Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. On Tanya. Either she has been working too hard or has had the flu. She doesn’t look herself and a few days ago her hair was all over the place, which is unusual. Lack of sleep, perhaps??

    I thought the hair was a sort of punk thing. As long as she doesn’t take any fashion tips from Bishop or Cash I’m happy for her to turn up in a pair of jeans and converse.

  2. Tricot,
    That’s why the chances of a minority Shorten Government was still a thing on the Sunday. Late counts and postals got a lot of Coalition seats home that were looking much more shaky on the night.

    If I’ve got the right end of the stick, Labor has left nothing to chance this coming election and has upped it’s game wrt postal votes, according to the returns from Longman, if not Braddon, and I would expect this is a long term strategy to harvest as many votes as possible, especially as the demographic getting into their senior years now is the Whitlam generation of lifelong Labor supporters, as opposed to the Menzian Baby Boomers who are falling off the twig more now.

    Also, you miscalculated the ACT potential dividend for Labor. +1 seat likely with Dr John Falzon running in the newly-created Canberra seat. 🙂

  3. Interesting aspect to that half billion to the GBR Foundation is that they handed over the entire amount (6 years worth) in one hit. That is REALLY bad.

  5. jenauthor @ #153 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 11:30 am

    Interesting aspect to that half billion to the GBR Foundation is that they handed over the entire amount (6 years worth) in one hit. That is REALLY bad.

    And according to KK, the CEO of the GBR Foundation, Anna Marsden couldn’t tell the Senate committee which banks it has been placed in as Term Deposits! I smell a rat!
    They probably know but are transferring it back to Oz banks toot sweet, I imagine.

  7. I’ve just had a look on the SMH site (it’s bloody awful and terribly user-unfriendly) and there doesn’t seem to be a story about the $400 million to the Reef outfit. Does anyone know if thee was a story about it but it’s been taken down? It’s huge news if a PM gives away that sort of dough unsolicited and without going through the usual proper channels.

  8. “Didn’t Newspoll change its metric earlier int eh year so it went with a higher % of ON preferences flowing to the LNP, which in turn effected the TPP vote? Not sure about other pollsters.”

    Newspoll did change their allocation to reflect the higher One Nation vote appearing in the polls, compared with 2016. In 2016, the One Nation vote went about 54:46 to the Coalition, now the Coalition share of One Nation preferences seems to be about 65-70.

  9. None of this is a surprise. Shorten isn’t your typical LOTO and he has positioned himself like virtually no LOTO in history has. Hewson is the closest but very imperfect comparison. Labor’s policies negatively impact a far far smaller proportion of the electorate than Fightback and Shorten has already won the argument against the government in a way Hewson never did.

    Plus, Bill and Labor haven’t released all their policies in one big, indigestible lump that the media could pick to bits during the election campaign. So most of the wrinkles have already been ironed out.

    And, if I were a Labor campaign strategist, I would keep the changes to CGT and Negative Gearing up my sleeve for modification in the first Bowen Budget now that the steam has come out of the housing market.

  11. Burgey @ #157 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 11:41 am

    I’ve just had a look on the SMH site (it’s bloody awful and terribly user-unfriendly) and there doesn’t seem to be a story about the $400 million to the Reef outfit. Does anyone know if thee was a story about it but it’s been taken down? It’s huge news if a PM gives away that sort of dough unsolicited and without going through the usual proper channels.

    Yes, you’d think Adele Ferguson or Kate McClymont would be onto it like flies onto a dead dingo.

  13. I should say, I just saw there was a story posted on 30 July about the Senate hearings into the GBR stuff. It mentioned the unsolicited funding being offered by the PM and Minister but very little in the story seemed to focus on that aspect.

  16. I know that Mars is now close to its nearest approach to Earth in 15 years. As for Bruno Mars, I have no idea, never heard of him. I lost track of contemporary popular music some time in the 90s. Popular current music stations don’t play anything I recognise or particularly like. I have no idea what’s in the Top 40 now or if there even still is a ‘Top 40’.

    I must be a grumpy old man.


  17. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, August 1, 2018 at 9:14 am

    Alan Jones is no fan of Turnbull. He no doubt sought out KKeaneally to appear on his program to discuss public funds being authorised by PM to go to an obscure foundation made up of miners and bankers.
    Nothing to see here.

    KKeaneally had a large part in sorting out the NSW Labor corruption; I suspect she can be more direct sorting out the Liberals.

  18. I wouldnt worry about ABC and Guardian being quiet about reefgate. These sorts of things would need some investigative work and checks and legal consideration yadda yadda. So long as they are digging I dont mind a slow burn for now.

    Apparently #reefgate is already a thing relating to Coalition coverup and lobbying of the UN wrt reports.

  19. In 2016, the One Nation vote went about 54:46 to the Coalition, now the Coalition share of One Nation preferences seems to be about 65-70.

    Changing the PHON distribution to account for more previous LNP PV going to them is fair enough. But it they are doing that and not picking up that the Lib PV is down as they did with Longman they will obviously be overstating the Government’s position.

    Seat polls are shit, so it’s hard to draw too many conclusions, but they are the only real data points we have and Longman seems to indicate that a high PHON and a high LNP PV are mutually exclusive. We’ve seen the same dynamic play out in every real election where PHON have been significant, so I think there’s a reasonable argument that the federal polling has overstated Trumble’s ‘recovery’ especially if as you would expect the PHON vote is concentrated in Qld.

    A high PHON vote in Qld always equals LNP seats falling.

  20. Also, you miscalculated the ACT potential dividend for Labor. +1 seat likely with Dr John Falzon running in the newly-created Canberra seat.

    Falzon hasn’t been pre-selected yet.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/first-woman-puts-hand-up-for-labor-canberra-preselection-20180731-p4zuq7.html

    The field of candidates vying for Labor preselection in the seat of Canberra has grown, with the vice-president of the territory branch of the party Alicia Payne throwing her hat in the ring.

    Ms Payne has worked as a senior advisor in the offices of Lindsay Tanner and Bill Shorten, and was most recently chief-of-staff to shadow families and social services minister Jenny Macklin, a role from which she is currently taking maternity leave.
    :::
    Even without a faction, Ms Payne has high-profile support, having been encouraged to run by Labor’s shadow assistant secretary and member for Fenner Andrew Leigh. Also unaligned, Mr Leigh praised Ms Payne on Tuesday, saying “Alicia’s long commitment to Labor and social policy nous are a rare combination. She isn’t in a faction and will be asking everyone in the ALP for support. If chosen, Alicia would be an amazing representative for the new seat”.

    Lobbyist Simon Banks has also confirmed his candidacy, with the list of candidates now growing to five. Charity boss John Falzon has won the endorsement of the party’s Left faction, while greyhound lobbyist Kel Watt and staffer Jacob Ingram are both seeking endorsement from the party’s Right faction. Like Ms Payne, Mr Banks is factionally unaligned.

  22. Pegasus: “Even without a faction, Ms Payne has high-profile support, having been encouraged to run by Labor’s shadow assistant secretary and member for Fenner Andrew Leigh. Also unaligned, Mr Leigh praised Ms Payne on Tuesday, saying “Alicia’s long commitment to Labor and social policy nous are a rare combination. She isn’t in a faction and will be asking everyone in the ALP for support. If chosen, Alicia would be an amazing representative for the new seat”.”

    If she’s the Alicia Payne I’m thinking of, she has a background in economic modelling. Being strongly in favour of economic modelling as an activity, I can only say I personally hope she wins preselection.

  24. Steve777,
    From primary and 2PP votes in Longman here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/longman-by-election-2018/
    and assuming a 50/50% split among the “Others”, it looks more like that about 50-60% of ON second preferences went to the LNP….

    The new allocation of ON preferences in the opinion polls is over-estimating the Coalition 2PP and under-estimating Labor’s…. No surprise then that they will continue to get electoral results wrong wherever ON has a substantial electoral presence.

  25. MB

    From article:

    “As well as five years as a policy analyst at the Department of Treasury, the hopeful candidate started her career as a researcher at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM).”

    Pre-selection is also dependent on:

    “Without formal factional backing, Ms Payne is likely to face an uphill battle when it comes to winning over the party’s voters later this month. Her candidacy also depends on how the party’s affirmative action rules are interpreted. Federally, the party has committed to preselecting women in 50 per cent of winnable seats by 2025, while in the ACT at least 40 per cent of candidates must be women, and at least 40 per cent must be men.

    The ACT rules don’t specify if only winnable seats are to be included in the calculations, which means the second Senate seat, which the party is unlikely to win, would also be included when dividing party endorsement along gender lines.

    It has been widely assumed within the party if incumbent MPs Gai Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh are preselected along with former senator Katy Gallagher, the party would be required to put forward a man in Canberra.”

  27. Re. Scott Morrison’s motor mouth.

    I notice this a lot with (mostly) right wingers: they seem to be incapable of ever conceding a point, real or imagined. NOTHING slips through to the keeper. EVERYTHING is dealt with immediately.

    If they have to break into a conversation to answer a point they will do so. So, as a result, we get the interruptions seen so often on panel shows such as Q&A. It’s as if the point they disagree with cannot be left to exist even as a thought, or breathed air, even for the few seconds needed to complete the sentence in which it is uttered. It has to be corrected and crushed instantly, to the point of rudeness if necessary.

    To me, this smacks of lack of confidence more than anything else. Libs like Morrison are so scared that criticisms of their batty ideas will convince listeners that those criticisms cannot be allowed to stand, even for a few seconds.

    The motor mouth act is a sign of weakness, not of strength

  28. The ABC is poised to launch a new service that is likely to surprise its loyal audience and provoke its competitors and critics. It’s not a hard-hitting new investigative series or radio feature, but a dive into lifestyle journalism.

    ABC Life will cover topics not traditionally covered online by the ABC in a comprehensive way, including work and career, sex and relationships, fashion and personal grooming, travel and adventure, food and cooking, home and family, and pets. As well there will be new digital treatment of health, wellbeing and fitness, personal finance, consumer rights and gardening.

    The new venture comes as those who excel at the ABC’s traditional news and current affairs and specialist programming feel increasingly “spooked” by constant political pressure, management instability and cuts to programs and staff. At a time when the national broadcaster should be muscling up, it is directing resources into what some say is a dumbing down.

    ABC Life also puts the ABC more sharply in direct competition with the extensive lifestyle coverage in the commercial media across digital outlets. The Sydney Morning Herald and the Age, soon to be swallowed up by Nine in a major media merger, target a similar upscale demographic to the ABC. News Corp wants the ABC’s online activities curbed.
    …
    “It is hard to see what ABC Life is doing that is different from many other mainstream media offerings,” a former staffer told Guardian Australia. “How to make pickles and get your best friend to make a wedding cake belongs in New Idea, not the ABC.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/aug/01/the-abc-in-turmoil-frankly-we-are-all-spooked-about-everything-in-here?CMP=share_btn_tw

  30. C@tmomma: “What a stellar list of candidates for Canberra for Labor!”

    I’ve done some googling, and I’d suggest perhaps not that stellar. I reckon Payne is a stand out.

    Banks is a significant figure and would be a worthy choice, but he’s hardly a fresh face.

    Otherwise we have Watt, who is a lobbyist for the greyhound racing industry (probably not a big vote winner among the Canberra population); Jacob Ingram, who looks to be a reasonably young adviser to the Canberra Shire President (oops! my mistake, ACT Chief Minister) Andrew Barr, and Falzon, who looks like he orbits on the very outer reaches of the Labor Left and thereby could potentially cause embarrassment to the party both locally and even nationally.

    Perhaps it’s concerns about these three factional candidates that has prompted national Labor figures to encourage non-aligned people like Payne and Banks to put themselves forwards. Maybe Banks is there as a fallback if the ACT branch executive insists on imposing the 40% male candidate rule (which, if they do, would surely make them something of a laughing stock: but these things can happen).

  31. Every politician should be accountable and we have no problems with the media reporting the facts but, @jkalbrechtsen depicting Emma Husar’s bodiless head in a garbage bag pushes past simply reporting the facts.

  32. Is this the sort of thing we’ll get from a Nine Entertainment Corporation chaired by Peter Costello with radio and newspaper outlets too?

    Sinclair has been producing pro-Trump “must-runs” that air during local news segments across the country. Frequently these segments feature chief political analyst Boris Epshteyn asking softball questions of Trump administration figures like Sarah Huckabee Sanders or Scott Pruitt — at least when Epshteyn is not giving over the top pro-Trump commentary on his own. This week, Epshteyn gave a warm welcome to VP Mike Pence. The first parts of the interview were embarrassingly friendly, with Epshteyn praising Trump’s unpopular tax law.

    The final segment with Pence really jumped the rails. In the clip, Epshteyn did not even ask a question. Rather, the entire “must-run” was Pence talking about how great the Trump administration has been, followed by Epshteyn saying that the Trump administration “has to focus on continuing to achieve success for the American people.”

    The obvious goal here is to get audiences to only trust Sinclair — and Trump.

    On behalf of the Coalition?

  33. I don’t have a particularly high opinion of News Ltd, but, even so, this is an extraordinary thing to run, particularly given how it resonates with Alan Jones’s stuff about Gillard in a chaff bag.

    I’d say it’s a stuff-up in the editorial department.

  34. “It is hard to see what ABC Life is doing that is different from many other mainstream media offerings,” a former staffer told Guardian Australia. “How to make pickles and get your best friend to make a wedding cake belongs in New Idea, not the ABC.”
    Completely agree. We don’t need a public broadcaster to provide this service. That’s not why we have one.

  35. meher baba,
    You underestimate Dr John Falzon. I don’t know where your googling took you? He ‘orbits on the outer reaches of Labor’s Left’!?!

    Dr John Falzon is a political sociologist, poet and author of The Language of the Unheard (2012). He has been Chief Executive Officer of the St Vincent Paul Society National Council of Australia since 2006. He has written and spoken widely on the structural causes of marginalisation and inequality in Australia and has long been an advocate for a fairer and more equitable society. John has worked in academia, in research and advocacy with NGOs, and in community development in large public housing estates. He was a participant in the 2020 Summit, has served on the ACOSS Board as well as on Government advisory committees such as the Community Response Task Force during the Global Financial Crisis and the Energy White Paper High Level Consultative Committee. He has been a member of the Australian Social Inclusion Board since its inception in 2008 and was appointed in 2012 to the Department of Human Services’ Council on Strategy and Innovation. He was also recently appointed by the Minister for Human Services to help conduct an Independent Review of Centrepay.

    He’s a Social Democrat. Don’t you like them!?!

  36. Exactly:

    Bernard Keane
    ‏Verified account @BernardKeane
    43m43 minutes ago

    If the government now agrees you need a warrant to access health records, why no warrant to access far more invasive metadata records?

  38. C@tmomma: Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t having a go at him personally. He’s undoubtedly a very smart man and a high achiever, but he’s also attended an event celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Russian Revolution and has written a book of poetry called “Communists Like Us”. These sorts of things will inevitably make him a bit of a target: I note that The Australian is already on to him about these things.

    In 1995, when there was a by-election in the seat of Canberra, Labor preselected a candidate who was quite a long way to the left. Her name was Sue Robinson and she was actually an excellent candidate with a strong record of community service. But she had expressed some strongly left-wing views during her life and these were used to target her and the Libs ended up getting a 16 per cent swing and winning the seat.

    Perhaps unfairly, people who haven’t led bland lives can get into trouble when they choose to run for parliament. Past communistic associations – real or even imagined – won’t help any candidate too much.

    If Falzon does get in, he will certainly be a good contributor to the political debate.

  39. Zoidlord

    Although there is much ado about the police needing a warrant the real action is the use of such data for ‘entrepreneurial’ and ‘innovative’ uses ,or spiv inc as prefer to call it..

    From the Australian Digital Health Agency web page
    .
    “The Australian Digital Health Agency is an enabler: we create platforms for developers, entrepreneurs and researchers so that their creativity and businesses can flourish – watch our new video on innovation.”
    https://www.digitalhealth.gov.au/news-and-events/news

  43. Ivana Kovac Kuti‏ @IKKsays

    I reckon there would be a faaaairly strong crossover between those complaining about paying 15c for a bag if they forgot theirs, and those upset at the idea of not being able to negatively gear five investment properties.
    #Coles

  44. ar@9:04am
    I do not believe in so called free markets are for the benefit of everybody. Take TPP for eg. The government told us to trust them for a good deal with TPP but revealed nothing to public. There were some bad reviews about it in OZ press. It was basically done to curtail China and reestablish US dominance. It is benefial for big business anyway. Our Pharmacetical Benefits could have been affected by big pharmas of US. The TPP fight is not fought transparently.
    Trump tariff wars are more transparent.

  45. The SmearStralian has picked up ReefGate.

    Labor is calling on the PM to explain why a small environmental group funded by mining giants received a $444m federal donation. theaustralian.com.au/national-affai… #auspol

  46. meher baba @ #321 Wednesday, August 1st, 2018 – 12:54 pm

    C@tmomma: Don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t having a go at him personally. He’s undoubtedly a very smart man and a high achiever, but he’s also attended an event celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Russian Revolution and has written a book of poetry called “Communists Like Us”. These sorts of things will inevitably make him a bit of a target: I note that The Australian is already on to him about these things.

    In 1995, when there was a by-election in the seat of Canberra, Labor preselected a candidate who was quite a long way to the left. Her name was Sue Robinson and she was actually an excellent candidate with a strong record of community service. But she had expressed some strongly left-wing views during her life and these were used to target her and the Libs ended up getting a 16 per cent swing and winning the seat.

    Perhaps unfairly, people who haven’t led bland lives can get into trouble when they choose to run for parliament. Past communistic associations – real or even imagined – won’t help any candidate too much.

    If Falzon gets in, he will certainly be a good contributor to the political debate.

    The book of poems is a love story set against the background of a political struggle. The Russian Revolution was a key 20th century event for western politics in general.

    Being terrified of mentioning anything slightly “left” is crazy. Rather it needs to be brought in to public discourse so it is less potent as a scare tactic.

    John Falzon seems to have the same facility as Sally McManus in speaking directly and simply about power relationships in society and I think it resonates well.

  49. DTT@9:14am
    “Joe Kennedy, whose pro-German sympathies are well know.”
    I will tell a story about John F Kennedy, the progressive light who life was cut short dramatically. He joined US Navy in 1930s and went to Europe on duty in late 1930s, by the time Hitler and Mussolini were well established as rulers. He was on record saying that Europe needed fascist governments like in Germany and Italy. Google it or I will try to provide the link in the night.

  50. MB

    Falzon, might become Labor’s Lee Rhiannon. (tongue in cheek).

    Rhiannon, the supposed Communist of the Greens, as the msm and both major parties never tired of trotting out in order to smear her in the eyes of the public and, by association all Greens and Greens parliamentarians.

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