Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. lizzie @ #2188 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 11:19 am

    C@t

    There is obviously a “story behind the story” which Workman has not penetrated, which does rather make one suspect that it was the anti-Husar mob who leaked the material.

    As I keep on saying, with absolutely no proof yet at all, but this is Mark Latham’s former ALP tribe that is doing this, from out in the far west of Sydney around Liverpool and Penrith and the Blue Mountains, and Emma Husar is considered by them as a johnny-come-lately to the ALP. She hasn’t paid her dues and all that. So there would be a lot of resentment there towards her. It has to be stoutly resisted, of course, because for those people to have a win here would just send us back to the bad old days.

  2. Imacca@10:00am
    “BOM declares a 50% chance of el nino this spring”
    According to Paris agreement the world governments agreed to restrict average temperature rise by the end of 21st century by 2° C. However from the current average temperature rise estimates (for example, as per SMH monthly reports last year), the temperatures have risen by 0.8°C and that was in 2017.
    In ABC24, it was reported that Europe recorded it’s highest temperature in Portugal in about 100 years, which is 47°C.
    It is reported that currently 95% of NSW is drought stricken. The supplementary assistance this MT government is giving to farmers is pathetic , which is 7000 for single person per year and 12000 per year.

    We have somebody called Grimace, who says farmers shouldn’t get any government assistance. Well Grimace, you are completely wrong in saying that. Why?
    Farming is not a business in true sense of that word ( although astonishingly MT today called it a business while declaring an assistance so that people like you justify it as business ) because they are ones produce the thing that keeps us alive and sustains our lives and that is called food. So be grateful to them. They may never vote ALP. That doesn’t mean we should be hostile to them.

  3. Vic:

    I don’t think the spat was confected either, but Trump is giving them everything else they want, from removal of environmental protections, removal of pollution controls, a Scotus candidate etc.

    Not much for the Old White Men to be outraged about.

  4. Having said all that about Workman’s reporting.

    My advice to political parties. Set up the rules so staff employed by politicians are clearly the responsibility of the employer that is the MP or their party when not an independent.

    Then have a body outside the employer that allegations can be made to. Kind of like the Human Rights Commission for discrimination.

    This gives a fair process and makes it less likely that there will be a political motive to make an allegation. The political operative will know any such allegations will be given a fair process seen to be so and thus using spurious allegations (I am not referring to any specific case here) is reduced massively as a motive to launch a smear campaign

    Edit: This eliminates the criminal (the employer) investigating themselves Just in case I did not make this clear

  5. Ven @ #2201 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 11:29 am

    We have somebody called Grimace, who says farmers shouldn’t get any government assistance. Well Grimace, you are completely wrong in saying that.

    No, he is not completely wrong. Farmers who are farming in areas that are now clearly unsustainable should get only one form of assistance – which is a chance to sell their “farming rights” back to the government, with the land to be then classified as non-arable for commercial purposes. If they wish, they can still live on the land, and use it for small-scale sustainable farming or other sustainable activities (e.g. tourism) – but no more farming. They could also apply for grants for rehabilitation of degraded land.

    This is similar to the way the biodiversity conservation trust now works.

  6. P1

    They could also apply for grants for rehabilitation of degraded land.

    I don’t disagree with you, but find it ironic that those same farmers may have degraded the land by clearing in the first place. 🙂

  7. Having a baby?

    Are you selfish, inconsiderate or just accident prone?

    The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement wants you to rethink having children

    If you announce on Facebook that you’re having a baby, don’t expect Les Knight to be among the well-wishers.

    The self-described “finder” of the provocatively-named Voluntary Human Extinction Movement — or VHEMT (pronounced “vehement”) — says congratulating people on a pregnancy is an example of “natalist propaganda”.

    “If someone announces on social media that they’re expecting, everybody’s going to say congratulations,” Mr Knight told RN Drive’s Patricia Karvelas.

    “If somebody says ‘we decided not to procreate’, there’s going to be a lot of silence there.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-05/voluntary-human-extinction-movement/10071036

  8. RealClear Politics..
    Will Trump be able to transfer his upswing ( unbelievable as it is ) to the November Congressional vote, given he plans to have rallies 5 days a week between now & November.The country is stuffed!

    President Trump Job Approval IBD/TIPP Approve 41, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +9
    President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 48, Disapprove 50Disapprove +2

    2018 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 44, Republicans 40 Democrats +4
    2018 Generic Congressional Vote Reuters/Ipsos Democrats 42, Republicans 36 Democrats +6
    2018 Generic Congressional Vote Rasmussen Reports Democrats 46, Republicans 40 Democrats +6

  9. lizzie @ #2211 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 11:50 am

    P1

    They could also apply for grants for rehabilitation of degraded land.

    I don’t disagree with you, but find it ironic that those same farmers may have degraded the land by clearing in the first place. 🙂

    Yes, I know. But paying them to remediate – with suitable expert assistance – is probably the least worst option 🙁

  10. As I pointed out before: every complainant gets nervous about the progress of the investigation. This does NOT permit them to take a confidential process public.

    By doing so they destroy the very process they have commenced and stand to benefit from.

    There is some (tenuous and highly restricted) case for expressing doubts about the process if it is kept to proper channels e.g. senior management. But tjere is NO case for rehashing the details and publishing the allegations. That is an absolute no-no.

    I repeat my proposition that the Husar investigation has been compromised beyond d redemption of any kind and should be abandoned.

    To allow it to continue gives licence to any dissatisfied participant to go public, and by doing so wrecking any future, similar matter.

    Whelan shod have the courage to concede this and resign,neither a recommendation that the investigation be permanently cancelled and not restarted.

  11. Re. my last post: I give up.

    You really do have to wonder which complete moron wrote the predictive typing algorithm for Google Android phones.

  12. The NSW state member for East Hills wont recontest his seat. East Hills is one of the most marginal seats in the state and is currently held by Liberal MP Glenn Brooks.

  13. The only question of decentralisation is why has it not worked?

    Have a look around the world. A common theme. More megacities less small cities.

    Decentralisation is a lofty goal but do not be fooled. Cities form from people moving to be together. Its human nature. We are social animals.

    In Australia given our small population and the means of geographical areas to sustain such populations its no wonder the east coast is where most of the population is. Remember the basic fact. Water source was the reason that settlements formed in the first place. That basic fact still rules.

    We can encourage more growth in regional areas by using technology like Fibre to the Home but be under no illusion megacities are here to stay.

    Thats the whole reason we need to look at limiting population growth. It will make us a richer country. Less pollution. Less cost in maintaining infrastructure. We have a critical mass for manufacturing if we make efforts to support it. Of course that means dithcing neo liberalism and going back to the era when governments invested in rail lines to country towns and the like.

    There is a reason that there are such things as country trains and it had nothing to do with making a profit. Just not a massive loss. Taking rail away meant massive job losses as farmers to name one group lost a fair cost basis to transport goods to market and had to use Trucks only.

    Edit: Sorry forgot to add this. Enter the era of corporate farms.

  14. The Govt has ‘privatised the Barrier Reef’ is a great slogan…..people didn’t like the ‘privatising of Medicare’…..ALP should run with it.

  15. Question for the Government.

    Why is giving the GBRF responsibility for allocating $444 million better than the existing grants process?

  16. Perhaps the fed govt could think of providing funds for research into the farms/farmers that do not require assistance in drought years. What are the factors that protect them?

  17. Replace Farming with any other form of business and tell me what government provides financial assistance to allow the entrepreneur to keep operating without drawing down on their capital simply because conditions have turned in a way that whilst not precisely predictable were inevitable?

    Even before you get to the effects of climate change, which the majority of these pricks have consistently voted to exacerbate, droughts are not unforeseen events. They are completely part of the farming cycle. If you want to do agricultural business you plan to deal with that or you fuck off.

    People who fall for the hero farmer myth and fork out a few bucks (again) for the latest sob story are suckers. You’re being played. Just ask yourself if we had a financial downturn and all the restaurants suddenly were struggling would you cry for the restaurateurs?

    Farmers are entitled to the same support as anyone else, but that’s it. Cleared every inch of your land? Overstocked the place to ridiculous levels? Didn’t use your profits to increase your water storage or stockpile fodder? Oh, what a shame you were shit at running an agricultural business. Don’t worry about the farm, the bank will sell that. Here’s Centrelink’s number. Eventually you’ll get through and the dole and rent allowance on a place in town will come your way. Don’t forget to apply for jobs…

    These pricks vote to punish everyone doing it tough. It’s about time a few more of them got to enjoy the tender mercies of the system they support for everyone else.

  18. lizzie

    Two major factors. Purchasing food to sustain a herd or flock if you are an livestock farmer.

    Cost of getting goods to market for all farmers.

  19. Why is giving the GBRF responsibility for allocating $444 million better than the existing grants process?

    Because then they’d have to be accountable and couldn’t just hand over millions to their corporate mates! 😀

  20. Perhaps the fed govt could think of providing funds for research into the farms/farmers that do not require assistance in drought years.

    Trumble will love that idea Lizzie. He can call up a few mates in big biz to set up a West of the Great Dividing Range Fund.

    One meeting, half a Billion later, Karl Stefanovic will be telling everyone how important the research the WGDRF does is and how everyone should just lay off…

  21. I repeat my proposition that the Husar investigation has been compromised beyond d redemption of any kind and should be abandoned.

    Abandoning the investigation would make no sense because it would help nobody. It wouldn’t help Husar, it wouldn’t help her many accusers, it wouldn’t help the ALP, it wouldn’t help the voters in Husar’s electorate. Whelan should release his findings about the merits of the accusations. He will most likely find that some of the accusations are credible.

    Whatever Whelan reports, Husar will not be pre-selected again because she is too weak a candidate to run in a highly marginal seat. Politically her only hope is to spend some time out of politics, earn back the public’s trust, go through a process of redemption, and contest a seat in the future. Probably it would make more sense for her to pursue a career outside of politics. If a large number of your staff find your workplace toxic, that is on you, and you have no business managing other people.

  22. Rick Wilson smacks ‘racist’ Trump hard for slurring LeBron James and questioning his intelligence

    Responding to a Friday night tweet from President Donald Trump, who attacked both NBA star LeBron James and CNN host Don Lemon by questioning both black men’s intelligence, GOP consultant Rick Wilson called out the president as a racist.

    Late Friday evening, Trump tweeted: “Lebron James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon. He made Lebron look smart, which isn’t easy to do. I like Mike!”

    Wilson, a harsh critic of Trump, immediately responded, “Racist sh*tbird says what?”

    The GOP consultant continued to pile on Trump on Saturday monrning for his LeBron slur, snapping at him Twitter and re-tweeting some choice comments about the president attacking a black athlete he had formerly praised.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/rick-wilson-smacks-racist-trump-hard-slurring-lebron-james-questioning-intelligence/

  23. Barney

    I had several friends, many years ago, who decided not to have children because of overpopulation. However, the proponent’s logic fell apart with this:

    Mr Knight denies that the fact animals reproduce in the wild is proof that having children is a natural urge. “What they’re doing is engaging in activities that lead to procreation, same as us,” he says.

    “We have instincts, or urges at least, that cause us to engage in [sex], but the actual instinct to procreate is actually a cultural indoctrination.”

    cultural indoctrination?

    Can you imagine a lioness being lectured by her mother: ‘Now dear, when am I going to hear the patter of little paws?’

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-05/voluntary-human-extinction-movement/10071036

  24. No it’s not ridiculous
    Arbib is finding that working for the goanna just doesn’t give him the same satisfaction as serving the public (particularly in the farming sense) by performing good deeds in parliament

  25. ratsak

    I understand that any suggestion will be gamed by Turnbull and his mates, but I was serious – probably better analysed by a govt dept. Turn the question upside down. Example – the dog that didn’t bark in the nighttime.

  26. Twitter comment.

    Drought-stricken farmers are mostly in debt to the banks. Where do you think most of @TurnbullMalcolm’s farmers’ handout will go?

  27. Lizzie,

    What’s required to make a farm sustainable across the entire range of weather isn’t really that big a mystery. It just requires investing in backup systems for lean times, and doesn’t allow for a lot of the practices that farmers like because they maximise the returns in good years but make the bad years worse. We allow ‘she’ll be right, the government will provide’ to become the standard risk management tool.

    Take that away and you won’t need special government science. One good drought would sort out the businesses that have managed their risk from the ones that deserve to fail.

  28. phoenixRED @ #2236 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 12:19 pm

    Late Friday evening, Trump tweeted: “Lebron James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon. He made Lebron look smart, which isn’t easy to do. I like Mike!”

    Wilson, a harsh critic of Trump, immediately responded, “Racist sh*tbird says what?”

    Also, who the hell is Mike?

  29. a r says: Sunday, August 5, 2018 at 12:42 pm

    phoenixRED @ #2236 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 12:19 pm

    Late Friday evening, Trump tweeted: “Lebron James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon. He made Lebron look smart, which isn’t easy to do. I like Mike!”

    Wilson, a harsh critic of Trump, immediately responded, “Racist sh*tbird says what?”

    Also, who the hell is Mike?

    ****************************************************

    According to this :

    Trump finished the tweet with “I like Mike!” an apparent reference to favoring NBA legend Michael Jordan in a comparison with James as perhaps the best NBA player ever.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/trump-questions-lebron-james-intelligence-late-night-twitter-attack/

  30. Buzzfeed having damaged Husar’s reputation by going public with an unsubstantiated allegation that Husar behaved lewdly, has proved that First Dog on the Moon is one of our most prescient political commentators. “The Footyshowification of our MSM is almost complete.”

    Although Husar is a long shot to win Lindsay after this MSM slimelighting, I’d prefer Labor to give her a chance anyway. Labor’s going to secure a solid enough majority to risk losing Lindsay, and not even Murdoch will succeed in convincing voters elsewhere to abandon their hip pocket nerve or their personal well-being to scuttle a pollie outside their own electorate. She’s not within cooee of a liability as Sam Dastyari or Daryl Macguire, and our genius journos cannot turn her into one.

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