BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA

An overdue review of the BludgerTrack situation, as a new poll from YouGov Galaxy supports its finding that the Labor swing in Western Australia is back to sub-stratospheric levels.

The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.

There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.

We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.

Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.

Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.

At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.

Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.

Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,976 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor; YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. guytaur @ #143 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 10:54 am

    P1

    I see the mistake you are making. Eduction despite all the myth making is not for creating employment. Yes its great for that. However education is a goal in its own right. For example informed educated voters make good choices in democratic elections.

    Sorry, I’m completely lost here. Which comment of mine are you referring to?

  2. AnnastaciaPalaszczuk
    ‏Verified account @AnnastaciaMP
    26s26 seconds ago

    Cabinet gets latest update from BOM. 57% of the state currently drought declared. #qldpol @BOM_Qld

  3. P1

    Your post at 10:52. It was all about how the employer would view the grades. The assumption implied is that education is to be set up for employers

  4. “You are being played”

    I regard the NEG as worthless because it does nothing, in fact it is worse than worthless because the Federal Government is attempting to lock it in for 12 years. There’s nothing for anyone concerned about climate change to agree with. VIC, Qld and the ACT should tell Malcolm and Josh where they can stick it. So should the other states, of course, but they’ll go along with whatever the Coalition climate deniers can be persuaded to accept.


  5. guytaur says:
    ..
    For example informed educated voters make good choices in democratic elections.

    It serves a far higher purpose for engineering, science etc. Transfer of knowledge.
    Some find it easy to learn, some find it hard. You should not get an unsatisfactory if you learnt the material to the required standard with ease and had other things take your interest at the same time.

  6. I see most of my North Melbourne games in the flesh – but it is always nice to watch a replay if we win. Agree that there are now plenty of other options than Foxtel, especially since I have a Telstra mobile phone.

    And I can always go the the Royal Oak in Nicholson St North Fitzroy!

  7. lizzie: “Attorney-General Christian Porter has ordered another review of the AAT, citing issues of “public trust”. It’s the latest in a crusade to shift powers from the tribunal to Home Affairs.

    Home Affairs is becoming a slime monster that will eventually absorb us all.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/08/04/home-affairs-bid-avoid-visa-reviews/15333048006666

    Well, I’m no great fan of the behemoth that is Home Affairs. However, the AAT decision to which this article refers was a rather interesting one, to say the least. The AAT member specifically found that the appellant’s history of 39 criminal convictions – including 5 years in the clink for giving ice to a 15 year old girl and then commencing a sexual relationship with her – did not preclude “a finding of current good character” and that such a past history “may not even materially inform an assessment of a person’s current character and fitness.”

    As far as I can see, it’s a decision that is open to the tribunal to make on the basis of the wording of the legislation – depending on how you wish to interpret the word “current” – but, as I said, it was certainly an interesting decision.

  8. LOL

    Steve Dalby
    ‏ @Steve_Dalby
    3m3 minutes ago

    Crewman: “Captain, there’s a #reefgate dead ahead!”
    .@TurnbullMalcolm : “Steady as she sinks, number one”
    @GBRFoundation @KKeneally #auspol

  9. guytaur @ #153 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 11:03 am

    P1

    Your post at 10:52. It was all about how the employer would view the grades. The assumption implied is that education is to be set up for employers

    Did you understand why I chose engineering as my example? I could have chosen medicine or computer science or teaching or any of the other multitude of university degrees primarily intended to give you a reliable professional qualification.

    So the question remains – would prefer to employ a recently graduated engineer that got a “satisfactory” 50%, or one that got an “unsatisfactory” 90%?

  10. Doc Evatt
    ‏ @DocEvatt
    12h12 hours ago

    The man who oversaw Aboriginal boys being subjected to unconscionably cruel torture in youth detention centres discussing white nationalism with a renown Hitler fancier. How the fuck did we get here?

  11. zoomster:

    Our primary school reports have separate “level of engagement” and demonstrated learning ratings for each subject area, which I find to be quite a good system.

  12. Player One:

    I am pretty sure the context for zoomster’s comment was primary/secondary schooling where “learning to learn” is a large part of the desired outcome, rather than your tertiary education examples where demonstrated mastery of a defined subject area is.

  13. That doesn’t make sense. An engineer that struggles to get over 50% gets a “satisfactory” while a genius who only gets 90% gets an “unsatisfactory”?

    50% of the assessment is not 50% of the curriculum.

    In the units I teach, if you don’t know almost all of the the first third of the material covered in the unit, then you aren’t going to get anywhere near 50% of the assessment. This point is lost on about 15% of the cohort each year.

  14. Merri

    You can watch replays of all games too. Sometimes you have to wait a day but can see the extended highlights straight away.

  15. Zoidlord @ #161 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 11:11 am

    Doc Evatt
    ‏ @DocEvatt
    12h12 hours ago

    The man who oversaw Aboriginal boys being subjected to unconscionably cruel torture in youth detention centres discussing white nationalism with a renown Hitler fancier. How the fuck did we get here?

    Weak politicians who fail to stand up to and call out anti-immigrant sentiment for the thinly-veiled racism that it is. And then who gradually, as their position weakens, openly stoke that sentiment and attempt to court the preferences from parties even more openly racist than themselves.

    It comes down to a political-survial-at-all-costs mentatality coupled with a complete lack of standards and ethics. And then the media hop on board because controversy = clicks/viewers = $$$.

  16. caf @ #165 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 11:14 am

    Player One:

    I am pretty sure the context for zoomster’s comment was primary/secondary schooling where “learning to learn” is a large part of the desired outcome, rather than your tertiary education examples where demonstrated mastery of a defined subject area is.

    Perhaps, but I would disagree with it in that context as well. Kindergarten … maybe.

  17. P1

    Indeed. And others regard it as worthwhile for exactly the same reason 🙁

    Especially Josh. Heard him on RN a couple of months ago explain it. From what he said companies have do SFA and then way in the future do heaps in the last few (3 ? ) years, he used the word ‘hockey stick”. Sure did sound like do nothing .

  18. P1

    There you go again. All about the employer. Nothing about the self employed person who does it to do their own business. They only have to qualify and do the job to a time contract if they accept a certain time.

    They may not accept such a time. There is a limit to how much people can demand in reducing time in contracts. Japan is running into this problem with its workforce in constructing the Olympic Stadiums for the Tokyo Olympics.

    Mainly due to the heroic work of old workers. If you are qualified you can do the job. Some of the demands of employers are unreasonable. Those demands need to change not the grading system of education systems.

  19. Blair Cottrell @blaircottrell89
    13h13 hours ago
    Lol so Sky News caved already to Lefist abuse. I suppose my ideas are so irrefutable, that the only recourse is to silence me. How pathetic.

  20. LU not logged in @ #166 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 11:15 am

    That doesn’t make sense. An engineer that struggles to get over 50% gets a “satisfactory” while a genius who only gets 90% gets an “unsatisfactory”?

    50% of the assessment is not 50% of the curriculum.

    So? Let me put it to you this way – you have two applicants for an apprenticeship in your shoe factory. Neither one finished high school for various reasons, but you believe in giving such kids a chance anyway. One has a school report that says “satisfactory” year after year, the other says “unsatisfactory” every year for the same period.

    Which one would you be inclined to take on?

  21. lizzie @ #89 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 9:07 am

    Chuckle.

    Paul Syvret‏Verified account @PSyvret · 17h17 hours ago

    Writing a column. Can Twitter help me with identifying one policy area the Abbott/ governments have actually got right?

    Vaccination.

    Literally the only one I can think of.

    Zoidlord @ #161 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 10:41 am

    Doc Evatt
    ‏ @DocEvatt
    12h12 hours ago

    The man who oversaw Aboriginal boys being subjected to unconscionably cruel torture in youth detention centres discussing white nationalism with a renown Hitler fancier. How the fuck did we get here?

    Adam Giles is all in a class of his own when it comes to sheer arrogance, ruthlessness, and callousness. A very disturbing man.

  22. P1

    Again from the employers point of view. Again not realising that education is not about training a person for a job. Its training people to have the knowledge to do the job.

    Training the person for the job is the responsibility of the employer

  23. P1

    Yeah I don’t know either. Unless you think in neo liberal terms that education is there for the employer not for the person.

  24. P1,

    If they were my only two choices, I’d pull them both in for an interview and try to ascertain their aptitude for the job.

    You can only get so much information from a piece of paper.

    As an occasional contractor, I was told that the requirements of one particular client are that I am available, affable and able, in that order. It was not the job for me 😀

  25. zoidlord: “Unions seek to end religious bodies’ right to discriminate in hiring
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/06/unions-seek-to-end-religious-bodies-right-to-discriminate-in-hiring?CMP=soc_568

    I really don’t know what I think about this. Although I am basically an atheist, I have always been a firm believer in the separation of church and state.

    This type of campaign seems to me to be fairly large step down a pathway that might eventually end with governments making laws preventing religious organisations from preaching/teaching against homosexuality, and a range of other things.

  26. The libs had better hope that the Reachtel national polling doesn’t have their Longman disease, where they had the Libs winning 51 – 49 with a week to go.
    As I mentioned, it’s also interested that the Libs are getting 45% of the undecided – twice as many as Labor. Shows their vote is soft???

  27. Another one getting out of the cesspit……………….

    @helen_dalley
    Follow Follow @helen_dalley
    More
    Personal/professional news: after 11 triffic years at @SkyNewsAust &@SkyBusiness I have resigned, want 2 explore new projects/challenges

  28. This Cottrell slimeball is precisely why you kick grubs like Hadley when they’re down. You only get to Cottrell on mainstream tv after you’ve let filth like Hadley et al debase standards to the point that shit not so far from where Cottrell is has been normalised.

  29. The Labor Premiers are way too smart for that sort of negotiating bullshit.

    The Labor Premier in Victoria in particular is far too concerned about losing seats in inner Melbourne to be interested in the slightest in being fucked over by a pair of clowns like the Hungarian National and Trumble.

  30. Full Victorian state level ReachTEL poll

    https://www.greenpeace.org.au/research/poll-victorians-want-renewables/

    https://www.greenpeace.org.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Greenpeace-31July18-Victoria.pdf

    Its respondant allocated prefs, but I still find a TPP 57-43 to Labor hard to believe. Rogue poll? It’s commissioned by Greenpeace, so as with any lobby group’s poll take with a grain of salt, but issue questions were asked after the voting questions, so they shouldn’t bias the vote results. I would want to see another poll that shows teh ALP comfortably in front to believe there is a shift. The last couple of polls from ReachTEL and Galaxy in Victoria were 51-49 to Labor.

  31. I wish people would stop referring to Cottrell as a far-right activist or similar.
    He is a neo-Nazi pure and simple, and should be called as such.

  32. adrian

    If they do that what do they call Bolt? Dean or the Outsiders team?

    Where is the difference? Then what do they call Dutton who Cottrell has praised?

  33. A couple of posts above reminded me that same sex marriage has been legal in Australia for about 7 months. The sky hasn’t fallen in, the Churches are still doing their thing, traditional (heterosexual) families are getting on with their lives, there has been no agitation for polygamy (or polyandry) and there haven’t been mass conversions (or any conversions) to gayety. No cake makers have suffered. Meanwhile, same sex couples have been getting married if they want to or not if they don’t.

    The whole issue is now no longer on the agenda, we seem to have moved on.

    But for a weak Prime Minister, all this could have been sorted in 2015.

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