnbull has taken a dim view of the role and capabilities of the public service, preferring to back his own judgement, which has often proved spectacularly wrong. Coalition hostility to Canberra is nothing new, but it contrasts sharply with Labor’s careful bridge-building.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/09/2018/1533792986/business-v-politics

  44. Some of you might recall that I was involved in a $1.5m federal grant for the development of a
    viable process and its proof by the restoration of native grassy ground cover to 400 hectares of degraded land.
    This was won by a complex competitive bidding process, was set up with a comprehensive agreement document, had a raft of agreed measurable outcomes and milestones and required regular reporting of these as well as audited accounts.
    A far cry, it would appear, from the GBRF instance.

  46. Paddy Manning has become required reading. And congratulations to him for pointing out that Michael West broke this story. Thank God for Michael. He was too good for the SMH, so they booted him.

  47. BK @ #2494 Friday, August 10th, 2018 – 9:54 am

    Some of you might recall that I was involved in a $1.5m federal grant for the development of a
    viable process and its proof by the restoration of native grassy ground cover to 400 hectares of degraded land.
    This was won by a complex competitive bidding process, was set up with a comprehensive agreement document, had a raft of agreed measurable outcomes and milestones and required regular reporting of these as well as audited accounts.
    A far cry, it would appear, from the GBRF instance.

    Congratulations! However, next time just add the names of a few Goldman Sachs alumni to your initial proposal.

    You would receive 100 times the money for 1/100th of the effort!

  48. “Could Murdoch be the side kick of anti-Christ “

    Or maybe he’s John the Anti-baptist, who prepares the way for he who is to come. Mind you, it didn’t end well for the other John…

  50. BK,

    Some of you might recall that I was involved in a $1.5m federal grant for the development of a
    viable process and its proof by the restoration of native grassy ground cover to 400 hectares of degraded land…

    I receive funding for my work from the ARC and ARENA. I prepare, for my part of a broader project, 10-20 pages of reports each 6 months, detailed financials, have obligations on knowledge sharing activities and academic publications, and make a yearly presentation to our funders’ project liaisons.

    That’s for less that $1M over three years support 2.5 people with my orgainisation chipping in about $300k in kind.

    This GBRF business stinks.

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