Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Vogon Poet @ #205 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:38 am

    Sohar @ #250 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:31 am

    I see the Guardian has shut down comments on the by-elections, but is very happy to promote an ‘Exclusive’ with its friend Frydenberg.

    Just had a peek at Murphy’s tweeter feed, close to half her recent ones are shots at punters who don’t see her brilliance as they should.

    Murphy’s getting worried about Amy Remeikis. When Trumble goes to spend more quality time in the Cayman’s, Murphy loses the juice she gained for colluding with the covering up of the Beetrooter stains. Unlike Trumble, Murphy has a popular and salable challenger.

  2. This makes worrying reading and I can’t help thinking that this would be Dutton’s background. A member of the Qld police service helps a ‘mate’ by revealing his wife’s address after she tried to hide from DV. QPS apparently made no attempt to stop the man from fleeing the country.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-woman-terrified-as-ex-partner-who-threatened-to-strap-bombs-to-their-children-goes-on-run-20180724-p4zta0.html

  3. The US presence at Subic Bay was hugely expensive, aroused anti-US opinion in the Philippines and had no obvious strategic value following the end of the Viet Nam war.

    The Philippines are essentially a dependency of rather than a contributor to US hegemony.

  5. citizen @ #241 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 11:29 am

    What has the ABC done to upset Malcolm now?

    ABC shot down by PM on Iran

    DARREN DAVIDSON, STEPHEN BROOK
    Malcolm Turnbull has considered lodging another formal complaint against the ABC in a new escalation of tensions. (Oz headline)

    Maybe Nuthin. And he just needs a dog to kick.

  6. Josh Taylor‏Verified account @joshgnosis · 20m20 minutes ago

    Malcolm Turnbull Said Super Saturday Was About Him Against Bill Shorten… Until He Lost

  8. I spotted a trend in my late start today.

    lizzie (Block)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:17 am
    Comment #93

    Anthony Smith‏ @Anthony_htimS
    Peter Dutton is at Warner right now.
    At Frank Nicolas reserve.
    His goons made a point of visibly taking my photo and writing down my car Rego.

    doyley (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:19 am
    Comment #118

    Turnbull is the PM simply because Cormann and Dutton support him.

    Greensborough Growler (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:25 am
    Comment #121

    Power brokers that can’t deliver power aren’t worth sixpence. Turnbull has to change tack or he’s a dead duck.

    Golly (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:54 am
    Comment #15

    Turnbull is no longer attempting to hide his contempt for all and sundry, very similar to the disdain shown by Downer.
    Turnbull will be putting in place his exit strategy to be well away when the next federal election is held.

    antonbruckner11 (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:58 am
    Comment #161

    Yes, is it time for Malcolm to finally walk out on a matter of “principle”? Hah, hah. It’s hard to know, because he savours every second he is PM.

    antonbruckner11 (AnonBlock)
    Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:18 am
    Comment #187

    He (Turnbull) loves being PM too much and he will keep thinking that he can con the electorate into voting for him again.

    Turnbull is interested in glory. Power is Dutton’s interest.

  10. NSW – The Roads Minister has denied offshoring jobs from the Roads Agency but someone has leaked a memo from a meeting with offshore IT firms with the roads agency mandating 50% of jobs are overseas. Awks…

  11. Baird might be right in saying that the IPA have only appeared on The Drum three times this year, but what about in previous years? Also, it’s not just the IPA. What about when she has spokespeople on from the Menzies Institute and or the fascists from News Limited?

  12. Anton, Turnbull doesn’t do kamikaze.

    WOT?!

    He might not mean to, but kamikaze is what Trumble does best.
    – Republic? – stand back everyone, let Brian handle this… Boom!
    – Utegate? – it’s ok Erica I’ll prosecute the case… kersplat!
    – CPRS? – BANZAI!
    – GST and everything on the table? kerrunch!
    – States Income Tax? – neeeeeeeeeee-owwwww
    – 2016 election? – CRANG!
    – 2016 election victory speech? – Take Cover!
    – Super Saturday and the Leadership Test? – arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!

    Whatever Trumble does next, it’s a safe bet that it will blow up in his face.

  14. ratsak @ #262 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    Anton, Turnbull doesn’t do kamikaze.

    WOT?!

    He might not mean to, but kamikaze is what Trumble does best.
    – Republic? – stand back everyone, let Brian handle this… Boom!
    – Utegate? – it’s ok Erica I’ll prosecute the case… kersplat!
    – CPRS? – BANZAI!
    – GST and everything on the table? kerrunch!
    – States Income Tax? – neeeeeeeeeee-owwwww
    – 2016 election? – CRANG!
    – 2016 election victory speech? – Take Cover!
    – Super Saturday and the Leadership Test? – arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!

    Whatever Trumble does next, it’s a safe bet that it will blow up in his face.

    I think you’ve been watching too many Batman re-runs!

  15. ratsak

    Don’t confuse kamikaze, which is a very deliberate act of self-destruction, with arrogant, over-bearing bad judgement.

    Turnbull is a master of the latter and only his golden tongue in controlled situations has kept him alive and going.

    If Turnbull is ever going to do anything intentionally fatal to himself, he will be channeling Samson, not Sydney Carton.

  16. Clem Attlee at 12.29 (and others)

    The format of the Drum has changed this year (for the better). It has been extended to 45 minutes and has a much greater emphasis on policy, and not just politics. It often invites a policy expert on to discuss an important issue and the invitees often have some sort of serious connection with the policy being discussed.

    However, the stench of its previous incarnation lives on in all our memories. Bad luck for Baird. She might be able to demonstrate that it is far better, but she has to live with our memories.

  19. ratsak

    I take your point, but I believe that words which have clear and valuable meanings should be allowed to retain those meanings. Even though the results are the same, your comment dishonours genuine kamikaze pilots (:-)

  21. ratsak @ #262 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    Anton, Turnbull doesn’t do kamikaze.

    WOT?!

    He might not mean to, but kamikaze is what Trumble does best.
    – Republic? – stand back everyone, let Brian handle this… Boom!
    – Utegate? – it’s ok Erica I’ll prosecute the case… kersplat!
    – CPRS? – BANZAI!
    – GST and everything on the table? kerrunch!
    – States Income Tax? – neeeeeeeeeee-owwwww
    – 2016 election? – CRANG!
    – 2016 election victory speech? – Take Cover!
    – Super Saturday and the Leadership Test? – arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!

    Whatever Trumble does next, it’s a safe bet that it will blow up in his face.

    I don’t see Turnbull as a kamikaze.

    More like an old stick and string biplane with a sputtering engine just managing to keep above the waves until the engine finally stops and it belly-flops into the water.

  22. The Kouk analyses…

    ‘It’s inequality, stupid

    The super-Saturday by-election results over the weekend presented a clear preference from Australian voters – they don’t like policies that increase inequality in society and tax cuts to business are unfair and expensive, draining scares cash from education, heath and other vital services.’

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/election-results-mean-economy-013232186.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

  23. Blows up in his face but never faces the blow up. Lousy gambler, but never puts the bank on the line. Turnbull will make sure he’s around to enjoy his tax free.
    Its why Turnbull never gains control of his own party. Turnbull is leader in name only.
    Turnbull could handover the keys for a shot as GG. About turns, he’s had lots of practice .
    Turnbull will walk.

  24. TPOF @ #8268 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 12:53 pm

    ratsak

    I take your point, but I believe that words which have clear and valuable meanings should be allowed to retain those meanings. Even though the results are the same, your comment dishonours genuine kamikaze pilots (:-)

    Some years ago, I was peripherally involved in the death of a ex kamikaze pilot from motor neurone disease. He was impressively brave.

  25. Oh look, the Hungarian National is struggling to get the NEG up…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/josh-frydenberg-flags-two-stage-talks-to-get-energy-guarantee-over-the-line

    whodathunkit?

    So he’s going to try the old one-two con on the states is he? Sign up for the mechanism and then you get to agree to whatever joke of a tiny target I can squeeze past Tony and the LNP backbenchers shitting their pants after Longman after.

    I’ve got a tip for ya Josh. The Victorians for a start will be much more concerned about how many seats agreeing to your bullshit will cost them in Melbourne than helping you out. Safest bet for them BY FAR is to tell you to come back for a chat in 2019…

  26. On Qanda tonight..

    Joining Tony Jones: Communications Minister Mitch Fifield, Shadow Finance Minister Jim Chalmers, Guardian Australia Editor Lenore Taylor, communications consultant Parnell Palme McGuinness and people’s panellist Tony Winwood.

  27. ajm @ #271 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    ratsak @ #262 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    Anton, Turnbull doesn’t do kamikaze.

    WOT?!

    He might not mean to, but kamikaze is what Trumble does best.
    – Republic? – stand back everyone, let Brian handle this… Boom!
    – Utegate? – it’s ok Erica I’ll prosecute the case… kersplat!
    – CPRS? – BANZAI!
    – GST and everything on the table? kerrunch!
    – States Income Tax? – neeeeeeeeeee-owwwww
    – 2016 election? – CRANG!
    – 2016 election victory speech? – Take Cover!
    – Super Saturday and the Leadership Test? – arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!

    Whatever Trumble does next, it’s a safe bet that it will blow up in his face.

    I don’t see Turnbull as a kamikaze.

    More like an old stick and string biplane with a sputtering engine just managing to keep above the waves until the engine finally stops and it belly-flops into the water.

    Turnbull has never been a high flyer.

    Just a low flyer with occasional gusts of wind!

  28. An interesting look at the side effect of slashing top tax rates. Creating conditions which encouraged Execs to go for greed re income. Which of course means tough luck for the workers.

    When the Rich Said No to Getting Richer

    A half-century ago, a top automobile executive named George Romney — yes, Mitt’s father — turned down several big annual bonuses. He did so, he told his company’s board, because he believed that no executive should make more than $225,000 a year (which translates into almost $2 million today).

    For more than 30 years now, the United States has lived with a top tax rate less than half as high as in George Romney’s day. And during those same three-plus decades, the pay of affluent Americans has soared. That’s not a coincidence. Corporate executives and others now have much more reason to fight for every last dollar.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/opinion/rich-getting-richer-taxes.html

  30. breaking:

    The Australian Workers’ Union has told 9News a police investigation into leaks over the AWU raids has been referred to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.

    News of the raids on union offices was leaked to the media from the office of Employment Minister Michaelia Cash before they happened, prompting camera crews to be camped outside offices in Sydney and Melbourne as police arrived.

    Ms Cash’s media adviser resigned in the wake of the affair.

    AWU National Secretary Daniel Walton told 9News in a statement, “it is troubling but not surprising that the Australian Federal Police have decided to refer their investigation to the Commonwealth prosecutor”.

    More to come.

  31. On Qanda tonight.. Parnell Palme McGuinness

    Q&A is dumbing down the viewers and oversimplifying the debate. This cannot be the role of the taxpayer-funded broadcaster. Time for it to be scrapped.

    Parnell Palme McGuinness

  32. BREAKING: The Australian Federal Police has referred its investigation into the media leaks from Michaelia Cash's office to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions office for possible criminal charges. https://t.co/Knka14cH8T— Alice Workman (@workmanalice) July 30, 2018

    Amazing how this comes out straight after the by-election

  37. Parnell also worked for Menzies Research Centre and is speaking at the Friedman conference along with Berg, Breheny, Switzer and Plimer… as well as your and my favourite senator, James Patterson.

    When van Onselen questions ‘what exactly is an IPA type’… I would point to Parnell.

  38. Of course Dr Julia Baird would somewhat disingenuously not include someone like her in her IPA count, because she has framed the debate to only refer to actual IPA members.

  39. No, I don’t know what the hell a thought broker is.

    Well, you cant have people freely and recklessly thinking for themselves. It requires some level of management…. or ‘policing’.

  45. It requires some level of management…. or ‘policing’.

    No need for sensation. Brokering is a simple financial transaction. Pay the correct fee and the broker will arrange the thought requested.

  48. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    8m8 minutes ago

    Senator @MathiasCormann says the government’s position is to take company tax cuts to the next election even if the Senate blocks the changes

    😀

  49. Won’t link. The Thought Broker blurb. I’m sure Bludgers will have a pithier description.

    “About us

    Thought Broker is a publicity and communications company specialising in complex ideas and policy. Our connections with influential commentators, think tanks, publishers, academics, authors, policy makers & the media get your message out.

    Our expertise lies in identifying newsworthy angles for business and intellectual content and presenting these in an engaging and accessible manner to new audiences.

  50. Sixteenth Man‏ @maloo325 · 3h3 hours ago
    Replying to @TimWattsMP @dailytelegraph

    Interesting, my daughter white and born in Aus, speaks 4 languages fluently including English. Speaking on phone to French friends recently, in the street, she was pulled up by someone and told she wasn’t welcome in this country. Wish I was there for that.

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