The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.
The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/01/no-environment-officials-at-turnbull-meeting-about-443m-reef-grant-to-tiny-charity
Looks like PM is not answering questions over it and throwing it over to frydbrain.
Interestingly enough had Newspoll applied last election prefs to their last Longman poll (ALP 40%, LNP 36%, PHON 14% and Greens 5%) they would have come up with a headline figure of 53.5/46.5 to the ALP.
They’d be looking like a right bunch o’smarties right about now.
(but Braddon would have come out 50/50)
I think the IPA in question was the Institute of Public Accountants, not the Institute of Public Affairs. The former being a professional membership body. I believe their zero per cent tax rate proposal, is for small businesses for a limited period of time (i.e. for the first year of operation).
Based on the Essential poll we could extrapolate for the L-NP (L-NP 41+0.6 of ON = 3.5+0.2Green =2 +0.4Others =2 ) Total 2PP = 48.5. I just don’t see much wrong with the 2PP result based on the primary numbers.
It would mean that Labor would no longer face any opposition to changing the rules on dividend imputation.
You underestimate the ability of reactionaries to react against anything Labor proposed.
John Hewson demonstrates why he lost the 1996 election.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/he-won-t-admit-it-but-turnbull-knows-shorten-has-his-number-20180801-p4zuti.html
The first mistake he makes is to put the idea out that Shorten is the only political leader who tells lies.
The second mistake is to advise Turnbull to counter Shorten’s lies by telling the truth himself.
As they say in Missouri: “Now THERE’S yer problem!”
Don’t like Hewson advising Turnbull/Abbott …
I thought Hewson was a little more honest than that. Silly me.
meher baba @ #247 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 3:55 pm
Meher
Sue Robinson who was once friend of mine, is a lovely lady but to call her far left as you suggest is quite, quite wrong. She was pretty moderate left by ACT standards – ie in a Left faction that included some out and out trots, everyone who would now be a green, people like me, John Quiggin as well as the usual union left, Sue would have been slap bang in the middle or a tiny bit to the right of the left if you get my drift.
Also that election was hardly a fair test of policy given that it followed the “whiteboard” affair and the fact that the Keating government was on the nose.
David,
On the published primaries there are no issues with the Essential 2pp. I believe they continue to use Last Election prefs.
The discussion is about those not using Last Election prefs. There are arguments for and against. But I’m far from convinced that there is enough good supporting evidence to abandon Last Election prefs as the default for calculating 2PP.
Ratsack I don’t disagree. ON preferences, particularly in QLD could end up anywhere. However I doubt you are likely to see Labor with a 2PP of 53 or 54 based on the Essential primaries. You may get to 53 on the Newspoll primaries but even that would be a test.
Usually have some respect for Hewson, but he has lost the plot with that article.
Ha Hewson. Every suggestion you make would destroy the Libs. Campaign finance reform, Integrity Commission, Truth in Political Advertising?
You do know you’re talking about the Liberal Party of Australia here don’t you Dr John?
Poor little John “Labor Calls It The Wealth Tax” Hewson bleating about politicians being loose with the truth. Self-awareness is obviously not his long suit.
It’s almost like Hewson WANTS to destroy Trumble and the Libs.
“John Hewson demonstrates why he lost the 1996 election”
1996? Beaten by Johnny, was he?
In retrospect, it might have been better if Hewson had beaten Keating in 1993, then we’d have been spared Howard.
I reckon that a national 2PP of 51.5-48.5 to Labor is where we are at right now. However, the zero to small swings to Government states (NSW, Victoria, SA, Tassie) are not likely to help them very much. Maybe a seat or two will, in exceptional circumstances go their way (ie. Lindsay, Lingari and/or Braddon).
The problem is, that even after the State Labor honeymoon is over in WA Labor will likely pick up another 3 seats out west.
While I call bullshit on Labor picking up 7-9 Queensland seats, the facts are when One Nation is rampant the LNP does disasterously. For every 10 primary votes they lose, they only get back 6 votes on preferences. So, Labor is likely to pick up at least 3 seats in Queensland. Possibly more.
I have not given up hope of Labor picking up 3 out of the following 5 seats in NSW – Gilmour, Robertson, Banks, Page and Reid, In fact, I reckon that our campaign army makes that a near certainty.
Even if Victoria doesn’t swing to Labor, the combined effect of the redistribution’s in Victoria, ACT and SA means that Labor has already picked up a virtual 3 seat gain and I expect at the very least for that to hold in the election.
So, on a National 51.5 to 48.5 2PP split in favour of Labor, given those regional variances above, I’d expect Labor to end up with between 78 to 81 seats in the next parliament. If the 2PP blows out past 52% its landslide time baby!
However I doubt you are likely to see Labor with a 2PP of 53 or 54 based on the Essential primaries. You may get to 53 on the Newspoll primaries but even that would be a test.
No idea what you’re trying to say here.
The simple maths of it is that using the primaries Newspoll published in their final Longman seat poll and applying the National Last Election prefs to that would have resulted in 53.5/46.5. I’m not asserting that you should necessarily do that in a seat poll (but single seat polls are so shit usually it mightn’t be the worst idea) and I noted that doing the same in Braddon would have got them further from the final result than their published 2CP.
So my simple point again is that not using Last Election prefs for determining 2PP doesn’t have much or any evidence out of Saturday to support it.
Davidwh @ #258 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 4:14 pm
David
I think you may well be very wrong on this. Before last Saturday I probably would have nodded in agreement with you but the results last Saturday suggest something else is going on.
Yes it was a by-election and they go against the government but the ALP TPPs were astronomical in Burpengary, Caboolture, Morayfield, Kallangur – ie above 60%. This indicates a very deep hostility to the LNP is the solid working class areas.
DTT: “Sue Robinson who was once friend of mine, is a lovely lady but to call her far left as you suggest is quite, quite wrong.”
Sue was a friend of a friend of mine, and I recall a media blitz against her as being far left. And I recall that some past positions she had taken on some issues – possibly similar to Falzon’s – were brought up by the media as evidence of her radical views.
It’s important to remember that it’s likely that, for the average PB poster, policy positions such as being opposed to the detention of asylum seekers or Israel’s actions in Palestine don’t appear to be particularly radical. But that’s not necessarily the case with the broader community, especially if egged on by elements of the media.
I agree that the whiteboard affair was a factor, as was general dissatisfaction with the Labor Government: which, having won a fifth term that arguably wasn’t warranted, had gone into a state of policy catatonia by that time.
But it was a massive anti-Labor swing for an electorate such as Canberra. ACT electors are reflexively pro-Labor at the Federal level, but those who live in the more affluent southern part of the city are at best only moderate lefties. (The north includes what passes for the “inner city” of Canberra plus some relatively “working class” districts in Belconnen, and is therefore a bit more inclined towards radicalism.) I would consider a candidate like Falzon could potentially press some of the same buttons for the south Canberra voters as were pressed in 1995.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #264 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 4:22 pm
Until Saturday I was pessimistic about Qld seats but now I think that Petrie, Flynn, Forde, even Bonner and Dickson are very good prospects. Then there is NQ which is anyone’s guess.
When is a foundation a shelf company. Read this and find out:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/01/no-environment-officials-at-turnbull-meeting-about-443m-reef-grant-to-tiny-charity
meher baba @ #270 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 4:27 pm
Meher
Canberra went Liberal in the 1975 and 1977 elections. It is a bit of a swing seat. Also the very, very powerful role of the local Catholic Parish in the seat makes it very hard for a lefty. It is NSW RW central and they have their hooks well in. I would be prepared to bet that many on the ALP in Canberra actively worked against Sue or at least ran dead. I know then well.
Thanks for the many valid comments here this week about Emma Husar’s situation. I resided, worked and suffered the futility of campaigning in Lindsay throughout the decade-long reign (actually 5 election victories due to a disqualification by-election in 1996) of the Howard Battlers’ Goddess Jackie Kelly. There’s zero doubt in my mind that a return of the former incumbent Fiona Scott (whose “bit of sex appeal” was spotlighted by LOTO Tony Abbott in 2013) or a reasonable facsimile would put Lindsay in the bag for the Liberals.
Murdochian wizards of the dark arts already have enough on Husar to wipe out the 2PP margin of 2,000, so Murdoch will quickly shine his slimelight on another Labor marginal. If Labor Party leaders decide to stick with Husar for what I assume will be good and noble reasons, then they’re likely to be as resolutely confident as I am that Labor is going to sweep into government with a dozen seat majority, at least. Que sera sera, eh?
Sohar: “In retrospect, it might have been better if Hewson had beaten Keating in 1993, then we’d have been spared Howard.”
I used to think the same, but I’ve subsequently had the opportunity to meet Hewson in person and I was rather underwhelmed.
In retrospect, despite the rather distasteful ways he attempted to manipulate the electorate (albeit quite often with success), I would judge Howard to have been a reasonably effective prime minister. IMO, Hewson wouldn’t have been.
I think the sad part of the political history of the early 1990s was that, having upset the apple cart to get his hands on the keys to the Lodge, and then having made a sterling effort to win the 1993 election, Keating more or less completely dropped the ball and allowed Howard to run away with the prize at a time when the economy was generally performing well. In late 1991, it looked as if replacing Hawke with Keating was going to be an act of renewal. But it didn’t really turn out to be. I suspect some of what went wrong arose from difficulties in Keating’s personal life.
But IMO the Hawke-Keating era was a period in which this country has been governed far better than it has ever been before or since. With the benefit of hindsight, it would have been far better for Hawke to remain in place. I think he might well have been able to hold office until the end of the 1990s, by which time a suitable successor would have been groomed and a smooth transition achieved (albeit that I reckon Hawke would always have been pretty reluctant to let go).
Meher
Which region is Falzon running in? I agree that out in the burbs of the south he would not be a perfect match.
Mind you if the central office forces a “moderate” MP on a left wing party membership, Labor will need to be careful they do not lose the seat to the Greens. One extreme Right Wing member, and two centrists will NOT make for happy little vegemites. Not if the ALP is anything like the one I knew.
Peeps,
a few days ago someone posted a link to a graph/matrix on Australian newspapers bias.
But I cant find it. Can anyone help?
“The Great Barrier Reef Foundation is a highly respected philanthropic organisation with a strong fundraising track record and history of successful partnerships with a range of sectors and has strong governance and accountability mechanisms.”
Which has done feck all but stand by and watch the GBR die, since it was established in 1999, apparently. However, I’m sure it has fundraised at some very chi chi restaurants in Brisbane during that time.
Newspoll really has taken itself out of the running as a credible pollster with its ON pref boondoggle based on Qld voting and not telling anyone. What else are they doing? The only other consistent pollster is Essential. Maybe right, maybe wrong. Can’t think of a time when the poll bludger tracker has been more tenuous (which is definitely not William’s fault, of course). And add to that to constant shifts in demographics, telephone usage, etc etc which pollsters have to keep track of.
DTT:
“Canberra went Liberal in the 1975 and 1977 elections. It is a bit of a swing seat.”
Those elections were huge landslides for the Libs. And John Haslem had a profile in the community that has been rarely paralleled by any of their other Federal candidates (other than perhaps Senator Margaret Reid, who was never required seriously to campaign). I think it would be difficult nowadays for the Libs to win any ACT federal seats except when something goes seriously wrong for Labor, such as the preselection of an unappealing candidate.
Even Brendan Smyth, who defeated Sue Robinson, only lasted until the 1996 election, when the seat swung back to Labor notwithstanding the fact that the party was thumped at the national level.
“I would be prepared to bet that many on the ALP in Canberra actively worked against Sue or at least ran dead. I know them well.”
I’ve heard people from the ACT ALP express this view quite strongly. Getting preselected for Labor Federally in the ACT is the political equivalent of winning Tattslotto: there’s always going to be a fair amount of envy around the place.
The below is an article by John Hewson in SMH.
The heading is very misleading because Hewson potrayed MT as transparent and Honest and Shorten as shady.
https://amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/he-won-t-admit-it-but-turnbull-knows-shorten-has-his-number-20180801-p4zuti.html?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fpolitics%2Ffederal%2Fhe-won-t-admit-it-but-turnbull-knows-shorten-has-his-number-20180801-p4zuti.html
DTT: “Which region is Falzon running in? I agree that out in the burbs of the south he would not be a perfect match.”
People who watch these things will correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the new division of Canberra basically covers the inner south and the inner north and parts of the Woden Valley. The inner south is probably the most right-leaning part of Canberra, while the inner north is something akin to the inner cities of Sydney, Melbourne and etc. One would expect a candidate such as Falzon to go ok in the north and less well in the inner south and Woden areas.
At least the seat doesn’t have the southern parts of Woden, and the Weston Creek and Tuggeranong areas, which have sizeable pockets of more affluent swinging voters, who I recall were the people who swung against Robinson in 1995.
But I’m not an expert on Canberra voting patterns: perhaps others have better insights.
Hewson WAS a politician. Is a politician no longer. He might be a liberal but he is also a very highly respected economist even if he slants in the direction of liberal policy-making. He will, however, call out shady economic policy even in the liberal party agenda. He is also VERY disappointed in the libs’ climate change policies.
meher baba @ #31 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 4:49 pm
Meher
I think I would trust the ALP sources. Not that I have been in touch with them for many years and was not in the ACT at the time. I KNOW them and a more Machiavellian mob o are not to be found.
I imagine the funds raised by the GBR Foundation were all conveniently tax deductible as well.
One law for them and another for Labor:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-02-04/cabinet-minister-bridget-mckenzie-failed-to-disclose-free-travel/9391140
Don’t these staffers have any training? Don’t answer that.
meher baba @ #33 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 4:56 pm
Yes it as I thought. That new seat is the Green seat in that it is the most left wing and in some senses the most affluent and educated. The inner rim Southern seats ARE the most conservative but in a Sydney North Shore sort of way – not suburban inspirational which characterized Wodon, Weston Creek and to a lesser extent Tugeranong.
One of many beaut comments attached to Frank Bruni’s piece in the New York Times.
The one word Mr. Bruni omits from this excellent piece — the one necessary word which ties it all together — is “gangster.” Trump, Manafort, Cohen — their business was servicing gangsters until they became indistinguishable from their clients. Trump, after his multiple bankruptcies cut him off from bank and pension-fund financing in the mid-1990s, went to work laundering money for Russian gangsters. Cohen’s business, before he was hired by Trump (and the reason he was hired by Trump) was laundering money for Russian gangsters through his taxi business. And Manafort — ahh, Manafort. His work was helping a Ukrainian mafia led by Victor Yanukovich take and maintain power in Ukraine. The Yanukovich regime was not “like” a mafia, not “close to mafia figures.” They were the mafia — a group of gangsters from eastern Ukraine who, once in power, simply emptied the treasury — stole with such energy and thoroughness that even Ukrainians, who are used to thieving politicians, were appalled. Appalled enough to rise up in 2014 and, through months of bloody street fighting, send Yanukovich fleeing to sanctuary with his sponsor, another gangster, Vladimir Putin. So here we are. The age of gangsters in power. In Washington. And in Moscow. Putting the gangster Manafort under the jailhouse won’t solve this problem, but it will provide a ray of justice — and hope.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/31/opinion/paul-manafort-trial-donald-trump.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinion&action=click&contentCollection=opinion®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront
Anton,
Yep, Newspoll just might have jumped the shark.
Classic case in point is Gallup in the USA. After having been worshipped for decades by America’s MSM like NewsPoll is here, Gallup went rogue for the 2012 Prez election in which Obama was re-elected by 51.1 to Romney’s 47.2.
Throughout the campaign Gallup’s figures were favourable to Romney with their final poll two days prior to the election showing Romney in the lead 50 to 49. The negative impact upon Gallup’s business model was sufficiently serious for them to eschew presidential election polling thereafter.
It’s worth mentioning that the seat of Canberra went Liberal in the byelection of 1995 following the retirement of Ros Kelly – a highly controversial minister in the Keating govt. Michaelia Cash was not the first minister guilty of misusing a whiteboard.
Dr John Cornwall, the feisty, reforming health minister of the Bannon Government, is dead in Sydney at 83.
Vale, the Charisma Kid.
I don’t think we should get too het up about Newspoll changing their pref model. I certainly don’t think they should have or that there is great evidence to support it. But it’s not like they’re turning Labor poll wins into LNP poll wins.
If things tighten even further then yes it will make a different at the margins, but you can never be as certain about polls reflecting reality as some (cough cough journalists) like to pretend. We shouldn’t fall into that trap either.
so tl: dr; Last Election prefs would be easier to justify, but it’s not the end of the world.
I still don’t quite “get” twitter though I can access it – but thanks @HillbillySkill – #reefgate is going along nicely after only a few hours! It is barely comprehensible that nearly half a billion dollars could be handed out like this – where are the newspaper headlines, when so many other government ‘scandals’ involve sums in the range of a few thousand dollars? I feel this has got a long way to run, and that Labor can hammer this mis-spending heavily in Queensland, where Great Barrier Reef tourism is still a major industry (but may not be in 50 years!)
tt – Cornwall sounds like an interesting character – I wasn’t aware that he was one of the first to work against cigarette advertising at a government level.
The Half billion dollar Great Barrier Reef Foundation has a website https://www.barrierreef.org .
It’s a very glossy online effort with lots of nice pictures. Beyond that, there are many words which essentially say very little.
The organisation seems to be a cover for avoiding tackling the causes of climate change and run-off pollution, and instead promoting some wacky schemes to make the reef look better for tourists.
Prof. Higgins says:
Wednesday, August 1, 2018 at 4:38 pm
….
Murdochian wizards of the dark arts already have enough on Husar to wipe out the 2PP margin of 2,000, so Murdoch will quickly shine his slimelight on another Labor marginal.
….
Current efforts look more like Murdock desperation than a successful campaign:
Mark ✊ @WorldOfMarkyD · 2h2 hours ago
Michaelia Cash spent $118,350 on her parliamentary entitlementsincluding $6,094 on COMCAR use in 5 months not a peep from our media
Emma Husar legitimately used just $2,000 .. yet NewsLtd stalks her home at night, and calls for her resignation
I don’t think the press will use “Albo made a speech” as an excuse for another News Ltd con on press integrity.
Emma Husar MP @emmahusarmp
2/2 The concert tickets were a birthday present from a friend. Confident I’ve always acted within the rules but have asked IPEA to double-check and review as I take the use of taxpayers’ money extremely seriously.
And it is all small fry compared to 1/2 billion dollars handed over to a shelf foundation. It’s pretty clear the result of the weekend is Murdock doubling down.
I am trying to square this statement…
… with the statement to the parliamentary committee yesterday by the CEO (or secretary, or whomever) that they did not plan to urge any Climate Change measures with the money they have been given.
Speaking of preferences, the respondent-allocated result from last week’s Ipsos was 50-50. I only just found that out.
Rocket Rocket,
Don’t thank me (@HilbillySkill on Twitter), thank Mike Hilliard for coming up with #Reefgate this morning. I just put it out there on Twitter. 🙂
Bushfire Bill @ #303 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 5:40 pm
My take: they want to genetically-engineer heat-resistant super-coral. That way the climate can get as warm as it wants and nobody has to worry about the reef anymore.