Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Shellbell@8:36pm
    A knob called Ray Hadley, who terrorised innocent people with BS and made LNP Ministers state or Federal grovel in front of his radio shockhorror. He doesn’t deserve any sympathy from anybody.

  5. DavidWh

    I get many a call from mates whose kids have been busted at parties with fuck knows what. The parents despair. We sort them out.

    Hadley is exploitative by nature. He cannot but exploit this.

    On Friday he went through this elaborate charade of naming a woman who was rooting an inmate in her role as gaoler. Then he did a podcast about it with an image superimposed of him feigning an angry look. Only problem is that In the image he is wearing a country club shirt.

    That would be the club where Hadley play golf with the fellas a few times a week.

    Maybe Hadley should stop hangin with the fellas at the country club.

    Kicking him when he is down remains appropriate for as long as it takes until the stomping can begin.

  7. “Great game of footy, even my Collingwood pal enjoyed it”. Yes, great match, Sprocket. The last time Alex Johnson played the Swans won a premiership – never know.

  9. “I wonder what the focus will be on tomorrow on Insiders? Reefgate or Emma Husar?”

    At a guess, I’d say whichever took up the most acres of newsprint and the most hours of broadcast airtime.

  12. Kicking him when he is down remains appropriate for as long as it takes until the stomping can begin.

    Do have to admit to thinking roughly along the same lines.

    The son needs fixing up and is entitled to innocence until proved guilty etc. He was probably too scared of old Dad to tell him he had a problem. It was obviously not a one-off, though, as it seems the internal investigators had been onto him.

    But for Hadley, there is little reason for mercy. It will be interesting to see how he tries to worm his way out of this one. I am expecting a sermon on the virtues of penitence and reform.

    But he’s pissed off most of his “mates” already. UberTuber went the other day. Morrison before him. Only Abbott left. Who I doubt will be much help. There would be a few local State MPs who’d be lining up for the smacking.

  13. Eddy Jokovich

    @EddyJokovich

    The $443 million donation to Reef NGO has really dropped off the radar in the #MSM. The greatest government scandal since Khemlani and media has decided to chase Labor MP stories instead. #auspol #abcnews24 #ReefGate

  14. “You only have to look at the outrage by Turnbull during the Godwin gretch scandal demanding Rudd and Swan resign for a perceived conflict.
    This just boggles the mind”

    Let’s do a back of the envelope comparison:

    Utegate: banged up 15 year old ute, value $10k tops

    Reefgate: $444 million.

  15. Steve777 @ #2063 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 10:57 pm

    “You only have to look at the outrage by Turnbull during the Godwin gretch scandal demanding Rudd and Swan resign for a perceived conflict.
    This just boggles the mind”

    Let’s do a back of the envelope comparison:

    Utegate: banged up 15 year old ute, value $10k tops

    Reefgate: $444 million.

    Utegate : msm loved it ran with like a greyhound

    Reekgate (no pun) : Ho hum. Next.

  16. @adrian

    It has not.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/senator-calls-out-karl-stefanovic-s-conflict-of-interests-promoting-great-barrier-reef-foundation-20180804-p4zvjf.html
    https://www.w3livenews.com/News/ReadArticle
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-03/turnbull-defends-cash-to-reef-foundation/10070556
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/03/bill-shorten-malcolm-turnbull-443m-reef-foundation-scandal
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/malcolm-bligh-hits-a-reef-turnbulls-half-a-billion-buck-handout-may-scupper-pm,11756
    https://thirdsector.com.au/labor-abandoned-responsibility-environment-minister-insists-443m-great-barrier-reef-grant-followed-right-guidelines/
    http://sydneynow.info/2018/08/03/turnbull-defends-surprise-444-million-government-donation-to-tiny-reef-body/

    Anything I missing ?

  17. ABC late news:

    Leads with tampon tax, recites Government tax release, goes back over history, op eds of voters saying what a great thing Shouty Mc Shoutface has done.

    Next item, surprisingly, the Garma festival and indigenous recognition. So ABC hasn’t yet sunk to the level of commercials.

    Then drought in Queensland.

    Then the netball car park crash in Sydney.

  18. Zoidlord, I think that most of your links seem to prove the point of the tweet.
    Look at how most of them are framed particularly the ABC’s report, and imagine if it was Labor doing the same thing.

  19. I have a feeling that the likes of Qantas and other industries sensitive to public criticism, will soon move to dissociate themselves from the GBR mob.

  20. Quite obviously SloMo announcing the removal of the “tampon tax” is designed to divert attention from #reefgate and the online patient records disaster. Of course that will only work for a day or so, meaning we will probably be subjected to more attempts to distract attention away from Turnbull’s disasters.

  21. citizen @ #2068 Saturday, August 4th, 2018 – 11:15 pm

    I have a feeling that the likes of Qantas and other industries sensitive to public criticism, will soon move to dissociate themselves from the GBR mob.

    Maybe.

    But most are up to their necks in the arseholes of the tories.

    If they do {dissociate} it will just be more BS and covering their own backsides.

    Give them nothing. Take’m no where.

  22. Hadley seems to have used the arrest and charging of his son as a pretext for making himself the centre of attention, showing a preparedness to exploit anything and anyone including his own children in order to run up his own flag. He is a shameless user.

    I feel sorry for his son.

  23. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/04/australia-not-a-united-country-yolngu-leader-tells-garma-festival

    This issue will not go away until it is resolved on terms acceptable to aboriginal peoples.

    Let there be a prime minister” who can find a way towards recognition of Australia’s first people, a Yolngu leader has told the Garma festival.

    Djawa Yunupingu, a senior Gumatj leader and deputy chair of the Yothu Yindi Foundation, said Australia was not a united country, and its non-Indigenous people enjoyed a stolen sovereignty.

    Djawa opened the key forum at the Garma festival in northeast Arnhem Land with a speech on this year’s theme of “truth telling”, surrounded by members of the multi-clan Dilak council.

    He urged the festival attendees to think of his people when they enjoyed the dances and songs of the “constitution in action”.

    “And please think about what is fair to them. And let’s see if together we can find a pathway where we can all be included in the nation’s constitution.

    “Let there be a person who puts up a light and says ‘here, come with me, there is a better way’. This is how it must be now and forever.

    “Let there be a prime minister who does that.”

  25. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s slim pickings Sunday.

    Greg Jericho has had enough of the virus of odious ignorance that has infected conservative thinking and politics. An excellent contribution.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/aug/05/a-virus-of-odious-ignorance-has-infected-conservative-thinking-and-politics
    Kristina Keneally’s not holding back on Reefgate. Here she takes a well-aimed swipe at pretty boy Karl Stefanovik. And his significant conflict of interest.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/senator-calls-out-karl-stefanovic-s-conflict-of-interests-promoting-great-barrier-reef-foundation-20180804-p4zvjf.html
    This Reuters article explains how the Paul Manafort trial, on the face of it, is about tax evasion but really it’s about how Russia moves money and buys influence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/paul-manafort-s-trial-is-about-putin-not-tax-evasion-20180802-p4zv58.html
    A despairing Peter FitzSimons goes of at those who just can’t accept the plastic bag ban.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-mean-how-hard-is-it-to-ditch-plastic-bags-20180803-p4zvfl.html
    And Matt Holden wonders what it is about Coles customers and plastic bags. I think it’s a Sydney thing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-is-it-about-coles-customers-and-plastic-bags-20180803-p4zvdd.html
    The Queensland police culture is now “way worse” than before the landmark reforms of the Fitzgerald inquiry, say advocates, who are preparing to launch a new independent group to highlight the state’s lack of oversight of police misconduct and corruption.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/05/independent-group-targets-misconduct-and-corruption-in-queensland-police
    The Conversation tells us that there is precious little detail in the NEG papers so far on how exactly on how its assertions are backed up.
    https://theconversation.com/could-the-neg-bring-down-power-prices-its-hard-to-be-confident-that-it-will-100965
    Colin Long, from the National Tertiary Education Union tells us that few people are likely to realise that one of the worst industries for insecure work is now higher education.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/casualisation-of-university-workforce-is-a-national-disgrace-20180803-p4zvcm.html
    The SMH editorial calls for far greater consumer protection when it comes to private health insurance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/consumers-deserve-watertight-protections-for-health-insurance-20180804-p4zvi0.html
    Nassim Khadem writes that Labor wants to cap private health insurance premiums at 2 per cent if it wins government but there could be unintended consequences industry warns.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/shorten-s-private-health-premium-cap-bad-policy-or-circuit-breaker-20180802-p4zv6w.html
    This NT doctor has opted out of MyHealth and he tells us why.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-health-record-doctor-privacy-opt-20180803-p4zvf0.html
    NSW farmers are doing it hard in the drought.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/how-far-this-farmer-travels-to-keep-his-livestock-alive-20180802-p4zv74.html
    Trump is at it again with insane, racist tweeting activity.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-mocks-the-intelligence-of-lebron-james-and-cnn-host-20180805-p4zvkw.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman has found our PM!

    Matt Golding and the NEG.

    Sean Leahy gives Coles a serve.


    Jon Kudelka on the four pillars of banking.

    And he has a dig at developers.

    Here’s today’s Fairfax offerings.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-august-5-2018-20180804-h13k87.html

  26. I wonder what the focus will be on tomorrow on Insiders? Reefgate or Emma Husar?”

    At a guess, I’d say whichever took up the most acres of newsprint and the most hours of broadcast airtime.

    And they will use that as a justification for only mentioning reefgate in passing, because…. oh I guess if some has been covered to death this week (Husar), let’s pile on some more.

    Thanks BK, the Broelman cartoon was excellent.

  27. Department of the Environment and Energy documents show that under the terms of the deal, a “direct payment of $22.5 million” drawn from the funding will be paid to the foundation to cover administration costs.

    Staggering.
    Lots of Qantas flights, expensive lunches, gold embossed notepaper and an executive assistant for everyone? Oh, and a few brown paper bagsfull.

  28. While it is unfashionable, in the company of university managers, to suggest that universities are anything more than businesses, we insist that they are much more.

    The rot started in the seventies, when the Faculty of Business took over in many institutions.

  29. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Insiders script for this morning if a Government Minister is the interviewee:

    GM: ‘Good morning, Barrie.’
    BC: ‘Good morning, Minister.
    BC: ‘I’d like to start with the $444 Million that the government paid to the GBR Foundation.’
    GM: ‘Barrie. Barrie. You know that we have been absolutely transparent about it. We announced it at a press conference, for goodness sake! It was in the Budget. Couldn’t be more transparent than that. Everyone now knows that we are serious about saving the Great Barrier Reef! Now, Bill Shorten, on the other hand. What’s he hiding about Emma Husar!?! I don’t believe that he didn’t know anything about it until last week. That just stretches the bounds of credulity. I think Bill Shorten has questions to answer!’

    *sigh*

  31. C@t

    The bit about “it was in the budget and nobody complained” (Scomo) fooled me for a while, until I knew the detail (non-existent). Of course no one would complain about money supposedly set side to “save the Barrier Reef”.

  34. Don Lemon
    ✔
    @donlemon
    Who’s the real dummy? A man who puts kids in classrooms or one who puts kids in cages? #BeBest

    “It looks like LeBron James is working to do good things on behalf of our next generation,” said Melania Trump’s spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham. “And just as she always has, the First Lady encourages everyone to have an open dialogue about issues facing children today.”

  38. Who can doubt that the police are Coalition supporters?

    Some have already compared the spectacle of the raids with former FBI director James Comey’s renewed interest in Hillary Clinton’s email server on the eve of the 2016 US presidential election. It provoked a furious public statement from Labor headquarters on Thursday night. Privately, officials are even more angry.

    “You normally see this type of operational conduct applied to drug dealers and bikie gangs,” one senior Victorian Labor source told Guardian Australia. The party’s lawyers had told police on Monday that it would facilitate interviews with organisers and MPs.

    …
    Following her report, Labor paid back about $380,000. Glass did not recommend further police investigation.

    …
    Patten believes the practice of using electorate officers for campaigning work is widespread across the major parties, a view shared by the whistleblower Finnigan.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/05/red-shirts-scandal-could-rip-through-victorian-labors-election-plans?CMP=share_btn_tw

  39. Methinks the Victorian Police like the idea of a Police State under Matthew ‘Mobster’ Guy. They seem to be doing everything in their power to bring it about.

  41. Morning all. Trump is feeling the Mueller heat, according to this report.

    In private, President Trump spent much of the past week brooding, as he often does. He has been anxious about the Russia ­investigation’s widening fallout, with his former campaign chairman standing trial. And he has fretted that he is failing to accrue enough political credit for what he claims as triumphs.

    At rare moments of introspection for the famously self-centered president, Trump has also expressed to confidants lingering unease about how some in his orbit — including his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr. — are ensnared in the Russia probe, in his assessment simply because of their ­connection to him.

    Yet in public, Trump is a man roaring. The president, more than ever, is channeling his internal frustration and fear into a ravenous maw of grievance and invective. He is churning out false statements with greater frequency and attacking his perceived enemies with intensifying fury. A fresh broadside came on Twitter at 11:37 p.m. Friday, mocking basketball superstar LeBron James and calling CNN’s Don Lemon “the dumbest man on television.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-at-a-precarious-moment-in-his-presidency-privately-brooding-and-publicly-roaring/2018/08/04/4b463842-9736-11e8-810c-5fa705927d54_story.html?utm_term=.4cfd2cdd3e62

  42. Trish‏ @Trish_Corry · 19m19 minutes ago

    Whilst focused on #Reefgate turn your attention to Govt $$ handed over to private organisation Indue. A Govt handshake to profit off the misery of the jobless, when the Govt wipes its hands of job creation so they create more and more jobless. THIS is the REAL scourge. #Auspol

  43. To follow up Mike Carltons brilliant and revealing expose on this charade of a Government yesterday, today we have an equally incisive commentary on the absolutely perverse psychology behind the behaviour and language of this Government and the once-great Party behind it. Two brilliant articles but all the MSM can go on about is the Emma Husar issue.
    Democracy is being eroded by many (not all) parts of the once great Fourth Estate which once fought so valiantly to defend it from the reactionary forces of the Left and the Right.
    Support the Free Press. Subscribe today.

  44. Please, please let it be so! Congress needs to do what it’s supposed to do keeping the executive arm of government to account.

    A Democratic takeover of either chamber of Congress stands to set off investigations into President Trump and his personal finances, members of his family, and senior administration officials, an onslaught that raises the stakes for the midterm elections.

    While some Democrats have pressed for Trump’s impeachment, what would be certain is that Democratic committee chairs would swamp Trump and his deputies with subpoenas, document requests and public hearings that would bog down his administration and distract from his agenda ahead of the 2020 elections.

    Already, congressional Democrats have amassed dozens of oversight requests targeting the White House, various Cabinet departments and private entities with business ties to Trump and his family.

    So far those requests have mostly been ignored by the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. But if Democrats seize committee gavels, they would regain a plethora of tools to probe Trump over the next two years.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trumps-worst-political-nightmare-democrats-with-subpoena-power/2018/08/04/86f7fc6e-9726-11e8-810c-5fa705927d54_story.html?utm_term=.66421ee864f2

  46. Jim AcostaVerified account@Acosta
    7h7 hours ago
    Taking selfies with Trump supporters in Tampa. Really enjoyed talking to some of the folks at the rally and hearing their concerns. As I told many of them.. we can’t do the news just for the Republicans and Trump supporters. We have to do the news for all Americans.

    https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1025768911709589505

    Interestingly the Trump rally is playing Tiny Dancer, an interesting choice of music and artist for bigots.

  50. Morning all. I agree with Greg Jericho and others here – right wing political “debate” has become little more than reflexive lies and denial.

    It is a pattern throughout the english speaking world. This Guardian UK article calls the BBC to task for giving equal time to “balance” pieces on climate change when one side is plainly lying. Time to call lies as lies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/02/bbc-climate-change-deniers-balance

    Unlike this long, well meaning but IMO wrong article that says we must try to understand the denialists. What if there is nothing to understand but greed and fear?
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/aug/03/denialism-what-drives-people-to-reject-the-truth

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