The diversion of Super Saturday meant I fell out of my habit of running weekly posts on the latest BludgerTrack numbers, although I have been updating them as new polls have come through. As no national polls appear likely this week, now is a good time to resume.
There have been three national polls since the last BludgerTrack post, each of which has registered some sort of improvement for the Coalition: the Ipsos poll three weeks ago had Labor’s two-party lead closing from 53-47 to 51-49, and its respondent-allocated preferences result was 50-50 (as it was in the Ipsos poll from early April); and, more modestly, last week’s Newspoll and Essential Research results both had Coalition up a point on the primary vote and Labor steady.
We also had yesterday a Western Australia only poll from YouGov Galaxy, which gratifyingly supported what BludgerTrack was saying already. On voting intention, it had the Coalition on 42%, down from 48.7% at the 2016 election; Labor on 36%, up 3.5%; the Greens on 10%, down 2.1%; and One Nation on 5%. The published two-party result is 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, which is presumably based on previous election flows, and compares with 54.7-45.3 in 2016.
Other findings of the poll: Malcolm Turnbull led Bill Shorten 47-32 as preferred prime minister; they were tied at 40% on who was most trusted to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share” (which might be thought presumptuous wording, though few in WA would be likely to think so); and 36% supported and 50% opposed company tax cuts, in response to a question that specified beneficiaries would include “those with a turnover above $50 million a year”. The poll was conducted on Thursday and Friday for the Sunday Times from a sample of 831.
Together with the existing BludgerTrack reading, this poll tends to confirm that much of the air has gone out of the boom Labor was experiencing in WA polling through much of last year and this year. The BludgerTrack probability projections now have Labor likely to pick up Hasluck, but Swan and Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce are now rated as 50-50 propositions.
At the national level, recent polls have produced a movement back to the Coalition on two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down to 51.1-48.9, its lowest level since late 2016. However, this has not availed them much on the seat projection, which actually credits Labor with a bigger majority than it achieved in 2007, when its two-party vote was 1.6% higher.
Partly this reflects continuing weakness in the Coalition’s ratings in all-important Queensland, consistent with the Longman by-election result. Labor has also made a gain in BludgerTrack against the national trend in Victoria, netting them two projected seats, which is balanced only by a one seat loss from a slightly larger movement against them in New South Wales. BludgerTrack is now registering a small swing in the Coalition’s favour in New South Wales, but thanks to adjustments for sophomore surge effects in all seats the Coalition could conceivably gain from Labor, it’s not availing them on the seat projection.
Ipsos and Newspoll both provided new results for leadership ratings, which have made a small further contribution to the existing improving trend for Malcolm Turnbull, both on net approval and preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.
Fess
I still envisage Trump being hauled away to a mental facility as this Imbroglio hits peak Cray cray
From the car radio this morning:
ABC 7:45 news – Frydenberg demanding the Labor states agree to his NEG, followed by a Grattan Institute person saying likewise.
2CC (Canberra redneck radio) after 8:00 news – Malcolm Farr referring to ReachTel poll quoting 60% believe fossil fuel lobby has too much influence on energy policy.
It seems the people of Australia are on a different wavelength to the federal government.
Vic:
At the end of the day Team Trump knew they would be meeting with representatives of the Russian govt. They knew they were being offered Russian state intelligence. They intended to use Russian intelligence offered by Russian agents against an American opponent, and they did not alert authorities.
It’s as simple as that really. Trump Jnr and Kushner are toast.
Confessions says: Monday, August 6, 2018 at 9:49 am
Vic:
At the end of the day Team Trump knew they would be meeting with representatives of the Russian govt. They knew they were being offered Russian state intelligence. They intended to use Russian intelligence offered by Russian agents against an American opponent, and they did not alert authorities.
It’s as simple as that really. Trump Jnr and Kushner are toast.
************************************************
And from Cohen – possibly Gates and Manafort – Trump himself was told all that had happened
– even Bannon said Jr and Kushner would have taken the Russians to meet Trump himself
Trump Tower meeting with Russians ‘treasonous’, Bannon says in explosive book “The three senior guys in the campaign thought it was a good idea to meet with a foreign government inside Trump Tower in the conference room on the 25th floor – with no lawyers. They didn’t have any lawyers.
“Even if you thought that this was not treasonous, or unpatriotic, or bad shit, and I happen to think it’s all of that, you should have called the FBI immediately.”
Bannon also speculated that Trump Jr had involved his father in the meeting. “The chance that Don Jr did not walk these jumos up to his father’s office on the twenty-sixth floor is zero.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/03/donald-trump-russia-steve-bannon-michael-wolff
…. it is ‘rumoured’ in Intelligence circles that its all on tape anyways from SIGINT sources …..
lizzie
In totally non surprising news the Australian is all aboard the Truffles spin train. Top of the page headline.
“EXCLUSIVE
Labor split risks killing energy deal”
Finally:
Herald Sun
Verified account @theheraldsun
1m1 minute ago
These new poll results don’t bode well for Malcolm Turnbull.
Poroti – but the good thing about the story in the Airport Giveaway is that it says it is almost certain that Queensland and Victoria will tell Malcolm to take a hike on the NEG
Team Trump have gone from No collusion! to Maybe collusion! to Okay some collusion, but it wasn’t illegal!
As you said it’s all starting to come together now.
Just rang Foxtel to cancel our subscription over the Blair Cottrell interview – it is hard, as North Melbourne are hardly ever on free to air TV. But my grandfather volunteered to join the Australian Army in WW2 to fight the Nazis, and we are not going to support a pay TV network that promotes the views of fascists.
I had a hard time explaining Nazis and fascists to the helpful staff at the call centre – neither of the two people I spoke to had ever heard of them.
It is shameful that Malcolm and his narrow-thinking government didn’t even have the imagination and generosity to embrace the Uluru Statement.
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/05/the-world-is-being-undone-before-us-if-we-do-not-reimagine-australia-we-will-be-undone-too?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
(re my post at 9:48)
Another thing Farr mentioned is that Frydenberg is telling the states to sign up to the NEG before it goes to the L/NP party room where it may be changed to appease Abbott et al.
This is a valid point. The L/NP is torn apart internally by dissent over the L/NP and it has the nerve to demand that the states agree to something that it cannot agree on within itself.
The full Herald Sun link on the ReachTEL poll is here. The link URL on the last page was too short. Its got nothing to do with yesterdays Galaxy poll on WA. Its a Greenpeace commissioned poll. Paywalled, you’ll have to try & get round it yourselves.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/new-poll-puts-turnbull-government-well-behind-labor-in-victoria/news-story/9c0532eb8453d12509b51f4996f7be48
Its the same poll as this Guardian one, but they didn’t put up the TPP etcm just the issue questions.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/06/most-australians-want-more-renewables-to-help-lower-power-prices-poll
‘Looking at latest polls it’s dire for coalition at next election.. with the changes of electoral boundaries they have already lost 3 seats.. Looks like 7 seats gone in Qld.. 2 in WA.. 3 in Victoria.. Not sure about rest probably another 8.. Turnbull is gone #auspol #libsfail’
zoomster:
Even if they did, our educational system is based around 50% being a pass.
Until seeing this sentence today, I’d never really thought about why 50% should be considered a passing grade – it’s always just been one of those things that everyone has seemed to accept as natural. But when you actually stop to reflect on it, it is clearly fairly arbitrary – what do we suppose is the claimed basis here? That a passing student, when asked a random question from the syllabus, is more likely to get it right than to get it wrong?
This seems to be an exceptionally unambitious goal for an education system.
Regarding the Greenpeace commissioned ReachTEL in Vic, it sounds as though the questions about support for renewable energy have primed people to think favourably of the Greens and Labor.
Is it this sort of thing that makes commissioned polls less reliable ?
Does it also suggest that a strong “ground campaign “ by parties can change the outcome in close seat contests?
Ed Husic suggested on the night of the by elections that Labor was in a losing position in Longmore when the by elections were called, but turned that around during the campaign.
Merri Creak
Good move. I am going to call Foxtel as well. Although other half would probably want me to wait until footy season is over!
I suppose you might consider NEG a compromise of sorts. Labor, the Greens and the science says we need to take effective action to phase out of coal into renewable energy. The Far Right faction of the Coalition, plus the mining, fossil fuel and industry interests that back them are insisting that we mine more coal, build new coal-fired power stations, withdraw from or ignore our Paris commitments and escalate the War on Renewables.
Turnbull and Frydenberg, via the NEG, want to compromise by doing nothing.
Citizen. Exactly. The States might agree to a rubbish NEG and Josh will then say. “Ah, I’m sorry, I can’t get that through the party room, but I can offer you this slightly worse option.” The Labor Premiers are way too smart for that sort of negotiating bullshit.
Fess
I had thought that indictments for Don Jnr and Kushner were going to happen before the Manafort trial. Perhaps will occur after this trial wraps up.
Or for dramatic effect, will happen during!
Lol! I’ve covered all bases now.
Reflecting on Vic state govt
They deserve another term.
The infrastructure projects including the new rail as well as getting rid of level crossings has been fantastic.
Turnbull and Frydenberg, via the NEG, want to compromise by doing nothing.
Well put!
Craig Emerson
@DrCraigEmerson
Merri Creek
Do you know that with Telstra you can watch all AFL games on a mobile device such as a tablet or IPad? If you are not with Telstra you can subscribe to AFL directly.
I gave up my Foxtel subscription years ago and haven’t missed it at all.
Merri Creak:
You might be able to stream the North Melbourne games with an AFL Live Pass? (It’s even free if you’re a Telstra mobile subscriber).
The future of sports broadcasting is directly subscribing to the sports own streaming channels.
There can’t be many decent commentators left at Sky with PvO, KK and now Emmerson leaving.
Steve777 @ #116 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 10:16 am
This kind of argument is akin to saying the ABC must be unbiased because they get as many complaints from the right as from the left.
You are being played 🙁
phoenixRED @ #104 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 9:56 am
Although true, has to be balanced against the fact that Bannon is a walking piece of excrement. Nobody should take his word on anything. He just says nonsense to be popular, kind of like a mini version of what Trump does.
Home Affairs is becoming a slime monster that will eventually absorb us all.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/08/04/home-affairs-bid-avoid-visa-reviews/15333048006666
Actually, T an F want to do less than nothing. They want to freeze the renewable’s target for another ten years.
Why don’t you just watch the footy on AFL TV?
I never had a Foxtel subscription. Rupert Murdoch gets none of my money and zero opportunities to influence me.
caf
I used to find it frightening that the Med students I knew got through on 50%!
Diogenes @ #63 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 7:02 am
The position of the WA police has long been that players on an AFL ground consent to being assaulted, regardless of how egregious the assault is or how unrelated to the play it is.
lizzie @ #36 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 7:33 am
If the Brexit goes ahead with no deal, it will be worth watching the outcome very closely. It will be a foretaste of what may happen worldwide once global warming begins to disrupt food production, economies collapse due to ongoing and unprecedented natural disasters, and mass movement of large populations becomes commonplace.
We can probably learn a lot about what not to do by following what Britain does as a result of a “no deal” Brexit 🙁
…and, for the record, I prefer the Satisfactory/Non Satisfactory Read The F**ing Comment method of reporting on students – if you have someone who is capable but slack, they don’t get an S until they’re working at the best of their ability; if you have someone who is academically weak but does their very best always, they get an S — and the difference is explained by Reading The F***ing Comment.
Good Morning
Good on those of you joining us in boycotting Sky News.
I note there is a campaign going after the advertisers. Sleeping Giants just may get some traction here despite what Barry said on Media Watch.
In the meantime if we had another government that was not extreme there would be questions raised in parliament about the licence of Sky given its promotion of racism.
Grimace – a weird rationale. The police are basically saying that you can’t play football unless you agree to be assaulted. Great. Should it be: you can’t play football unless you agree NOT to assault people.
You jumped without reading it all me thinks.
Full ReachTEL national poll here. Its commissioned by Greenpeace, so take with a grain of salt, however the issue questions were asked after the voting questions, so they didn’t bias the TPP etc.
https://www.greenpeace.org.au/research/polling-australians-want-renewable-energy/
https://www.greenpeace.org.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Greenpeace-31July18-National.pdf
I’m told the Victorian state results were given to the Herald Sun to ru this morning, but will go up on Greenpeace’s site later today.
zoomster @ #135 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 10:46 am
That doesn’t make sense. An engineer that struggles to get over 50% gets a “satisfactory” while a genius who only gets 90% gets an “unsatisfactory”?
Which one would you want to employ in your nuclear power station? What employer is going to be able to “Read the F**king Comments” on a job application?
That’s not hard to understand really. Electrical power coming from limitless sources such as solar or wind would appear to most people to be free power. The logic is not totally correct of course, given the costs involved in harnessing and distributing the power but it is a perception that a clever leader like Shorten can exploit to the full.
So I don’t think the Liberals will have much success in convincing people that digging up coal and burning it is cheaper than just using the sun’s rays and the power of the wind – quite aside from the more important issue of climate change which the use of coal is causing.
P1
I see the mistake you are making. Eduction despite all the myth making is not for creating employment. Yes its great for that. However education is a goal in its own right. For example informed educated voters make good choices in democratic elections.
guytaur – that Greg Byrne related tweet is a mistake (one orginally started by the Australian’s media news twitter account, they screwed up), he has NOT resigned.
Leroy
Thanks.
antonbruckner11 @ #137 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 8:48 am
I can’t find the story online. When I was working in Dampier (near Karratha) a few years ago there was a WAFL game played there where a player game off the bench, ran up behind an unsuspecting opposition player who was 100 metres from the ball and king hit him from behind, leaving him unconscious.
There was an outcry at the time and the response of the police was that the opposition player consented to the assault.
Leroy, thanks.
Fascinating that the 5.7 per cent undecided voters broke 45 percent for LNP and 23 per cent for labor (and that bulked up the LNP 48 % vote).
Does that suggest that the LNP vote is a lot softer than Labor’s? There are a lot of voters out there operating on inertia who labor might pick up during an election?
Simon² Katich® @ #138 Monday, August 6th, 2018 – 10:48 am
No, I don’t think so. My point is that if the NEG can be portrayed as a reasonable compromise (which it often is) it can only be because its backers have managed to drag the Overton Window so far to the right. This is partly why they take such ridiculously extreme views – i.e. they are playing you (us).
A reminder. In NSW we changed “King Hit” to Coward Punch to highlight the reality. The person under attack has no choice at all to respond.
Its a Coward who goes for the punch that has killed several people