Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot

    I find it v disconcerting that you have ignored all principles of natural justice pointed out to you @workmanalice to double down to defend your unprofessional actions by REPEATING the most salacious on #Insiders Fellow panellists giving cues.

  2. “The Liberal part[y] seems to have taken to throwing serious money around like confetti in an attempt to win the next election.”

    This actually reminds me of John Howard’s “policies overboard” phase in early 2001, with the Howard Government throwing money at various problems, especially glitches in the GST, in an effort to stem a haemorrhaging of Coalition votes. No worries about fiscal responsibility or deficits back then either. This was before the Tampa hove over the horizon, to be shortly followed by 9/11.

  3. West Australia only Galaxy poll. Note that it is very close to the current running BludgerTrack estimate for WA (check out the primaries in both and see).

    The TPP is 51 L/NP 49 ALP. An improvement for the govt since this WA only poll was run a year ago, but stilll a 3.7 point swing to Labot since the election.

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/federal-politics/yougov-galaxy-poll-reveals-coalition-preferred-party-to-lead-country-in-wa-ng-b88916930z

    https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/

  4. lizzie @ #2130 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 10:10 am

    Victoria

    Tony Burke was good. Workman insisted she was always right, PvO was fair, Stutchbury not as dominant as usual because Alice. 🙂

    Alice Workman has practiced circular breathing while talking, a la Scott Morrison, and she would not be denied that she was right to release salacious, unproven leaked material, simply, in reduction, it seemed, because she did it and she believes she is always right to do whatever she does! To the extent that she stoutly defended the accuser who generated the salacious material, even when the contradictory facts of it were put to her directly!

    Methinks she was protesting too much.

  5. adrian @ #2155 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 8:35 am

    Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot

    I find it v disconcerting that you have ignored all principles of natural justice pointed out to you @workmanalice to double down to defend your unprofessional actions by REPEATING the most salacious on #Insiders Fellow panellists giving cues.

    I think Mr Denmore has it right below: editorial oversight is what seems to have been missing.

  6. There has been no principle of “natural justice” that has been ignored! If so, the same would apply to all those targets of investigative journalism – Craig McLaclan, Don Burke et al.

    If Husar thinks she has been defamed, as Sarah Hanson-Young unquestionably has, she is free to take the appropriate action.

  7. I have a suspicion that Workman might have a personal history with some aspect of the Husar story — her vehemence is over the top

  8. It’s not right, in the main, but how would Alice Workman like it if people leaked details of what it is like to work with her, or what she gets up to in her down time from work, or in her private life and in her relationships? She’d squeal louder than a stuck pig, I reckon.

  9. Local Perth Sunday Times is in full cheer mode for Turnbull this morning.
    He’s “back in the game” according to the star billing given to him today.
    A YouGuv Gallaxy poll of some 800 locals has given the LNP a 51-49 lead in their poll. The commentary is a little guarded as it is pointed out, even with this number, three Liberal seats are in the gun. However, to cheer its readership up, Turnbull – front page stuff is……………Back in the Game………dontcha know………………………….
    I see Joe Spagnolo’s fingers all over this ……………he of the commentary a week or so out from Super Saturday who claimed that even a drop Labor’s vote, if they won both the two local seats, was bad, bad, bad for Shorten and was yet another “test” for his leadership.

  10. IMO, You’ll pollster is heavily biased towards LNP OT it is so lazy that it may have poled in LNP held seats. Since it started polling in Australia, it showed 50-50 in federal polls when others were showing 54-46 or 53-47 to ALP. Even in by-election polls it showed LNP leading decisively. You read the commentary on the poll it is LNP biased.

    https://www-perthnow-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.perthnow.com.au/politics/federal-politics/yougov-galaxy-poll-reveals-coalition-preferred-party-to-lead-country-in-wa-ng-b88916930z.amp?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.perthnow.com.au%2Fpolitics%2Ffederal-politics%2Fyougov-galaxy-poll-reveals-coalition-preferred-party-to-lead-country-in-wa-ng-b88916930z

  11. WTF indeed! If he was granted Russian citizenship does this mean he’s now a dual citizen?

    Russia has appointed action movie star Steven Seagal as a special envoy for humanitarian ties with the United States.

    The foreign ministry announced the move on Saturday on its Facebook page, saying Seagal’s portfolio in the unpaid position would be to “facilitate relations between Russia and the United States in the humanitarian field, including cooperation in culture, arts, public and youth exchanges.”

    The actor, who was granted Russian citizenship in 2016, has vocally defended Putin’s policies, including Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and has criticised the US government.

  12. Player One and BK

    The Coalition can’t agree to a complete restructure for farmers because that would admit that CC is real and needs long term planning. Turnbull doing all the feely feels around their plight doesn’t do anything practical for them.

  13. “Meanwhile:
    Remarkably, scientists can now work out in just a matter of days how much human-induced climate change has had to do with a particular weather event, using a combination of observation, historical data and current information from weather stations. ”

    For me, in that context, this paper this paper is really interesting. from way back in 2004.

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003GL019133

    The blocking high pressure system they predicted has happened already. Causes the drought in California, and a wobbling jetstream that has implications for the “weather” across the North American continent, the Atlantic and Europe. And it all links back to Arctic Ice extent and thickness which is in decline due to AGW. The whole “this event cant be linked to AGW” thing is bullshit, at least as far as the Northern Hemisphere is concerned.

  14. “I’m looking forward to Farmers acknowledging how grateful they are for socialism.”

    LoL Itza! And the Nats to out themselves as Agrarian Socialists and dump the coalition?? 🙂

  15. Insiders. Workman’s justification for publishing all details was that NSW Labor had a history of not publishing the results of investigations (even though this one wasn’t completed yet).

  16. I thought Bourke nailed the GBF Foundation when he said…..”so a CSIRO reef scientist will have to go to a private foundation to receive taxpayer funds for research”…..

    Also he said that the commercial in confidence period is indefinite- they can wine and dine and rack up expenses on taxpayers money, and it will be kept secret FOREVER.

  17. torchbearer @ #2175 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 11:02 am

    I thought Bourke nailed the GBF Foundation when he said…..”so a CSIRO reef scientist will have to go to a private foundation to receive taxpayer funds for research”…..

    Also he said that the commercial in confidence period is indefinite- they can wine and dine and rack up expenses on taxpayers money, and it will be kept secret FOREVER.

    Too right. I forgot that bit. He called it out – it is *privatising the public service*, and in confidence for friggen ever.

  18. Denise Brailey‏ @DeniseBrailey · 26m26 minutes ago
    Denise Brailey Retweeted Tracey Hoolachan

    $555 million for 3 refugees {Cambodian offfshore detention} and only $190million for our Farmers and FOODBOWL? Government’s handout just another publicity stunt to take heat off the $443k handout to Mining Mates in #REEFGATE We all see through you Malcolm. #BFCSA #auspol

  19. As came out on Bill Maher (thanks again Confessions), they are changing the rules, bypassing the constitution, in our case the parliament, and cementing their toxic policies in place making any future reversions at best difficult.

  20. Also he said that the commercial in confidence period is indefinite- they can wine and dine and rack up expenses on taxpayers money, and it will be kept secret FOREVER.

    Yes, as Burke pointed out, even Cabinet papers get released after 20-30 years.

  21. Itza:

    More people need to be aware of this. In the US at least, it isn’t a simple matter of just getting out and voting if the rules make it difficult if not impossible to actually vote.

  22. Itzadream

    Why do you think I have been so focussed on the US state of play.
    Whatever happens there has a huge flow on effect everywhere else. In particular here due to our close alignment with the US.
    Having said that I am still confident that Trump and his minions will not succeed in the wholesale take over of democratic institutions or the constitution. Even though at present it doesn’t actually look that way!

  23. For whoever said it above, I think what media has done to Rush and McLaughlin was also wrong (I have no opinion of overseas stuff).

    There is a distinct lack of integrity in such reporting at the moment, and fear of being scooped is probably a major factor. Buzzfeed, hoping to make its mark on the Aussie scene, has gone for the sensational at the expense of integrity in journalism.

    This is why the Joyce thing is so contradictory – the journos claim ‘unsubstantiated’ as a defence for Joyce when in reality they were likely waiting until after byelection in order to not influence. In Husar’s case they broke it before byelections – whether they hoped to influence is another question, but it didn’t.

    I am married to a Super A journalist (40 yrs). He was ‘read the riot act’ in training and warned NEVER to breach confidentiality or ongoing investigations into private matters. It is called journalistic integrity. Seems to be lacking in our new ‘expanded’ age if click bait journalism.

  24. Meanwhile I have been waiting patiently for more indictments to drop which will affect the Trumpster quite directly.
    Although patience is definitely not one of my virtues.

  25. Lovey @ #2166 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 10:51 am

    C@tmomma

    You do realise your head office has directed that members not discuss this (secret) matter?

    I’m not ‘discussing it’ because I know nothing about it other than what I have read. I’m discussing the mechanics of its being pruriently purveyed by the media, and especially one particular journalist. Especially when it has been convincingly shown that that particular journalist has been caught out peddling lies, which needed to be corrected when the originator of that lie was caught out telling the lie and so had to make up and relate a new story to another journalist.

    Not to mention the fact, which seems to be beyond your ken, Lovey, that the Manager of Opposition Business in the federal parliament, and one of the senior members of the NSW Labor Party, discussed the matter with Barrie Cassidy today on Insiders.

  26. Vic:

    Did you see the report I posted earlier re Trump? Leaks from the WH suggest he is privately very, very worried about the direction of Mueller’s investigation, in particular how it will all wash out with Don Jnr.

  27. C@t

    There is obviously a “story behind the story” which Workman has not penetrated, which does rather make one suspect that it was the anti-Husar mob who leaked the material.

  28. Cheryl Kernot defending Husar is interesting
    Kernot’s private life certainly intersected with her public life. She and Evans kept this hidden and in doing so betray the trust of Bomber. It was eventually exposed when she omitted it from her autobiography – too much hypocrisy for the press gallery.
    If you are in public life I think you should be prepared for your privacy to be invaded

  29. The farmers I know would find it a challenge to work ‘for’ someone

    Oh the poor dears. No worries, lets sling a few more hundred million at them. And good lord don’t make em have to deal with Centrelink to get their hands on it like the plebs. We want them to be able to actually access the support.

  30. Victoria @ #2182 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 11:14 am

    Itzadream

    Why do you think I have been so focussed on the US state of play.
    Whatever happens there has a huge flow on effect everywhere else. In particular here due to our close alignment with the US.
    Having said that I am still confident that Trump and his minions will not succeed in the wholesale take over of democratic institutions or the constitution. Even though at present it doesn’t actually look that way!

    They’ve got the Supreme Court. They’re setting citizen against citizen. I am (naively probably) staggered at how quick is the unravelling.

  31. lizzie @ #2174 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 11:00 am

    Insiders. Workman’s justification for publishing all details was that NSW Labor had a history of not publishing the results of investigations (even though this one wasn’t completed yet).

    I can’t remember the Liberal Party publicly putting out the results of their internal investigations.

    I can’t remember the Nationals publicly putting out the results of their internal investigations.

    I can’t remember The Greens publicly putting out the results of their internal investigations.

    So why should the Labor Party have to!?!

    Or, in other words, it just sounds like another half-baked, sleazy excuse for the inexcusable by Alice Workman.

  32. Fess

    Trump knows what Don Jnr has done. He also knows what JKushner has as well.
    He also understands that Mueller is holding all the cards.
    Indictments are probably very close for these two.
    Meanwhile I didn’t quite agree with the Professor on Bill Maher show. That the Trump and Koch spat was confected.
    Koch bros are pissed off with the tariffs Trump imposed

  33. Good Morning

    Regarding Alice Workman. I tended to the story had to be told. However it should have been a one day wonder not the days of it we have got.

    As with #metoo claims of dubious responses to complaints have to be reported. However professional journalists would have made the point explicit that these are only allegations not verified and due to politics there are reasons to question the motives of allegations. You can do this without dismissing the allegations. You are just putting them in context.

    All the stories on Weinstein made the point about police not investigating complaints.
    In this case even on Insiders we have Alice Workman outline that yes complaints were taken to the Finance Department and that Labor is investigating because they are the employers.

    Workman has known this from the start yet we saw an Ex Liberal MP on the Drum asking that very question. Why was it not taken to the Finance Department?

    With the facts disclosed we the public now know that Labor is the employer and thus the right body to do the initial investigation. Thus the basic point about questioning the investigation comes into play.
    Workman has in her defence revealed that Labor was the right body to investigate. She also revealed that the salacious details are not the question here. The question is was the investigation happening properly. Thus her protestations about if it was not known more people would not have come forward.

    So with what we know publicly I think it shows Labor has been doing the right thing. Of course Bill Shorten should not have been told. That would be denying natural justice to Hussar. There may be confidential information that contradicts what we know publicly and is why Workman published the story. I have no idea as does no one else outside Buzzfeed.

    So take away the salacious claims Barrie Cassidy demolished the case for publishing the story seems very weak. So unless Workman has information to show the investigation was dodgy I now conclude the story should never have been published in the first place. I was always uncomfortable with it even when I did think there was reason to question the investigation. Now its crystal clear that publishing the allegations before the investigation concluded is indeed denying natural justice for all the reasons BB outlined.

    Compare and contrast with the story on the Greens. There we know its the investigation that is under question admitted by the Greens themselves.
    Thats the issue and when you focus on that its pretty clear Buzzfeed is in a world of trouble with a defamation case. Especially if as a result Hussar cannot be a politician anymore. It increases the damage payout.

  34. Speak for yourself – one of the architects of the modern NSW Labor Party (admittedly I am missing Roosendaal more – surely we can find him a seat in the LC)
    (heavy handed sarcasm)

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